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Danger-Report dR D.A.N.G.E.R. D.A.N.G.E.R. D.A.N.G.E.R. definitive analysis of negative game changers emerging in real estate REPORT researched and authored by commissioned by Swanepoel T3 Group theD.A.N.G.E.R. report Definitive Analysis of Negative Game Changers Emerging in Real Estate NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® The National Association of REALTORS® is America’s largest trade association, representing over 1 million members, including NAR’s institutes, societies, and councils, involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. Our membership is composed of residential and com- mercial REALTORS® who are brokers, salespeople, prop- erty managers, appraisers, counselors, and others en- gaged in the real estate industry. Members belong to one or more of some 1,400 local associations/boards and 54 state and territory associations of REALTORS® The term REALTOR® is a registered collective member- ship mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Working for America’s property owners, the National Association of REALTORS® provides a facility for pro- fessional development, research, and exchange of infor- mation among its members and to the public and gov- ernment for the purpose of preserving the free enterprise system and the right to own real property. Message from NAR Leadership CHRIS POLYCHRON 2015 President We are an industry that values the pace is quickening. We must be agile our entrepreneurialism. Being a REAL- and nimble if we hope to be successful. TOR® is not a 9-to-5 job. It’s not even a Our deliberations won’t come just from “job”. It’s a calling. The challenges we the boardroom. They will come in the face every day are a mix of age-old ques- hallways, the lobbies, and the walks be- tions of survival and trailblazing into the tween meetings. STEVE BROWN unknown. We need to account for both. We hope, in reading this Report, 2014 President This Danger Report is a mix of yes- you are filled with both passion and re- terday, today and tomorrow. The truth is, solve to engage in the debate about the there are a lot of challenges facing the future of our industry. By focusing on industry. It’s important to understand these challenges, we will make more op- where we’ve been and where we are, but portunities than we ever imagined. equally important to anticipate the forc- es taking shape that we can’t yet see. CHRIS POLYCHRON DALE STINTON In an attempt to give ‘voice’ to 2015 President Chief Executive Officer these forces, we conducted confidential National Association of REALTORS® interviews with many of the top industry minds, from within organized real es- STEVE BROWN tate and from without. The result is this 2014 President Report, which attempts to catalogue National Association of REALTORS® everyone’s greatest challenges and con- cerns in one place as a starting point for DALE STINTON industry-wide dialogue. Chief Executive Officer ® Of course, we will be stronger if National Association of REALTORS we meet these challenges together. But Foreword from the Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee STRATEGIC THINKING ADVISORY COMMITTEE Looking ahead to the future, whether as part of our own business strategy or as members of the RE- ALTOR® organization, requires that we assess the en- PURPOSE vironment that is taking shape and evolving each day. To identify and gather data that may affect the future of New threats emerge and unexpected opportunities the National Association of REALTORS®, and to monitor arise, even as we anticipate other developments in the and research threats, opportunities, key trends and is- businesses or the organizations with which we are af- sues, particularly from the fields that may impact the in- filiated. dustry, our members, the Association, and the real estate consumer. To create and deliver an annual report of their But, effectively planning for the future requires a findings (including supporting materials) to the Leader- thorough understanding of the threats and challenges ship Team, Executive Committee, and Board of Directors. that the real estate industry faces today and during the next few years. As real estate professionals, one of our COMPOSITION strengths is an ability to solve problems for our clients, Core of the Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee: so it is natural that we also want to find solutions for the 20 at-large members (one of whom is the Chair of the threats that we see in our business and in our industry. Young Professionals Network Advisory Board, and two Too often, however, we want to move quickly toward a who specialize in commercial), plus the Chair (appoint- solution, before we have a thorough understanding of ed by the President), Vice Chair (appointed by the Presi- the dangers we are confronting. dent-elect), Immediate Past Chair, the elected Leadership To help move the discussion forward in a mean- Team members (President, Immediate