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4.1 Introduction in Order for Umgeni Water to Fulfil Its Function As a Regional Bulk Water Service Provider, It Requires a Secure and Sustainable Supply of Raw Water

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4.1 Introduction in Order for Umgeni Water to Fulfil Its Function As a Regional Bulk Water Service Provider, It Requires a Secure and Sustainable Supply of Raw Water 4. WATER RESOURCES 4.1 Introduction In order for Umgeni Water to fulfil its function as a regional bulk water service provider, it requires a secure and sustainable supply of raw water. The reconciliation between water resource availability and water demands is therefore of primary importance to the organisation and forms an integral part of its infrastructure planning process. Understanding what water resources are available to the organisation both currently and in the future, and what impacts affect the level of assurance from these resources, is key to achieving the balance between supply and demand and in maintaining the assured level of supply required by the customers. The natural climate is the principal determinant of surface water runoff and groundwater. This section describes the climate as experienced within Umgeni Water’s operational area, as well as the possible impacts of climate change on surface water runoff in the Mgeni System. This section also describes the status quo of the water resources, both surface and groundwater, within Umgeni Water’s operational area, and mentions future development plans that are significant to the organisation. The water resources are grouped in logical regions as shown in Figure 4.1. Finally, a progress note is provided on Umgeni Water’s investigation into the less conventional supply options of wastewater reclamation (re-use) and seawater desalination. 88 Figure 4.1 Water resource regions in Umgeni Water’s operational area. 89 4.2 Climate There are three distinct climatic zones within Umgeni Water’s operational area (Figure 4.2), namely: The Köppen classification Cwb which is the alpine-type climate found in and along the Drakensberg Mountains. The Köppen classification Cfb which is the more temperate summer rain climate of the Midlands region. The Köppen classification Cfa which is the subtropical perennial rainfall characterising the areas along the coast. The mean annual precipitation (MAP) within the Umgeni Water operational area varies between 700 and 1000 mm (Figure 4.3) with most rains falling in summer (October to March), although there are occasional winter showers. The national average MAP is about 450 mm per year. The peak rainfall months are December to February in the inland areas and November to March along the coast. The prevailing weather patterns are predominantly orographic, where warm moist air moves in over the continent from the Indian Ocean, rises up the escarpment, cools down and creates rainfall. Rain shadows occur in the interior valley basins of the major rivers where the annual rainfall can drop to below 700 mm. The spatial distribution of evaporation is shown in Figure 4.4. This distribution has a similar pattern to rainfall where a relative high humidity is experienced in summer. There is a daily mean peak in February, ranging from 68% in the inland areas to greater than 72% for the coast and a daily mean low in July, ranging from 60% in the inland areas to greater than 68% at the coast. Potential mean annual gross evaporation (as measured by ‘A’ pan) ranges from between 1 600 mm and 1 800 mm in the west to between 1 400 mm and 1 600 mm in the coastal areas (Figure 4.4). Temperature distribution is shown in Figure 4.5. The mean annual temperature ranges between 12°C and 14°C in the west to between 20°C and 22°C at the coast. Maximum temperatures are experienced in the summer months of December to February and minimum temperatures in the winter months of June and July. Snowfalls on the Drakensberg Mountain between April and September have an influence on the climate. Frost occurs over the same period in the inland areas. The average number of heavy frost days per annum range from 31 to 60 days for inland areas to nil for the eastern coastal area. The mean annual runoff is illustrated in Figure 4.6. 90 Figure 4.2 Climatic Zones (Köppen Classification). 91 Figure 4.3 Mean annual precipitation (mm). 92 Figure 4.4 Mean annual evaporation (mm). 93 Figure 4.5 Mean annual temperature (0C). 94 Figure 4.6 Mean annual runoff (mm). 95 4.3 Possible impacts of a changing climate on water security Background There is general consensus in the scientific community that the global climate is changing and that increased production of greenhouse gases (GHG) is a major cause of this change. Consequently, the climate is warming and that even if all GHG emissions were to cease immediately, temperatures would continue to climb into the future. The specifics of how local precipitation and rainfall events may change are however still unclear. Even more uncertain are the potential impacts that this will have on runoff and human systems, infrastructure and operational issues. However, it is prudent to consider these risks and make allowances in appropriate planning and design, particularly given the significant costs and long planning periods