Changes in Social Cohesion, Citizens’ Satisfaction and Visions of Reintegration
Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, 2019
Funded by the USAID, implemented by the Centre for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development (SeeD), and in partnership with the UN Recovery and Peacebuilding Programme. PARTICIPATORY MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Multi-stakeholder Inspired by numerous collaboration for disciplines continuous improvement
TREND PREDICTIVE REVEALING Advanced analysis Longitudinal to test theories analysis to track of change societal changes ADAPTIVE
Reflects local needs and phenomena AGENDA
METHODOLOGY
CHANGES IN CITIZENS’ SATISFACTION
Human security Service delivery Support for reforms Trust in authorities
REINTEGRATION OF THE NGCA
Future visions Openness to dialogue HOW DO WE MEASURE CIVIC DUTY 5.3 DONETSK & LUHANSK PHENOMENA? OBLASTS
DONETSK & LUHANSK 5.1 CONTACT LINE
CIVIC DUTY
• What happens to Ukraine in the future is not my problem
• There is no point in voting in elections 10 9
8 • I believe that ordinary people like 7 6
me cannot change anything 5
4
3
• I believe politics is for politicians 2
1 RANGE SEA OF AZOV OF SCORES 0 SAMPLING STRATEGY
9,055 RESPONDENTS:
3,325 respondents from Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts
1,811 contact line
3,000 city booster from 15 cities
619 non-governmental controlled area
300 ATO veterans
* For more information on the methodology, please visit: SEA OF AZOV https://scoreforpeace.org/en/use/methodology How secure do residents of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts feel? HUMAN SECURITY (ALL) HUMAN SECURITY DONETSK & LUHANSK 4.7 OBLASTS
DONETSK & LUHANSK 4.1 CONTACT LINE
• Economic (4.9)
• Political (4.8)
• Health (4.6)
• Environmental (4.3) 10 9
8 • Personal (4.3) 7 6
5
4
3
2
1 RANGE SEA OF AZOV OF SCORES 0 HUMAN SECURITY
GCA 2018 GCA 2019 NGCA 2019
10
9
8 48% feel they can’t 70% think public authorities are Almost 65% do not feel meet their family’s not open to hear points of view confident about police 7 nutritional needs different from their own protection 6
5
4
3
2 1 4.3 4.9 3.8 4.8 3.5 4.3 4.3 3.0 0 Economic security Political security Personal security HUMAN SECURITY
GCA 2018 GCA 2019
10
9
8 49% are not satisfied with the 66% think they do not have quality of air and sufficient access to specialized 7 63% are concerned about medical services environmental risks 6
5
4
3
2 1 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.3 0 Health security Environmental security To what extent are residents of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts satisfied with services? SATISFACTION WITH MOST SATISFACTION WITH PUBLIC 5.8 DONETSK SERVICES PUBLIC SERVICES IS GROWING OBLAST
LUHANSK 5.9 OBLAST
DONETSK 5.8 & LUHANSK • Welfare payments (6.8) +1.6 OBLASTS
• Basic schooling (6.7) +1.0
LUHANSK • Administrative services (6.4) +0.3 6.1 OBLAST NGCA
DONETSK 10 • Health care (5.4) +1.1 6.7 OBLAST NGCA 9
8 • Justice services (5.2) +0.8 7 6
5 • Higher education (4.7) -0.8 4 3
2
1 RANGE OF SCORES 0 SEA OF AZOV 2018 2019 SATISFACTION WITH HIGHER 4.9 DONETSK 4.7 3.9 EDUCATION IS DECREASING OBLAST
LUHANSK 4.5 OBLAST
DONETSK 4.7 & LUHANSK OBLASTS
The extent to which one is satisfied with LUHANSK the provision of higher education services. 6.0 OBLAST NGCA
