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Apartment Market Report

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Apartment Market Report MIDYEAR 2018 APARTMENT MARKET REPORT GREATER SALT LAKE AREA A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication cushmanwakefield.com EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On behalf of all our Cushman & Wakefield Investment Group brokers, I am privileged to present our annual Apartment Market Report for 2018. Salt Lake County leads as one of the nation’s strongest Apartment Markets, with another year of historic growth. THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS YEAR’S STUDY INCLUDE: • Vacancy rate of 2.7%, in line with the lowest ever reported (2.6% in 2017) • Seventh consecutive year with vacancy below 4% • The near-record level of projects currently under construction (6,650 units) does not pose a major threat to the market • 2,300 new apartment units received permits during 2017, achieving a well-balanced pipeline following the prior year, which had the highest level of apartment construction in over 30 years at 4,500 units • Projects under construction will increase rental inventory by 5.6% • Rental rates increased by 6% to an average of $1.24 per square foot, or $1,072 per unit • Net in-migration is at its highest level in over 10 years • Salt Lake County’s employment growth remains strong at 2.4% • Salt Lake City dominates new development, accounting for half of all units under construction • Development of communities with tax-credit units for low- income increased by 5% from the previous year THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING YEAR INCLUDES: • Market indicators show no sign of oversupply • Record-high levels of construction (11,350 units by 2021) do not pose a major threat to the market • Favorable market conditions make destabilization unlikely • Rental rates are anticipated to increase 4% annually over the next five years • Demand from investors remains very strong for quality multi-family product Thank you to our clients and partners for making Salt Lake County such a wonderful market in which to invest in commercial real estate. Sincerely, Kip Paul Vice Chairman, Investment Sales www.cushmanwakefield.com Alta Gateway Station, Salt Lake City SUMMARY OF RENTAL RATE AND VACANCY SURVEY The Salt Lake County apartment market continues 2.8% vacancy rate, compared to $1.17 for a west-side to set historic records. For the fourth consecutive property with a 2.7% vacancy rate. year, apartment communities in Salt Lake County are essentially “fully occupied” with vacancy rates For those apartment communities built since 2000, below 3%. The July 2018 vacancy rate is 2.7%, in line overall rent per square foot is $1.27, while the with the 2017 record-low rate of 2.6%. This year also average monthly rental rate is $1,169. However, they marks the seventh consecutive year with vacancy also have the highest vacancy rate at 3.3%, compared rates below 4%. Many housing analysts assume a to communities built in 1999 and prior at 2.4%. 5% vacancy rate to be the “natural rate” or In 2017, nearly 2,300 new apartment units received equilibrium vacancy rate for a healthy market. building permits in Salt Lake County. This is down Undeniably, the Salt Lake County apartment market nearly 50% from 2016, which had the highest level continues to be a “very tight” market, even with the of apartment construction in over 30 years. This is completion of numerous large projects in 2018. not due to a decline in demand, but rather reflects In the past year, rental rates have increased by 6%. the volatility in permit activity due to the timing of The combined average for all types of units is large projects. To date, the market has had no $1,072. The average for a two-bedroom, two-bath trouble absorbing new units. Presently, there are unit is $1,227; and $1,311 for a three-bedroom, two- 6,650 apartment units under construction in the bath unit. county. Additionally, there are 66 projects proposed with 9,700 units (with half of this activity centered Midsize apartment communities (100-250 units) in Salt Lake City). have the highest average monthly rents at $1,132. Large apartment communities (250+ units) have Beyond the Numbers the lowest vacancy rate at 2.2%. The demand from tenants for top-quality Due to several new, high-quality apartment multi-family product is stronger than ever, and communities in downtown and Sugar House, rental Salt Lake County continues its run of the properties on the east side in 2018 have higher rents