2020 PRIMARY ELECTION PROFILE TEXAS ELECTION DAY: TUESDAY, MARCH 3, 2020

ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 38

TOTAL POPULATION (2018): LATINO POPULATION (2018): 28,701,845 11,368,844

In the past five presidential contests, Texans have generally supported the Republican candidate – in 2000 and 2004, the state handed decisive victories to its former governor, George W. Bush (R), who received 59% and 61% of the vote, respectively. In 2008, 2012, and 2016, the respective shares of votes garnered by U.S. Senator John McCain (R), Governor Mitt Romney (R), and Donald Trump (R) were somewhat smaller – 55%, 57%, and 52%.

In contrast, exit poll data suggest that Latino partisan preferences in the presidential contests fluctuated significantly between 2004 and 2016. In 2004, these data indicate that the Latino vote was nearly evenly split between Senator John Kerry (D) and President Bush (50% to 49%). In 2012, the gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates appeared much larger, with 71% of Latinos supporting President Barack Obama (D) compared to 27% for Senator McCain. According to research firm Latino Decisions 2016 Election Eve poll, the gap between Latino support for candidates from the two parties appeared to grow even wider, with 80% of Latinos favoring Hillary Clinton and 16% favoring Donald Trump. 2020

In Election 2018, the last midterm Congressional election, the Texas Latino vote increased dramatically from Election 2014, growing from 1,092,000 to 1,918,00, an increase of 76%. The turnout of Latino voting-age citizens also increased during the same period, from 22.4% to 34.3%. According to Latino Decisions 2018 Election Eve poll, economic opportunity, immigration reform, and access to affordable health care were the most important issues that Latino Texas voters wanted politicians to address. Sixty-eight percent of Latino respondents disapproved of the job that President Trump was doing, and 77% agreed that Trump’s statements and policies will cause a major setback to the progress made in recent years by Latinos. Thirty-six percent of Latino Texas voters indicated that they were voting in the 2018 election to support Democratic candidates, and 41% said they were voting to support and represent the Latino community. Policymakers, candidates, political observers, and community and civic leaders will be watching closely to see if the momentum of the Latino vote in 2018 carries through to Election 2020.

With respect to Latinos and Texas primary elections, the Latino vote played a particularly key role in Texas’ 2008 Democratic presidential primary contest. In 2008, both parties changed their primary schedules, and a large cluster of elections took place near the start of the year. Because many major primaries or nominating caucuses had occurred by February 5 (“Super Duper Tuesday”), some political observers predicted that the presidential nominees for both parties would be determined by that date. However, in a remarkable turn of events, the Democratic race proved so competitive, that the early primaries did not decide it.

In 2008, with its March 4 election, Texas became a key battleground for the Democratic nominees. Exit poll data suggested that the Latino vote was crucial to the victory of Hillary Clinton in Texas, which essentially allowed her to remain a viable candidate in the Democratic primary. Clinton’s margin of victory among all Texas Democrats was relatively narrow. She received 50.9% of the vote compared with then-Senator Obama’s 47.4%. The exit poll data indicate that Texas Latino Democrats favored Hillary Clinton over Obama by 66% to 32%. Former President Bill Clinton had called Texas a “must-win,” and the victory for Hillary Clinton was her first after 11 straight losses to Obama. After the Texas win, Hillary Clinton said that “this campaign has turned a corner,” and that support from Latino voters was essential to her comeback.

Looking forward to Election 2020, with Latinos comprising more than one of every four Texas registered voters (26%), Latino voters are poised to play a key role in the primary and general elections.

U.S. SENATE The field of Democratic contenders seeking the nomination for U.S. Senator is a crowded one, with worker advocate Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez being the most competitive Latino in the contest. She has a tough race, and her opponents include Air Force combat veteran MJ Hegar, former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell, and Texas State Senator Royce West. The victor of the primary will very likely face incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R). 2020

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Six of Texas’ seven incumbent Latino U.S. Representatives are running for re-election. Five of the six incumbent candidates do not have serious opposition in either the primary or general election: Democrats Joaquin Castro, Veronica Escobar, Sylvia Garcia, Vicente Gonzalez, and Filemon Vela (U.S. Rep. Bill Flores (R) is retiring). In the 28th Congressional District Democratic primary, U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar is facing a competitive challenge from immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros. Because of the predominance of Democratic voters in the district, the victor in the primary contest is likely to win the general election.

