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Coping with in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 2016 9-10)

6-9-2016

SLIDES: The Construction of Water Scarcity and Its Management: Some Insights from 's Vaal System 'Problemshed'

Mike Muller

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Citation Information Muller, Mike, "SLIDES: The Construction of Water Scarcity and Its Management: Some Insights from South Africa's Vaal System 'Problemshed'" (2016). Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10). https://scholar.law.colorado.edu/coping-with-water-scarcity-in-river-basins-worldwide/10

Reproduced with permission of the Getches-Wilkinson Center for Natural Resources, Energy, and the Environment (formerly the Natural Resources Law Center) at the University of Colorado Law School. THE CONSTRUCTION OF WATER SCARCITY AND ITS MANAGEMENT SOME INSIGHTS FROM SOUTH AFRICA’S VAAL SYSTEM ‘PROBLEMSHED’

Mike Muller School of Governance University of , South Africa  Physical scarcity  Variability induced economic scarcity  Pollution, quality and scarcity  Socially determined scarcity  Operational determinants of scarcity  Production, trade and the creation of scarcity

SCARCITY – DETERMINANTS AND RESPONSES system supports 60% SA’s economy, 40% population, well beyond sub-basin boundary MANAGING VARIABILITY

Flow Management Maximum flood flow interventions

Maximum flood flow

Reliable Flow

Reliable Flow Time Reliable supplies =

More investment, greater productivity Storage & links mitigate variability related scarcity (investment constraint = economic scarcity) EVOLUTION OF VAAL SYSTEM’S “FOOTPRINT”

1890s local springs 1982 Tugela-Vaal 1902 - Zuurbekom 1923

1938

Investment mitigates local, physical, scarcity – 1st major inter-basin transfer into Vaal system EVOLUTION OF VAAL SYSTEM’S “FOOTPRINT”

Next, the Zambezi?!

1890s local springs 1982 Tugela-Vaal 1902 Rand Water - Zuurbekom

1923 Vaal Barrage

1938 Vaal Dam

1998 Highlands Phase 1a

2004 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1b 2024 Lesotho Highlands Phase 2 Integrated Vaal River System

Existing Transfer Schemes Proposed Transfer Schemes Mokolo Catchment PROBLEM-SHED NOT WATER-SHED

Vaal Catchment Crocodile Catchment POLLUTION ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO SCARCITY ACID MINE DRAINAGE: POLLUTION TO BE TREATED OR RESOURCE FLOW TO BE MANAGED?

LIABILITY, VIABILITY AND ACID MINE DRAINAGE - ’S HERITAGESUBSIDY OVERVIEW OF WATER QUALITY: SALINITY STATUS

JOHANNESBURG Klerkskraal Johan Neser Boskop Kliprivier Rietspruit Suikerbos VS1 Barberspan Klipdrif VAAL Grootdraai VS2 Wentzel VS8 BARRAGE Barrage VS3 VS9 VS7 VS5 KromdraaiIncremental rksdorp Kle VAAL VS4 VS12

VaalV DamS6

e i

s VS10 Incremental e VS11

w BloemhofS13 Incremental

Spitskop k V a

Taung M Rietfontein UPPER 14 f VS15 VS Koppies VAAL 900 DouglasBlo Barrageemho Delangesdrift RWQO (existing - at study initiation) VS16 MIDDLE RWQO (workshop) 800 Dam Christiana VAAL Klipbank Vaalharts FrankfortRWQO (final proposed) Vaal Barrage Lower Harts VS17 700 Sand Vet Incemental Vaalharts LOWER Weir Vaal Dam 600 VAAL De Hoop Allemanskraal VS19 VS18 Sterkfontein 500 Douglas Incremental Erfenis Kimberley

TDS (mg/l) TDS 400 Tweerivier Krugerdrif VS20 Douglas 300

Aucampshoop 200 Tierpoort LEGEND : LEVEL 1 POINTS Rustfontein VS10 - Vermaasdrift VS1 - At origin at N17 bridge VS11 - Midvaal VS2 - At Camden (R29/N2 Bridge) VS12 - Orkney Bridge 100 Kalkfontein VS3 - At N11 Bridge to Amersfort VS13 - Regina weir VS4 - At R35 Bloukop Bridge VS14 - Balkfontein 12 VS5 - Grootdraai Dam VS15 - (upstream) 0 VS6 - At Villiers Flood Section VS16 - Bloemhof Dam (downstream weir) 7 - Vaal Dam on Vaal River VS20 VS19 VS18 VS17 VS16 VS14 VS13 VS12 VS11VS VS10 VS9 VS8 VS7 VS6 VS1VS57 - VaalVS4harts BaVS3rrage (doVS2wnstreamVS1 weir) (downstream weir) VS18 - Vaal River at De Hoop Monitoring Point on Vaal rRiver(Levelrage - near B 1)arrage wall VS8 - Vaal Ba VS19 - VS9 - Vaal River at low water bridge VS20 - Douglas Barrage - near barrage wall SALINITY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

Short term actions:-  Implement source controls  Upgrade monitoring programme  Feasibility of saline effluent (AMD) treatment  Pilot waste discharge charges  Dilution to keep TDS to 600 mg/L Medium/Long term Actions:-  Implement saline effluent (AMD) treatment  Implement waste discharge charges 13 UPSIDE OF ACID MINE DRAINAGE

