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Growth of the World's Urban and Rural Population, 1920-2000

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Growth of the World's Urban and Rural Population, 1920-2000 Department of Economic and Social Affairs POPULATION STUDIES, No. 44 Growth of the world's urban and rural population, 1920 - 2000 United Nations New York, 1969 NOTE Symbols ofUnited Nations documents are composed ofcapital letters combined with figures. Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document. 1 ST/SOAISeries A/44 I UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales number: E.69. XIII. 3 Price: $U.S. 2.00 (or equivalent in other currencies) PREFACE Pursuant to recommendations of the Population compared and related to each other for dates from 1920 Commission at its ninth, tenth and eleventh sessions, to 1960and projected to 1980, tentatively also to the year endorsed by the Economic and Social Council.! the 2000. The text of the report compares the estimates for United Nations is surveying demographic conditions and more developed and less developed, major areas of the trends in the world in their principal aspects.s This study world, and for the combination of more developed and is the first comprehensive report to present world-wide less developed regions. Additional estimates for a greater comparisons in rates and proportions of growth in urban number of regions and for individual countries are and rural population.s Itincludesthe growth in urban and presented in the annexes, together with statements on rural population as variously defined in national censuses methods by which the estimates have been derived. and in the population of localities grouped by population Full acknowledgementis made of the deficiencies in the size, in an endeavour to arrive at comparable estimates. data upon which the estimates are based and the possi­ There are few countries in the world where problems bility of considerable margins of error in the estimates are not being encountered in the context of rising pro­ themselves. Many arbitrary decisions had to be taken in portions of the population in urban localities, or in the the endeavour to arrive at comparable estimates. Admit­ rapid growth of big cities, some of them attaining sizes tedly, these are debatable and leave much scope for unknown in past history. A quantitative world-wide improvement on the basis of more detailed research. survey of the phenomenon has rarely been undertaken in A major question in producing this report was whether view of the great complexity resulting from statistics of to publish these more or less tentative estimates or to widely varying quality and definition. The problems invest more time and effort in their further refinement. resulting from the diversity of statistical standards are It was concluded that the need for documentation of the discussedextensively in this report. magnitudes involved in present world urbanization trends Estimates of urban and rural population, of population was so pressing that early publication was preferable in agglomerations smaller or larger than 20,000 inhab­ to a more thorough substantiation of the detailed figures. itants, and in cities of various specified size classes are However, the work is to continue and it is hoped that revised estimates can be published at some future time in conjunction with new estimates once the results of censusesexpected to be taken in and around 1970become 1. Official Records of the Economic and Social Council, available. In addition, other work is in progress bearing Twenty-third Session, Supplement No.4, para. 16; ibid., on the composition of urban and rural populations by Twenty-seventh Session, Supplement No.3, para. 29; lbid., demographic, economic and social characteristics, and Thirty-first Session, Supplement No.3, para. 131 A(3). changes in these compositions. The present survey merely 2. Surveys of two principal aspects have been published: reviews the numbers of inhabitants residing in settle­ "The situation and recent trends of mortality in the world" in ments of diverse types. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 6 and "Con­ It is also recognized that variations in patterns of rural ditions and trends of fertility in the world" in Population Bulle­ tin of the United Nations, No.7 (United Nations publications, settlement by size of locality can have large implications Sales Nos.: 62.XIII.2 and 64.XIII.2). for economic and social change, but this topic is so poorly 3. Previous documents include "World urbanization trends, documented in the census data of most countries that 1920-1960" published in the first issue of International Social its world-wide survey cannot be undertaken at the present Development Review (United Nations publication, Sales No.: time. E.68.IV.l) and "Urban and rural population growth, 1920-1960, Acknowledgement is given to Professor Pierre George with projections", an unpublished paper prepared by the United for his review of the draft of this report. His comments Nations Secretariat for submission to the Population Com­ have been taken into account in preparing the' present mission (1967). text. iii CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION •.••..•.••••••• 1 A. Significance of recent urbanization trends 1 B. Aspects of urbanization ........ 1 C. Historic development of the "urban" concept 2 D. Modern "urban" conditions. ... 3 E. Structure of the "rural" environment . 3 F. The demographic viewpoint 4 G. Purpose of the report 5 Chapter I. THE WORLD'S URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN 1950AND 1960AS NATIONALLY DEFINED. .•.•...•....••••.•..••••••• .• 7 A. Problems of statistical definition . .. 7 B. Selection of data and methods for obtaining estimates of mid-year 1950 and 1960 . .. 10 C. Urban and rural population estimates for major world areas, 1950and 1960 . .. 11 D. Urban and rural population estimatesfor forty of the world's countries in 1960 . .. 13 E. Sex composition of urban and rural populations ........ ., 14 II. WORLD URBANIZATION TRENDS AS MEASURED IN AGGWMERATIONS, 1920-1960 19 A. Problems of trend study. .................. .. 19 B. Nomenclature adopted for the present purpose. ........ .. 19 C. Methods adopted to estimate long-run trends . .. 20 D. Estimates of agglomerated and rural and small-town population, 1920- 1960 . .. 22 E. Increases in agglomerated and in rural and small-town population, 1920-1960. ....................... 24 F. Levelsof urbanization, 1920-1960 (agglomerated population only) 29 G. Size composition of the agglomerated population. 31 H. The population of big cities and multimillion cities . 35 I. Seaports and inland cities . 39 III. ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES AND TRENDS DERIVED FROM "METROPOLITAN AREA", "URBAN" AND "AGGLOMERATED" POPULATION CONCEPTS, 1920-1960. 44 A. Alternative estimates for large urban places . 44 B. The"small-town" population . 45 C. Urbanization levels, 1920-1960 (conforming to national definitions) 48 D. Rough estimates of strictly rural population, 1920-1960 . 49 E. Urbanization levelsaccording to successively higher sizelimits, 1920-1960 50 IV. A TENTATIVE ASSESSMENT OF POssmLE FUTURE TRENDS . • . • • • • • •• 55 A. Total population projections. ................ .. 55 B. The projection of agglomerated and rural and small-town population 55 C. Projected increments, 1960-1980 ............ 56 D. Possible long-run trends, 1920-2000. 57 E. Population trends by size class of agglomeration, 1920-1980 64 F. Future urban and rural population as nationally defined. 69 G. Urbanization levels, 1920-2000. ............ 72 H. Redistribution of the world's urban and rural population, 1920-2000 74 I. The changing human habitat 75 ANNEXES I. Composition of major areas by regions and countries . " 79 II. List of definitions used in the estimation of "urban" population as nationally defined . .. 81 III. Methods used to estimate agglomerated population (localities with 20,000 and more inhabitants), 1920-1960. 85 IV. Tables of estimates for individual countries . 98 V. Population of big cities and multimillion cities, 1920-1960 .... 107 VI. Tables of estimates and projections for twenty-one world regions . 114 y List of figures Page I. Percentage oftotal population in all urban localities as nationally defined and in agglomerations with 20,000 or more inhabitants, 1950 and 1960. Facing II. Net urban excess masculinity, 1960 and urban population (nationally defined) as percentage of total population. ................ .. 17 III. Agglomerated and rural and small-town population in eight major areas of the world, 1920-1960 . .. 23 IV. Ratio of population in 1930, 1940, 1950 and 1960 relative to 100 population in 1920, in eight major areas of the world (total, agglomerated and rural and small-town) .......................... ., 28 V. Agglomerated population by size of locality, 1920-1960 . .. 33 VI. Population of the world's twenty-five largest cities, 1920-1960 . .. 36 VII. Size, composition and growth of world population in agglomerated localities (20,000 or more inhabitants) and in rural areas and small towns in more developed regions andless developed regions, 1920-1980. ...... .. 61 VIII. Increases in agglomerated and rural and small-town population in eight major areas, 1920-1960 and 1960-1980 ... ........... .. 62 IX. Growth ofworld total population and urban population in various categories, 1920-1980 . .'. 66 X. Percentages ofurban and rural population, 1920-1980, classified by recency of urban development and size of locality .............. .. 68 XI. Number of multimillion cities (2,500,000 or more inhabitants) .... .. 70 XII. Population residing in multimillion cities (2,500,000 or more inhabitants) 70 XIII. Percentages of world's urban and rural population, conforming to national definitions, in major areas,
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