Prepared for: Housing Connect
MARKET STUDY: CITY PLAZA AND
COUNTY HIGH RISE APARTMENTS,
SALT LAKE CITY
Prepared by:
James Wood
December 2019 MARKET STUDY CHECKLIST AND CERTIFICATION OF INDEPENDENCE
Project: City Plaza and County High Rise Apartments Date of Market Study December 4, 2019 Market Study Prepared For Housing Connect Prepared By James Wood Commissioned By Housing Authority of Salt Lake City and Housing Authority of Salt Lake County DBA Housing Connect Date of Review
ELEMENTS OF MARKET STUDY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Concise description of the site and immediate surrounding area. 5 2. Brief summary of the project including the proposed population to be served. 5 3. Precise statement of conclusions reached by the analyst. 5 4. Concise statement of the analyst’s opinion of market feasibility. 5 5. Recommendation and/or suggested modifications to the proposed project, if appropriate. 5 6. A summary of positive and negative attributes and issues that will affect the property’s 5 marketability, performance and lease-up and points that will mitigate or reduce any negative attributes.
PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1. Number of units by: 7 a. Number of bedrooms and baths. 7 b. Income limit as a percentage of AMI. 7 c. Unit size in square feet. 7 d. Utility allowance for tenant paid utilities. 7 e. Proposed rents. 7 2. Target Population: 7 a. Income restrictions. 7 b. Proposed housing assistance. 7 c. Special needs set asides. 7 3. Utilities to be paid by tenants and energy sources for tenant paid hot water, heat, cooking. 7 4. Description of market area. 7 a. Site’s relation to surrounding roads, public transportation, etc. 7 5. Description of structures: 7 a. Number of buildings. 8 b. Design (walk-up, elevator, etc.) and number of stories. 8 c. Unit and common amenities 8 d. Site amenities and parking. 8 6. Status or date of architectural plans 8 a. Name of architect. 8 b. Copy of floor plans and elevations. 8 7. For Rehabilitation: 8
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a. Description of the methodology for the rehabilitation and scope of work. 8 b. Identification of any existing assisted housing programs at the property. 8 c. Current Occupancy levels. 8 d. Proposed rents. 8 8. Projected date for construction start and completion, and start of leasing. 8 MARKET AREA ECONOMY 1. Detailed description of primary market area. 9 2. Define the secondary market area if appropriate. 9 3. Map of market area that clearly delineates the areas and an explanation of the basis for the 9 boundaries of the areas. 4. Identify the areas by census tracts, jurisdictions, street names or other geography 9 boundaries. 5. Description of site, vegetation and proximity to adverse conditions. 9 6. Population and household trends. 24-27 7. Photographs of the site and neighborhood. 12-14 8. Map (or may be addressed in narrative) clearly identifying the location of the project to 12 public facilities, services, and shops. 9. Suitability of the proposed site. 8 10. Population of qualified tenants. 57-60 11. Describe and evaluate the visibility and accessibility of the site. 8 12. Provide information or statistics on crime in the PMA relative to data for the overall 11 area.
EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMY 1. Description of employment by industry sector for the PMA and compare the data to the 15-16 larger geographic area, e.g. the city, county, labor market area or MSA. a. Show the historical unemployment rate for the last ten years (or other appropriate 18 period). 2. List major employers in the PMA, the type of business and the number employed. 16 3. Employment growth over the last 5 or 10 years and compare to the larger geographical 17 area. 4. Comment on trends for employment in the PMA in relation to the project. 15-16 5. Provide a breakdown of typical wages by occupation. 19 6. Provide commuting patterns of workers in the PMA. 22-23
DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS 1. Current and projected population and household counts. 24-26 2. History of building permits by housing type and comments on building trends in relation 32 to household trends. 3. Total population characteristics such as age and household type. 28 4. Households by income. 28 5. Analysis of trends indicated by the data and explanation of analyst-generated estimates. 24-26 6. Households by tenure. 30
COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT 1. Identify a list of comparable properties, including: 38
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a. Name and location. 37-49 b. Population served. 37-49 c. Type of design. 37-49 d. Age and condition 37-49 e. Number of units by bedroom type, rent levels 37-49 f. Size in square footage of units. 37-49 g. Kitchen equipment. 37-49 h. Type of utilities and whether paid by tenant or owner. 37-49 i. Unit and site amenities included. 37-49 j. Site staffing 37-49 k. Occupancy rate. 37-49 l. Name, address and phone number of property contact. 37-49 m. Attach photos of each comparable property. 37-49 n. Include a map identifying the location of each comparable property to the subject 37 project. 2. Narrative evaluation of the subject project in relation to comparables. 37 a. Why the comparables have been selected. 37 b. Which are the most directly comparable? 37 c. Why certain projects have not been referenced. 37 3. Market vacancy rate in the PMA by population served, type of occupancy and unit size. 55-56 4. Impact of subject development on existing rental housing stock. 61 5. The number of people on waiting lists for each project. NA 6. Size of overall market in the PMA; percentage of market rate and affordable housing. 34, 44 7. Availability and cost of affordable housing options, including purchase of homes. 61 8. Discussion of rental projects planned or under construction in the market area. 53-54
ANALYSIS/CONCLUSIONS 1. Detailed analysis of the income levels of the potential tenants for the proposed rents. 57-53 2. Calculate the capture rate for each income limit in the subject project. 57 3. Calculate the penetration rate. NA 4. Define and justify the absorption period and absorption rate for the subject property. NA 5. Derive a market rent and achievable rent and compare to developer’s proposed rent. 61 6. Project and explain any future changes in the housing stock within the market area. 62-64 7. Identify risks, unusual conditions and mitigating circumstances. 8 8. Evaluate need for voucher support or HUD contracts. 62 9. Summary of the perspective on the rental market. 62 a. Need for the proposed housing 62 b. Unmet housing need in the market. 62 OTHER REQUIREMENTS 1. Date report was prepared, date of inspection and name and telephone number of analyst. 2 2. Certificate of no identity of interest. 65 3. Certificate that recommendation based solely on professional opinion. 65 4. Statement of qualifications. 67 5. Append current utility allowance schedule. See application See app
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EXECUTIVE AND NARRATIVE SUMMARY
Site Description – The site of the existing 299 units at City Plaza and County High Rise is adjacent to the Salt Lake County office complex and one block east of State Street, a main north-south arterial in Salt Lake County. The site is one block east of the State Street commercial corridor, which includes sit-down restaurants, fast food restaurant, commercial office space (O.C. Tanner offices), motels, convenience store and the Salt Lake Community College South High facility. North and east of the site is pre-World War II residential neighborhoods. There are no adverse or hazardous conditions that threaten safety of the tenants. The site has been the location for a number of years, since the 1970s, of City Plaza and County High Rise. The projects have a history of high occupancy, which confirms the suitability of the site as an apartment location. The property is accessible from 200 East. Visibility is excellent from 2100 South, State Street, and 200 East.
Project Description – City Plaza and the County High Rise are established apartment projects, developed in the 1970s at approximately 1970 South 200 East in Salt Lake City. The size of the parcel for the two projects is 3.16 acres. The two projects have a combined 299 units. All 299 units will be tax credit units with project based rental subsidy. Seventy-five of the units, split between the two projects (38 units in one building and 37 units in the second building), will be one bedroom 59 percent AMI units renting for $915. The remaining 223 one bedroom units will include 111 units at 36% AMI with maximum rent of $558 and 112 units at 38% with maximum rents of $589. City Plaza is a seven story Senior project with 149 one bedroom units at 510 square feet. There is also one two bedroom unit at 37% AMI with maximum rent of $689 in the City Plaza. The building has a leasing office, community room activities room, laundry, and maintenance shop. The County High Rise is a 16 story building with 149 one bedroom units. The one bedroom units in the County High Rise have 560 square feet. The County High Rise features a leasing office, community room, activities room. For the two properties there are 131 standard surface parking stalls and 13 stalls can be designated ADA if necessary.
Conclusions and Opinions – The Salt Lake County apartment market has been experiencing a shortage of affordable rental housing for a number of years. The countywide vacancy rate has been below four percent for eight consecutive years. Rental rates are increasing at about seven percent annually. Affordability has declined as rents have increased putting demand pressure on tax credit projects. Consequently tax credit projects are nearly 100 percent occupied. Given these market conditions the rehabilitated City Plaza and the County High Rise will, in my opinion will continue to have high levels of occupancy. I rate market feasibility as above average and risk as very low. With project based vouchers City Plaza and the County High Rise will continue to have high rates of occupancy and long waiting lists.
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute provided projections for senior households. The number of Senior renter households in Salt Lake County is projected to increase by 5,323 households by 2025, an annual rate of growth of 4.1% Table 1. This is much higher than the growth rate for all households of all ages of 2.3%. By 2025, the number of senior households facing a severe housing cost burden is projected to rise to 7,312 households, an increase of nearly 1,372 households Table 2. It’s clear the demand for affordable Senior housing will grow rapidly over the next six years.
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Table 1 Projections of Change in Senior Households in Salt Lake County
Households Households Tenure 2019 2025 Change Owner 78,390 97,633 19,243 Renter 19,944 25,267 5,323 Total 98,334 122,900 24,566 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Demographic Estimates and Projections.
Table 2 Projections of Change in Senior Households with Severe Housing Cost Burdens in Salt Lake County
Households Households Tenure 2019 2025 Change Owner 7,679 9,453 1,774 Renter 5,940 7,312 1,372 Total 13,619 16,764 3,145
Positives and Negatives – The many positives associated with the City Plaza and the County High Rise have been discussed in the study; low capture rates, rising demand for housing due to rapid demographic and economic growth, insufficient supply of tax credit units, rapidly increase housing prices that are excluding families from homeownership, Salt Lake County’s shortage of affordable housing, low rental vacancy rates and the very attractive rental rates for one bedroom units.
The only negative is the size of the one bedroom units at 510 and 560 square feet. The units are about 100 to 125 square feet smaller than new Senior tax credit units.
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I. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
1. Number of units by: a. Number of bedrooms and baths.
Characteristics of Tax Credit Units City Plaza and County High Rise
AMI Type Number Target Base Rent* Square Feet Tax Credit Units 224 1 bedroom/1 bath 112 38% $589 510 1 bedroom/1 bath 111 36% $558 560 1 bedroom/1 bath (market rate) 37 59% $915 510 1 bedroom/1 bath (market rate) 38 59% $915 560 2 bedroom/1 bath 1 37% $689 560 Total Units 299 *Utilities paid by project owner. b. Income limit as a percentage of AMI.
Income Limits for City Plaza and County High Rise
36% 37% 38% 59% Median AMI AMI AMI AMI One Person $57,900 $20,844 $21,423 $22,002 $34,161 Two Persons $66,200 $23,832 $24,494 $25,156 $39,058
c. Unit size in square feet. See above 1a. d. Utility allowance for tenant paid utilities. None, all utilities paid by project owner. e. Proposed rents. See above 1a. 2. Target Population: Very low income: (1) senior, (2) disabled or (3) small households in Salt Lake County and Salt Lake City. a. Income restrictions. See above 1b. 4% PAB/LIHTC restriction for 50 years. b. Proposed housing assistance. HUD’s Rental Assistance Demonstration (RAD) project based vouchers. c. Special needs set asides. None. 3. Utilities to be paid by tenants: None. 4. Description of market area. Salt Lake County
5. Description of structures: An existing 299-unit public housing apartment project. The total parcel size is 3.16 acres. One residential building (known as City Plaza) is seven (7)-story structure, according to tax records it was built in 1973. This building features a leasing office, community room, activities room, laundry, and maintenance shop. The property contains a total approximately 132,715 SF of gross building area.
The second building (known as High Rise) is sixteen (16)-story structure, according to tax records it
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 7 was built in 1975. This building features a leasing office, community room, activities room. The property contains a total of one hundred thirty two one bedroom units and a total of approximately 120,288 SF of gross building area a. Number of buildings. Two buildings b. Design (walk-up, elevator, etc.) and number of stories. Elevator in buildings, 16 stories and 7 stories. c. Unit and common amenities: Two leasing offices, two common rooms, and two activity rooms. d. Site amenities and parking.131 standard surface parking stalls and if needed 13 are designated as ADA stalls. 6. Status or date of architectural plans. TBD. a. Name of architect. TBD b. Copy of floor plans and elevations – Attached. 7. For Rehabilitation: Project is a rehab. a. Description of the methodology for rehab. Draft scope of work attached. b. Identification of any existing assisted housing programs at the property. Currently public housing convert to Section 8 Project Based Vouchers. c. Current Occupancy levels. 100% occupied with wait list. Attached rent roll. d. Proposed rents. See AMI targeting in 1a 8. Projected date for construction start and completion, and start of leasing. Start Q3 2020 and end Q4 2021.
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II. MARKET AREA ECONOMY
Primary Market Area - The primary market area is Salt Lake County. The boundaries of the PMA are shown in Map 1. The housing market is a large dynamic market not confined to municipal boundaries within the county. City Plaza and County High Rise will draw residents from throughout the county but most likely many residents will come from Salt Lake City. No secondary market was defined.
Site Characteristics – The site of the existing 299 units at City Plaza and County High Rise is adjacent to the Salt Lake County office complex and one block east of State Street, a main north-south arterial in Salt Lake County. The site is one block east of the State Street commercial corridor, which includes sit-down restaurants, fast food restaurant, commercial office space (O.C. Tanner offices), motels, convenience store and the Salt Lake Community College South High facility. North and east of the site is pre-World War II residential neighborhoods. There are no adverse or hazardous conditions that threaten safety of the tenants. The site has been the location for a number of years, since the 1970s, of City Plaza and County High Rise. The projects have a history of high occupancy, which confirms the suitability of the site as an apartment location. The property is accessible from 200 East. Visibility is excellent from 2100 South, State Street, and 200 East. Suitability of the site as for apartments is above average.
Map 1 Primary Market Area: Salt Lake County and Municipalities City Plaza and County High Rise
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Market Characteristics – Typically a county is designated the primary market area for a tax credit project. Using county boundaries is generally an appropriate PMA geographic area and most of the data required in the Utah Housing Corporation’s format is county level data.