Past President, ingful and worthwhile manner, the National Associa- President-elect, First Vice President, Treasurer), the CEO tion of REALTORS® Strategic Thinking Advisory Com- and Senior Vice Presidents ex-officio (without a vote). mittee, along with Stefan Swanepoel, has created a Outside participants as needed (non-voting) based on report that seeks to describe as many of the threats the issues. and dangers as possible that may affect the real estate industry. At one time or another, each of us has prob- ably had a conversation with a colleague in our office or at a meeting about many of the threats described in COLLEEN BADAGLIACCO 2015 Chair this report. Unlike these irregular, ad hoc While the publication of the DAN- discussions, this report brings together GER Report is one step toward inspiring the collective wisdom and insights of thought and conversation, we hope that professionals from all segments of the it will go further by allowing your organi- real estate industry allowing us to gain a zation, brokerage, or association to begin more comprehensive view of the indus- a dialogue about the dangers you see. MICHAEL OPPLER try environment. After reading this report, you may find 2015 Vice Chair Each day, we see evidence of areas where you agree and areas where changes in the industry and our busi- you disagree with the assessment put ness that can be both exciting and unset- forward. In either case, we hope this re- tling. This report is a forward looking as- port will be a discussion starter that will sessment of threats that could emerge help prepare you and your organization from the perspective of agents, brokers, for the future. the National Association of REALTORS®, TODD SHIPMAN state and local associations and mul- COLLEEN BADAGLIACCO 2014 Chair tiple listing services. The time frame 2015 Chair during which any of these potential dan- Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee gers could emerge ranges from months to years suggesting some threats have MICHAEL OPPLER a higher level of urgency than others. If 2015 Vice Chair any of these threats do come to pass, Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee either sooner or later, they could affect the industry with varied intensity. Some TODD SHIPMAN could even be “game changers,” shifting 2014 Chair the flows of information, capital, and Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee profits in ways that we don’t necessarily understand today. Preface from the Author SWANEPOEL | T3 GROUP The D.A.N.G.E.R. Report addresses one step in a strate- gic planning exercise by asking an important question: What The leading management-consulting firm in the are the threats that could impact the residential real estate residential real estate industry. The Swanepoel brand has industry? become synonymous with quality market intelligence We sometimes view the industry through a distorted by publishing its annual Swanepoel TRENDS Report, the lens based on limited facts and a lot of conjecture. We decided Swanepoel Power 200, and the T3 Tech Guide as well as a it was time to change that. large portfolio of white papers under the Real Estate Con- This Report is a bold attempt to help the industry wrap fronts brand. Founded in 1997, the company has over the its arms around the future. The future is not doom and gloom last two decades has assisted over seventy percent of the but at the same time we should not underestimate it. Change industry’s largest firms. will absolutely happen and you can bet the farm on that. The The Swanepoel | T3 Group serves as hosts of the unexpected often occurs with a single event or a single com- annual T3 Summit, real estate’s foremost leadership con- pany. Some risks or threats identified in this report may build slowly through incremental changes while others might be ference, where CEOs meet to address industry-wide chal- overnight surprises. lenges. The Group is the also the creator of T3 Experts and T3 Fellows, providing top producing agents and fast grow- • Doubt everything, be profoundly skeptical. ing teams the best practices and business systems need- ed to ensure success. • Be zealous in your pursuit of knowledge. An extensive and experienced cadre of manage- ment consultants skilled in creating and implementing • Shatter conventional wisdom. strategies for high growth organizations, conducting tech- • Laugh at your disbeliefs. nology as well as risk and compliance audits is available through the consulting division T3sixty. The National Association of REALTORS® commis- RETrends.com | SP200.com | T3Summit.com | T3Experts.com | T3sixty.com sioned the Swanepoel | T3 Group to uncover, research, and in- dex the potential threats facing the industry. And we did so by reaching out to more than 70 of the industry’s leading CEOs STEFAN SWANEPOEL NYT Best-Selling Author and thought leaders and to over 7,500 bro- industry to the next generation.
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