required for major infrastructure investments such as dams, pipelines, structures, buildings and transport infrastructure. Since 2006, Umgeni Water has largely been at the forefront of the consideration of potential climate change impacts and incorporating these into operations planning. In 2012 the Water Research Commission, with support from Umgeni Water, completed a study looking at the potential impacts of climate change on the Mgeni System using the outputs from 31 climate scenarios and daily streamflow impacts. These were applied to the existing yield configuration of the Mgeni System, although, the general consensus was that the results were not helpful in terms of water resources planning due to their wide range of uncertainty. Since the completion of these studies there have been a number of developments in the approach to incorporating climate change impacts into water resources modelling and planning decisions in South Africa. National Climate Change Strategy During 2013, the DWS prepared a Climate Change Strategy. The Strategy included the modelling of the potential impacts of climate change using 5 regional downscaled climate models in four pilot catchments viz. the Western Cape, Inkomati, Umzimvubu and de Aar. The Strategy also assessed the potential climate change threats in each of the six main hydro-climatic zones of South Africa and made recommendations on the robustness of each system. The conclusion for Zone 2: East Coast from Pongola to Mzimkulu, was that there would likely be an increase in rainfall in the eastern part of the Zone with a potential increase in yields, but that more frequent and more extreme flooding is also likely to occur. There could also be increased dam and evaporation losses and consideration should be given to changing dam operating rules to address potential risks due to flooding and consequential higher sediment loads. 96 Development under Climate Change study During 2013, the National Treasury commissioned a study by the United National University – World Institute for Development Economics (UNU-WIDER) to investigate the potential economic impacts of climate change through a number of impact channels including water supply and road infrastructure. This study was done using a Hybrid Frequency Distribution (HFD) approach that considered all possible GCM outputs to give some indication of the potential risks and probabilities associated with climate change impacts. The biophysical modelling component included generating monthly time series of catchment runoff for all quaternary catchments in South Africa up to the year 2050 for over 300 climate model outputs under two mitigation scenarios; Unconstrained Emissions (UCE) and Level 1 Stabilisation (L1S). The runoff scenarios were then used as inputs to a national configuration of the yield model at secondary catchment scale to look at the potential impacts on water supply in each of the 9 WMAs. The results showed a wide range of potential impacts, but with the majority of models showing an increase in runoff in the catchments along the east coast of South Africa. Some models showed very high impacts, likely to be accompanied by significant increases in the risk of flooding. There are, however, still a handful of models that show the potential for drying in these catchments. The results reflect the impacts on catchment runoff and show a general increase in the ability to supply future water demands in KwaZulu-Natal, although there is potential for a reduction in the uThukela. An important consideration is that this modelling process uses a national model configuration and is therefore not able to capture the specific details of individual systems. A strong recommendation from this study was that these climate scenarios should also be applied to a selection of existing, more detailed systems models, to study the impacts in more detail. Given its history with climate change studies, the Mgeni System would be an ideal case study for this more detailed study. Long Term Adaptation Strategy The Long Term Adaptation Strategy (LTAS) is a flagship program of the Department of Environment Affairs (DEA) which is aimed at assessing the likely impacts of climate change on multiple sectors in South Africa as well as developing long term adaptation strategies. An important outcome from Phase 1 of the LTAS is a review of the existing regional climate model scenarios from both the University of Cape Town (UCT) and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the development of four consensus regionally downscaled LTAS climate scenarios. Potential Future Studies on Climate Change Impacts for Umgeni Water Given the recent developments in the modelling of potential climate change impacts on water resources systems in South Africa, and Phase 3 of LTAS, the time is right for Umgeni Water to actively pursue further studies that would improve the management of water resources and adaptive capacity to manage the potential impacts of a changing climate on water and infrastructure. In addition, resilience methodologies can be determined so that if/when climate change negatively affects weather patterns, then these methods can be employed to minimise 97 impacts on infrastructure and communities.
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