The boundaries and municipalities for the primary market area are shown in Map 1. The characteristics of the primary market are presented in the study to provide a demographic, economic, and rental market context as well as to satisfy the requirements of the Utah Housing Corporation’s market study guidelines. Salt Lake County has a population of 1.15 million and Salt Lake City has a population of 200,591. Salt Lake City is the largest city in Utah.
Neighborhood Characteristics (Map 2) Access to Job Opportunities – Within a three mile radius of the site there are over 100,000 jobs, including the 70,000 jobs in downtown Salt Lake City and the 35,000 jobs in South Salt Lake. Office worker is the occupation with largest number jobs with over 50,000 jobs including the Salt Lake County Government Complex adjacent west of site. Retail establishments and restaurants are also major source of employment with over 20,000 jobs.
Health Care and Commercial Services - Intermountain Medical Center’s 100 acre campus is located four miles directly south of the site. Intermountain Medical Center is the premier tertiary medical campus in the Intermountain West with centers of excellence in cardiovascular medicine, cancer care, outpatient care, women's and newborn care, Level 1 trauma and emergency medicine, and pulmonary care. Intermountain Medical Center serves as the flagship medical facility for the Intermountain Healthcare system. IHC has clinics at 900 East and 2000 South and a new Sugar House clinic at Wilmington Avenue and 1300 East.
The Sugar House commercial center is 2.5 east. Whole Foods, Barnes and Noble, Old Navy are anchors. The Brickyard Shopping Center is two miles southeast. Harmon’s grocery store is located in the center. Walgreens Drug is on 900 East and 2100 South. One mile northwest is the 300 West big box corridor (2100 South to 1000 South) with Home Depot, Costco, Lowe’s, WalMart, and Target. And three miles north is the Central Business District of Salt Lake City, anchored by City Creek Mall (700,000 square feet) and Gateway Mall (650,000 square feet).
Senior Centers – The Columbus Senior Center of South Salt Lake is located at 2531 South 400 East about one mile north east. The Senior center operates Monday through Friday from 8:30 to 2:30. Lunch, socials, activities are provided. The Liberty Senior Center at 700 South and 251 East is within two miles of City Plaza and the County High Rise.
Public Transportation(Map 2) - An on and off ramp to Interstate 15, the major north/south freeway for the state and Salt Lake County is 1.5 miles west of City Plaza and the County High Rise. The light rail TRAX station at Central Point Station (221 West 2100 South) is within one half mile of the two apartment projects. TRAX has departures every 15 minutes from 6:16 AM to 12:14 AM. UTA provides bus service along State Street (Routes 200 and 202 north/south).
Major roads nearby are: State Street a major north/south intercity state highway is just a few hundred feet west of the County High Rise and City Plaza. State Street and 2100 South has an average daily traffic county of 30,000 vehicles. At 2100 South and 200 East the average daily traffic count is 19, vehicles. Two blocks west of the site is Main Street, another north south major arterial
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in Salt Lake County. The average daily traffic count for Main Street and 2100 South intersection is 9,400 vehicles. Map 2 Public Transit in Salt Lake City (Green line service every 15 minutes, and TRAX line two blocks west, dotted lines)
Crime Rate - The crime rates in Salt Lake County and Salt Lake City are above the statewide rate. The most recent published data show that the overall crime rate for the county was 39.08 incidents per 1,000 persons Table 1. Statewide the rate is 25.50. The crime rate in Salt Lake City is high at 68.43 incidents/1,000 persons. The relatively high crime rate is due to the high level of commercial activity and development in Salt Lake City.
Table 1 Crime Rate in Salt Lake County and Salt Lake City - 2018 (Incidents Reported)
Salt Lake Salt Lake Type of Crime County City Homicide 36 11 Rape 739 219 Robbery 924 413 Aggressive Assault 2,520 814 Burglary 5,396 1,573 Larceny 30,768 9,514 Motor Vehicle Theft 4,635 1,291 Arson 93 31 Crime Rate/1,000 39.08 68.43 State Crime Rate/1,000 25.50 25.50 Source: Utah Department of Public Safety. City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 11
Map 3 Aerial Photograph of City Plaza and County High Rise and Surrounding Amenities
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City Plaza
County High Rise
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 13
City Plaza and County High Rise
200 East Looking North
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III. ECONOMIC CONTEXT
Employment Base – In 2018 Salt Lake County’s employment base had a total of 718,017 jobs Table 1. Salt Lake County accounts for about half of all jobs in the state. The largest employment sectors are: retail trade with 73,998 jobs, health care with 67,046 jobs and manufacturing with 56,670 jobs. The local economy is primarily a service based economy supported by rapid demographic growth.
Table 1 Percent Share of Employment by Sector in Salt Lake County – 2018
% Sector Employment Share Retail Trade 73,998 10.30% Health Care 67,046 9.33% Manufacturing 56,670 7.89% Professional Scientific 56,608 7.88% Admin Support 53,267 7.41% Accommodation & Food Service 51,342 7.15% State Government 48,683 6.78% Finance and Insurance 47,619 6.63% Local Government 45,377 6.32% Construction 40,072 5.58% Transportation and Warehousing 35,630 4.96% Wholesale Trade 32,116 4.47% Other Services 21,780 3.03% Information 20,200 2.81% Management of Companies 15,883 2.21% Private Education 15,512 2.16% Real Estate and Rental 11,125 1.55% Federal Government 11,323 1.58% Arts, Entertainment 9,497 1.32% Mining 2,853 0.40% Utilities 1,530 0.21% Forestry 250 0.03% Total 718,381 100.00% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Growth Sectors - Health care has been the most important growth sector over the past seventeen years. Since 2001 health care employment has increased from 40,400 jobs to 67,000 jobs, an increase of 26,653 jobs. The second ranked sector, in terms of numeric change, is professional, business and scientific services Table 2. The professional service sector has grown by 26,406 jobs. Accommodation and food service is another major growth sector. In the 17 year period employment in this sector has increased by 14,000 jobs. The lack of much growth in the manufacturing sector is troubling because this sector is a high wage sector. Four sectors have less employment in 2018 than in 2001; forestry, management of companies, utilities, and information (due to loss of publishing and printing jobs).
Major Employers – The major employers in Salt Lake County are providers of educational services, government services and health care services. There is one manufacturing company L-3 among the top seven employers. University of Utah and Intermountain Health Care combine for close to 35,000 jobs in the local economy Table 3.
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Table 2 Employment Sectors Ranked by Numeric Change: Salt Lake County
Numeric Sector 2001 2018 Change % Chg. Health Care 40,393 67,046 26,653 66.0% Professional Scientific 30,202 56,608 26,406 87.4% Admin Support 39,182 53,267 14,085 35.9% Accommodation & Food Service 37,295 51,342 14,047 37.7% State Government 34,860 48,683 13,823 39.7% Retail Trade 61,077 73,998 12,921 21.2% Finance and Insurance 35,745 47,619 11,874 33.2% Private Education 5,909 15,512 9,603 162.5% Local Government 36,075 45,377 9,302 25.8% Transportation and Warehousing 27,416 35,630 8,214 30.0% Construction 33,754 40,072 6,318 18.7% Other Services 16,810 21,780 4,970 29.6% Wholesale Trade 28,773 32,116 3,343 11.6% Manufacturing 53,423 56,670 3,247 6.1% Real Estate and Rental 8,020 11,125 3,105 38.7% Arts, Entertainment 6,528 9,497 2,969 45.5% Federal Government 8,544 11,323 2,779 32.5% Mining 2,172 2,853 681 31.4% Forestry 281 250 -31 -11.0% Management of Companies 16,016 15,883 -133 -0.8% Information 20,498 20,200 -298 -1.5% Utilities 1,929 1,530 -399 -20.7% Total 544,902 718,318 173,416 31.8% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Table 3 Major Employers in Salt Lake County
Company Name Employees NAICS Sector University of Utah 16,000-18,000 Education Services Intermountain Health Care 14,000-16,000 Health Care and Social Assistance Salt Lake County 5000-6999 Public Administration L3 Communications Corp 3000-3999 Manufacturing ARUP Laboratories’ 2000-2999 Health Care and Social Assistance Delta Airlines 2000-2999 Transportation and Warehousing Discover Products 2000-2999 Finance and Insurance Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Employment Change and Unemployment – Leading up to the recession employment peaked in Salt Lake County in 2008 at just under 603,000 jobs. Employment had increased steadily from 2000 to 2008 at a 1.26 percent rate of growth, producing 57,000 new jobs in eight years Table 4 and Figure 1. In the 2009-2010 period 41,000 jobs were lost. The job recovery began in 2011 and has had eight solid years of gains. In 2018 the number of jobs in Salt Lake County reached 718,300 and the county now has 173,228 more jobs in 2018 than in 2000, a gain of 35 percent Table 5 and Map 1. The most recent annual unemployment rate for Salt Lake County is 3.0 percent for 2018 Table 6. In April of 2019 the unemployment rate was 2.7 percent. The local job market is very strong and supports the rising demand for housing, both owner and renter occupied housing.
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Table 4 Nonfarm Employment in Salt Lake County
Employment 2000 545,153 2001 544,714 2002 533,720 2003 527,955 2004 535,409 2005 555,055 2006 579,780 2007 601,224 2008 602,927 2009 580,474 2010 561,818 2011 583,122 2012 605,000 2013 624,000 2014 639,511 2015 661,271 2016 684,445 2017 700,449 2018 718,381 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Figure 1 Nonfarm Employment in Salt Lake County
750,000 718,381
700,000
650,000
600,000
545,153
550,000 561,818
500,000
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Table 5 Counties Ranked by Absolute Change in Nonfarm Employment
Numeric % Rank County 2001 2018 Change Change 1 Salt Lake 530,076 718,017 187,941 35.5% 2 Utah 149,774 258,857 109,083 72.8% 3 Davis 84,002 130,269 46,267 55.1% 4 Washington 34,155 68,288 34,133 99.9% 5 Weber 84,227 108,217 23,990 28.5% 6 Cache 41,216 59,598 18,382 44.6% 7 Summit 15,537 27,295 11,758 75.7% 8 Iron 13,532 19,157 5,625 41.6% 9 Tooele 11,209 16,134 4,925 43.9% 10 Wasatch 4,660 9,415 4,755 102.0% 11 Box Elder 17,271 20,849 3,578 20.7% 12 Uintah 9,296 12,865 3,569 38.4% 13 Duchesne 4,779 7,751 2,972 62.2% 14 Sevier 7,057 8,979 1,922 27.2% 15 Sanpete 6,604 8,515 1,911 28.9% 16 Grand 4,168 5,899 1,731 41.5% 17 Juab 2,637 3,575 938 35.6% 18 Millard 3,461 4,359 898 25.9% 19 Morgan 1,631 2,460 829 50.8% 20 Kane 2,847 3,587 740 26.0% 21 San Juan 3,776 4,338 562 14.9% 22 Carbon 8,291 8,842 551 6.6% 23 Beaver 1,857 2,390 533 28.7% 24 Rich 552 852 300 54.3% 25 Garfield 2,136 2,351 215 10.1% 26 Piute 271 261 -10 -3.7% 27 Wayne 1,100 1,064 -36 -3.3% 28 Daggett 428 391 -37 -8.6% 29 Emery 3,494 3,248 -246 -7.0% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Table 6 Unemployment Rate in Salt Lake County Unemployment Year Rate 2018 3.0% 2017 3.1% 2016 3.2% 2015 3.3% 2014 3.7% 2013 4.2% 2012 5.2% 2011 6.5% 2010 7.4% 2009 6.8% 2008 3.5% 2007 2.7% 2006 2.9% 2005 4.1% 2000 3.2% 1990 3.8% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
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Map 1 Percent Change in Employment by County, 2000-2018
Wage rates – Salt Lake County is a high wage county. The average wage is $54,144 fourteen percent above the state average wage Table 7. The highest wage sector is utilities with an average wage of $108,912. The highest wage, major employment sector (over 50,000 jobs) is manufacturing with an average wage of $63,264. Table 7 Nonfarm Average Wage in Salt Lake County – 2018 Sector Avg. Wage Utilities $108,912 Mining $87,576 Management of Companies $91,644 Professional Scientific $80,868 Federal Government $77,232 Finance and Insurance $79,080 Wholesale Trade $73,572 Information $76,152 Manufacturing $63,264 Real Estate and Rental $58,152 State Government $58,188 Construction $56,376 Transportation and Warehousing $53,160 Health Care $47,520 Admin Support $39,192 Local Government $39,648 Retail Trade $38,232 Other Services $37,884 Arts, Entertainment $38,040 Forestry $35,544 Private Education $35,436 Accommodation & Food Service $20,196 Total Salt Lake County $54,144 Utah $47,616 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 19
Recent Significant Expansions – eBay Inc. expanded its operations in Salt Lake County in 2015 with the opening of a new data center. Over the next ten years eBay will expand its local operations by 2,200 jobs. EBay currently employs 1,400 people in Salt Lake County. BioFire Diagnostics, a clinical diagnostics firm, will invest $100 million in expansion and hire over 650 in the next 10 years. Xi3 will expand by 500 jobs over the next five years. Xi3 designs high speed computers with many applications including the video gaming industry. EMC Corp, digital storage company, will expand its operation by 250 new jobs. Goldman Sachs has been expanding their operations in downtown Salt Lake City. The local Goldman Sachs offices, on Main Street in Salt Lake City, is the second largest office for the company in the U.S. Goldman’s labor force in Salt Lake City is approaching 3,000 employees.
Employment Trends and Forecast – In the last eight years (2010-2018) the average annual growth rate in employment has been 3.1 percent. Given the strength of Utah’s recovery, the state currently ranks in the top three among all states in relative job growth. The Kem Gardner Policy Institute’s, which publishes the official demographic and employment forecasts for the state and counties, forecasts a 2.4 percent annual growth rate in employment from 2017 to 2021 Figures 2-3. Employment growth is expected to slow slightly over the next few years, largely due to the labor shortage. Nevertheless from 2017 to 2021 job growth in Salt Lake County will increase by 71,600 jobs. By 2021 the job market in Salt Lake County will total 777,000 jobs.
