Proposed Flood Mitigation Measures to Be Implemented for the Oshakati/Ongwediva Area

Home , Okatana Constituency, Ondangwa Urban, Ongwediva, Ongwediva Constituency, Oshakati, Oshakati East

PROPOSED FLOOD MITIGATION MEASURES TO BE IMPLEMENTED FOR THE OSHAKATI/ONGWEDIVA AREA

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)

DRAFT SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

JULY 2012

Social Impact Assessment for the Proposed PROJECT NAME Mitigation Measures to be implemented for the Oshakati/Ongwediva area

STAGE OF REPORT Draft Report

CLIENT Enviro Dynamics CC

LEAD SPECIALIST Ernst Simon

DATE OF RELEASE August 2012

CONTRIBUTORS TO THE Ernst Simon

REPORT Johan de Kock

DECLARATION

I , Ernst Arthur Simon hereby declare that I do:

(a) have knowledge of and experience in conducting assessments (my area of expertise), including knowledge of the Act, these regulations and guidelines that have relevance to the proposed activity;

(b) perform the work relating to the application in an objective manner, even if this results in views and findings that are not favourable to the applicant;

I also declare that there is, to my knowledge, no information in my possession that reasonably has or may have the potential of influencing –

(i) any decision to be taken with respect to the application in terms of the Act and the regulations; or

(ii) the objectivity of this report, plan or document prepared in terms of the Act and these regulations.

Signed: ______

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Social Impact Assessment (SIA) was done as part of the environmental impact assessment and technical investigations for the proposed Flood Mitigation Measures for the Oshakati area. The Flood Mitigation Measures are a result of the realisation that something needed to be done to protect the urban area of Oshakati from seasonal flooding. The preparation of a Concept Master Plan for Oshakati was commissioned in 2007 and three key flood mitigation measures resulted from the concept plan. These are:

 the construction of a dike around Oshakati commencing at the Ongwediva highlands running in a westerly direction to Okatana and then slowly curving southward towards Ompundja;

 the deepening of the Okatana Channel south of the dike where it runs through town; and

 the design and development of an internal storm water system for the town of Oshakati to drain rainwater from town.

The rationale of the proposed interventions is:

 to protect people and property from seasonal flooding inside Oshakati;

 to provide the opportunity to reclaim low lying land for urban development and thereby enabling logical and cost effective urban integration and development as opposed to ad hoc development guided by the availability of higher lying pieces of land scattered through the area;

 to facilitate the gradual implementation of the Concept Master Plan.

However, these interventions are likely to also have a number of negative social impacts. Through the course of the assessment, the following impacts were identified as valid and in need of assessment.

 Relocation / resettlement and compensation of households.

 New and more severe flooding due to the potential backwater effect of the dike.

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 Loss of livelihoods, especially the poor and vulnerable.

 Creation of local employment opportunities.

 Safety risk to people and livestock of injury or drowning.

 Safety risk to people and livestock from construction machinery.

 Dust and noise disturbance

 Flood protection of the Oshakati / Ongwediva urban area.

 Reclamation of land for urban development.

 Barrier effect of dike and channel.

 Benefits of project for the local economy.

 Increased business, recreation and tourism opportunities.

 Breeding ground for water-borne disease vectors.

 Improved sanitation due to the movement of previously standing (contaminated) water away from Oshakati.

 Destruction of graves or cultural sites.

 Increase in the spread of HIV/Aids and other STDs.

The Oshakati-Ongwediva-Ondangwa area is regarded as one of the most important commercial, industrial and administrative nodes in Namibia. The recent floods affected the lives of thousands of people residing in low lying areas. The urban area of Oshakati where a high density of people reside, was heavily influenced with access to schools, clinics and businesses affected and many households flooded to a point where the Government of Namibia and the Oshakati Town Council had to provide relief to the flood victims. The flooding led to the displacement of 984 households in 2008, 708 in 2009, 377 in 2010, 813 in 2011 and 155 by February 2012.

The key socio-economic trends in the Oshana Region considered in this assessment are the following:

 The region is densely populated, to such an extent that suitable higher lying land for crop production and grazing for livestock is becoming scarce.

 This contributes to high levels of urbanisation and growth of the main centres of Oshakati, Ongwediva and Ondangwa. Young people especially tend to look for a better life and opportunities in these urban areas.

 Mean household incomes in the region are increasing steadily. However, the rate of growth is lower than the national average.

 The rate of natural population growth is on the decrease with fertility rates declining from 5.6 in 1991 to 3.8 in 2001.

 The population age distribution indicates a typical pyramid for a developing nation with a high percentage of young people if compared to the pyramids of developed societies.

 Education and health facilities are well provided and compares favourably with national health and education indicators. However, the HIV infection rate in Oshakati is very high yet on the decrease.

 Based on the food consumption ratio, about 3% of all households in the Region can be regarded as very poor while about 21% can be regarded as poor.