tightest sustained market conditions in its history. than west-side apartments, but are comparable in Despite this near-historic level of construction activity, regards to vacancy. Currently, the average rent per vacancy rates remain low and rents are rising, thus square foot for an east-side property is $1.30 with a encouraging additional development. Midyear 2018 Apartment Market Report / 3 MIDYEAR 2018 SURVEY RESULTS Salt Lake County’s 2.7% vacancy rate is nearly the $1,072, a 6% increase from the average rate of $1,011 lowest ever reported in the 17 years of annual in 2017, Table 2. Rental rates, on a square foot basis, surveys, Table 1. Despite the completion of 12,500 increased from $1.18 in 2017 to $1.24 in 2018. Studio units in the past four years, the vacancy rate re- units had the largest increase in rents over the past mains below 3%, allowing for the “tightest” sus- year, as the average rent increased 6.6%, from $745 tained market conditions in the county’s history. to $794. A summary of rental market characteris- tics, including average rent, size of unit, rent per All types of apartment units have experienced square foot and vacancy rate is given in Table 3. increases in average rental rates. The combined average monthly rental rate for all types of units is Apartment Vacancy Rates Studio One Bedroom Two Bedroom One Bath Two Bedroom Two Bath Three Bedroom Two Bath Overall TABLE 1 Apartment Vacancy Rates One Two Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom Studio Bedroom One Bath Two Bath Two Bath Overall 2002 5.7% 5.6% 4.3% 6.0% 4.5% 5.4% 2003 7.4% 8.5% 8.0% 5.7% 3.9% 7.6% 2004 6.3% 6.7% 7.6% 7.7% 7.4% 7.2% 2005 6.6% 5.3% 7.7% 5.5% 7.0% 6.1% 2006 6.0% 3.2% 4.6% 3.2% 3.4% 4.0% 2007 4.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 3.2% 2008 5.7% 4.3% 4.1% 5.2% 4.8% 4.6% 2009 4.9% 6.6% 7.7% 8.0% 6.6% 7.2% 2010 6.6% 5.2% 6.5% 5.5% 6.3% 5.7% 2011 7.2% 5.1% 6.2% 4.4% 3.6% 5.2% 2012 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 2013 2.0% 3.2% 3.7% 5.1% 4.1% 3.9% 2014 <2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 3.9% 2.8% 3.0% 2015 <2.0% 2.5% 3.8% 2.5% 2.0% 2.7% 2016 <2.0% 3.4% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 2017 4.9% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.1% 2.6% 2018 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.4% 2.7% 4 / Cushman & Wakefield www.cushmanwakefield.com Change in Average Rental Rates by Type of Unit Overall Rates and Size by Type of Unit Studio One Two Two Three Overall Bedroom Bedroom Bedroom Bedroom Studio One Bedroom Two Bedroom One Bath One Bath Two Bath Two Bath Two Bedroom Two Bath Three Bedroom Two Bath Overall Rents () Square Footage Beyond the Numbers Despite an impressive delivery of 12,500 units to 2.7% 6.0% the market over the past four years, Salt Lake overall vacancy rate - overall rental rate increase County remains in a housing shortage. Market second lowest in 17 years since 2017 indicators show no sign of oversupply, and new development is necessary to meet demand. TABLE 2 Change in Average Rental Rates by Type of Unit % Change Type of Unit 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2017-2018 Studio $480 $515 $538 $586 $603 $638 $705 $745 $794 6.6% One Bedroom $629 $659 $709 $745 $757 $804 $833 $906 $964 6.4% Two Bedroom, One Bath $706 $725 $759 $792 $809 $833 $879 $932 $983 5.5% Two Bedroom, Two Bath $816 $862 $943 $969 $983 $1,050 $1,085 $1,158 $1,227 6.0% Three Bedroom, Two Bath $956 $1,025 $1,051 $1,075 $1,085 $1,132 $1,244 $1,278 $1,311 2.3% Overall $720 $754 $814 $850 $865 $907 $949 $1,011 $1,072 6.0% TABLE 3 Overall Rental and Vacancy Rates in 2018 by Type of Unit Square Rent/ Type of Unit Rents Feet S.F. Vacancy Studio $794 432 $1.84 2.0% One Bedroom $964 682 $1.41 2.6% Two Bedroom, One Bath $983 911 $1.08 2.7% Two Bedroom, Two Bath $1,227 1,006 $1.22 2.9% Three Bedroom, Two Bath $1,311 1,221 $1.07 3.4% Overall $1,072 865 $1.24 2.7% Block 44, Salt Lake City Midyear 2018 Apartment Market Report / 5 MIDYEAR 2018 Rental and Vacancy Rates by Size of Apartment Community Vacancy and rental rates vary depending on the In the past, vacancy rates have often been lower for size of the apartment community. The overall small apartment communities. But in 2018, the large average rental rate for apartment communities of apartment communities (250+ units) have the 100 – 250 units is $1,132, higher than the average lowest vacancy rate of 2.2%, compared to 3.6% for rental rate of $1,066 for communities with more communities with fewer than 100 units.
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