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Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Availability in the Upper Vaal River Basin

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Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Availability in the Upper Vaal River Basin IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY IN THE UPPER VAAL RIVER BASIN by Huzefa Talibhusein Haji Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree MAGISTER TECHNOLOGIAE: CIVIL ENGINEERING in the Department of Civil Engineering FACULTY OF ENGINEERING AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT TSHWANE UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Supervisor: Prof F. A. O Otieno Co-Supervisor: Dr G. M Ochieng’ JANUARY 2011 DECLARATION BY CANDIDATE “I hereby declare that the thesis submitted for the degree Magister Technologiae in Civil Engineering, at the Tshwane University of Technology, is my own original work and has not previously been submitted to any other institution of higher education. I further declare that all the sources cited or quoted are indicated and acknowledged by means of a comprehensive list of references”. Huzefa Talibhusein Haji Copyright © Tshwane University of Technology 2011 i This work is dedicated to my ‘Matashree’… Who gave me strength even when she was weak, Who put a smile on my face even when her own heart wept, Who instilled the value of education even when she did not have one, And who could not honour me with a chance to give back, For she is now where all dreams come true. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This journey started with an email. I therefore would like to begin by thanking the Almighty for giving me the wisdom to send that email. However, I could not have proceeded any further without the benediction of my Holiness Dr. Syedna Mohammed Burhanuddin (T.U.S) to continue on this journey. My family stood beside me throughout, giving me a strong foundation to lean on. It was especially difficult for my fiancé to let me board that plane, but she made the sacrifice. This journey would definitely have been a rougher ride were it not for their support. As with all journeys, we meet different people and have varied experiences which mould us into wiser individuals. I was fortunate to learn from one of the humblest persons I have ever met, my supervisor Professor Frederick Otieno. From the day we first met, he has constantly amazed me with his down-to-earth attitude, immense intellect and kindness and unwavering support during my studies. He made me feel right at home. I thank him for giving me the life time opportunity to realise my ambition of pursuing post graduate studies. I will forever remain in his debt for this. I would like to thank my co supervisor, Dr. George Ochieng’ who always had his door open for brainstorming sessions and guidance on best approaches to take. These sessions were always fruitful and he made sure I saw the light at the end of the numerous tunnels I passed through during this journey. I would also like to express my gratitude to the South African Weather Service (SAWS) for providing the invaluable climate data. Without the support of Mrs Nicolene Fourie and Mrs Jane Mogaswa of the Department of Water Affairs (DWA), I believe this journey would have been extremely difficult. In addition, my gratitude goes to Mr Allan Bailey of Stewart Scott International (SSI) who was instrumental in the success of this study by providing the WR2005 data from which this work largely draws from. Finally, my sincere appreciation goes to Salomé and Daphne of the Department of Civil Engineering for their support and finally to Tshwane University of Technology for providing the financial assistance and necessary resources to complete this study. iii ABSTRACT It is an established fact that South Africa is a water stressed nation, with its existing water resources under pressure to meet a growing demand. This vulnerability may further be exacerbated by possible changes in climate which will exert an additional layer of uncertainty on existing water resources. The Upper Vaal River Basin (UVRB) supports the economic heartland of South Africa and underpins the socio economic harmony of more than 12 million people. The objective of this study was to investigate the UVRB’s ability to sustain projected surface water abstractions under the impact of future climate change. In achieving this objective, the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was used. The model incorporates different modules which can collectively describe the integrated nature of river basin management. This study has only set up the surface hydrology and water allocation modules of the model. The approach used in this Study began by setting up the naturalised hydrology of the UVRB on a monthly time step over a 6 year period beginning in the water year 1999 to 2005. Thereafter, the present conditions in the basin relating to water abstraction, developed water infrastructure like dams and inter basin transfers were superimposed on the naturalised hydrology to validate the model. Climate change was simulated to the year 2030 using the ECHAM4 and CSIRO models under the SRES B2 emission scenario. These data were extracted from the TYN SC 2.03 dataset. Projected water demands to the year 2030 were adopted from a previous study. The results indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the basin processes under naturalised conditions in terms of stream flows with overall basin R2 and E efficiency criteria ranging from 0.674 – 0.843 respectively. As for the present conditions, the same efficiency criteria ranged between 0.68 – 0.69 respectively. iv Climate change simulation indicates a wetter future with an increasing trend in stream flow. On one hand, the magnitude of mean monthly stream flow decreases while the maximum monthly stream flow increases when compared to the characteristics of monthly historical flows. Water abstractions by Rand Water and Industries are fully met. However, irrigation demands experience a small deficit (10-13%) during the dry season only. In addition, the Instream Flow Requirements are also met for all key points except for Klip River throughout the simulation period. The above results are however heavily dependent on the continued increasing trend in inter basin transfer of water from the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP). If this transfer is in any manner constrained, despite the wetter future climate, the basin will experience deficits in meeting its water demand obligations. Furthermore, the period between years 2016 – 2024 indicates a dry period in which significant reservoir draw downs are observed. However, water demands will continue being met within this period. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................... iii ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................... iv LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................. xi LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................. xvi ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................................. xviii CHAPTER ONE ..................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 1 1.1. The State of our Water Resources ................................................................................. 1 1.2. Climate Change and its Effect on our Water Resources ................................................ 3 1.3. Why study the Upper Vaal River Basin? ......................................................................... 6 1.4. Research Objective ......................................................................................................... 7 1.4.1. Specific Objectives:................................................................................................. 7 1.5. Outline of Dissertation ................................................................................................... 7 CHAPTER TWO .................................................................................................... 9 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................. 9 2.1. What is Climate and Climate Change? ........................................................................... 9 2.2. Observed Climate Change ............................................................................................ 12 2.3. Modelling Climate Change ........................................................................................... 13 2.3.1. Climate Change Scenarios .................................................................................... 14 2.4. Climate Change in South Africa .................................................................................... 17 2.5. What is Hydrological Modelling and Why? .................................................................. 19 2.5.1. Classification of Hydrologic Models ..................................................................... 19 vi 2.5.2. Types of Hydrologic Models ................................................................................. 20 2.6. The Concept of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) ............................ 23 2.7. Climate Change and Water Resource Management .................................................... 25 2.7.1. How Will Climate Change Effect Water Resources? ............................................ 26 2.7.2. Climate Change Impact Studies in South Africa ................................................... 27 2.8. Decision Support
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