Figure 2 Employment Trend in Salt Lake County
800,000
750,000 777,038
700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000 571,523
500,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Figure 3 Forecast of Annual Percent Increase in Employment in Salt Lake County
4.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Employment growth in Salt Lake City has been relatively slow for several years. Part of the slower growth rate can be attributed the nearly built-out condition of land use in Salt Lake City. There is not much undeveloped commercial land remaining. In 2000 employment in Salt Lake City was 211,563. By 2017 employment had increased to 274,527 jobs, an average annual rate of change (AARC) of 1.52% well below the 3% rate of employment growth for the county Table 8.
Table 8 Employment in Salt Lake City
Employment 2000 211,563 2010 235,404 2011 239,967 2012 242,389 2013 245,103 2014 239,627 2015 246,935 2016 262,867 2017 274,527 AARC 1.52% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
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The largest employment sector in Salt Lake City is government. The headquarters of state government are located in Salt Lake City as well as the government offices of the city, the largest city in Utah. There are 63,107 government jobs in Salt Lake City, which includes employees of the University of Utah. Government employment accounts for 23 percent of the employment in Salt Lake City. The second ranked sector is retail trade, wholesale trade, and transportation. Eighty percent of the jobs in this sector are retail trade Table 9.
Table 9 Share Employment in Salt Lake City By Sector
Employment % Share Total 274,527 100.00% Mining 941 0.34% Construction 8,967 3.27% Manufacturing 26,329 9.59% Retail Trade, Wholesale Trade,Trans 50,310 18.33% Information 6,663 2.43% Financial Activities 17,444 6.35% Profession and Business Services 46,265 16.85% Healthcare and Private Education 22,996 8.38% Leisure & Hospitality 23,581 8.59% Other Services 7,924 2.89% Government 63,107 22.99% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Less than one percent of the workforce in Salt Lake City is in mining, the highest wage sector. The average wage in mining was $132,780 in 2017. The second highest wage sector was financial activities with an average pay of $83,376. Only six percent of the jobs in Salt Lake City are in this sector Table 10.
Table 10 Average Pay by Sector in Salt Lake City, 2017
Sector Average Pay Total $59,076 Mining $132,780 Construction $67,212 Manufacturing $65,244 Trade, Trans. $56,400 Information $74,220 Financial Activities $83,376 Profession and Business Services $71,256 Healthcare and Private Education $47,316 Leisure & Hospitality $28,524 Other Services $37,380 Government $57,588 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Commuting by Residents of Salt Lake City– Each day 194,143 individuals who live outside Salt Lake City travel into the city to work while 53,801 residents of Salt Lake City travel outside the city to work. The city has a high level in-commuting, which reflects the large employment base (274,000 jobs) in the city Map 2.
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Map 2 Commuting Inflows and Outflows for Salt Lake City
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IV. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Demographic Profile – Table 1 provides a demographic profile of Salt Lake County for 2018. The population of Salt Lake County was 1,145,846 in 2018 which included 403,170 households. The average household size was 2.80 persons and the median age of the population was 33.4 years. The population of Salt Lake County increased from 901,000 in 2000 to 1,145,846 in 2018 Figure 1.
Table 1 Demographic Profile of Salt Lake County, 2018
Number Population 1,145,846 Natural Increase 11,857 Births 18,281 Deaths 6,423 Net Migration 6,871 Growth 18,729 Households 403,170 Average Size 2.80 Median Age Years 33.4 Source: Kem Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah.
Figure 1 Population Trend in Salt Lake County Average Annual Growth Rate of 1.3%
1,200,000 1,145,846 1,150,000
1,100,000
1,050,000
1,000,000
950,000
900,000 901,000 850,000
800,000
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 24
The 25 percent increase in the county’s population since 2000 has added 228,730 individuals. The average annual growth of the population over this eighteen-year period was 1.34 percent. Of Utah’s 29 counties Salt Lake County ranks 17th in percent increase since 2000 Table 2. Since 2000 Salt Lake City’s population has been growing only .55% annually, Table 2A, less than half the rate of the county. Table 2 Counties Ranked by Population Growth Rate 2000 to 2018 Numeric Annual County 2000 2018 % Chg. Change Rate of Change Wasatch County 15,215 32.931 116.4% 17,716 4.4% Washington County 90,354 173,226 91.7% 82,872 3.7% Utah County 368,536 643,068 74.5% 274,532 3.1% Morgan County 7,129 12,491 75.2% 5,362 3.2% Tooele County 40,735 60,862 49.4% 20,127 2.3% Iron County 33,779 52,882 56.6% 19,103 2.5% Uintah County 25,224 38,328 52.0% 13,104 2.4% Duchesne County 14,371 21,727 51.2% 7,356 2.3% Juab County 8,238 12,542 52.2% 4,304 2.4% Davis County 238,994 354,129 48.2% 115,135 2.2% Cache County 91,391 128,685 40.8% 37,294 1.9% Summit County 29,736 41,436 39.3% 11,700 1.9% Sanpete County 22,763 30,362 33.4% 7,599 1.6% Weber County 193,566 256,282 32.4% 62,716 1.6% Box Elder County 42,745 55,720 30.4% 12,975 1.5% Kane County 6,046 7,886 30.4% 1,840 1.5% Salt Lake County 902,843 1,145,486 26.9% 242,643 1.3% Daggett County 921 1,136 23.3% 215 1.2% Rich County 1,961 2,409 22.8% 448 1.1% Grand County 8,485 10,259 20.9% 1,774 1.1% Sevier County 18,842 22,357 18.7% 3,515 1.0% San Juan County 14,413 16,714 16.0% 2,301 0.8% Beaver County 6,005 6,935 15.5% 930 0.8% Piute County 1,435 1,624 13.2% 189 0.7% Garfield County 4,735 5,356 13.1% 621 0.7% Wayne County 2,509 2,778 10.7% 269 0.6% Millard County 12,405 13,508 8.9% 1,103 0.5% Carbon County 20,422 22,035 7.9% 1,613 0.4% Emery County 10,860 10,851 -0.1% -9 0.0% State 2,230,202 3,193,415 43.2% 963,213 2.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Kem Gardner Policy Institute.
Table 2A Salt Lake City Population Year Population 2000 181,740 2010 186,571 2011 188,181 2012 189,715 2013 191,661 2014 191,398 2015 191,737 2016 194,182 2017 200,572 2018 200,591 AARC 0.55% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 25
Components of Demographic Change – Salt Lake County’s population growth is expected to increase significantly over the 2017-2022 period due to increased rates of net in-migration. Natural increase will remain steady at around 12,000 individuals but net in-migration jumps from less than 3,000 individuals in 2015 to nearly 6,900 in 2018. During these high growth years the county’s population will increase by over 18,000 individuals annually. By 2022 the population growth slows to around 15,000 as the rate of net in-migration falls due to a projected softening in employment growth from three percent annually to two percent annually (discussed in previous section). By 2022 the population of Salt Lake County is projected to be 1,213,427 Table 3 and Figure 2. There are no population projections at the city level.
Table 3 Components of Demographic Change, Salt Lake County
Natural Net Population Total Births Deaths Increase Migration Change Population 2011 17,970 5,653 12,317 2,447 14,765 1,046,461 2012 17,689 5,933 11,756 2,118 13,875 1,060,336 2013 18,221 6,138 12,083 -1,619 10,464 1,070,799 2014 17,801 6,098 11,703 -1,628 10,075 1,080,874 2015 17,565 6,664 10,901 2,875 13,776 1,094,650 2016 17,529 6,535 10,994 3,229 14,223 1,108,872 2017 18,199 6,246 11,953 6,292 18,245 1,127,117 2018 18,281 6,423 11,857 6,871 18,729 1,145,846 2019 18,343 6,603 11,740 6,471 18,211 1,164,057 2020 18,368 6,786 11,581 5,833 17,414 1,181,471 2021 18,365 6,068 12,297 4,606 16,903 1,198,374 2022 18,338 6,218 12,120 2,934 15,054 1,213,427 Source: Kem Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah.
Figure 2 Population Estimates and Projections for Salt Lake County
1,250,000 1,213,427
1,200,000
1,150,000 1,145,846
1,100,000
1,050,000
1,000,000
950,000
900,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population and Household Projections – The Kem Gardner Policy Institute has recently published the official population and households projections for Utah counties and the state. This work has been funded by the Utah State Legislature. The estimates and projections are used to develop state policy
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 26 for water, roads, and economic development. Over the next six years population growth will increase at an annual rate of 1.5 percent, while the number of households will grow by 2.0 percent annually. Household growth is at a slightly faster pace due to the declining household size. Over the six year period the average household size will drop from 2.82 individuals to 2.78 individuals.
Table 4 Projections for Salt Lake County: Population and Households
Average Household Population % Chg. Households % Chg. Size 2016 1,108,872 --- 386,476 --- 2.83 2017 1,127,117 1.6% 394,665 2.1% 2.82 2018 1,145,846 1.7% 403,170 2.2% 2.80 2019 1,164,057 1.6% 411,503 2.1% 2.79 2020 1,181,471 1.5% 419,499 1.9% 2.78 2021 1,198,374 1.4% 427,608 1.9% 2.77 2022 1,213,427 1.3% 435,121 1.8% 2.78 AAGR ---1.5% --- --2.0% ------Source: Kem Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah.
Building Trends Compared to Household Trends – Salt Lake County, as well as the state, is currently faced with a shortage of housing. In the past few years the increase in households has been greater than the number of new housing units produced by the home building industry. From 2011 to 2017 the number of households in Salt Lake County increased by 50,774 while the number of housing units increased by only 38,240 units, a deficit of 12,354 units Table 6. Of course what has happened in this case is the vacancy rate has been reduced for both owner occupied units (for sale an unoccupied) and rental units. These 12,354 households are not left homeless. To meet the anticipated increase in housing demand over the next five years the number of new housing units (renter and owner occupied) produced will need to be around 8,100 units annually.
Table 6 Household and Housing Units Trends for Salt Lake County
Increase Deficit/Surplus Increase in in Housing (Housing Units to Year Households Households Units Households) 2010 343,891 ------2011 351,852 7,961 2,399 -5,562 2012 359,380 7,528 2,934 -4,594 2013 365,373 5,993 5,153 -840 2014 371,920 6,547 6,529 -18 2015 379,320 7,400 6,077 -1,323 2016 386,476 7,156 8,328 1,172 2017 394,665 8,189 7,000 -1,189 Total 2010 to 2017 50,774 38,420 -12,354 2018 403,170 8,504 To meet future growth 2019 411,503 8,333 in households the number of new 2020 419,499 7,997 housing units needs to
2021 427,608 8,109 average 8,100 units 2022 435,121 7,513 annually; 2018-2022. Source: Kem Gardner Policy Institute and Ivory -Boyer Construction Database, University of Utah.
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Population and Household Characteristics - The age structure of the population in Salt Lake County is very similar to the state due to the size of Salt Lake County, which represents about 36 percent of the state’s population. The median age is slightly higher in the county at 33.4 percent compared to 29.2 percent for the state Table 7.
Households by type for Salt Lake County show fewer family households. Nearly seventy percent of households are family households but only 25 percent of all households are traditional husband-wife with children under 18 years. Thirty-one percent of all households have a member over 60 years of age Table 8.
Household Income – The median household income in Salt Lake County in 2017 was $71,471 Table 9. This figure is nearly five percent higher than the statewide average of $68,358. Twenty-one percent of all households in Salt Lake County receive Social Security compared to 22 percent statewide. Only 6.9 percent of the population has been on food stamps in the past 12 months. Unfortunately there are no data at the county level of wage rates by occupation.
Households by Tenure, Size and Age – There were 123,600 renters in Salt Lake County in 2017. (I believe this number to be two to three thousand too low; in 2016 the Census estimated renter occupied households at 123,300. Several projects reached the market in 2017 with a few thousand units). Just over 60 percent of all renters were one and two person households Table 10, a surprisingly high share. Large renter households of five persons or more have a smaller share of the rental market than at the statewide level. There are 15,905 large renter households in the county representing 12.8 percent of renter households. Senior renters (65 years+) account for 9.1 percent of all renter households Table 11. There are 11,289 renter households in Salt Lake County with a member over 65 years of age. The median income of all renters in Salt Lake County in 2017 was $45,405 compared to $77,789 for owners. Twenty-one percent of all renters have incomes below $20,000 Table 12.
The demographic trends show a large county with relatively slow rates of growth but large absolute growth. The county remains the largest housing market in the state and is characterized by fewer traditional families and a rapidly growing Senior renter population.
