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The Long War in Donbas: Causes and Consequences — Ingmar Oldberg

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The Long War in Donbas: Causes and Consequences — Ingmar Oldberg 1/2020 The Long War in Donbas: Causes and Consequences — Ingmar Oldberg PUBLISHED BY THE SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS | UI.SE Ingmar Oldberg Associate Fellow, UI © 2020 The Swedish Institute of International Affairs Language editing: Andrew Mash Photos: Alexei Alexandrov, TT Content Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 4 Donbas and its people ................................................................................................................... 5 Revolution in Kyiv and the Russian response ................................................................................ 6 The course of the war in Donbas .................................................................................................. 8 Peacemaking efforts .................................................................................................................... 10 Developments in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s republics ................................................. 12 Russian policy vis-à-vis Ukraine and Donbas ............................................................................... 14 Ukrainian policy regarding Russia and the separatists ............................................................... 15 Enter Zelenskyi ............................................................................................................................ 16 Consequences for Ukraine, Russia and the West ....................................................................... 19 © 2020 The Swedish Institute of International Affairs Introduction Research Agency (FOI).2 These have been supplemented by news reports up to the Following several years of waning Western end of 2019. The paper begins by interest in Ukraine, the rise to power of underlining the significance of the conflict Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s in May 2019 and his and defining some terms. attempts to end the war in Donbas have once again focused worldwide attention on The war in Donbas between the Ukrainian the region. This paper first describes Donbas state and separatists controlled by Russia (an abbreviation of Donetskii Bassein) and has been a continuing conflict since March its people, and the events that led to war – 2014, making it the longest armed conflict in the revolution in Kyiv and Russia’s illegal Europe after the Second World War. Russia, annexation of Crimea in 2014. It then however, considers the conflict to be a civil analyses the course of the war in Donbas, war and denies its own involvement. peacemaking efforts and the resulting According to estimates by the United situation in the separatist areas. The aims of Nations, over 13 000 people have been Russia and Ukraine with regard to these killed and about 40 000 injured. Up to areas are analysed, as well as the measures 800 000 people are estimated to have fled taken to further these aims. Finally, west further into Ukraine, while around one Zelenskyi’s peace initiatives and the million have moved to Russia and consequences of the war for all parties are elsewhere. Together, more refugees and scrutinised. internally displaced persons have been created than were created throughout the The paper builds on and summarises the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. The conflict findings of a rich body of research on the zone is home to 200 000 people. The conflict, in particular a well-referenced frontline stretches over 400 km across the report by Dr Sabine Fischer, head of the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and 3 Russian studies group at the German Luhansk. Ukraine has lost one-third of these Institute of International Policy and provinces in the conflict, amounting to 2.8 Security,1 and contributions by Deputy per cent of its total territory. This is an area Research Director Jakob Hedenskog, a inhabited by 3.8 million people, but the Ukraine specialist at the Swedish Defence majority of both provinces remain in Ukraine.4 1 Sabine Fischer, Der Donbas-Konflikt. Widerstreitende 3 Fischer, pp. 9, 30. Krzystof Nieczypor, In the shadow Narrative und Interessen, schwieriger Friedensprozess, of war: Ukraine’s policy towards internally displaced SWP-Studie 3, February 2019, Stiftung Wissenschaft persons, OSW Commentary, 16 Jan. 2019. Casualty und Politik, Berlin. figures are as always contested by warring parties and 2Jakob Hedenskog, Utvecklingen i EU:s östra subject to change. närområde, Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), 4 Thus it is somewhat misleading to talk about the war October 2015. I am indebted to Jakob for his useful in eastern Ukraine. “Easternmost” would be more comments on a draft of