DONETSK 10 7.0 OBLAST NGCA 9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 RANGE OF SCORES 0 SEA OF AZOV SATISFACTION WITH PUBLIC SERVICES
GCA 2018 GCA 2019 NGCA 2019
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2 1 5.6 4.7 6.5 4.4 5.2 5.8 4.3 5.4 5.2 6.1 6.4 5.9 5.7 6.7 7.0 5.2 6.8 6.7 0 Higher Justice Health Administrative Basic Welfare education services care services schooling payments SATISFACTION WITH INFRASTRUCTURE 6.0 DONETSK SERVICES INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES & OBLAST INTERNET ACCESS IS INCREASING LUHANSK 5.1 OBLAST
DONETSK 5.7 & LUHANSK OBLASTS
• Internet access (7.4)
• Provision of utilities (6.2) +0.5 LUHANSK 5.2 OBLAST NGCA
• Quality of public transport (6.2) +0.6 DONETSK 10 6.5 OBLAST NGCA 9
8
• Quality of roads (4.8) +1.5 7
6
5
4
3
2
1 RANGE OF SCORES 0 SEA OF AZOV QUALITY OF ROADS PROVISION OF UTILITIES DONETSK DONETSK 5.1 OBLAST 6.4 OBLAST
LUHANSK LUHANSK 3.9 OBLAST 5.9 OBLAST
DONETSK DONETSK 4.8 & LUHANSK 6.2 & LUHANSK OBLASTS OBLASTS
LUHANSK LUHANSK 4.2 OBLAST NGCA 4.0 OBLAST NGCA
DONETSK 10 DONETSK 10 5.9 OBLAST NGCA 5.9 OBLAST NGCA 9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1 RANGE RANGE OF SCORES 0 OF SCORES 0 SEA OF AZOV SEA OF AZOV SATISFACTION WITH PUBLIC SERVICES
GCA 2018 GCA 2019 NGCA 2019
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2 1 3.3 4.8 5.1 5.6 6.2 6.3 5.7 6.2 5.0 7.4 7.7 0 Quality Quality of public Provision Internet of roads transport of utilities access SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SATISFACTION WITH ALL SERVICES IN GCA
Increasing satisfaction Decreasing satisfaction with… with…
Welfare payments 6.8 (+1.6) Higher education 4.7 (-0.8)
Quality of roads 4.8 (+1.5)
Health care 5.4 (+1.1)
Basic schooling 6.7 (+1) Do residents of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts support reforms? 2018 2019 SCEPTICISM ABOUT 5.8 DONETSK & LUHANSK 6.9 5.8 REFORMS OBLASTS
DONETSK & LUHANSK 6.1 CONTACT LINE
The degree to which one feels sceptical about the reform process and believes that they will only benefit the elite. 10
9
8
7
6
5
4 People between 18–35 3 years old are less sceptical 2 1 and show higher support RANGE for reforms SEA OF AZOV OF SCORES 0 SUPPORT FOR 4.7 DONETSK & LUHANSK DECENTRALIZATION REFORM OBLASTS
DONETSK & LUHANSK 4.2 CONTACT LINE
The extent to which one believes that decentralization reform is viable, will lead to positive changes and improve accountability. 10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 RANGE SEA OF AZOV OF SCORES 0 SUPPORT FOR 4.0 DONETSK & LUHANSK HEALTH REFORM OBLASTS
DONETSK & LUHANSK 3.5 CONTACT LINE
The extent to which one believes that health reform is viable, effective and improves the quality of medical services. 10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 RANGE SEA OF AZOV OF SCORES 0 HEALTH REFORM 4.9 DONETSK & LUHANSK AWARENESS OBLASTS
4.7 DONETSK & LUHANSK • You can freely choose a family CONTACT LINE TRUE doctor
• There is a list of medication TRUE that you can get for free
• Not all primary medical FALSE services are free for patients 10
9 • You can change a family doctor 8 FALSE 7
if central hospitals approve 6 request 5 4
