Foreign Military Studies Office OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT WATCH May | 2012 The Journal of the United States Army Volume 2 | Issue 5 for Foreign News & Perspectives For over 25 years, the Foreign IN THIS ISSUE Military Studies Office (FMSO) IRAN MEXICO 3 The Genesis of Iran’s Space 29 Female Sicarias Working at the at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, Program Service of Los Zetas has conducted open source 5 Khamenei Permits Facebook? 31 Narcos Utilize Snipers in Attacks 7 Protests Highlight Labor Discord on Soldiers and Marines research on foreign perspectives in Iran COLOMBIA TURKEY 33 Ratcheting Violence in Bogota of defense and security issues, 8 Turkish Chief of the General CHINA Staff visits U.S. Strategic Military 35 National Newspaper Highlights emphasizing those topics that are Bases Finding: Youth Will Not Fight 10 Did Turkey Veto Israel’s For Taiwan understudied or unconsidered. Participation in NATO Summit? 37 Taiwanese Concerned About FMSO’s Operational Environment 12 Media-Military Relations: Media Freedom Training Journalists for War 39 Troubles Loom Large for KMT Watch provides translated Reporting Party, Taiwan EGYPT, SYRIA, YEMEN 40 China’s Military Ties with selections and analysis from a 14 Egyptian Media Reacts to US Australia to Deepen Military Training 41 Brief Analysis on the diverse range of foreign articles 16 Syria’s Eager Lion? Environment of Investment 18 Is Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar’s Gamble in the Mining Industry in and other media that our analysts Paying Off? Afghanistan SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 44 Russia and China Deepen and expert contributors believe 21 African Troops for African Crises Military Cooperation will give military and security 24 Where to Watch in Africa: KOREA Mauritania’s Attempts to 46 Putin’s Pivot to Asia experts an added dimension to Launch an Arab Spring Coup BALKANS d’Etat 48 Islamic Transversal in the their critical thinking about the 25 Perspectives from Francophone Balkans? Africa: Does Hollande’s Election CENTRAL ASIA Operational Environment. Signal Change in France’s Africa 51 Kazakhstan’s Defense Industry Policy? Materials, outside of the original foreign press article, under copyright have 52 An Exercise in Uzbekistan? not been used. All articles published in the Operational Environment Watch are 27 Governor: Terrorists will Make not provided in full, and were originally published in foreign (non-US) media. For North Nigeria Uninhabitable in 54 Perception in Kyrgyzstan questions or original articles, contact FMSO at usarmy.leavenworth.tradoc.mbx.fmso- Five Years RUSSIA [email protected]. The Operational Environment Watch is archived, and available at http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil. SOUTHEAST ASIA 55 Russian Blackwater FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics to these articles to 28 Spread of Meth and Ecstasy in 57 Chechen Stability conform to organizational standards. Academic conventions, source referencing, and Southeast Asia 58 Pro-Russian Defense Minister citation style are those of the author. in Kiev? The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official 60 Protecting the Skies over Minsk policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. 2 Regional Analysts and Expert Contributors Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa Robert Feldman, Jason Warner Middle East Lucas Winter, Michael Rubin WL KNO EDGE NCE ISM SA ER Turkey Karen Kaya IS E A TE N K N O K C E China, Korea Cindy Hurst, Ruoxi Du, Lianna Faruolo, Youngjun Kim N N T N I S India, Southeast Asia Ivan Welch E S J E N A 3 V H A Mexico Tony Scheidel, Brenda Fiegel, Cynthia Gonzalez A N H Z И O E P South America Geoff Demarest W O I T E D N E Z I A Balkans Sandra King-Savic M I C O N O C C Central Asia Matthew Stein, Chuck Bartles I O T N S H O E L C A I N M Z E N O Russia, Eastern Europe Ray Finch, Scott McIntosh T Layout/Graphics Aaron Perez Editors Ray Finch, Harry Orenstein, Thomas Wilhelm FMSO Contact [email protected] Features 5 Khamenei Permits Facebook? “Pesakh-e hazarat-e Ayatollah Khamene‘i dar baraye estifadeh az facebook” (“Answer of His Excellency Ayatollah Khamenei About the Use of Facebook,” Shafaqna.com. 29 April 2012 Facebook was a prominent component of forced confessions, with the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary courts accusing the United States of using Facebook to sow sedition 10 Did Turkey Veto Israel’s Participation in NATO Summit? “Türkiye’den İsrail’e Chicago Vetosu (Turkey Vetoes Israel’s Presence at Chicago Meeting),” Stargazete.com, April 23, 2012 “….Turkey should not carry its bilateral problems with Israel into NATO.” 14 Egyptian Media Reacts to US Military Training “Ramih: America Wants to Eliminate Islam,” al-Wafd (Egypt) Both articles present the viewpoints of strategic analysts, notable for the divergence in their interpretations both of the cause and consequence of this controversy 27 Governor: Terrorists will Make North Nigeria Uninhabitable in Five Years “Nigeria: North Will Be Inhabitable in Five Years – Shettima” Daily Trust (Nigeria), 11 May 2012 Everyone has known that northern Nigeria is a precarious spot: few guessed that even the governor of one of its states would claim that profound insecurity there would render it uninhabitable within several years. 