 AMD only 15% of ‘salt’ pollution in Vaal  But concentrated, point sources  Cheaper to clean up than treating the river  Or using scarce & expensive water for dilution  Will also provide small additional supply stream POLLUTION ALSO REFLECTS CHANGING SOCIAL PRIORITIES SA’S ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE Empirically, environmental priorities change with the income of the politically dominant group

US$8000 (2002) ?? Black majority White minority

US$1900 SA hhld. inc. US$14400 Climate change: A future ‘source’ of scarcity? SCENARIO DESCRIPTION

CCT WC/WDM strategy, thereafter selection based on a conservativ Scenario 10 selection of interventions (a) Objective: To determine the impact of selecting a “conservative portfolio” KEY FINDINGS •Supply interventions would have to be “fast tracked”. •To avoid “fast tracking” WC/WDM would have to be successfully implemented •Net present value of this option is R1 844 million 9

8

7 6 5 4 3 2

SCENARIO DESCRIPTION CCT WC/WDM strategy, thereafter selection based on a conservative selection of interventions including potential impacts of ecological Reserve and climate Scenario change 10 (b) Objective: To determine how the implementation of the Reserve and the potential for climate change could impact on the selection of interventions

KEY FINDINGS •Supply interventions would have to be “fast tracked”. •Net present value of this option is 10 R 4 477 million. •Cost impact of climate change and implementing the Reserve is approx 9 R 2 633 million

8

7 6 5 4 3 2

Poor municipal management contributes Lossesto scarcity and leaks 10 of these a year = R350 000 POOR MUNICIPAL MANAGEMENT CONTRIBUTES TO SCARCITY

 South African cities ‘lose’ 36.7% of its water?  ‘non-revenue’ water  Physical losses?  Financial losses?  Remedies:-  Know your system  Find and fix leaks  Maintain infrastructure  Identify and chase debtors  (aka establish effective operating systems)

 Non revenue water programmes address scarcity SYSTEMIC IMPACT OF MUNICIPAL (AND OTHER) LOSSES IN VAAL

SCENARIO A

• High water requirement SCENARIO C scenario, no further water loss reduction, no • 15% reduction in water reduction in water use due use due to water to WC/WDM. conservation and demand management (WC/WDM) • Increasing water use continues until • Unlawful irrigation water 2016. use eradicated in 2011 and controlled thereafter • Implement both Phase 2 of the Lesotho Highlands SCENARIO B • Phase 2 Lesotho Water Project (Polihali Highlands Water Project Dam) and the Thukela • Unlawful irrigation water (Polihali Dam) and Thukela Water Project (Jana Dam use eradicated in 2011 and Water Project (Jana Dam and Mielietuin Dam ) controlled thereafter and Mielietuin Dam ) PRODUCTION, TRADE, SCARCITY & ‘VIRTUAL WATER’ Southern Africa’s global agricultural trade

Water rich to water poor SADC’S GLOBAL SADC Trade in Selected Agricultural Products, Inputs TRADE IMPORTS EXPORTS BALANCE Product / Year Input

Cassava 2009 0 0 0 2010 0 0 0 Maize 2009 210 410 200 CURRENTLY, 2010 130 278 148 Rice 2009 800 34 -766 SADC IMPORTS RICE, 2010 737 36 -701 Soya Bean 2009 6 76 70 EXPORTS FRUIT AND 2010 14 60 46 Sugar Beans 2009 62 76 15 2010 67 91 24 TOBACCO …. Fruit 2009 152 1822 1671 2010 182 2367 2185 Cotton 2009 10 30 20 2010 1 37 36 MAKES SENSE? Tobacco 2009 299 1422 1123 2010 343 771 427 Fertilizers, m 2009 1006 270 -735 2010 1013 345 -668 Pesticides 2009 188 67 -121 2010 206 47 -159

Million $US SOUTHERN AFRICA - WHO HAS THE WATER?

Country Metres3/person South Africa 1110 Least water Malawi 1400 Zimbabwe 1550 Lesotho 1680 Swaziland 4160 Botswana 6820 Namibia 8810 Most water Zambia 9630 Angola 10510 Mozambique 11320 INTRA-SADC AGRICULTURAL TRADE

South Africa Other SADC to other SADC to South Africa

US$1 054 million US$211 million 0.56 km3 0.13 km3

4.5 km3 0.96 km3

South Africa’s net exports: Water poor to 3.50km3 green water 0.43km3 blue water water rich US$843 million Regional agricultural cooperation is a no-brainer (in water terms!)

• Irrigation in SA uses 60% of water

• Much for internationally “rain-fed” crops

• “High-potential, rain-fed cropping land”:-

Zambia - 11,1 million ha Mozambique - 8,8 million ha Zimbabwe - 6,3 million ha Malawi - 0,4 million ha

Total - 26,6 million ha ADDRESS SOCIAL IMPACT OF PRODUCTION SHIFT BY ‘SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION’ OF LOCAL FARMING? CHALLENGE:- THE LONG WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CYCLE

 Policy cycle – multi decades  Technical planning & strategy cycle (20 years?)  Investment implementation (10 years)  Drought cycle (10 – 20 years) – key planning focus  Major drought event (5 – 10 years) – action trigger  Operational response (multi-seasonal)  Operations (ongoing)

 Primary challenge – sustaining coherence through the cycle!