3 • Emergency care is 50% 2 FALSE 1 RANGE financed by the state and 50% SEA OF AZOV OF SCORES 0 by the patient Do residents of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts trust institutions? TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS IS GROWING DONETSK 4.5 & LUHANSK OBLASTS GCA 2018 GCA 2019
10
9
8 +0.9 +1.2 +0.2 +2.5
7
6
5
4
3
2 1 4.5 5.4 3.8 5.0 4.0 4.2 1.7 4.2 0 Non-governmental Military Local institutions Central institutions organizations TRUST IN CENTRAL TRUST IN PRESIDENT 5.7 DONETSK INSTITUTIONS OBLAST
LUHANSK 5.7 OBLAST
Fully trust + Somewhat trust DONETSK 5.7 & LUHANSK OBLASTS
President 61% Approx. 10% in 2018 Verkhovna Rada 34 %
10 Cabinet of Ministers 33% 9 8
7
6 Courts 25% 5 4
3
2
1 RANGE OF SCORES 0 SEA OF AZOV TRUST IN LOCAL TRUST IN MAYOR 4.9 DONETSK INSTITUTIONS OBLAST
LUHANSK 3.7 OBLAST
Fully trust + Somewhat trust DONETSK 4.6 & LUHANSK OBLASTS Mayor or/and village/town head 47% The village/town administration 43% Oblast state 10 31% 9 administration 8 7
6
5
4
3
2
1 RANGE OF SCORES 0 SEA OF AZOV PEOPLE FEEL NEGLECTED AUTHORITIES CARE 2.9 DONETSK & LUHANSK BY AUTHORITIES OBLASTS
DONETSK & LUHANSK 2.1 CONTACT LINE
The degree to which one feels that Ukrainian authorities care for the well-being of all Ukrainian citizens and are open to hear different views. 10 9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 RANGE SEA OF AZOV OF SCORES 0 Future visions of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts THE NGCA AS PART NGCA REINTEGRATION 6.2 DONETSK & LUHANSK OF UKRAINE OBLASTS
DONETSK & LUHANSK 6.2 CONTACT LINE
The extent to which people want the NGCA to remain a part of Ukraine either with 4.4 LUHANSK the same status as all other oblasts or with OBLAST NGCA a special autonomy status. 10 9
DONETSK 8 4.5 OBLAST NGCA 7
6
5
4
3
2
1 RANGE SEA OF AZOV OF SCORES 0 THE NGCA NOT PART NGCA SEPARATION 2.1 DONETSK & LUHANSK OF UKRAINE OBLASTS
DONETSK & LUHANSK 2.0 CONTACT LINE
The extent to which people want the NGCA to separate from Ukraine to become a part 5.0 LUHANSK of Russia or internationally recognized OBLAST NGCA independent countries. 10 9
DONETSK 8 5.4 OBLAST NGCA 7
6
5
4
3
2
1 RANGE SEA OF AZOV OF SCORES 0 DIFFERENT VISIONS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE NGCA
GCA 2019 NGCA 2019
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 7.3 3.8 5.0 5.1 2.2 4.8 2.0 5.5 1.1 1.2 0 Remain part of Remain part of Become Become part of the Just maintain the Ukraine, with the Ukraine, with special internationally Russian Federation current situation same legal status like autonomy status recognized all other oblasts independent coutries HOW UKRAINIANS GROUP OTHERS
People from Pro-Russia oriented Ukrainian Western Ukraine people nationalists
People from Pro-EU oriented People who support Eastern Ukraine people the NGCA separation
People living in the NGCA DO YOU THINK THAT MEMBERS OF THE FOLLOWING No Maybe Yes GROUPS WOULD HEAR YOUR ARGUMENTS AND BE READY TO DISCUSS? GCA 2019 NGCA 2019
Ukrainian nationalists 61% 34% 5% 81% 18% 1%
People who support separation of the NGCA 47% 46% 7% 33% 47% 20%
Pro-Russia oriented people 40% 50% 10% 40% 44% 16%
People from Western Ukraine 39 % 51% 10% 71% 27% 2%
Pro-EU oriented people 37% 52 % 11% 52% 44% 4%
People living in the NGCA 35% 53% 12% People from Eastern Ukraine 23% 52% 25% 40% 47% 13 % Thank you for your attention scoreforpeace.org seedsofpeace.eu