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The Texas Toss-Up

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The Texas Toss-Up The Texas toss-up A dozen of the state’s races for congressional seats could be competitive By JOE BARTON More Texas congressional seats are competitive this year than any time in the last four decades. As many as 12 of Texas’ 36 seats could be competitive, meaning this year could be pivotal for the state with the second-largest congressional delegation, and the state and national parties know it. When Texas joined the U.S. in 1845, it received two seats in the House of Representatives. By 1900, that number had grown to 13. The discovery of oil at Spindletop in 1901 started not only an oil boom, but a population boom, too. Seats in the U.S. House are allocated based on population, as determined by the U.S. Census, and since 1900 Texas has gained more seats than any other state. For most of its history, excepting Reconstruction in the 1870s, the Texas delegation was nearly entirely Democratic. When George H.W. Bush was elected to the House in 1966, he became only the fourth Republican from Texas in the modern era. Before the 1984 election, of the 27 Texas members, only four were Republican: Bill Archer and Jack Fields of Houston, Steve Bartlett of Dallas (who beat Kay Bailey Hutchison in a primary), and Tom Loeffler of Mason. With President Ronald Reagan and Vice President Bush running for re-election that year, Texas added six new Republicans to its congressional delegation: Dick Armey, Beau Boulter, Larry Combest, Tom Delay, Mac Sweeny and me. We were christened the Texas Six Pack. Today, of the 36 Texas representatives, 23 are Republican. But that GOP hold on Texas could be slipping. The 13 Democratic members represent a high-water mark for the last 20 years. Democrats flipped two seats in 2018 (Colin Allred beat Pete Sessions in Dallas and Lizzie Pannill Fletcher won over John Culberson in Houston). The big question for this election is, will Democrats gain more seats? Twelve seats are in play. Obviously, some are more in play than others, and the dynamics of each race are unique and will change as Election Day in November approaches. The open seats, where there is no incumbent running, are districts 17, 22, 23 and 24. 17th District: In the 17th, which includes Brazos and McLennan counties, former Congressman Pete Sessions, who recently won the Republican primary runoff, is favored over his Democratic rival Rick Kennedy. 22nd District: In 22, centered in Fort Bend County south of Houston, the Republican is Troy Nehls and the Democrat is Sri Preston Kulkarni. Kulkarni has a large cash- on-hand advantage ($1.2 million to $30,000), but this is the old Tom Delay seat, and the retiring incumbent is a Republican, Pete Olson. So, it’s a true toss-up at this time. Slight advantage to the Democrat because of his cash advantage. 23rd District: This is a classic toss-up district that goes from the San Antonio suburbs west to El Paso. It was the subject of a voting rights lawsuit after the 2010 redistricting, and it has changed hands several times in the last 10 years. The retiring Republican incumbent, Will Hurd, won two consecutive elections. The Democrat in this race is Gina Ortiz Jones. The Republican, Tony Gonzales, won the primary by only 7 votes, and the recount by 25. Jones has a big cash advantage over Gonzales, ($3 million to $600,000.) Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, says, “Our candidate is outstanding and we have a good chance to pick up that seat.” Former Republican Party state chairman James Dickey, who just lost his chairmanship to Allen West, countered: “We should be OK in Hurd’s open seat.” Again slight advantage to the Democrats because of the cash advantage and the as-yet-unresolved status of the Republican nominee. 24th District: Closer to home is this open seat, formerly held by Kenny Marchant, encompassing parts of northwest Dallas and Irving. Beth Van Duyne, former mayor of Irving, is up against Candace Valenzuela. Van Duyne has an approximate 5-to-1 cash advantage and comfortably won her Republican primary. A competitive race, but I give Van Duyne the edge. 32nd District: The Democrats have only two incumbents who face potentially competitive races. One is in Dallas, where Colin Allred defeated Pete Sessions in 2018. The Republican is Genevieve Collins, daughter of longtime Republican power broker Richard Collins. Both candidates are well-funded, but Allred has the advantage ($3 million to $1 million). Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson, arguably the most powerful Texas member of Congress now that the Democrats are the majority in the U.S. House, told me in a phone interview: “Allred should be safe. He is very likable and listens to both sides.” Collins is an excellent candidate, but it’s always tough to beat a likable incumbent. Possible upset, but advantage Allred. 