Foreign Military Studies Office OE WATCH FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT IN THIS ISSUE IRAN KOREA 3 Inside the Iranian Foreign Service 38 North Korean Cyber Denier 5 Iran Expands Gender Segregation AFGHANISTAN in Universities 40 Assassination of Influential TURKEY Figures 7 Turkish Jet Downed by Syria CENTRAL ASIA Brings the Syrian Crisis into NATO 42 All is Not Quiet on the Kazakh 9 Turkey Plans to Buy Long Range Front Missiles after Syria Downing of 44 Peace Mission 2012 Turkish Jet 45 Uzbekistan Leaves the CSTO 10 Tension between Turkey and Again Russia following the Syrian Jet Crisis 47 Russia’s Presence in Tajikistan LIBYA, JORDAN, YEMEN RUSSIA 11 Unrest Continues in Southeast 48 Russia is Working to Keep Its Libya Military Base in Tajikistan for Another 10 Years at Same Cost; 13 Must Jordan Pick Sides? Calls Tajikistan Unreasonable 15 Iranian Influence Grows in Yemen 50 Russian Oil Giant Concludes $120 DRC, MALI, COTE D’IVOIRE, Million Energy Deal with Iraq LIBERIA 52 Poll: Russian Bloggers Believe 17 Mutiny in the DRC the West is behind Middle 19 One Rebel Group Chases Out East Instability, and Aims to Another in Mali Destabilize Russia 21 Looming Insecurity on the 54 A New Russian Strategic Liberia-Cote d’Ivoire Border Bomber? 23 Liberia Not Ready to Cut 56 Naval Staff Relocation? AFRICOM Ties 58 Loyal Guardians of the State INDIA UKRAINE 25 India: Arming for the Future 61 “Something’s got to give”: MEXICO Ukraine’s Defense Minister on Financing Military Reform 28 Corruption: Part of the Mexican Culture? 30 The Visible and Invisible Victims of the Calderón Administration COLOMBIA 31 Lugo Rhymes with Hugo TAIWAN, CHINA 33 Taiwan Observer Notes Light Sentencing for Indicted Spies 34 ROC Military and Confidential Information Inside the North Korean 35 China Said to be Building Transportation Infrastructure at Iranian Foreign Cyber Denier DPRK Border Service 36 China Begins Stockpiling Rare Earth Elements For over 25 years, the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, has OE Watch conducted open source research Foreign News & Perspectives of the on foreign perspectives of defense Operational Environment and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied Volume 2 | Issue 7 July | 2012 or unconsidered. FMSO’s Operational Environment Regional Analysts and Watch provides translated Expert Contributors selections and analysis from a Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa Robert Feldman, Jason diverse range of foreign articles and Warner Middle East Lucas Winter, Michael other media that our analysts and Rubin, Ahmad Majidayr Turkey Karen Kaya expert contributors believe will give China, Korea Cindy Hurst, Youngjun Kim, Tim Thomas, Lianna military and security professionals Faruolo an added dimension to their critical India, Southeast Asia Ivan Welch Mexico, South America Tony Scheidel, Brenda thinking about the Operational Fiegel, Cynthia Gonzalez, Geoff Demarest Environment. Balkans Sandra King-Savic Materials, outside of the original foreign press article, Central Asia Matthew Stein, Chuck Bartles under copyright have not been used. All articles Russia, Eastern Europe Ray Finch, Scott McIntosh, published in the Operational Environment Watch are not Anna Borshchevskaya provided in full, and were originally published in foreign Design Editor Aaron Perez (non-US) media. For questions or original articles, contact Editors Ray Finch, Harry Oren- FMSO at usarmy.leavenworth.tradoc.mbx.fmso-web@ stein, Thomas Wilhelm mail.mil. The Operational Environment Watch is archived, FMSO Contact usarmy.leavenworth.tradoc. and available at [email protected] http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil. FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics to these articles to conform to organizational standards. WL KNO EDGE NCE ISM Academic conventions, source referencing, and citation SA ER IS E A TE style are those of the author. N K N O K C E N The views expressed are those of the author and N T N I do not represent the official policy or position of the S E S J E N Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the A 3 V H A U.S. government. A N H Z И O E P W O I T E D N E Z I A M I C O N O C C I O T N S H O E L C A I N M Z E N O T 2 Features 3 Inside the Iranian Foreign Service Pesakhha-ye Qashqavi beh Akhrin Vaza’it Diplomat-e Iran dar Brazil, Nahva Guzinesh Diplomatha va Ta’dad Diplomatha-ye Penihandeh Shoda” (“Answers of Qashqavi to the latest status of the Iranian Diplomat in Brazil, How Diplomats are Chosen, and Diplomats who have Defected,”) Khabaronline.com. 8 July 2012 The days of the Foreign Ministry being a bastion for more reform-oriented factions is over. 15 Iranian Influence Grows in Yemen Fears of Regional and International Escalation in Yemen Hinder a Political Settlement” (al-Quds al-Arabi) Since the implementation of the Saudi-sponsored plan to transition away from the rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh earlier this year, Iranian influence is thought to have increased in Yemen, especially at the grassroots level 21 Looming Insecurity on the Liberia-Cote d’Ivoire Border A. Abbas Dulleh, “Liberia: Fear Mounts,” New Democrat (Monrovia), 13 July 2012 The Liberia-Cote d’Ivoire border is showing itself to be an emerging spot of insecurity in an already increasingly unstable West African region. 