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SHS Web of Conferences 65, 05002 (2019) https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20196505002 M3E2 2019 Predicting activity results of the specialized tour operator Marina Drobotova1,*, Viktoriia Krasnomovets1, Olga Radchenko1, and Artur Romanov2 1Cherkasy Bohdan Khmelnytsky National University, Department of Tourism, Hotel and Restaurant Business, Cherkasy, Ukraine 2International University of Economics and Humanities Academician Stepan Demianchuk, Department of Management, Rivne, Ukraine Abstract. Hospitality provides wide opportunities for entrepreneurship. Feasibility and forecasting of results have always been relevant for implementation of entrepreneurial ideas. Aim of the study is to clarify specifics of forecasting of specialized tour operators’ activities. Forecasting methods in tourism, as a rule, are based on opinion polls and extrapolation techniques. Difficulties with forecasting of results are related to indefinite part of specialized tours in overall volume of tours. And for every specialized tour this part depends from character and number of factors, which define demand for tourist product. Result of the study is the proposed algorithm for finding of planned sales of specialized tours for ensuring of profitable activities. With the example of gastronomical tours, which have good perspectives in Ukraine, it is proved that planning of more than 25-30% of specialized tours in overall sales of tours is not feasible. Finding of this research can be applied to product development, as well as marketing and strategic planning. Introduction pre-arranged services, offered for an inclusive price, containing at least transport and accommodation together with some additional travel service, has become an The sphere of hospitality offers wide opportunities for integral part of modern culture [6]. entrepreneurship, as tourism is an international Specialized tour operators concentrate their activities phenomenon, with constant steady growth and with on the established tourist product or market segment. profound impact on many spheres of economic and They can be tour operators of: social development. Feasibility and forecasting of results – special purpose in certain directions-destinations (tour have always been relevant for implementation of to England, Italy, France, Switzerland, Egypt, Turkey, entrepreneurial ideas. Thailand, etc.); Tourism consumption can essentially be divided into – special accommodation facilities (hotels, bungalows, institutionalized and non-institutionalized tourism [1] or agricultural homesteads, etc.) or certain tourist centers into group package tours and individual travel [2]. (e.g. Mallorca, the Costa del Sol, Antalya, etc.); Tourism system consists of tourists, tourist- – certain type of tourism (safari in Kenya, religious tours generating regions, transit routes, destination regions, to Rome, Jerusalem, skiing, etc.); and the tourism industry, which are all arranged into – a specific social group (tours for young people, spatial and functional connections and operate within couples, businessmen, etc.); broader physical, cultural, social, economic, political, – transport type (bus tours, cruises, tourist trains, cycling and technological environments [3–4]. routes, etc.) One of the main actors of the tourist market is a tour Economic results of tour enterprise activity are operator, as a producer of tourist product. The choice of estimated by different authors on various indicators. We tourist products set for production and implementation consider the following indicators to be expedient for tour will ensure commercial success in the market. However, operators: diversity and heterogeneity of tourist products and their 1. Marginal Profit = Gross price – net price. great flexibility makes the process of forecasting the 2. Gross Profit = Marginal profit – Permanent results of economic activity difficult and not always Expenses. reliable. We consider which factors and conditions need 3. The profit level of the developed tourism product = to be taken into account when forecasting the results of a Gross profit / Marginal profit. future company, namely specialized tour operator, on the 4. Profitability of tourism product = Gross profit * example of gastronomy tourism. 100 / Total cost. Tour operator is directly involved in the planning, 5. Payback period for capital investment = Amount development, promotion and realization of tourism of the endowed capital associated with state registration product for commercial purposes. Thus, the realization of the company, license redemption and the authorized of tourism activity in the broad sense of the activity is capital formation / Net profit of a tour company for a carried out by various enterprises as economic agents of year. tourism market [5]. Package tourism as a combination of * Corresponding author: [email protected] © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). SHS Web of Conferences 65, 05002 (2019) https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20196505002 M3E2 2019 6. The invested capital efficiency = Net profit of a The year of 2017 has been proclaimed by the United tour company per year / The amount of the invested Nations as the International Year of Sustainable Tourism capital associated with the state registration of the for Development. Gastronomy plays a significant role in company, license redemption and the authorized capital the motivations for travel and tourism, developing formation. gastronomy experiences for tourism is an attractive When creating a company, in our case – a specialized development strategy, because it appeals to high yield tour operator, it is advisable to estimate, first of all, tourism. In addition, integrating gastronomy experiences marginal profit, net profit and payback period for capital into sustainable tourism development in rural and investment. Calculation of these indicators is based on outlying areas helps to ease poverty. Because of the determining a production program of the tour company, important relationship between gastronomy and other namely, estimation of the number of implemented tours. policy areas (agriculture, food production, country In determining the production program and the branding and cultural and creative industry), it is very performance of a specialized tour operator, prediction important to develop an integrated and holistic approach complexity is associated with the fact that the to policy development and implementation [9]. implementation share of the specialized tours in the total The 1st UNWTO World Forum on food tourism was volume is uncertain. It depends on the nature and organized in 2015 with the aim to enhance management number of factors for each specialized tour. quality of the public and private sector in the field of For development of internal tourism problems of gastronomy tourism. Based on the Forum, UNWTO feasibility of sales plans and forecasting of activity published the first set of conclusions: food tourism is a results are identical for organized internal tourism of any cross-cutting segment, incorporating various economic kind. And, respectively, for any specialized tour sectors. operator. Forecasting methods, as a rule, are based on Although the tourism sector makes a significant opinion polls and extrapolation techniques. contribution to the GDP of countries and job creation, We consider the problems of predicting the activity the sustainability of this growth should be taken into results of a specialized tour operator on an example of consideration. Sustainable food tourism should culinary / food / gastronomy tourism. Despite of incorporate the three pillars of sustainability, defined by similarity of these notions, different organizations prefer UNWTO: environmental (reducing emissions), socio- only one of them. For example, UNWTO uses cultural (the authenticity of a destination) and economic “gastronomy tourism”, while such influential US-based (equitable distribution). Promotion should be global, but organization as World Food Travel Association – “food the experience local. Food tourism is a form of cultural (and beverage) tourism”. The largest network of culinary preservation and should be configured around the quality and hospitality schools in the world Le Gordon Bleu and authenticity of the product and territory. Food prefers “culinary tourism” etc. While culinary tourism tourism is a catalyst for the local economy: it provides focuses on food products, gastro-tourism extends beyond the opportunity for job creation and the development of what we eat. It includes how we eat, where and when we local economies, which in turn positively affects other eat, and the reason behind eating a particular food [7]. sectors. It is also a major contributor to overcoming A product of both world history and contemporary seasonality [9]. mass culture, culinary tourism is a scholarly field of The urgency of considering the market of study that is emerging as an important part of the tourism gastronomy tourism services is stipulated by the fact that industry. It refers to adventurous eating, eating out of it has a rich resource potential in Ukraine. It promotes curiosity, exploring other cultures through food and the the socio-economic development of regions, the development of food as a tourist destination and popularization of potential tourism resources among the attraction. In culinary tourism, the primary motivation population.
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