7th District: In Houston’s 7th District, Fletcher beat longtime Republican Congressman Culberson in 2018. This year, she is up against Republican Wesley Hunt, who comfortably won a crowded primary. Fletcher has a very impressive $3 million in her campaign account, but Hunt has over $1 million and the ability to raise more quickly. Congressman Jodey Arrington from Lubbock, who is the Texas representative on the House Republican political committee, the National Republican Campaign Committee, said, “In Wes Hunt you just can’t get a better congressional candidate.” This seat is the Democratic seat most likely to flip back to the Republican column. Six Texas incumbent Republicans face potentially competitive races. 6th and 25th districts: Two, Ron Wright in the 6th District, which is centered in Arlington, and Roger Williams in the 25th, which stretches from Aledo to Austin and farther south to San Antonio, are on the competitive list because their 2018 victory margins were lower than expected. However, neither of their opponents has raised much money, and they don’t appear to be campaigning aggressively. Label both seats likely Republican. 10th District: In this district, which stretches from Austin and San Antonio to Houston, incumbent Michael McCaul, past chairman of the Homeland Security Committee, faces Democrat Mike Siegel. McCaul won by only 4 points last time, so the Democrats have their eye on his seat. This time, McCaul is not taking anything for granted. He has over $1 million on hand as compared to his opponent’s $160,000. 2nd District: Republican incumbent Dan Crenshaw faces Democratic challenger Sima Ladjevardian. Crenshaw has an impressive $4 million cash on hand, the most of any Texas Republican. His opponent has a respectable $545,000, but unless a Democratic wave emerges, Crenshaw should win this Houston-area race. 21st District: Republican incumbent Chip Roy faces well-known and high profile Democrat Wendy Davis. This Austin-area contest is shaping up to be a nail-biter. Both are well-funded; Davis has $2.9 million to Roy’s $1.7 million. Various national and state rating organizations identify this as a toss-up to lean Republican. The race will be determined by who runs the best local campaign and how the presidential race develops. If President Donald Trump wins Texas comfortably, Roy wins. If Joe Biden pulls an upset or comes close, then Davis wins. 31st District: The last Texas Republican incumbent with a possible close race is John Carter, whose central Texas district includes Williamson County north of Austin and goes up to Bell County, location of Fort Hood. Carter won by only 3 points in 2018. This time around, Carter’s opponent is Donna Imam. She only has $42,000 cash on hand, while Carter has almost $1 million. Absent a huge cash infusion by national Democrats or a big Biden surge, Carter should win. Congressional races are seldom determined solely by the strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates. This year is no exception. External variables include the presidential race, the coronavirus situation and its effect on the Texas economy, the political impact of racial tension, the strengths of the state political parties, and the willingness of the two national congressional campaign committees to commit large human and financial resources to Texas. A Democratic presidential candidate has not carried Texas since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Trump carried Texas in 2016 by 9 points. So the odds are on Trump’s side against Biden, but some early polls showed the president behind in Texas. Knowing that he can’t win re-election if he doesn’t carry Texas, Trump will certainly campaign in Texas and spend heavily on media. Sen. John Cornyn running for re- election should help the president, so I expect a Trump win, but with a much narrower margin than last time, something like 49-44 over Biden. Such a narrow victory wouldn’t hurt Republican candidates in competitive elections, but it wouldn’t help them much, either. When I ran in 1984 in a seat drawn earlier to be a safe seat for then-Democrat Phil Gramm, President Ronald Reagan carried Texas by 27 points, and the 6th District by 30 points. Phil Gramm won his old congressional district in his U.S. Senate race by 20 points, and I won my congressional race by 10 points. That’s real political coattails. It’s difficult to analyze the effect of the coronavirus and the racial protests on congressional elections months off. But, to the extent votors are upset with the handling of the pandemic, they seem more upset with Gov. Greg Abbott and local officials such as county judges and mayors. Protests over police treatment of minorities have been mostly peaceful in Texas, but looting and vandalism in other parts of the country could help Trump and Republican candidates here.
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