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Characteristics of Storm Surges Along the East Coast of India and the Head of Bay of Bengal

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Characteristics of Storm Surges Along the East Coast of India and the Head of Bay of Bengal Characteristics of storm surges along the east coast of India and the head of Bay of Bengal A thesis submitted to Goa University for the award of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Marine Sciences By Charls Antony Research Guide A. S. Unnikrishnan Goa University Taleigao, Goa February 2018 Statement As required under the University Ordinance OB-9.9, I state that the present thesis entitled ―Characteristics of storm surges along the east coast of India and the head of Bay of Bengal‖ is my original contribution and the same has not been submitted on any previous occasion. The literature related to the problem investigated has been appropriately cited. Due acknowledgements have been made wherever facilities and suggestions have been availed of. Charls Antony CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography, Goa 16 February 2018 Certificate This is to certify that the thesis entitled ―Characteristics of storm surges along the east coast of India and the head of Bay of Bengal‖ submitted by Charls Antony, to the Goa University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, is based on his original studies carried out under my supervision. The thesis or any part therefore has not been previously submitted for any degree or diploma in any university or institution. A. S. Unnikrishnan CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography, Goa 16 February 2018 Acknowledgements Doctoral research life has been an interesting period for me. I have been benefitted from various persons and institutions from the beginning since I joined CSIR- National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Goa, till the completion of this thesis. I convey my gratitude to all of them. I am very much thankful to Dr. A. S. Unnikrishnan for his supervision. A lot has been learned from him as a research supervisor which needs to be carried forward. He is simply the best. Thanks to the constant support from Dr. P. Vethamony (Vice Chancellor‘s nominee), who took the efforts to monitor the progress of my thesis and Dr. M. R. RameshKumar (Co-guide). Thanks to CSIR-NIO and the Director for providing me the opportunity to work in the institute. I acknowledge the High Performance Computing (HPC) facility, Pravah, in the institute, which I used for numerical investigations. Thanks to the Physical Oceanography Division members, particularly, Dr. D. Shankar, Dr. S. G. Aparna, Mr. D. Sundar, Mr. G. S. Michael and Mr. A. Kankonkar for their support from time to time. I acknowledge the interactions with Dr. S. V. Samiksha. I am thankful to the Vice Chancellor, Goa University, faculty members of the Department of Marine Sciences, Prof. G. N. Nayak, Prof. H. B. Menon, Prof. C. U. Rivonker and the office staff, Mr. Yeshwant. Their support has made the academic interactions with the university easy. I am thankful to Dr. Laurent Testut and Dr. P. L. Woodworth who have co- authored in my publications. It was a great honour to collaborate with a top sea level scientist, Dr. P. L. Woodworth. Thanks to Mr. P. L. N. Murty for his help in implementing the storm surge model. Thanks to Dr. Yann Krien for his suggestions for the numerical modeling. He made available the bathymetry data used in the thesis. Thanks to the visiting French scientists in NIO, Dr. Matthieu Lengaigne, Dr. Takeshi Izumo and Dr. Fabien Durand. My friends made my reseach lively and enjoyable. The time spent with them was precious. I extend my sincere gratitude to all of them. iv I am very much thankful to various organisations that made available the data and software used in the thesis. The tide-gauge data along the Indian coast were provided by the Survey of India and the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS). Rest of the tide-gauge data were obtained from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Centre (UHSLC). Altimetry data used in this study were developed, validated and distributed by the CTOH/LEGOS, France. The cyclone data used in the present study were obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). Thanks to the Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) team. GMT was used to draw the maps and graphs. I am thankful to the University Grants Commission (UGC), Govt. India for providing a research fellowship, which enabled me to carry out this research. I recollect the support from my parents, sister and brothers. I dedicate this thesis to them. v Abstract The present thesis investigates characteristics of storm surges and extreme sea levels in the Bay of Bengal using hourly sea-level observations spanning 34 years from tide gauges along the east coast of India and at the head of the Bay of Bengal. An attempt was made to explore the usefulness of satellite altimeter data for storm surge studies. Finally, numerical modelling was also undertaken for studying tide-surge interaction during extreme events. In the present thesis, data from four tide gauges, three along the east coast of India (Chennai, Visakhapatnam and Paradip) and one at the head of the Bay of Bengal (Hiron Point) were used. Characteristics of storm surges, as observed in tide-gauge records, can be briefly described as follows. Frequency histogram of surge series at different locations shows that surge heights are small at Chennai and are large at Hiron Point. The surge distributions are positively skewed, showing, the presence of large positive surges than negative surges. Many of the low-pressure systems cross the northern coast of the Bay. Also, the northern part of the Bay has wide continental shelf, shallow depths and converging coast, which result in large surge heights. The present thesis demonstrates that satellite altimetry can be a useful complementary dataset for the study of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. The magnitudes of surges observed by altimeters are consistent with those recorded in the nearest tide gauges. Though observing storm surges by altimeters rely purely on a chance, the presence of multiple satellite tracks in a region can considerably enhance the chances of capturing the signals of extreme events. Altimeters provide information on cross-shelf variations of storm surges, which is useful for model validation and data assimilation. The highest water levels above mean sea level have the greatest magnitude towards the northern part of the Bay, which decrease towards the southwest. Extreme high waters are a combination of moderate, or even small, surges with large tides at these stations in most of the cases. At interannual time scales, changes in extreme high waters are found to be influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian vi Ocean Dipole. Long-term increasing trends, which are significant, have been observed in the extreme high waters at Hiron Point, at the head of the Bay of Bengal. For the other stations, no significant trends have been observed. The distribution of surge heights above 99th percentile threshold with respect to tidal heights and phases has been used to explore the observed tide-surge interaction patterns. The distribution patterns reveal that the surge heights have a greater dependency on tides at Hiron Point than other stations. At Hiron Point, surges peak more frequently about 4 hours before the high tide. A detailed examination of surges above 99.9th percentile at Hiron Point shows that many of the events have a phase alteration between tide and sea level and also in some cases, the surges are noticed to be modulated by tides. Tide-surge interaction during the Cyclone Aila, which crossed the West Bengal coast in May, 2009, has been investigated using a numerical model. The results show that interaction is significant, with interaction heights attaining 40 cm and above at many locations. When the experiments have repeated for the hypothetical occurrence of the Cyclone Aila at different tidal phases, it is found that surge heights are lower during high tide compared to those during other tidal phases. Further investigation suggests that interaction heights change in proportion to surge height. Increasing surge height is found to result in increased interaction height. Strong dependency of interaction on spring-neap cycle of tide is also noticed with higher interaction heights during spring tide than those during neap tide. vii Contents Statement ................................................................................................................. ii Certificate ............................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................. iv Abstract ................................................................................................................... vi Contents ................................................................................................................ viii List of Figures ........................................................................................................ xii List of Tables ........................................................................................................ xvi Chapter 1 ................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 General ......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Coastal processes and hazards ......................................................................
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