Table 7 Population by Age Group in Salt Lake County – 2017 Population % Share Total 1,135,649 100.0% Under 5 years 87,445 7.7% 5 to 9 years 86,309 7.6% 10 to 14 years 87,445 7.7% 15 to 19 years 78,360 6.9% 20 to 24 years 79,495 7.0% 25 to 34 years 187,382 16.5% 35 to 44 years 166,940 14.7% 45 to 54 years 127,193 11.2% 55 to 59 years 57,918 5.1% 60 to 64 years 57,918 5.1% 65 to 74 years 72,682 6.4% 75 to 84 years 32,934 2.9% 85 years and over 14,763 1.3% Median age (years) 33.4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 28
Table 8 Household Types in Salt Lake County – 2017
Number % Share % Share for State Total households 376,314 100.0 100.0 Family households (families) 262,872 69.8% 75.2 With own children under 18 years 124,244 33.0% 39.5 Husband-wife family 206,442 54.9% 61.0 With own children under 18 years 94,515 25.1% 31.7 Male householder, no wife present 18,955 5.0% 4.4 With own children under 18 years 10,682 2.8% 2.2 Female householder, no husband present 37,475 10.0% 9.7 With own children under 18 years 19,047 5.1% 5.5 Nonfamily households 113,442 30.1% 24.8 Householder living alone 85,535 22.7% 18.7 Householder living alone and 65 years & older 27,226 7.2% 8.6 Households with individuals under 18 years 138,107 36.7% 43.3 Households with individuals 60 years and over 117,786 31.3% 20.0 Average household size 2.98 ( X ) 3.10 Average family size 3.54 ( X ) 3.56 Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Table 9 Households by Income in Salt Lake County - 2017
Households by Income Households % Share Total households 376,314 100.0% Less than $10,000 16,985 4.5% $10,000 to $14,999 11,668 3.1% $15,000 to $19,999 11,394 3.0% $20,000 to $24,999 12,257 3.3% $25,000 to $29,999 13,467 3.6% $30,000 to $34,999 14,561 3.9% $35,000 to $39,999 12,668 3.4% $40,000 to $44,999 14,868 4.0% $45,000 to $49,999 13,817 3.7% $50,000 to $59,999 30,459 8.1% $60,000 to $74,999 46,569 12.4% $75,000 to $99,999 54,722 14.5% $100,000 to $124,999 45,140 12.0% $125,000 to $149,000 24,546 6.5% $150,000 to $199,999 26,857 7.1% $200,000 or more 26,336 7.0% Median household income (dollars) $71,471 --- Mean household income (dollars) $91,338 ---
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
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Table 10 Households by Tenure and Household Size in Salt Lake County - 2017
% Share Households % Share for State Total 376,314 100.0% 100.0% Owner-occupied housing units 252,690 100.0% 100.0% 1-person household 42,813 16.9% 15.2% 2-person household 85,527 33.8% 30.5% 3-person household 40,473 16.0% 15.7% 4-person household 37,598 14.9% 15.6% 5-person household 25,344 10.0% 11.2% 6-person household 12,312 4.9% 6.8% 7-or-more-person household 8,623 3.4% 5.0% Renter-occupied housing units 123,624 100.0% 100.0% 1-person household 42,674 34.5% 26.9% 2-person household 33,852 27.4% 26.3% 3-person household 17,396 14.1% 16.7% 4-person household 13,797 11.2% 13.9% 5-person household 9,211 7.5% 8.2% 6-person household 4,208 3.4% 4.6% 7-or-more-person household 2,486 2.0% 3.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Table 11 Tenure by Age of Householder in Salt Lake County -2017
Households % Share Total 376,314 100.0% Owner-occupied housing units 252,690 100.0% 15 to 24 years 2,604 1.0% 25 to 34 years 32,731 13.0% 35 to 44 years 55,463 21.9% 45 to 54 years 49,894 19.7% 55 to 59 years 25,826 10.2% 60 to 64 years 25,705 10.2% 65 to 74 years 36,336 14.4% 75 to 84 years 16,794 6.6% 85 years and over 7,337 2.9% Renter-occupied housing units 123,624 100.0% 15 to 24 years 13,937 11.3% 25 to 34 years 42,333 34.2% 35 to 44 years 25,801 20.9% 45 to 54 years 18,082 14.6% 55 to 59 years 6,527 5.3% 60 to 64 years 5,655 4.6% 65 to 74 years 6,430 5.2% 75 to 84 years 3,480 2.8% 85 years and over 1,379 1.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
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Table 12 Income Distribution of Renters in Salt Lake County - 2017
Percent Of Renters All Renters 123,624 Less than $5,000 6,852 $5,000 to $9,999 5,475 $10,000 to $14,999 6,895 $15,000 to $19,999 7,223 $20,0000 to $24,999 6,736 $25,000 to $34,999 15,485 $35,000 to $49,999 17,968 $50,000 to $74,999 28,977 $75,000 to $99,999 12,186 $100,000 to $149,999 11,062 $150,000 or more 4,765 Median Income of Renters $45,405 Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Changes in Tenure – Since 2000 the share of renters in Salt Lake County has increased from 31 percent of all households to nearly 32.8 percent Table 13. By 2017 the U.S. Census Bureau estimated the number of renter households at 123,600. In Salt Lake City the share of renter households has been nearly constant since 2010 at 51 percent of all households Table 13A. Salt Lake City is one of only four cities where renter occupied units outnumber owner occupied units. The three other cities are Logan, Provo, and South Salt Lake. Table 13 Change in Tenure in Salt Lake County
Owner Renter Total Renter Household Households Households Share 2000 203,597 91,544 295,141 31.0% 2010 230,419 112,203 342,622 32.7% 2017 252,690 123,624 376,314 32.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Table 13 A Change in Tenure in Salt Lake City
Owner Renter Total Renter Household Households Households Share 2000 36,592 34,869 71,461 48.8% 2010 36,073 38,440 74,513 51.5% 2017 38,166 39,920 78,086 51.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Housing Cost Burden of Renters – The most recent housing cost burden data is provided by HUD’s Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS), which includes the years 2012-2016. The need for affordable rental housing is illustrated by the number of renters with severe housing cost burdens; households paying more than 50% of their income for housing Table 14. In Salt Lake County 23,995 renter households had severe housing cost burdens (2012-2016) representing 20 percent of renters. Housing cost burdens for renter households in Salt Lake City are similar to the countywide measures. Twenty percent of all renters have a severe housing cost burden in Salt Lake City and nearly half of all renters pays more the 30 percent for housing, Table 14A.
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Table 14 Housing Cost Burden of Renters in Salt Lake County (2012-2016) Total >30% >50% Rents in % >30 % >50% Burden Burden Income Group Burden Burden <30% AMI 20,900 17,350 26,375 17.4% 14.5% 30% to 50% AMI 18,075 5,470 22,785 15.1% 4.6% >50% to 80% AMI 10,330 990 28,310 8.6% 0.8% >80% to 100% AMI 1,280 130 12,690 1.1% 0.1% >100% AMI 490 55 29,755 0.4% 0.0% Total 51,075 23,995 119,915 42.6% 20.0% Source: HUD CHAS (2012 to 2016).
Table 14A Housing Cost Burden of Renters in Salt Lake City (2012-2016) >30% >50% % >30 % >50% Burden Burden Total Burden Burden <30% AMI 8,265 6,600 11,365 21.2% 16.9% 30% to 50% AMI 5,780 1,330 7,865 14.8% 3.4% >50% to 80% AMI 2,470 205 7,840 6.3% 0.5% >80% to 100% AMI 210 0 3,235 0.5% 0.0% >100% AMI 90 10 8,770 0.2% 0.0% Total 18,815 8,145 39,070 48.2% 20.8%
Trend in Building Permits Issued for Rental Units – Apartment development in both Salt Lake County and Salt Lake City have been at record levels over the past five years. Since 2014 14,600 apartment units have received building permits in Salt Lake County and 5,912 units in Salt Lake City Table 15 and Figure 4. Despite the surge in new construction apartment conditions remain favorable for development with vacancy rates around three percent and rental rates increasing at six percent annually. Although the number of permits issued dropped off in 2017 it rebounded in 2018 and the level of construction activity will remain quite high over the next two to three years given the number of projects proposed. Through July of 2019 permits have been issued for 3,939 apartment units countywide. 2019 will almost certainly set a record for new apartment units, breaking the 2016 total of 4,461. Salt Lake City through July 2019 has issued permits for 2,472 apartment units. It looks like 2019 will be the biggest year for apartment construction in history for Salt Lake City rental market.
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Table 15 Permits Issued for New Apartment Units
Salt Lake Salt Lake Year County City 1994 1,235 251 1995 2,318 913 1996 2,673 125 1997 727 169 1998 1,473 136 1999 1,185 139 2000 1,024 241 2001 1,098 336 2002 733 159 2003 1,084 75 2004 607 396 2005 1302 660 2006 338 90 2007 598 342 2008 1,521 189 2009 2442 265 2010 541 73 2011 488 319 2012 538 150 2013 1,605 4 2014 3,326 1,161 2015 2,918 1,281 2016 4,461 2,953 2017 2,306 517 2018 2,951 749 2019 July. 3,939 2,472 Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database, Kem Gardner Policy Institute.
Figure 4 Permit Issued for Apartment Units in Salt Lake County and Salt Lake City
5,000 4,461 4,500 3,939 4,000 3,500 2,953 3,000 2,472 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 July
Salt Lake Salt Lake City
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V. COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT
Tax Credit Inventory 1988-2019- The total inventory of tax credit units in Salt Lake County is 14,854 units in 175 tax credit projects. Tax credit units represent 12.0 percent of the rental inventory in the county. The county ranks 6th in the share of its rental inventory devoted to tax credit units Table 1 and Map 1. The map shows the location not only of tax credit units but also project based apartments, and subsidized senior projects.
Table 1 Tax Credit Units as Percent of Rental Inventory – 2019 Total LIHTC LIHTC % Units Units Share Beaver 670 47 7.0% Box Elder 4,048 563 13.9% Cache 14,780 924 6.3% Carbon 2,129 240 11.3% Daggett 11 0.0% Davis 23,214 1,882 8.1% Duchesne 1,709 148 8.7% Emery 716 23 3.2% Garfield 351 9 2.6% Grand 1,163 215 18.5% Iron 5,552 794 14.3% Juab 630 28 4.4% Kane 478 47 9.8% Millard 907 6 0.7% Morgan 500 0 0.0% Piute 61 0 0.0% Rich 140 24 17.1% Salt Lake 123,624 14,854 12.0% San Juan 784 82 10.5% Sanpete 2,173 98 4.5% Sevier 1,668 145 8.7% Summit 3,882 671 17.3% Tooele 4,300 795 18.5% Uintah 2,512 157 6.3% Utah 55,338 1,885 3.4% Wasatch 2,731 250 9.2% Washington 17,463 1,659 9.5% Wayne 232 0 0.0% Weber 24,248 2,858 11.8% Total 295,777 28,404 9.6%
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Tax credit projects in Salt Lake County are heavily concentrated in the northern portion of the county. Salt Lake City with nearly 7,500 tax credit units accounts for more than half of all tax credit units in the county. The geographic distribution of projects is shown in Map 2.
Map 1 Geographic Distribution of Tax Credit Projects in Salt Lake County (Blues Stars = LIHTC projects, black triangles = project based apartments, magenta diamonds = subsidized senior projects)
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 35
There are eleven tax credit projects under construction in Salt Lake County. Ten are in Salt Lake City and one in Midvale. The ten projects have a total of 1,031 tax credit units Table 2. In addition to the under construction projects there are nine projects that have been approved. Three of the approved projects are in Salt Lake City. The nine approved projects have a total of 1,100 tax credit units, Table 3. Only two of the under construction and approved tax credit projects are Senior projects, Central Station in Murray and Centro Civico in Salt Lake City. The two Senior projects represent only five percent of the total tax credit units under construction and proposed.
Table 2 LIHTC Apartment Projects Under Construction, 2019
LIHTC Market Rate Name City Total Units Type Units Units Station at Midvale II Midvale 84 64 20 Non-Elderly Brinshore Salt Lake City 73 50 23 Non-Elderly Brinshore Salt Lake City 117 102 15 Non-Elderly Centro Civico Salt Lake City 61 61 0 Senior Cornell Apartments Salt Lake City 146 131 15 Non-Elderly Garden Lofts Salt Lake City 272 272 0 Non-Elderly Exchange A Salt Lake City 286 101 185 Non-Elderly Exchange B Salt Lake City 126 80 46 Non-Elderly Harris Apartments Salt Lake City 21 21 0 Non-Elderly Project Open Salt Lake City 90 70 20 Non-Elderly The Hub of Opportunity Salt Lake Co 99 89 10 Non-Elderly Total 1,375 1,041 334 Source: Utah Housing Corporation.
Table 3 LIHTC Apartment Projects Approved but not Under Construction Total Project City Units LIHTC Market Rate Type Jordan Bluffs Midvale 192 192 0 Non-Elderly Moda Meadowbrook Millcreek 145 145 0 Non-Elderly Artesian Spring III Murray 134 120 14 Non-Elderly Central Station Murray 65 52 13 Senior Ribbon Properties Salt Lake City 100 100 0 Non-Elderly Fifth East Apartments Salt Lake City 75 75 0 Homeless Sparks Salt Lake City 200 183 17 Non-Elderly Millcreek Station So. SLC 70 56 14 Non-Elderly Arcadia Phase II Sandy 177 177 0 Non-Elderly Total 1,158 1,100 58 Source: Utah Housing Corporation.
See map and profiles of comparables below. Ten comparables were selected that are somewhat comparable in size, age and location. The comparables include tax credit family projects and six tax credit projects for Seniors. Projects were not referenced or excluded base on characteristics and/or location. Only projects in Salt Lake City were considered. The occupancy rate for the comparable units is nearly 100 percent. Vacancy is less than two percent, reflecting just turnover.