 Unemployment is high and on the increase. It rose from 21% in 1991 to 40% in 2001 and this trend is supported by a large young population completing school every year but being unable to find gainful employment.

 In the more rural areas on the outskirts of Oshakati where the negative social impact of the proposed project will be felt most, household sizes are still relatively big with many households surviving off their land only. However, between 20% and 38% of households in the three identified impact zones earn substantial incomes from employment in the urban settlements.

 It is interesting to note that few people regard themselves as farmers, yet about 30% - 40% of households have no cash income and live from their fields.

 More than 90% of all households own no livestock while those that own livestock seldom have a sustainable herd.

pensions play a significant role in ensuring a little cash income to some of the most vulnerable households.

 The vast majority of households that must be resettled as a result of the proposed project have been living at their current place of residence for more than 10years or was born there.

The main social impact that will result from the project is the land take required for the footprint and working space of the dike and the channel next to it. It will result in the need to relocate 60 homesteads/houses/structures. Of these 33 are traditional homesteads with fields. The significance of this impact is rated as a high and negative. Mitigation of this impact is through fair compensation in accordance with the Government Compensation Policy for Communal Land. The impact will decrease to a low significance after mitigation.

However, some households are dependent on their land for their livelihood and the loss of livelihood sources, even if compensated for, may not be able to maintain their current levels of subsistence. Additional measures are required to address this impact, the significance of which is rated as high and negative. Mitigation measures include the relocation of those that are dependent on their fields and grazing to other areas where they can retain their current livelihood systems, assistance with transportation to new areas, monitoring of the well-being of these households by the traditional leaders and the preparation of a relocation plan detailing the methodology of resettlement and providing for special care for the poor and vulnerable. These mitigation measures, together with fair compensation will reduce the significance of this negative impact to low.

Based on the findings of the hydrological model, there is a risk of more severe flooding to 54 households and additional flooding to another 146 households as a result of the backwater effect of the dike. The confidence in these predictions is moderate and it is impractical to relocate all these households based on a perception of risk that cannot be verified. To deal with this potential negative impact with medium significance, a monitoring system is proposed which will help with early warning of floods that could result in more severe backwater flooding. It is also regarded necessary to have an emergency response plan in place to assist these households should it be necessary. The proposed mitigation measures do not reduce the risk and it remains negative with medium significance.

Positive impacts assessed are the creation of a substantial number of employment opportunities during construction, the protection of Oshakati as a whole and specific informal residential areas from future flooding, the ability to now use “reclaimed” land for urban development and the ability to have a much more integrated, compact and cost effective urban form than was possible before, benefits to the local economy through lower costs and especially the drainage of stormwater from town where many businesses used to close or become inaccessible during the rainy season, improved business opportunities, and the ability to protect urban township services, especially the sewer system from leaking into ground and surface water during flood periods. Enhancement measures are possible in all cases to cement the benefit that could result from the project.

Other negative impacts assessed are the safety risks posed by the deepening of the channels and excavation of borrow pits during operation, safety risks to people and livestock from construction machinery during the construction phase, dust and noise disturbance during construction, the barrier effect of the dike and channel, the increase in water borne disease, the destruction of graves and cultural resources and the increase in the spread of HIV/AIDS and other STD’s. All of these impacts, with the exception of the spread of HIV/AIDS can be successfully mitigated to acceptable (low) levels of significance.

In conclusion, the social assessment team found that although there are people who will benefit and others who will pay for the proposed project, none of the identified impacts present a fatal flaw which could prevent the project from proceeding. However, it is of the utmost importance that the mitigation measures are implemented with due care and diligence, especially those that address the plight of the households that will need to be relocated.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1

2 BACKGROUND ...... 1

3 PROJECT DESCRIPTION ...... 3

3.1 Rationale ...... 3

3.2 The Proposed Dike ...... 4

3.3 Proposed Changes to the Okatana River ...... 6

3.4 Internal Stormwater ...... 7

3.5 Project Scheduling ...... 7

4 METHODOLOGY AND WORK PLAN ...... 8

4.1 Methodology and Work Plan for the Social Impact Assessment ...... 10

5 LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK ...... 14

6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE ...... 16

6.1 The Region and Sub Region ...... 16

6.1.1 Settlement Pattern ...... 17

6.1.2 Demographic Profile ...... 18

6.1.3 Educational Profile ...... 24

6.1.4 Health Profile ...... 27

6.1.5 Livelihood Profile ...... 28

6.2 Socio-Economic Profile of the Affected Households ...... 33

6.2.1 Introduction ...... 33

6.2.2 Demographic Profile ...... 33

6.2.3 Educational Profile ...... 35

6.2.4 Permanency of Residence ...... 37

6.2.5 Employment and Income ...... 38

6.3 Key Socio-economic trends and issues of Importance for this Social Impact Assessment ...... 42

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7 IDENTIFICATION OF KEY SOCIAL IMPACTS ...... 44