37 Taiwanese Concerned About Media Freedom “Academics highlight threats to media freedom,” Taipei Times, 4 May 2012 “Academics and journalists yesterday expressed concern about the threats to Taiwanese media of an increasing concentration of ownership and Chinese influence.” 40 China’s Military Ties with Australia to Deepen Military Ties with Australia to Deepen, China Daily, May 14, 2012 China would make joint efforts with the country to strengthen exchanges at high military levels and deepen pragmatic cooperation between the two militaries. IRAN 3 FMSO Commentary: On April 27, Fars News Agency—an Iranian news The Genesis of Iran’s Space Program service close to the Supreme Leader and 27 April 2012 security services—published a lengthy Source: “Bimariha-ye Sa‘ab al-‘Alaj’ Peyamad-i Istiqrar Sepir Mushaki bar Neselha-ye interview with Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the ayandeh Turkiye” (“Chronic Diseases [and] the Impact of the Missile Shield on Future commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Generations of Turkey,” Fars News Agency. 27 April 2012. http://www.farsnews.com/newstext. Guard Corps Aerospace Command, php?nn=13910205000746 excerpts of which are translated below. Western press reports initially focused upon the title of the interview, which highlighted Hajizadeh’s accusations that the new U.S. radar facility in Turkey would sicken children. While such accusations are sure to be picked up by the opposition in Turkey and Europe and will become a standard part of Iran’s information operations campaign, Hajizadeh’s reflections regarding Iran’s missile program and domestic defense industry are more important. Commander of the Aerospace Division of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Underlying Hajizadeh’s remarks Amir Ali Hajizadeh, by PressTV via http://www.presstv.ir/detail/188265.html are both Iranian defiance and overconfidence. Hajizadeh is fatalistic and embraces a view widespread among veterans of the Iran-Iraq War in both Chronic Diseases [and] the Impact the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of the Missile Shield on Future and among Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s hardline faction, which Generations of Turkey sees strength rising from adversity. Suggestions that Iran can cripple U.S. aircraft carriers imply that Iranian slamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Commander Brigadier General understandings of American redlines Amir Ali Hajizadeh, on the occasion of the 33nd anniversary of the Statute of the imposed by Operation Praying Mantis in IRevolutionary Guards, in a detailed conversation with the defense office of Fars News 1988 have almost completely evaporated. Agency, went over the actions of his agency over the past years, touching on issues such as the missile program, decoding the American drone, countering threats around the country, Hajizadeh’s confidence also reflects and the American missile defense shield… Iran’s growing indigenous arms industry. Hajizadeh said that initially, eight missiles and not more than 30 rockets were imported Whether Iran received assistance from into the country. Martyr Hassan Tehrani Moqaddam, the founder of Islamic Republic’s North Korea, Russia, or other powers in domestic missile program, took two of the first eight imported missiles and reverse the past, the fact remains that Iran has engineered them. It was a difficult decision, but he had the courage to do so. Hajizadeh acquired a robust missile program and added, this work began in indigenous production and today had branched out into both that Iranian technicians have reverse marine and land-based missiles. The head of the IRGC Aerospace Force said that in the engineered missiles and radar systems, Islamic Republic of Iran, and especially the IRGC, we all learned how to turn threats into and, if believed, may also be able to opportunities... Hajizadeh said, our defensive systems were slow, and these they sanctioned harvest technology and intelligence but from the day these sanctions began, our work began in the field. from the U.S. drone downed over Iran in December 2011. He continued, today we’re active in this field despite sanctions. We hear from the Leader that we must cut our dependence on oil, and he noted that each year we should name our While some Western officials achievements in the economic jihad. He continued, the current sanctions present an even remain optimistic about the prospect greater opportunity. This is doable. We have become a strong and powerful country. for a breakthrough in nuclear talks, Today, our units are so numerous that I, despite several visits on a weekly basis, do not IRAN 4 Continued: Chronic Diseases [and] the Impact of the Missile Shield on Future Generations of Turkey have the time to inspect them all..