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Map 2 Location of Comparable Senior and Non-Senior Tax Credit Projects in Salt Lake City City Plaza and County High Rise
Map Key Project Address Units A North Sixth 600 West North Temple 86 B Northgate 135 South 500 West 152 C Providence Place 309 East 100 South 125 D The Enclave at 1400 1400 South 300 West 210 E Capitol Villa 239 West 600 North 108 F Escalante 1040 North Redwood Road 80 G Liberty Wells 260 East 800 South 51 H Lowell 756 South 200 East 80 I Multi-Ethnic Senior 120 South 200 West 141 J Rendon Terrace 158 North 600 West 70
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TAX CREDIT FAMILY PROJECTS
North Sixth Apartments Northgate Apartments Providence Place Apartments The Enclave at 1400
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NORTH SIXTH APARTMENTS 600 West North Temple Salt Lake City 2015
Market Rate Units 0 Tax Credit Units 86 Vacancy Rate 0.0%
Bdrm Square Type Units AMI Feet Studio 5 25% 490 Studio 8 39% 490 One 9 39% 620 One 60 45% 620 Two 1 45% 990 Two 3 50% 990
Clubhouse Swimming Spa Fitness Covered Garages Laundry Washer/ Fireplace Utilities Quality Pool Hot Rm Parking Room Dryers Tub Tenant B+ yes no no yes garage garage no yes no Pays
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 39
NORTHGATE 135 South 500 West Year Built – 2000
Market Rate Units 178 Tax Credit Units 152 Vacancy Rate 0.0%
Bdrm Square Type Units AMI Feet 1 4 40% 670 1 22 50% 670 1 78 60% 670 2 4 40% 920 2 8 50% 920 2 36 60% 920
Clubhouse Swimming Spa Fitness Covered Garages Laundry Washer/ Fireplace Utilities Quality Pool Hot Rm Parking Room Dryers Tub Tenant A- no no no yes no underground no yes no Pays
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 40
PROVIDENCE PLACE 309 East 100 South Salt Lake City Year Built 2011
Market Rate Units 0 Tax Credit Units 125 Vacancy Rate 0.0%
Bdrm Type Units AMI Sq. Ft. Studio 36 60 478 1 44 60 670 2 4 45 945
Clubhouse Swimming Spa Fit- Covered Laundry Washer/ Fireplace Utilities Quality (community Pool Hot ness Parking Room Dryers room) Tub Rm Under Tenant Yes yes yes yes ground no yes no Pays B+
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THE ENCLAVE AT 1400 1400 South 300 West Salt Lake City 2015
Market Rate Units 0 Tax Credit Units 210 Vacancy Rate 0.0%
Bdrm Square Type Units AMI Feet 1 84 60% 694 2 104 60% 924 3 22 60% 1,235
Clubhouse Swimming Spa Fitness Covered Garages Laundry Washer/ Fireplace Utilities Quality Pool Hot Rm Parking Room Dryers Tub Tenant yes yes yes yes yes no no yes no pays B+
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TAX CREDIT SENIOR PROJECTS
Capitol Villa Escalante Senior Liberty Wells Lowell Apartments Multi-Ethnic Apartments Rendon Apartments
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Profile of Capitol Villa Apartments
Address 239 West 600 North City Salt Lake City Year Built 1981 Total Units 108 LIHTC Units 108 New/Rehab Acq/Rehab ADA 5 Elderly 108 Mental Health 0 One Bedroom Units 104 Square Footage 576 Two Bedroom Units 0 Square Feet 0 AMI Targets One Bedroom 33% 45 38% 45 43% 4 47% 4 52% 4 57% 6 Quality C+ Design Walk-up and elevator Source: Utah Housing Corporation.
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Profile of Escalante Senior Apartments
Address 1040 North Redwood Road City Salt Lake City Year Built 1975 Total Units 80 LIHTC Units 80 New/Rehab Acq/Rehab Project Type Sec 8 Elderly ADA 4 Elderly 72 Mental Health 4 One Bedroom Units 80 Square Footage 572 AMI Targets One Bedroom Units 40% 4 45% 28 49% 42 55% 6 Quality C Design Walk-up Source: Utah Housing Corporation.
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Profile of Liberty Wells/James Kier Senior Apartments
Address 260 East 800 South City Salt Lake City Year Built 2005 Total Units 51 LIHTC Units 51 New/Rehab New ADA 4 Elderly 41 Mental Health 5 One Bedroom Units 43 Square Footage 540 Two Bedroom Units 8 Square Footage 695 AMI Targets One Bedroom Unit 35% 13 40% 22 45% 8 Two Bedroom Unit 40% 6 50% 2 Quality A Design Walk-up and elevator Source: Utah Housing Corporation.
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Profile of Lowell Apartments
Address 756 South 200 East City Salt Lake City Year Built 1995 Total Units 80 LIHTC Units 80 New/Rehab New ADA 0 Elderly 79 Mental Health 0 One Bedroom Units 80 Square Footage 600 AMI Targets One Bedroom Units 48% 80 Quality B+ Design Walk-up & elevator Source: Utah Housing Corporation.
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Profile of Multi-Ethnic Senior Housing
Address 120 South 200 West City Salt Lake City Year Built 1981 Total Units 141 LIHTC Units 141 New/Rehab Rehab. ADA Units 5 Elderly Units 141 Mental Health Units 0 One Bedroom Units 141 Square Footage 540 Two Bedroom Units 0 Square Feet 0 AMI Targets AMI 30% 50 25% 5 35% 36 40% 30 50% 20 Quality B- Design High rise with elevator Source: Utah Housing Corporation.
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Profile of Rendon Terrace
Address 158 North 600 West City Salt Lake city Year Built 2011 Total Units 70 LIHTC Units 70 New/Rehab New ADA Units 3 Elderly Units Yes Mental Health Units NA One Bedroom Units 62 Square Footage 636,694 Two Bedroom Units 8 Square Feet 833 AMI Targets One Bedroom 49% 9 43% 38 35% 10 25% 5 Two Bedroom 49% 2 40% 4 35% 2 Quality B+ Design 3 story, elevator
Source: Utah Housing Corporation.
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Development of Market Rate Units in Salt Lake County 2000-2019 Since 2000 there have been 125 market rate apartment communities (excludes tax credit projects) developed throughout Salt Lake County Table 5. These projects have a total of 23,651 units. Twenty-five percent of the units developed are in Salt Lake City. In addition to Salt Lake City the other cities with at least a ten percent share of new apartment development are: Sandy, South Jordan, and West Jordan Table 6. About 6% of new apartments developed in the county since 2000 have been in West Valley City, a total of 1,341 units.
Table 5 Chronology of Major Market Rate Apartment Projects in Salt Lake County, 2000-2019
Yr. Apartment Community Completed Unit Address City Rockwell Village 2012 60 15204 South Marksman Wy. Bluffdale Beacon Hill 2014 144 15110 South Beacon Bluffdale Allegro 2002 258 13300 South Pony Express Draper Liberty Hills 2004 246 65 East Highland Drive Draper Parc at Day Dairy 2012 228 12100 South 400 East Draper Triton Terrace 2015 177 Bangerter Parkway & Vestry Draper Rosegate 2015 277 14075 South Bangerter Draper Draper Village 2016 181 12092 South Draper Crest Ln. Draper Parc West 2017 249 461 West 13490 South Draper Farm Gate 2010 496 5675 West 11800 South Herriman Solameer at Herriman 2012 134 13400 South Herriman Herriman Terrameer 2012 174 5223 West 12600 South Herriman Herriman Town Center 2017 304 12883 South Brundisi Way Herriman Park East 2017 70 1709 East Murray Holladay Rd Holladay San Moritz 2009 390 966 West Powder Hill Road Midvale Meadows at Riverwalk 2009 256 6840 South 70 West Midvale Tuscany Villas 2011 75 7500 South 1000 West Midvale Talavera at the Junction 2013 252 1004 West Tuscany View Midvale Lofts at 7800 2014 192 7650 South Euro Drive Midvale Villas at Fern Circle NA 36 8089 South Fern Circle Midvale Millcreek 9 NA 27 3225 South 900 East Millcreek Millcreek Towers NA 38 3668 South 900 East Millcreek Brickyard Apartments NA 24 3214 South 1100 East Millcreek Millcreek 9 NA 27 3225 South 900 East Millcreek Diamond Point NA 18 1060 East 3300 South Millcreek Lotus Tapestry 2018 42 832 East 3900 South Millcreek Frontgate 2009 128 4716 South Commerce Dr. Murray Lions Gate 2011 400 120 West Fireclay Ave Murray Artesian Springs I 2016 118 4205 South Main St. Murray Artesian Springs II 2017 84 4205 South Main St. Murray Metro at Fireclay I 2017 175 57 West Fireclay Avenue Murray Legacy Spring 2003 204 12600 South 4800 West Riverton Monarch Meadows 2004 248 4800 West 13400 South Riverton Meadows at Park Avenue 2016 135 12674 South Sienna Meadow Riverton North Gate Apartments 2001 155 500 West South Temple Salt Lake City Emigration Court 2004 238 335 South 500 East Salt Lake City Seasons at City Creek 2011 176 225 West North Temple Salt Lake City City Creek Landing 2011 111 50 South Main Street Salt Lake City Eastside Apartments 2011 180 350 South 600 East Salt Lake City BlueKoi 2011 20 1706 South 900 East Salt Lake City 644 City Station 2012 132 644 West North Temple Salt Lake City The Lotus 2012 84 338 East South Temple Salt Lake City
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Apartment Community Yr. Unit Address City Sugarhouse Apts. 2012 70 2057 South 1200 East Salt Lake City 21st and View 2013 31 2100 South View Street Salt Lake City Cityscape 2013 122 150 South 400 East Salt Lake City The Vue 2014 212 2130 South 1100 East Salt Lake City Liberty Village 2014 171 2124 McClelland Salt Lake City Liberty Gateway 2015 160 50 South 500 West Salt Lake City Newhouse 2015 61 550 East 500 South Salt Lake City Wilmington Flats 2015 105 1235 East Wilmington Ave. Salt Lake City West Station 2015 145 1750 West Gertie Avenue Salt Lake City Encore 2015 220 400 South 500 East Salt Lake City Seasons at Library Square 2015 119 306 East 500 South Salt Lake City Seasons on the Boulevard 2015 92 400 South Denver Street Salt Lake City Prana Townhomes 2015 21 255 West 800 South Salt Lake City The Element at Brickyard 2016 208 3130 South 1243 East Salt Lake City Greenprint 2017 60 840 South 200 West Salt Lake City Alta Gateway 2017 264 200 South 500 West Salt Lake City 4th West Apartments 2017 493 255 North 400 West Salt Lake City Liberty Crest 2017 177 150 South 200 East Salt Lake City 360 Apartments 2017 151 360 South 400 West Salt Lake City Moda-Bonneville 2017 168 252 South 500 East Salt Lake City Liberty Boulevard 2018 266 455 South 700 East Salt Lake City C9 Flats 2018 97 1075 South 200 West Salt Lake City Milargo 2018 265 250 West 200 South Salt Lake City Block 44 2018 213 380 East 400 South Salt Lake City District North 2018 148 233 North Redwood Road Salt Lake City Hardware Village West 2018 265 200 North 455 West Salt Lake City 21 by Urbana 2018 126 974 East 2100 South Salt Lake City The Meridian 2018 265 30 North Orange Street Salt Lake City Haxton Place 2018 39 35 South 900 East Salt Lake City Salt Flats 2019 81 447 East 100 South Salt Lake City Pierpont by Urbana 2019 84 315 West Pierpont Salt Lake City Sky House 2019 240 308 West North Temple Salt Lake City Aire Condos (rental) NA 30 996 South 200 East Salt Lake City Paragon Station Lofts NA 38 200 South 300 West Salt Lake City Sego 28 NA 28 425 East 700 South Salt Lake City Meadowbrook Station 2009 237 4010 Howick Street Salt Lake Co. Oquirrh Hills 2016 288 2700 South 8400 West Salt Lake Co. Legends at River Oaks 2000 448 9425 South Riverside Drive Sandy Liberty Bend 2009 93 9400 South 1300 East Sandy Rosegate 2011 159 9200 South 700 East Sandy Hills at Sandy 2012 55 120 East Sego Lily Drive Sandy Dry Creek at East Village 2015 275 124 East Dry Creek Ridge Sandy Cobblegate 2016 416 900 East 9000 South Sandy The East Village 2017 271 159 East Midvillage Blvd. Sandy Parc at City Center 2017 330 213 West Civic Center Dr. Sandy Axio 84 2017 332 8400 South State Street Sandy Icon 9700 2018 264 1881 East 9800 South Sandy The Ridge 2018 261 7611 Union Park Sandy Pinnacle Southtowne 2009 276 420 Cadbury Lane South Jordan San Tropez 2009 250 3740 West 11800 South South Jordan San Marino 2010 330 700 West 10000 South South Jordan Crossing at Daybreak 2011 315 4950 West Frogs Leap Dr. South Jordan District Heights 2012 260 11100 River Heights South Jordan Promenade at the District 2013 170 11239 South River Heights South Jordan Legacy Cottages 2015 186 1890 West Jordan Parkway South Jordan City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 51
Apartment Community Yr. Unit Address City Jordan Station 2015 302 10426 South Jordan Gateway South Jordan South Ridge 2015 145 10668 South Jordan Gateway South Jordan The Flats at South Jordan 2018 120 118 South District View South Jordan Brick Stone Apts 2011 100 220 East 3300 South South Salt Lake Meadow Brook Lofts 2016 80 3808 South West Temple South Salt Lake Riverfront 2016 288 745 West Fine Street South Salt Lake Ritz Classic 2018 287 2265 South State Street South Salt Lake VIA 2017 80 3808 West Temple South Salt Lake Liberty Crossing 2018 95 2209 South Main South Salt Lake South Main NA 112 2550 South Main South Salt Lake The Zeller 2018 292 2255 South 300 East South Salt Lake Silvercrest 2012 186 4500 South 2200 West Taylorsville Madrona NA 37 4560 South 700 East Taylorsville Cascade Springs 2000 192 2812 West 8580 South West Jordan Willow Cove VI 2000 128 9300 South Redwood Rd West Jordan Woodgate 2002 288 3850 West 7000 South West Jordan Liberty Landing 2009 216 7000 South Campus View Dr. West Jordan Boulder Canyon 2009 280 7800 South 5600 West West Jordan Serengeti Springs 2010 296 7800 South 6500 West West Jordan Wilshire Apartments 2010 278 6400 West New Bingham West Jordan Willow Cove VII 2012 72 9300 South Redwood Rd. West Jordan West Village 2012 72 7850 South 3200 West West Jordan Novi at Jordan Valley Station 2017 236 3354 West 8640 South West Jordan Station at Gardner Mill 2018 272 7659 South 1300 West West Jordan Affinity 56 2018 255 8088 South Uinta View Way West Jordan Gladstone Place 2018 187 7800 South Mountain View West Jordan Village at River’s Edge 2004 244 1225 West 3300 South West Valley E-Gate 2010 304 2264 West Ruddy Rd. West Valley Fairbourne Station 2012 225 2900 Lehman Avenue West Valley Pinnacle Highbury 2013 290 2800 South 5600 West West Valley Sagegate at Haynes 2015 278 5600 West 2600 South West Valley Total 23,651 Source: Cushman & Wakefield.
Table 6 New Apartment Units by City, 2000-2019
City Units % Share Salt Lake City 6,856 29.0% Sandy 2,904 12.3% West Jordan 2,772 11.7% South Jordan 2,354 10.0% Draper 1,616 6.8% West Valley 1,341 5.7% South Salt Lake 1,334 5.6% Midvale 1,201 5.1% Herriman 1,108 4.7% Murray 905 3.8% Riverton 587 2.5% Taylorsville 223 0.9% Bluffdale 204 0.9% Millcreek 176 0.7% Holladay 70 0.3% Total 23,651 100.0% Source: Cushman & Wakefield.