80 Global Production of Rare Earth Oxides, 70 Total 1950 - 2000 60 50 40 China oduction, kt 30 Pr 20 USA 36 China Begins Stockpiling Rare Earth Elements 10 Other 0 Eric Min, “China Starts Stockpiling Rare Earths,” Guangzhou Business China Online, July 10, 2012 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Monazite-placer Mountain Pass era Chinese …the Chinese government was awarding state funds for interest-free loans for the strategic buying of heavy rare earth oxides to ? era era stockpile because concerns that reserve are running low 38 North Korean Cyber Denier Song Yo’ng-so’k, “Fabricated Act Borne by Chronic Bad Habit,” Rodong Sinmun, 9 June 2012 North Korea may appear to be technologically primitive, but it has focused resources into developing offensive cyber weapons 40 Assassination of Influential Figures Nokta hai penhaan roydad-s Samangan” (“Hidden Points of Samangan Incident,”) Mandagar Daily, July 16, 2012 Moreover, the recent assassinations could increase resentment and anxiety among Northern Alliance leaders who are worried about political deals with the Taliban IRAN 3 OE Watch Commentary: In recent months the Iranian Foreign Ministry has Inside the Iranian Foreign Service been rocked by accusations of personal 8 July 2012 misconduct by Iranian diplomats serving Source: “Pesakhha-ye Qashqavi beh Akhrin Vaza’it Diplomat-e Iran dar Brazil, Nahva Guzinesh abroad. First, in April 2012, Brazilian Diplomatha va Ta’dad Diplomatha-ye Penihandeh Shoda” (“Answers of Qashqavi to the latest authorities accused an Iranian diplomat status of the Iranian Diplomat in Brazil, How Diplomats are Chosen, and Diplomats who have of fondling four young girls in a public Defected,”) Khabaronline.com. 8 July 2012.http://www.khabaronline.ir/text/detail/226251/politics/ swimming pool in the Brazilian capital diplomacy of Brasilia. Then, in July, German authorities accused an Iranian diplomat stationed in Frankfurt, Germany, of lewd Iran Foreign Minister conduct toward a 10-year-old girl. Hassan Qashqavi, via www. mfa.gov.ir Against this backdrop, Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Qashqavi granted an interview to the state news agency Khabar Online, answering a number of questions regarding the specific allegations. While that is the stuff of fleeting headlines, far more interesting to analysts will be his dissection of the personnel within the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Since the end of the Iran- پاسخ های قشقاوی به آخرین وضعیت دیپلمات ایران در Iraq War, the influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) برزیل، نحوه گزینش دیپلمات ها و تعداد دیپلمات های and its component paramilitary, the Basij, has been growing in Iranian پناهنده شده society. The representation and strength of IRGC veterans in the Iranian bureaucracy has accelerated throughout (Answers of Qashqavi to…how the administration of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the first president of Iran Diplomats are Chosen) to arise from a military rather than clerical background. ou have worked in the Foreign Ministry for several years and have had various responsibilities. What is the Foreign Ministry selection mechanism for diplomats? The extent of Basiji and war veteran Y Because of the sensitivity of the Foreign Ministry’s work, the ministry has one penetration of the Iranian Foreign of the strictest selection procedures. Because the majority of managers and staff of the Ministry will manifest itself in a number former regime were excluded from the Foreign Ministry, and the Foreign Ministry was of ways. Already the ambassadorships to supposed to be a new force, from the beginning until today, placement in the Ministry the countries Iranian leaders consider was a careful process. Sometimes it takes months to examine individuals on the basis of most important—Lebanon, Syria, personal status and family… The same applies even to international relations graduates at Afghanistan, and Iraq—go to members the university under the supervision of the Ministry. of the Qods Force, the IRGC’s elite unit charged with export of revolution. That The employees and personnel of the ministry number 4,000, if one counts both official Basijis and war veterans now penetrate and unofficial personal and both administrative and political cadres in tiers of the most the Foreign Ministry may obviate the devoted. Sixty-seven are children of martyrs, and there are 479 wounded veterans, and traditional wire diagram of ministry 1,400 veterans in general. Eighty percent of the veterans have a university degree, either decision making in favor of the informal a Bachelors’ degree or higher.