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Istanbul Technical University Eurasia Institute of Earth ISTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY ! EURASIA INSTITUTE OF EARTH SCIENCES ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION TYPES IN MARMARA REGION (NW TURKEY) AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION Ph.D. THESIS Hakkı BALTACI Department of Climate and Marine Sciences Earth System Science Programme DECEMBER 2015 ISTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY ! EURASIA INSTITUTE OF EARTH SCIENCES ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION TYPES IN MARMARA REGION (NW TURKEY) AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION Ph.D. THESIS Hakkı BALTACI (601102003) Department of Climate and Marine Sciences Earth System Science Programme Thesis Advisor: Prof. Dr. Tayfun KINDAP DECEMBER 2015 İSTANBUL TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ ! AVRASYA YER BİLİMLERİ ENSTİTÜSÜ MARMARA BÖLGESİNDEKİ ATMOSFERİK SİRKÜLASYON PATERNLERİ VE YAĞIŞ ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ DOKTORA TEZİ Hakkı BALTACI (601102003) İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim Dalı Yer Sistem Bilimi Programı Tez Danışmanı: Prof. Dr. Tayfun KINDAP ARALIK 2015 I dedicate this thesis to my family, vii viii FOREWORD This study was conducted at Istanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences over a period of time of four years from 2011 to 2015. The research presented and reported in this thesis contains not only comprehensive scientific results but also imprints of labor, perseverance and passion for science. This thesis owes thanks to many people for making the time working on my Ph.D. not an excruciating experience. First of all, I owe great thanks to my supervisor Prof. Tayfun KINDAP for his inspiring guidance that has benefited me greatly with my growth into a mature and capable young scientist. I would like to thank Prof. Mehmet Karaca, Prof. Alper Ünal and Prof. Mete Tayanç for their academic support and constant encouragement in this work. I would like to thank all the committee members for their recommendations. I also would like to thank to all my professors that i have attended their lectures during my bachelor, masters and PhD studies at ITU. It was a big chance to meet Assist. Prof. Ozan Mert Göktürk. Many thanks to him for being patient to me and sharing his experience, time and knowledge. I’m grateful to my family, especially to my parents Necatdin and Suna BALTACI for their everlasting support and understanding, and my sisters and my brother for their support and joy. Finally, I would like to thank my wife, Feyza Baltacı, who encouraged and supported me to finish this journey. I hope my daughters Dilara and Sedef will do better than her parents in life and I wish they will have a good, successful life. December 2015 Hakkı BALTACI ix x TABLE OF CONTENTS Page FOREWORD ............................................................................................................. ix ! TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................... xi ! ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................. xiii! LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................... xv ! LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................... xvii! SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. xxi! ÖZET…… .............................................................................................................. xxiii! 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1! 1.1 Motivation .......................................................................................................... 2 1.1 Purpose ............................................................................................................... 4! 2. STUDY BASIN ....................................................................................................... 5! 2.1 Precipitation Climate of the Marmara Region ................................................... 5! 2.2 General Overview to Classification Methods .................................................... 7! 2.3 Determining the CTs: Lamb Weather Types Methodology ............................... 8! 2.4 Teleconnection Patterns ................................................................................... 11 2.5 Relation of CTs with Precipitation ................................................................... 11! 3. ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION TYPES IN MARMARA REGION ........ 13! 3.1 Synoptic Analysis of CTs Affecting Marmara Region .................................... 13 3.2 Frequency of CTs and Their Significance with Respect to Large-Scale Circulation .............................................................................................................. 15! 3.2.1 Annual averages ........................................................................................ 15! 3.2.2 December, january, february ..................................................................... 16! 3.2.3 June, july, august ....................................................................................... 17! 3.2.4 Fall and spring ........................................................................................... 17! 3.3 Relationship between CTs and Precipitation .................................................... 17 3.3.1 Daily potentials ......................................................................................... 17 3.3.1.1 Wet atmospheric CTs ......................................................................... 17! 3.3.1.2 The sea-effect mechanism .................................................................. 24 3.3.1.3 Wet western Marmara ........................................................................ 26! 3.3.2 Contrbutions to precipitation .................................................................... 27 3.3.2.1 Regional averages .............................................................................. 27 3.3.2.2 East-west contrast ............................................................................... 28 4. TEMPORAL VARIATIONS IN THE FREQUENCY AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIALS OF ATMOSPHERIC CTS IN MARMARA REGION AND ASSOCIATION WITH TELECONNECTION PATTERNS .................................................... 29! 4.1 Temporal Rainfall Distribution ........................................................................ 29! 4.2 Trends and Moisture flux Calculations ............................................................ 30 4.2.1 Sequential Mann-Kendall test ................................................................... 30! 4.2.2 Influence of moisture flux ......................................................................... 31! 4.3 Trends in CT Frequencies ................................................................................ 32! xi 4.4 Trends in Precipitation Potentials of CTs ......................................................... 35! 4.5 Temporal Behaviour of Winter (DJF) Rainfall during NE Cases: Moisture Flux Transport Mechanism ............................................................................................. 35! 4.6 Association with Teleconnection Patterns ........................................................ 39! 5. THE INFLUENCE OF ATMOSPHERIC CTS ON REGIONAL PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION IN MARMARA .............................................. 43! 5.1 Regional Patterns of Precipitation in Marmara ................................................ 43! 5.2 Atmospheric Circulation Classifications .......................................................... 46! 5.3 Precipitation Occurrence and Amount ............................................................. 49! 5.4 Spatial Variability of Precipitation ................................................................... 50! 5.5 Rainfall Magnitude Categories ......................................................................... 51! 6. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................... 53! 6.1 Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................... 53! 6.1.1 Atmospheric CTs and their influence on precipitation ............................. 53! 6.1.2 Temporal behaviour of atmospheric CTs and their association with TPs . 54 6.1.3 Influence of CTs on regional patterns of precipitation ............................. 55! REFERENCES ......................................................................................................... 59 CURRICULUM VITAE .......................................................................................... 67! xii ABBREVIATIONS AO : Arctic Oscillation CTs : Circulation Types EAWR : East Atlantic West Russia Pattern IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LWT : Lamb Weather Type MAP : Mean Annual Precipitation NAO : North Atlantic Oscillation NCAR : National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP : National Center for Environmental Prediction NOAA : National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RegCM3 : Regional Climate Model Version 3 SCA : ScandinavianPattern SST : Sea Surface Temperature TPs : Teleconnection Patterns TSMS : Turkish State Meteorology Service xiii xiv LIST OF TABLES Page Table 2.1: Geographic coordinates, altitudes, and the DJF precipitation characteristics of the stations for the period from 1960 to 2012. .............. 6! Table 3.1 : Average specific humidity (g kg-1) at pressure levels (mb) during type NW (1971-2010) at the NW of Marmara Region. .................................. 23!
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