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Under Construction and Proposed Units Currently in Salt Lake County there are 5,207 apartment units under construction; 1,713 are in Salt Lake City, one third of units under construction, Table 7 and Figure 1. In addition to the under construction units there are another 8,642 units proposed in the county. Over half of the proposed units are in Salt Lake City, 4,525 units. West Valley does not have any units under construction however, there are 767 units proposed, Table 8 and Figure 2.
Table 7 Apartment Units Under Construction by City, Summer 2019
City Units % Share Salt Lake City 1,713 32.9% Draper 859 16.5% South Jordan 703 13.5% South Salt Lake 506 9.7% Murray 458 8.8% Herriman 422 8.1% Bluffdale 251 4.8% Cottonwood Heights 124 2.4% Millcreek 91 1.7% Riverton 80 1.5% Total 5,207 Source: Commerce Real Estate Solutions, Cushman & Wakefield Alliance, Salt Lake City
Figure 1 Apartment Units Under Construction by City in Salt Lake County, 2019
Salt Lake City 1,713 Draper 859 South Jordan 703 South Salt Lake 506 Murray 458 Herriman 422 Bluffdale 251 Cottonwood Heights 124 Millcreek 91 Riverton 80
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Source: Commerce Real Estate Solutions, Cushman & Wakefield Alliance, Salt Lake City.
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Table 8 Proposed Apartment Units by City – 2019
City Units % Share Salt Lake City 4,525 52.4% Draper 983 11.4% West Valley 767 8.9% Midvale 566 6.5% West Jordan 546 6.3% Millcreek 422 4.9% Sandy 307 3.6% Cottonwood Heights 251 2.9% South Jordan 188 2.2% South Salt Lake 87 1.0% Total 8,642 100.0% Source: Commerce Real Estate Solutions, Cushman & Wakefield Alliance, Salt Lake City.
Figure 2 Apartment Units Proposed by City in Salt Lake County, 2019
Salt Lake Ciity 4,525
Draper 983
West Valley 767
Midvale 566
West Jordan 546
Millcreek 422
Sandy 307
Cottonwood Heights 251
South Jordan 188
South Salt Lake 87
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Source: Commerce Real Estate Solutions, Cushman & Wakefield Alliance, Salt Lake City.
Overall Rental Market Conditions in Salt Lake County Each summer I conduct a rental vacancy and rate survey for Commerce Real Estate Solutions Cushman Wakefield. Below are the result of the August 2019 survey.
Salt Lake County’s apartment market continues to experience very low vacancy rates despite the addition of over 15,000 to the rental inventory in the past five years. Currently the rental inventory in Salt Lake County is approximately 126,000 units (occupied units).
The county’s recent low vacancy rate essentially reflects turnover in the rental market. The duration and low level of vacancy rates makes this post Great Recession eight-year period (2011-2019) the “tightest” sustained rental market conditions in the county’s history. The vacancy rate in August City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 54
2019 in Salt Lake County was 3.4%. These conditions continue to put upward pressure on rental rates. All types of apartment units experienced increases in average rental rates. The combined average monthly rental rate for all types of units was $1,145, a 6.8 percent from the average rate of $1,072 in 2018 Table 9. Rental rates, on a square foot basis, increased from $1.24 in the summer of 2018 to $1.32 in 2019. Studio units had the largest increase in rents over the past twelve months as the average rent increased from $797 to $897, an 11.7 percent increase. Three bedroom two bath units had the smallest year over price increases with a 6.3 percent increase. A summary of rental market characteristics, including average rent, size of unit, rent per square foot and vacancy rate is given in Table 10-11.
Table 9 Apartment Vacancy Rates in Salt Lake County
Two Two Three One Bedroom Bedroom Bedroom Studio Bedroom One Bath Two Bath Two Bath Overall 2002 5.7% 5.6% 4.3% 6.0% 4.5% 5.4% 2003 7.4% 8.5% 8.0% 5.7% 3.9% 7.6% 2004 6.3% 6.7% 7.6% 7.7% 7.4% 7.2% 2005 6.6% 5.3% 7.7% 5.5% 7.0% 6.1% 2006 6.0% 3.2% 4.6% 3.2% 3.4% 4.0% 2007 4.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 3.2% 2008 5.7% 4.3% 4.1% 5.2% 4.8% 4.6% 2009 4.9% 6.6% 7.7% 8.0% 6.6% 7.2% 2010 6.6% 5.2% 6.5% 5.5% 6.3% 5.7% 2011 7.2% 5.1% 6.2% 4.4% 3.6% 5.2% 2012 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 2013 2.0% 3.2% 3.7% 5.1% 4.1% 3.9% 2014 <2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 3.9% 2.8% 3.0% 2015 <2.0% 2.5% 3.8% 2.5% 2.0% 2.7% 2016 <2.0% 3.4% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 2017 4.9% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.1% 2.6% 2018 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.4% 2.7% 2019 1.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.8% 3.9% 3.4%
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Table 10 Change in Average Rental Rates by Type of Unit – Salt Lake County
% Change Type of Unit 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2018 to 2019 Studio $515 $538 $586 $603 $638 $705 $745 $794 $887 11.7% One Bedroom $659 $709 $745 $757 $804 $833 $906 $964 $1,030 6.9% Two Bedroom One Bath $725 $759 $792 $809 $833 $879 $932 $983 $1,050 6.8% Two Bedroom Two Bath $862 $943 $969 $983 $1,050 $1,085 $1,158 $1,227 $1,310 6.8% Three Bedroom Two Bath $1,025 $1,051 $1,075 $1,085 $1,132 $1,244 $1,278 $1,311 $1,393 6.3% Overall $754 $814 $850 $865 $907 $949 $1,011 $1,072 $1,145 6.8%
Table 11 Overall Rental and Vacancy Rates in 2019 by Type of Apartment Unit in Salt Lake County
Type of Unit Rents Square Feet Rent/S.F. Vacancy Studio $887 447 $1.98 1.1% One Bedroom $1,030 683 $1.51 3.1% Two Bedroom One Bath $1,050 912 $1.15 3.1% Two Bedroom Two Bath $1,310 1,010 $1.30 3.8% Three Bedroom $1,393 1,229 $1.13 3.9% Overall $1,145 866 $1.32 3.4%
Concessions Offered by Apartment Communities - Each apartment community was surveyed regarding move-in specials or concessions offered to new renters. Concessions are comprised generally of reductions in one or more of the following: rental deposit, rental rate and application fee. In 2019 only twelve of eighty-five apartment communities offered concessions. Of the twelve apartment communities offering concessions ten offered discounted rent, usually a portion of first month’s rent, typically between $200 and $300.
Methodology for Rental Survey - The data in this report provide rental and vacancy information on small to large apartment communities in Salt Lake County. This segment of the Salt Lake County rental market is comprised of approximately 420 apartment communities ranging from 25 units to 588 units. A random sample of 85 apartment communities was drawn from the universe of approximately 420 communities. Each of these 85 apartment communities was surveyed for vacancy and rental information. The survey was conducted in the first week of August 2019. The 85 apartment communities surveyed include 452 studio units, 7,263 one bedroom units, 3,316 two bedroom one bath units, 5,142 two bedroom two bath units and 1,709 three bedroom, two bath units. The oldest community was built in 1909 the newest built in 2018, the smallest had 25 units and the largest 588 units. The apartment communities surveyed are spread throughout the residential areas of Salt Lake County and downtown Salt Lake City. The northern most property surveyed is at 1200 North, the southernmost property is at 14900 South. Each year a few recently completed communities are added to the sample to make certain the sample is representative of the expanding rental inventory.
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VI. ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS
Capture Rates – The capture rates for the County High Rise and City Plaza are estimated to be less than 1.0 percent and 3.1 percent respectively, Table 1. This capture rate is very low and indicates that the rehabilitation of City Plaza and the County High Rise will have little difficulty in successful operation and high rates of occupancy. Future high occupancy is assured by the recent occupancy history. The occupancy rate, according housing authorities has averaged above 98 percent. The only vacancies are due to turnover. Secondly, the rental rates for both projects will be far below market rents. Tenants will be obligated for 30 percent of their income for rent. Utilities are paid by owner. No tenant in the 298 one bedroom units will pay more than $930 theoretically for rent, but as a practical matter no renter will pay as much as $930 due to project based vouchers. The tenants at the 299 units will be, in all likelihood extremely low income renters; renters with incomes below $20,000.
Table 1 County High Rise and City Plaza: Income Qualified Renters (less than $20,000 income) and Capture Rates – 2018
Category Renters @<$20,000 income County High Rise, renters all ages 1 person household 11,850 2 person household 3,860 Total Income Qualified 15,710 County High Rise (only tax credit units) 149 Capture Rate <1% City Plaza, Senior renters 62 years+ 1 person household 4,490 2 person household 330 Total Income Qualified 4,820 City Plaza (only tax credit units) 150 Capture Rate 3.1% Source: HUD Special Tabulations, 2017.
Methodology for Estimating Pool of Income Qualified Renters and Capture Rates - The determination of the number of income qualified renters in the Salt Lake County rental market relies on data from the HUD Special Tabulation developed by the Economic and Market Analysis Division. HUD’s Special Tabulation provides information on households by income, tenure, age, size of households, and housing cost burdens. The Special Tabulation uses 2017 ACS five year survey data.
Only the renter data “with conditions” was used from the Special Tabulations because these renters have housing problems; more than 30 percent cost burden, and/or substandard kitchen or bathroom and/or overcrowding, more than 1.5 persons per room. Renters “with conditions” are currently living in market rate units not rent assisted units (tax credit units, public housing or project based rental units). Again, due to the project based rental subsidy, the renters at the County High Rise and City Plaza will be extremely low income renters with income less than $20,000. In 2017 there were 57,700 renters in Salt Lake County “with conditions”; 15,710 are renters with incomes below $20,000 and are potential renters for the County High Rise (renters of all ages). In the case of City Plaza, which is a Senior project with rental subsidy, there are 4,820 extremely low income Senior renters that are potential renters for City Plaza.
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Table 2 Renters in Salt Lake County by Income and Household Size, All Ages (with conditions) 5+ Total 1-person 2-persons 3-persons 4-persons persons Total 57,755 20,925 12150 7,550 6,950 10,180 Less than $9,999 9,710 5,405 1,750 1,170 790 585 $10,000 - $14,999 6,240 3,505 930 650 635 520 $15,000 - $19,999 5,695 2,940 1,180 750 700 395 $20,000 - $24,999 7,410 2,960 1,865 1,100 755 725 $25,000 - $29,999 6,710 2,205 1,725 1,040 735 1,005 $30,000 - $34,999 5,610 1,475 1,615 740 690 1,085 $35,000 - $39,999 4,010 955 930 480 760 885 $40,000 - $44,999 3,095 625 625 555 315 980 $45,000 - $49,999 2,240 360 355 320 370 835 $50,000 - $59,999 2,465 220 600 410 430 800 $60,000 - $74,999 2,205 145 250 180 550 1,080 $75,000 - $99,999 1,155 65 215 60 145 670 $100,000 – or more 945 60 110 90 60 610 Source: HUD Special Tabulations 2016.
Table 2A Renters in Salt Lake County by Income and Household Size, Senior Renters 62 years and more (with conditions)
5+ Total 1-person 2-persons 3-persons 4-persons persons Total 8,650 6,640 1,455 240 125 190 Less than $9,999 1,985 1,825 155 0 0 0 $10,000 - $14,999 1,640 1,545 40 45 10 0 $15,000 - $19,999 1,290 1,120 135 35 0 0 $20,000 - $24,999 1,050 730 260 4 0 55 $25,000 - $29,999 700 430 275 0 0 0 $30,000 - $34,999 485 270 155 15 20 30 $35,000 - $39,999 450 200 125 55 40 30 $40,000 - $44,999 320 170 100 15 25 15 $45,000 - $49,999 235 140 55 0 20 15 $50,000 - $59,999 120 50 25 35 10 4 $60,000 - $74,999 165 75 60 0 4 25 $75,000 - $99,999 130 60 45 10 0 20 $100,000 - $124,999 30 0 0 30 0 0 Source: HUD Special Tabulations 2016.
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Table 3 Estimates of Income Qualified Renters by Household Size, Renters of All Ages, County High Rise (with conditions)
5+ Total 1-person 2-persons 3-persons 4-persons persons Total 57,755 20,925 12,150 Less than $9,999 9,710 5,405 1,750 $10,000 - $14,999 6,240 3,505 930 $15,000 - $19,999 5,695 2,940 1,180 $20,000 - $24,999 7,410 $25,000 - $29,999 6,710 $30,000 - $34,999 5,610 $35,000 - $39,999 4,010 $40,000 - $44,999 3,095 $45,000 - $49,999 2,240 $50,000 - $59,999 2,465 $60,000 - $74,999 2,205 $75,000 - $99,999 1,155 $100,000 – or more 945 Income Qualified Renters 15,710 11,850 3,860 Source: HUD Special Tabulations 2016.
Table 3A Estimates of Income Qualified Renters by Household Size, Senior Renters, City Plaza , (with conditions)
5+ Total 1-person 2-persons 3-persons 4-persons persons Total 8,650 6,640 1,455 Less than $9,999 1,985 1,825 155 $10,000 - $14,999 1,640 1,545 40 $15,000 - $19,999 1,290 1,120 135 $20,000 - $24,999 1,050 $25,000 - $29,999 700 $30,000 - $34,999 485 $35,000 - $39,999 450 $40,000 - $44,999 320 $45,000 - $49,999 235 $50,000 - $59,999 120 $60,000 - $74,999 165 $75,000 - $99,999 130 $100,000 – or more 30 Income Qualified Renters 4,820 4,490 330 Source: HUD Special Tabulations 2016.