In the 7th Congressional District Republican primary, businessperson Maria Espinoza is a viable contender whose opponents include accountant Cindy Siegel (R) and real estate executive Wesley Hunt (R). The victor of this contest will very likely face incumbent U.S. Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D), who “flipped” the seat from Republican to Democratic in 2018.

Competitive Latinos in open seat contests include Navy veteran Tony Gonzales, home builder Raul Reyes Jr., and dentist Alma Arredondo-Lynch, who are in a crowded field of candidates vying for the Republican nomination in the 23rd Congressional District. Both political parties have targeted this seat, which is held by retiring U.S. Rep. Will Hurd (R). In 2018, U.S. Rep. Hurd barely defeated Filipina former Air Force Intelligence Officer Gina Ortiz Jones (D), who is pursuing the seat again in 2020. Political observers view Ortiz Jones as the Democratic primary frontrunner, and a tough opponent for the victor of the Republican primary.

Both parties have also targeted the open seat contest in the 24th Congressional District, held by retiring U.S. Rep. Kenny Marchant (R). In the Democratic primary, former Carrollton-Farmers Branch School Board Member Candace Valenzuela is in a tough race against leading competitor retired Air Force Colonel Kim Olson. In the Republican primary, Army veteran and business owner Desi Maes faces several contenders, including former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne and real estate businessperson Sunny Chaparala. 2020

SHARE OF TOTAL TEXAS’ POPULATION POPULATION LATINO All Latinos 11,368,844 40% POPULATION: Latino Adults 7,705,455 36%

Latino 5,627,836 30% 2018 Voting-Age Citizens

TEXAS’ Total Registered Voters 14,400,363

LATINO Latino Registered Voters 3,757,222 ELECTORATE Latino Share of 26% More than one of every four Registered Voters Texas registered voters (26%) is Latino. * as of September 2019 2020

AGE Texas Latino registered voters tend to be younger than non-Latinos, with 18-24-year-olds comprising 17% of registered Latinos, compared to 11% of non-Latinos. Similarly, 21% of Latino registered voters are 25-34-year-olds, compared to 17% of non-Latinos. In contrast, 48% of non-Latino registered voters are 50 and older, compared to 36% of Latinos.

65+ 18-24 15% 17%

50-64 LATINO 21% 25-34 21%

35-49 26%

18-24 65+ 11% 22% 25-34 NON-LATINO 17% 50-64 26% 35-49 25% 2020 VOTER TURNOUT

Latino voter turnout in Texas Presidential elections increased from 1,300,000 in 2000 to 1,938,000 in 2016, an increase of 49%.

REGISTERED VOTERS ACTUAL VOTERS 2020 LATINOS IN TEXAS ELECTED OFFICE In 2019, 2,739 Latinos served in elected office in Texas, with 98% serving at the local level, including county, municipal, school board, judicial and law enforcement, and special district officials.

LATINOS I N TEXAS ELECTED OFFICE: 1996–2019

1996 2001 2007 2013 2019

U.S. Senators 0 0 0 1 1

U.S. Representatives 5 6 6 6 7

State Officials 1 1 1 0 1

State Legislators 33 35 36 40 44

Local Officials 1,650 1,786 2,127 2,477 2,686

TOTAL 1,689 1,828 2,170 2,524 2,739

For more information about the NALEO Educational Fund’s Election 2020 publications, please contact Dorian Caal at [email protected] or (213) 765-9450. 2020

SOURCES

NALEO Educational Fund, 2019 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials.

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey (ACS), 1-year estimates. The ACS is conducted every year and is an on-going survey of a sample of the population which produces estimates of various population characteristics.

U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (CPS), Voting and Registration in the Elections of November: 2000-2018. The CPS data used in this report and the survey from which they are derived are subject to certain limitations. First, actual voter turnout and registration may be overestimated by the CPS, because individuals may tend to over-report electoral participation. Additionally, the CPS is a national survey, and estimates derived for smaller sub-groups within the national population may be based on relatively small sample sizes. Consequently, the margin of error associated with estimates of voting and registration for these sub-groups is greater than the margin associated with the national population or larger population sub-groups.

NGP Voter Activation Network (VAN) voter file data, September 2019. VAN data are subject to certain limitations relating to the collection, entry, maintenance and analysis of voter file records. All estimates are of Registered Active Voters.

Latino Decisions, 2016 and 2018 Election Eve polls, https://latinodecisions.com/polls-and-research/.