this paper. appropriate. © 2020 The Swedish Institute of International Affairs 4 Donbas and its people Second only to Crimea, Donbas had the biggest share of people in Ukraine who The Donbas region, which comprises the identified as Russians (38.5 per cent in provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, accounts 2001). Nonetheless, the majority still for 9 per cent of Ukrainian territory. Its coal regarded themselves as Ukrainians. The mining, steel making and chemical factories latter also spoke Russian and mixed with made it the most highly urbanised and Russians. A regional identity had developed, industrial part of Ukraine. Growing world with a lingering Soviet mentality and a market competition and a lack of technical mixed language, surzhyk. In contrast to development, however, led to regional other Ukrainians, few people travelled to economic decline. The population fell from Western Europe and many travelled to 7.4 million (15 percent of the national total) Russia for work. An increasing number of in 2001 to 6.1 million in 2010 as a result of people in Donetsk, the major city of about out-migration and high levels of mortality. one million inhabitants, identified as Its share of Ukraine’s gross domestic Ukrainians (42.7 percent) in the 1990s. product (GDP) decreased from 16.6 per cent in 2011 to 7.1 in 2014, and the region was Even after Viktor Yanukovych, the leader of subsidised by Kyiv. The region was the Party of Regions who had been characterised by its high demand for energy President of Ukraine since 2010, was and dependence on gas imports from toppled by the EuroMaidan revolution in Russia, as well as its environmental February 2014, a major opinion poll in April problems and many coal mining accidents. showed that only 27.5 per cent of people in Donetsk and 30.3 per cent in Luhansk supported separatism and union with © 2020 The Swedish Institute of International Affairs Russia, and only 30 percent in Donetsk protesters were killed by snipers – believed regarded Yanukovych as still the legitimate to be from the Ukrainian special police president.5 People were more motivated by forces (Berkut), apparently supported by local concerns than by language and pro- advisers from Russia. When an agreement Russian foreign policy issues.6 However, with the opposition parties, sponsored by mistrust of the Western-oriented leadership Western leaders, was rejected by the in Kyiv had been growing since the 2000s, Maidan crowds, President Yanukovych fled promoted by the Party of Regions. Under Kyiv. He was removed from office by the influence of Russian propaganda, many parliament (Verkhovna Rada) on 22 people reacted against the tumultuous February and replaced by an interim EuroMaidan revolution and supported, or at president. A new government dominated by least tolerated, the separatist leaders. Those liberal parties was formed, the association who opposed them fled to the west of agreement with the EU was quickly signed Ukraine.7 and a new president, Petro Poroshenko, was elected in May 2014.9 Revolution in Kyiv and the Russian response Russia’s first response to the Maidan revolution came in Crimea, where ethnic Throughout 2013, Russia had put increasing Russians dominate. In February, the State pressure on Yanukovych to agree to Ukraine Duma authorised the use of military force to joining a Customs Union with Russia, Belarus protect compatriots in Ukraine. After the and Kazakhstan, for instance by imposing a invasion of Crimea had already begun, the de facto trade blockade and threatening to possibility of including foreign territory in stop gas exports during the coming winter. Russia on the basis of a referendum was also As a result, in late November Yanukovych authorised. Large-scale military exercises refused to sign a long agreed Association were held near Ukraine. Following days of Agreement with the European Union (EU). pro-Russia demonstrations in Crimea, as Instead, in December he made a deal with well as protests against the new leadership Russia, in which Russia agreed to fund US$ in Kyiv, on 26–27 February military units 15 billion of Ukrainian debt and reduce its from the Russian Black Sea Fleet bases on gas price, thereby making Ukraine more the peninsula, operating without insignia, dependent on it.8 and special forces and volunteers flown in from Russia took over the Crimean This led to huge demonstrations, which Parliament, other official buildings and the attracted hundreds of thousands, on Maidan airport. The military disarmed the Ukrainian Square in Kyiv in favour of the EU and military forces, which offered no resistance, against Yanukovych and his leadership. The protests were met by growing police violence and early casualties. In the period 18–20 February 2014, around 100 5 Andrew Wilson, Ukraine Crisis; What it means for the Ukraine conflict”, Post-Soviet Affairs, 2018, pp.1–18, West, Yale
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