Absorption of Recently Completed Apartment Communities – The recent absorption rate of twenty-four apartment communities in Salt Lake County. The twenty-four projects have 5,355 units and completed construction in 2016 to 2019 is given in Table 4. The average absorption rate was 17 units monthly. Pre-leasing begins at various points in the construction process depending on the project and management. A few projects have been nearly fully leased when construction is completed. A few of new projects achieved absorption of 25 to 30 units a month. The absorption for four tax credit projects are shown in the shaded rows. The tax credit units have the most rapid absorption rates. Given the very low rental rates and the project base vouchers at City Plaza and the
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County High Rise the demand for units will exceed available units. Waiting lists and high occupancy rates will continue. Table 4 Absorption Rates of Recently Completed Market Rate Apartment Projects, 2016-2019 (LIHTC in shaded area)
Absorption Rate per Projects Units Month Jordan Station 302 15 Dry Creek at East Village 282 16 Element 31 Brickyard 208 11 The East Village 271 18 Liberty Crest 177 20 9th East Lofts (Tax Credit) 68 22 Riverfront 288 19 The Station at Midvale (Tax Credit) 102 30 Villa's at Founder's Point (Tax Credit) 97 30 600 Lofts (Tax Credit) 272 Leased at completion Parc @ City Center 330 15 Herriman Town Center 304 17 Draper Village 181 15 Parc West 249 16 Moda-Bonneville 168 22 Liberty Boulevard* 266 Over 30 Alta Gateway Station 264 15 21 by Urbana 126 30 Hardware Village West 265 6 Milagro 265 12 Salt Flats 81 12 Gardner Station 272 25 The Ridge 261 14 ICON 9700 264 15 Total 5,083 Wt. Average 17 Source: James Wood.
Comparison of Rental Rates to Market Rents - Rental rates at City Plaza and the County High Rise are well below market rents. Rents range from 11 percent below market rents for the 59% AMI one bedroom units to 46% below for the one bedroom 37 percent AMI units Table 5. Keep in mind that the rental rates in column two of Table 7 are the most any renter would have to pay at City Plaza and the County High Rise. For most tenants rental rates will be even lower.
Table 5 Comparison of City Plaza and the County High Rise to Market Rents
City Plaza Subject Project and County Rents High Rise Market Compared to City Plaza and County High Rise Rents Rents Mkt Rents 1 Bedroom 1 bath $915 $1,030 Lower by 11% 1 Bedroom 1 bath 9$15 $1,030 Lower by 11% 1 Bedroom 1 bath $558 $1,030 Lower by 46% 1 Bedroom 1 bath $589 $1,030 Lower by 45% 2 Bedroom 1 bath $689 $1,050 Lower by 34% Source: James Wood and Cushman & Wakefield.
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Risks and Adverse Conditions –The location, unit types, and below market rents combine to produce an environment of very low risk. There are no adverse conditions that detract from the suitability of the rehabbed City Plaza and County High Rise as a tax credit apartment community with project based vouchers.
Voucher Support – Both projects will have voucher support through the RAD program, as funding is move to project based vouchers.
Unmet Demand and Need for Extremely Low Income Senior Rentals - According to the HUD CHAS there are 22,820 renter households in Salt Lake County with incomes below 50% AMI that pay more the 50% of their income for housing. These 22,820 renter household receive no housing assistance. They represent the most critical unmet need for affordable housing.
Impact of Rental Market – The rehabilitation of 299 units at City Plaza and the County High Rise will have no impact on the performance of existing market rate projects or existing tax credit units. The rental inventory of 130,000 units of which nearly 15,000 are tax credit units will not be impacted by the City Plaza and the County High Rise.
Rental Market Outlook - Despite the recent surge in apartment development the outlook for tax credit units in the local market remains favorable for the following reasons: (1) market indicators show no sign of oversupply by mid-year 2019; (2) employment growth has been strong with rates of increase near three percent. Job growth is expected to continue over the next 36 months 2.5 percent annually. The strong job market will continue to release pent-up demand trapped by households doubling-up (3) net in-migration is increasing which will boost housing demand, (4) housing prices have rebounded with an increase of more than 60 percent since the trough in prices in 2011; higher prices will continue to price many households out of the ownership market to the benefit of the rental market, (5) the shadow markets role is shrinking, (6) the seeming growing preference of the younger generation (25 to 35 year olds) for apartment living, (7) the rapid absorption experience of new apartments particularly tax credit units and (8) the low vacancy rates at present give the market significant “headroom” which protects against serious destabilization of the market.1
Summary of Market Conditions for Existing Homes in Salt Lake County - The conditions in the homeownership market have implications for the rental market in a number of ways. One important trend in recent years is the increase in housing prices that has shifted some single family homes from the rental to owner occupied inventory. During the recession many single family homes were rented due to economic hardships of owners and declining demand for homeownership. This conditions created a shadow rental market that helped supply much needed units to meet rental demand. However, once home prices turned in 2012 and fully recovered by 2016 many of the rented homes were sold and shifted to owner occupied units thus reducing the inventory of rental units. The loss of the shadow market as a source of housing supply is one factor in the strong demand for traditional apartment units in today’s market
Housing prices of course are also important to rental market conditions. High housing prices limit homeownership possibilities and render renting as the only housing alternative, thus increasing demand for rental housing.
1 “Headroom” is the gap between the very low 2.7 percent vacancy rate and a healthy five percent vacancy rate. An excess of 3,000 units moves the vacancy rate from 2.7 percent to five percent. City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 61
The last ten years have been a very volatile period for housing prices. Never has the local real estate industry faced such volatility Figure 1. From 2004 to 2007 the median sales price of a home increased by a stunning 57 percent. In 2006 alone prices increased by a remarkable 27 percent. The run-up in prices, however, was short lived. By 2008 prices weakened and began a steady decline over the next three years of about six percent annually until 2011 when prices declined nine percent; the second worst single-year decline in housing prices in sixty years. Only the twelve percent decline in 1958 was worse. The median sales price finally hit bottom in 2011 at $204,600 inflation adjusted dollars.
Over the long run housing prices in Utah and Salt Lake County have been stronger than prices at the national level. After adjusting for inflation housing prices (average sales price) in Salt Lake County have increased at over two percent a year since 1980. That amounts to a 120 percent gain in real prices of a home over 38 years. In 1980 the average sales price, in 2018 dollars, of a home in the county was $183,000 and by 2018 the average price was $402,275. Utah’s long-term price performance beats most states. Typically, over the long run housing prices at the national level track closely with inflation rates but in Utah price appreciation exceeds the inflation rate by a two percent annually. In 2018 the median sales price of a home was up 9.2 percent to $355,000 Table 6. The median sales price of a home in Salt Lake County through the first half of 2019 is up 5.6 percent to $375,000, a little slower pace of price increases.
Figure 1 Annual Percent Change of Median Sales Price (inflation adjusted) of Single Family Home in Salt Lake County (year over)
20.0% 18.1%
13.7% 15.0% 10.2% 9.6% 9.2% 10.0% 8.5% 6.6% 6.7% 4.5% 4.1% 5.0% 0.6% 0.5%1.0% 0.1% 0.0% -0.6% -1.3% -5.0% -4.9% -4.9% -10.0% -7.5%
-12.3% -15.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Wasatch Front Regional Multiple Listing Service.
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Table 6 Median Sales Price of Existing Homes Sold in Salt Lake County (inflation adjusted – 2018 dollars) Median Sales Year Price 1998 $202,894 1999 $204,102 2000 $202,875 2001 $203,837 2002 $205,843 2003 $203,155 2004 $203,433 2005 $223,002 2006 $263,399 2007 $280,873 2008 $267,191 2009 $253,989 2010 $235,037 2011 $206,079 2012 $215,440 2013 $245,000 2014 $255,000 2015 $272,000 2016 $295,000 2017 $325,000 2018 $355,000 Source: UtahRealEstate.com
Housing Market Outlook for 2019 - Market fundamentals point toward a solid real estate year in 2019 supported by the following.
Strong Job Growth - Job growth in Salt Lake County will to continue at a pace of nearly three percent, that’s an additional 20,000 jobs each year. Nationally and presumably locally there’s strong job growth for millennial age cohort, which is a likely prime market segment for
Low Unemployment Rate -The unemployment rate in Utah will remain below four percent. The December 2018 unemployment rate in Salt Lake County was 3.1 percent. For 2018 the unemployment rate was 3.0 percent. A low unemployment rate indicates job opportunities, which improves consumer confidence. Confidence is an important ingredient of housing demand. A low unemployment rate also indicates job opportunities which should attract people to Utah and Salt Lake County thus increasing the number of households and the demand for housing.
Foreclosures and Short Sales No Longer an Issue - The sale of foreclosed properties accelerated rapidly over the three year period from 2009 to 2011. However, in 2012 the trend reversed as the number of REO sales dropped. The decline in REO sales accelerated in 2013 and 2014 with total REO sales dropping to 498 homes in 2014; 4.3 percent of all single family homes sales. In the peak year of 2011 REO sales accounted for 18 percent of homes sold in the county. In 2018 REO sales dropped to 50 homes, less than one percent of overall sales Table 7. This pattern is reflected in statewide data on the inventory of homes in foreclosure proceeding published by the National Mortgage Bankers Association. The number of mortgages in foreclosure peaked in the first quarter of 2010 at nearly 15,000 mortgages, 3.4 percent of all mortgages. By the 2018 the number of
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 63 mortgages statewide in foreclosure dropped to less than 4,000 and below one percent of mortgages. The historic average is one percent of mortgages in foreclosure.
Table 7 Sales of REO/Foreclosures/Bank Owned Homes
Salt Lake County 2008 158 2009 477 2010 1,442 2011 2,042 2012 1,394 2013 539 2014 498 2015 321 2016 156 2017 98 2018 50 Total 7,042 Source: Wasatch Front Regional MLS.
Housing Affordability - The mortgage payment on the median priced home ($355,000) in Salt Lake County would be about $2,000, a 50 percent increase from 2013 Figure 2. This increase illustrates the declining housing affordability in the county. Due to the escalating price of homeownership more households have no other housing alternative than renting. The declining affordability of homeownership is a primary reason for the “tight” rental market.
Figure 2 Mortgage Payment for Median Price Home in Salt Lake County and Utah
$1,299 Salt Lake $2,014
$1,167 State $1,821
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
2013 2018
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NO CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 65
MARKET STUDY COMPANY INFORMATION
James Wood P.O. Box 58107 Salt Lake City, Utah 84158 801 581-7165
Services: Real estate, construction and housing consultant. I work as consultant part-time; hours depend on workload. I’m employed full-time by the University of Utah, Kem Gardner Policy Institute where I’m the Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow.
Experience: See attached VITA. I have been studying and doing research on Utah’s real estate industry for over 40 years. I routinely complete four to five tax credit market studies a year. I also performed HUD 221 (d) 4 market studies, and housing needs assessments for counties and municipalities in Utah.
Location of work: I have done housing studies in 24 of Utah 29 counties; exceptions are Daggett, Millard, Piute, Juab, and Wayne. I will work in any county.
Fee. Typical fee for a tax credit project is $3,500, regardless of county or size. Exception is Crown homes where my fee is $1,500 to $2,500 depending on travel requirements.
Timing. I prefer to have 45 days but often turn around projects in ten days or less.
Assistance: I’m a sole proprietor and do all the primary and secondary research, analysis, writing, and editing.
References: Kip Paul, Cushman and Wakefield, Salt Lake City, Utah 801 322-2000
NeighborWorks Salt Lake Maria Garciez Salt Lake City, Utah 801 539-1590
Jaron Davis Executive Director, Salt Lake Home Builders 9069 South 1300 West West Jordan, Utah 801 748-4134
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 66
APPENDIX VITA – James Wood
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 67
VITA
JAMES A. WOOD
P.O. Box 58107 Salt Lake City, Utah 84158
Phone: (801) 581-7165 (office), fax (801) 581-3354 (801) 583-0392 (residence)
EDUCATION University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah; B.S. Finance, June 1967. University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah; Graduate Student in Economics, 1970-1974.
MILITARY EXPERIENCE United States Army, Military Intelligence 1968-1970; Vietnam 1969-1970.
EMPLOYMENT EXPERIENCE July 2015 to present Ivory Boyer Senior Fellow, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah. 2002 to 2015 June, Director, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. 1975 to 2002, Senior Research Analyst, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah. 1975 to present, private consultant, Salt Lake City, Utah. 1974-1975 - Legislative Aide on economic issues for Senator Frank E. Moss, Washington, D.C. 1972-1974 - Research Analyst, Bureau of Economic and Business Research. 1970 - Accountant, Jacobsen Construction Company, Salt Lake City, Utah. 1966-1967 - Accountant, Utah Idaho Sugar Company, Salt Lake City, Utah.
ADVISORY COMMITTEES AND BOARDS Ex-Officio Member of the Board of Trustees Downtown Alliance Salt Lake City. Committee Member of Revenue Assumption Working Group, State of Utah. Board Member of NeighborWorks Salt Lake City President of Wasatch Economic Forum 2008-2009 Advisory Board Member of the Salt Lake County Housing Trust Fund 2009-2014 Board Member Salt Lake Home Builders Association Member Salt Lake County Consortium Housing (HOME) Committee
UNIVERSITY RESEARCH STUDIES AND PUBLICATIONS “A History of Utah’s High Tech Industry: People, Products, and Companies (forthcoming), Kem Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah, 2019.
“Housing Cost Burden for Utah Senior Renters, Technical Paper, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah, August 2019.
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“The Year in Charts: Utah’s Housing Market in 2018,” Research Brief, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah, March 2019.
“What Rapidly Rising Prices Mean for Housing Affordability,” Gardner Business Review, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah, May 2018.
“Housing Prices and the Threat to Affordability,” Research Brief, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah, March 2018. “The Impact of Globalization on Utah: The Flow of Goods and People”, Research Report, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah, March 2017.
“Salt Lake County Real Estate Conditions and Forecast 2016-2017, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah, February 2017.
“Salt Lake City’s Downtown Rental Market: Past, Present, and Future, Research Brief, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah, October 2016.
“Salt Lake County Real Estate Market Conditions and Forecast 2015-2016”, Kem C. Gardner Public Policy Institute, Policy Brief, February 2016.
“Access to Opportunity in Wasatch Front Counties”, Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 75 Number 1, Winter 2015. Coauthored with DJ Benway. “The Great Recession: Utah’s Homebuilding and Real Estate Sectors”, Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 74 Number 2, Summer 2014.
Regional Analysis of Impediment to Fair Housing Choice (Salt Lake, Utah, Davis and Weber Counties). Funded by Housing and Urban Development Sustainable Communities Grant 2011-2014. Grant awarded to Salt Lake County and a research team composed of six participants including the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. The Regional Analysis of Impediments and Fair Housing Equity Assessment for entitlement jurisdictions was completed by a four-person team at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research under the direction of James Wood. Published May 2014.
"Salt Lake County Real Estate Market: Current Conditions and Forecast for 2012” Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 71 Number 4, Winter 2011.
“Nonresidential Construction: Past, Present and Future”, Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 70 Number 2, Summer 2010.
“Utah’s Home Building Industry: Recovery and Challenges”, Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 70 Number 1, Spring 2010.
Residential and Nonresidential Construction Trends and Forecast for Utah and Wasatch Front Counties. David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Summit Materials, May 2010.
Utah’s Sports Sector: Economic Activity and Impact. David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Utah’s Sports Commission. February 2010.
City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 69
“Utah’s Housing Market: Present Perspective, Future Prospects”, Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 69 Number 1, Spring 2009.
A Review of the Proposed Home Run Grant Program, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Utah’s Housing Action Coalition. February 2009.
Economic Impact of Bonding for Capital Facilities in Utah, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Commissioner’s Office of Higher Education. January 2009.
The Economic Impact of Thanksgiving Point on the Utah County Economy. David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Thanksgiving Point Foundation. November 2008.
Foreclosures in Utah Likely to Hit Record. David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Foreclosure Prevention Taskforce, October 2008.
Economic Baseline Study for Vernal and Ashley Valley, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Tightline Community Resources, September 2008.
Pathways Project: A Study of the Cost of Services for Chronically Homeless Individuals in Salt Lake County. Funded by Utah State Department of Community and Culture, August 2008
The Changing Structure and Current Baseline of the Davis County Economy, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Davis County Community and Economic Development, June 2007.
Competitive Role of Commercial Development at the West Bench, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Kennecott Land. January 2007.
An Analysis of the Land Use and Value of Weber State University’s Mountainside Parcel, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Weber State University. Co-authored with Frank Lilly. December 2006.
The Changing Structure and Current Baseline of Draper City, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Draper City Office of Economic Development. Co-authored with Frank Lilly. September 2006.
West Bench Economic Impact: Economic, Demographic and Fiscal Analysis, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Kennecott Land. Co-authored with Pam Perlich. October 2005.
Economic Impact of Affordable Housing: Construction, Rehabilitation and Assistance Programs, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Utah Housing Coalition, September 2004.
“The Utah Economy: Outlook and Review”, Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 64, Numbers 1 and 2, January/December 2004. City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 70
Affordable Housing in Utah Cities: New Construction, Building Fees and Zoning. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for Fannie Mae Utah Partnership Office, Utah Housing Corporation, Envision Utah and The Olene Walker Housing Trust Fund, June 2003.
Changing Economic Structure of Salt Lake City’s Central Business District, 1990 to 2002. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Prepared for The Downtown Alliance of Salt Lake City, 2002.
“The Impact of Changing Economics and Demographics on the Characteristics of New Homes and Housing Densities (Part II),” Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 61 Numbers 9 & 10, September/October 2001.
“Utah Residential Construction: A Look at Past and Present Construction Cycles (Part I),” Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 61, Numbers 1 &2, January/February 2001.
A Demand and Use Analysis of Research Park Land and Buildings 2000 to 2015. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Report prepared for University of Utah Administration. Co-authored with Jan Crispin-Little, May 2000.
“Single-Family Construction Bucks Trend,” Utah Construction Report, Volume 42 No 2. April, May, June 1999, published by Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
“A Closer Look: Nonresidential Construction in Utah 1985 to 1998,” Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 59, Numbers 5 and 6, May/June 1999.
“Residential Construction Remains Surprisingly Strong,” Utah Construction Report, Volume 42 No 1. January, February, March 1999, published by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
“Construction Value Reaches New High,” Utah Construction Report, Volume 41 No 4. October, November, December 1998, published by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
“Retail Trends and the Need for Downtown Revitalization,” Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 58, Numbers 11 and 12, November/December 1998.
Gateway Retail Development and Downtown Revitalization. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Report prepared for Boyer Company and Salt Lake City Council, October 1998.
"Overview of Construction and Housing in the Utah Economy", Economic Report to the Governor, 1998.
Utah Technology Finance Corporation: Economic Development Policy and Economic Impacts. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Report prepared for Utah Technology Finance Corporation, June 1998. City Plaza and County High Rise :Tax Credit Feasibility Study 71
“ “Housing Prices and Affordability in Utah", Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 57 Numbers 5 and 6, May/June 1997.
Demographic and Economic Trends for Utah, U.S., the Rocky Mountain Region and Hermes' Market Areas. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Report prepared for Hermes Associates. Coauthored with Jan Crispin-Little. March 1997.
"Housing Price Trends in Utah 1980-1996", Economic Report to the Governor, 1997. Impediments to Low and Moderate Income Housing in Unincorporated Salt Lake County and Selected Municipalities. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Report for Salt Lake County Office of Economic Development and Job Training. December 1996.
The University of Utah Research Park: A Review of Policy and History. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Report prepared University of Utah Research Park Administration, December 1996.
Demographic and Economic Trends and Forecasts for Utah and Idaho. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Report prepared for Oldcastle Materials. Coauthored with Jan Crispin-Little. February 1996.
"Construction Cycles in Utah" Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 55 Numbers 11 and 12, November/December 1995.
"Losing Ground: Housing Affordability and Low-Income Renters in Utah", Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 55 Numbers 9 and 10, September/October 1995.
"The Performance of Wage Rates in Utah 1982-1993" Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 55 Numbers 3 and 4, March/April 1995. Coauthored with Kenneth E. Jensen, Utah Department of Employment Security.
Demographic, Economic and Export Statistics for the Salt Lake City Airport Authority. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Reported prepared for Salt Lake Airport Authority. May 1995.
A Study of the Custom Fit Training Program. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Report prepared for Utah State Office of Education. Coauthored with Jan Crispin-Little. March 1995.
"Utah Wage Levels" Economic Report to the Governor, 1995. Coauthored with Kenneth Jensen.
"Management of State Trust Lands in Washington County" Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 54, Numbers 7 and 8, July/August 1994. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1994.
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"The Changing Demographic and Economic Structure of Washington County, 1970-1993." Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 54, Numbers 1 and 2, January/February 1994. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1994.
An Economic Analysis for the Management of State Lands in Washington County. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for the Division of State Lands and Forestry, Department of Natural Resources, State of Utah, March 1994.
"Economic Impact of Utah Housing Finance Agency's New Residential Mortgage Programs" Utah of Economic and Business Review, Volume 53, Numbers 11 and 12, November/December 1993. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah December, 1993.
Economic Analysis for the Salt Lake Courts Complex. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for the Division of Facilities and Construction Management, Department of Administrative Services, State of Utah, October 1992.
"Economic Well-Being of Utah Households: 1979-1989" Utah Business and Economic Review, Volume 52, Numbers 4 and 5, April/May, 1992. Coauthored with R. Thayne Robson. Bureau of Economic and Business Review, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, May 1992.
Economic Impact of the Utah Technology Finance Corporation on the Utah Economy. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Coauthored with Jan Elise Crispin. Report prepared for the Utah Technology Finance Corporation, State of Utah, 1992.
"Manufacturing in the West Since World War II." Utah Business and Economic Review, Volume 51, Number 3, March 1991. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1991.
"Utah's Adjustment to Declining Defense Budgets." Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 50, Numbers 11 and 12, November/December 1990. Coauthored with Jan Elise Crispin. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1990.
"Utah's Electronics Industry." Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 50, Number 9, September 1990. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1990.
Electronics Target Industry Study. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for the Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1990.
"Report on Women-Owned Business in Utah." Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 50, Number 3, March 1990. Coauthored with Rose Ann Watson. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1990.
Report on Women-Owned Business in Utah. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for the Women's Business Development Office, Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1990.
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"Utah Housing Finance Agency: The Economic Impact of Mortgage Programs for New Residential Units." Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 49, Number 9, September 1989. Bureau of Economic and Business Review, University of Utah, 1989.
Economic Impact of Utah Housing Finance Agency Programs on the Utah Economy. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for the Utah Housing Finance Agency, 1989; annual report 1989 to present.
"Utah's Aerospace Industry." Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 49, Number 8, August 1989. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1989.
Utah's Aerospace Industry. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Coauthored with John Brereton. Report prepared for the Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1989.
The Economic Impact of a Catastrophic Earthquake on Utah's Financial Institutions. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for the Division of Comprehensive Emergency Management, Financial Institution Emergency Preparedness Committee, June 1989.
Public Education and Economic Development. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for the Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1989.
The Characteristics and Potential of the Health Care and Weight Control/Fitness Industries of St. George. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Prepared for St. George City, October 1988.
Economic Profile Summit County/Park City. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report Prepared for Summit County/Park City Chamber of Commerce and Visitors Bureau, September 1988.
The Economic Impact on Utah of the U.S. Petroleum Corporation's Wax Processing Plant. Report for the Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, October 1987.
Projected Employment Growth Rates for State Government. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for Wallace Associates, Salt Lake City, Utah, October 1987.
A Proposal for US West Advanced Technologies. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Coauthored with Jan Elise Crispin and Shipley Associates. Prepared for Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1987.
"The Utah Housing Market: Demographic and Economic Trends." Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 47, Number 3, March 1987. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, March 1987.
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Utah as a Location for Frozen Prepared Food Manufacturing. Bureau of Economic and Business Research University of Utah. Prepared for the Division of Business and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1986.
Capital Flow in Utah. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1986. Report prepared for Governor's Economic Development Conference, February 1986.
The Strategy and Economic Impact for the Development of a Western Town in Moab Utah. Report prepared for the Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, June 1985.
"The Changing Conditions of The Salt Lake County Apartment Market." Utah Economic and Business Research, Volume 45, Number 3, March 1985. Bureau of Economic and Business Research University of Utah, 1985.
"Utah's Expanding Service Sector," Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 44, Number 9, September 1984. Coauthored with Constance C. Steffan. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, September 1984.
Electronics Target Industry. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for the Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, September 1984.
"Salt Lake County Apartment Construction Activity," Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 44, Number 6, June 1984. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1984.
Service Sector Target Industry Study. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, May 1984. Coauthored with Constance C. Steffan. Report prepared for Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, May 1984.
Survey of Utah's Exporting Firms. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1983. Report prepared for the Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1983.
Market Feasibility Study for Apartment Development. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for Triad Utah, December 1983.
Market Feasibility Study for Luxury Condominiums. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for Triad Utah, October 1983.
"Natural Resource Development and Small Business Opportunities in the Uintah Basin." Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 43, Numbers 4 and 5, April/May 1983. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1983.
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Natural Resource Development and Small Business Opportunities in the Uintah Basin. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for the Small Business Development Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, June 1983.
"The Electronics/Information Processing Industry in Utah," Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 42, Number 10, October 1982. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1982.
The Electronic Components and Information Processing Industry and State Industrial Development Programs. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1982. Report prepared for the Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1982.
"Utah Homebuilding: Decline, Structural Changes, and Demand Factors." Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 42, Number 9, September 1982. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1982.
"Utah's Thrust Belt: Exploration, Development and Economic Impacts." Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 41, Number 1, January 1981. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1981.
Demand for Cold and Frozen Storage in Utah and the Mountain States. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for the Division of Business and Economic Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1980.
Proposed Industrial Park Development in Grand County. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Report prepared for Division of Economic and Industrial Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, October 1979.
Utah Labor Market Conditions for Manufacturing Assemblers and Electronic Technicians 1979. Coauthored with Randy Rogers and Ronda Brinkerhoff. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1979.
Utah: A Profitable Location for Headquarters and Administrative Office Facilities, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, September 1979. Report prepared for Division of Economic and Industrial Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1979.
Utah Demand for Bricks 1978, 1985, 1990. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Coauthored with Mark Linford. Report prepared for Interstate Brick, Entrada Industries, July 1979.
Market Feasibility Study for Kaolin Clay Production in Utah. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, May 1979. Coauthored with Mark Linford. Report prepared for Office of Small Business Development, Department of Community and Economic Development, State of Utah, 1979.
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Utah: A Profitable Location for the Machinery Industry. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1978. Report prepared for Division of Industrial Development, Department of Development Services, State of Utah, 1978.
"Demand for Housing in Salt Lake County." Real Estate Activities in Salt Lake Davis, Weber, Utah and Cache Counties, Fall 1978. Utah Real Estate Research Committee and Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1978.
An Analysis of the Clay Roofing Tile Market in Utah. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1978. Report prepared for Interstate Brick, Entrada Industries, March 1978.
Sandy: An Economic Profile and Land Use Requirements. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Coauthored with John Brereton and Randall Rogers. Report prepared for Sandy City Planning Office, January, 1977.
Demand for Selected Steel Products. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, October 1976. Coauthored with Dwight Israelsen, Robert Wood and Randall Rogers. Report prepared for Steelco Corporation, Salt Lake City, Utah, 1976.
A Study of the Economic Potential of the Great Salt Lake State Park. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, September 1976. Coauthored with John Brereton and Janet Kiholm. Report prepared for Division of Parks and Recreation, Department of Natural Resources, State of Utah, 1976.
Married Student Housing Survey. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, August 1976. Report prepared for Housing Management, University of Utah, 1976.
"The Changing Composition of the State Budget," Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 36, Numbers 4 and 5, April/May 1976. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1976.
"Utah Building Activity 1970-1975." Real Estate Activities in Salt Lake, Davis, Weber, Utah and Cache Counties, Fall 1975. Coauthored with Kathy Watanabe. Utah Real Estate Research Committee and the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1975.
"Condominium Developments in Utah," Utah Economic and Business Review, Volume 34, Number 9, September 1974. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, 1974.
Electronics Industry: Location Potential in Utah. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah, June 1973. Coauthored with Jean H. Hanssen. Report prepared for the Division of Industrial Development, Department of Development Services, State of Utah, 1973.
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