7.1 Literature Review ...... 44

7.2 Issues Listing ...... 45

8 IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION / ENHANCEMENT ...... 51

8.1 Relocation/resettlement and Compensation of Households ...... 52

8.1.1 During construction ...... 52

8.1.2 During operation ...... 52

8.1.3 Impact significance ...... 53

8.1.4 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 54

8.1.5 Significance after Mitigation ...... 54

8.2 Loss of livelihoods, especially for the Poor and Vulnerable ...... 56

8.2.1 During Construction and Operation ...... 56

8.2.2 Impact significance ...... 56

8.2.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 57

8.2.4 Significance after Mitigation ...... 58

8.3 New and more severe Flooding of some households as a result of the Backwater effect of the Dike System...... 59

8.3.1 During Operation ...... 60

8.3.2 Impact significance ...... 60

8.3.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 61

8.3.4 Significance after Mitigation ...... 62

8.4 Creation of Local Employment Opportunities...... 64

8.4.1 During construction ...... 64

8.4.2 Impact significance ...... 64

8.4.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 65

8.4.4 Significance after Enhancement...... 66

8.5 Safety Risk to People and Livestock of Injury or Drowning ...... 67

8.5.1 During operation ...... 67

8.5.2 Impact significance ...... 68

8.5.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 69

8.5.4 Significance after Mitigation ...... 69

8.6 Safety Risk to People and Livestock from Construction Machinery ...... 71

8.6.1 During construction ...... 71

8.6.2 Impact significance ...... 71

8.6.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 72

8.6.4 Significance after Mitigation ...... 72

8.7 Dust and Noise Disturbance ...... 74

8.7.1 During operation ...... 74

8.7.2 Impact significance ...... 74

8.7.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 75

8.7.4 Significance after Mitigation ...... 75

8.8 Flood Protection of the Oshakati / Ongwediva Urban Area ...... 76

8.8.1 During operation ...... 76

8.8.2 Impact significance ...... 77

8.8.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 78

8.8.4 Significance after Enhancement...... 78

8.9 Reclamation of Land for Urban Development ...... 79

8.9.1 During operation ...... 79

8.9.2 Impact significance ...... 80

8.9.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 81

8.10 Barrier Effect of Dike and Channel ...... 81

8.10.1 During operation ...... 81

8.10.2 Impact significance ...... 82

8.10.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 83

8.11 Benefits of Project for the Local Economy ...... 84

8.11.1 During construction ...... 84

8.11.2 During operation ...... 84

8.11.3 Impact significance ...... 84

8.11.4 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 85

8.12 Increased Business, Recreation and Tourism opportunities ...... 86

8.12.1 During operation ...... 86

8.12.2 Impact significance ...... 86

8.12.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 87

8.12.4 Significance after Enhancement...... 87

8.13 Breeding Ground for Water-borne Disease Vectors ...... 88

8.13.1 During operation ...... 88

8.13.2 Impact significance ...... 88

8.13.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 90

8.13.4 Significance after Mitigation ...... 90

8.14 Improved Sanitation due to the movement of Previously Standing (contaminated) Water away from Oshakati...... 91

8.14.1 During operation ...... 91

8.14.2 Impact significance ...... 91

8.14.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 92

8.14.4 Significance after Enhancement...... 92

8.15 Destruction of Graves or Cultural Resources ...... 93

8.15.1 During construction ...... 93

8.15.2 During operation ...... 93

8.15.3 Impact significance ...... 94

8.15.4 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 94

8.15.5 Significance after Mitigation ...... 95

8.16 Increase in the Spread of HIV/Aids and other STDs ...... 96

8.16.1 During construction ...... 96

8.16.2 Impact significance ...... 97

8.16.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures ...... 98

8.16.4 Significance after Mitigation ...... 98

9 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 100

10 WORKS CITED ...... 102

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2-1: Typical dike section with dual carriageway ...... 5 Figure 2-2: Sluice Gates ...... 6 Figure 3-1: Work plan for the Environmental Assessment...... 9 Figure 5-1: Locality Map of the Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies ...... 16 Figure 5-2: Population density map of Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva, 2011 ...... 17 Figure 5-3: Population growth projection for the Oshana Region for the period 2001-2021 ...... 19 Figure 5-4: Population growth projections for Okatana, Oshakati East and ...... 20 Figure 5-5: Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituency ...... 23 Figure 5-6: Number of schools in relation to number of learners in the Oshana Region, 2005-2011 ...... 25 Figure 5-7: Learner / teacher ratio of Namibia and Oshana Region, 2005-2011 ...... 26 Figure 5-8: Junior Secondary examination pass rate of the Oshana region, 2005-2011 ...... 26 Figure 5-9: Incidence of poverty by region, 2003/2004 ...... 29 Figure 5-10: Namibia, Oshana Region and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies’ unemployment rate by sex and labour force participation rates by sex, 2001 ...... 31 Figure 5-11: Percentage of households by main sources of income for Namibia, Oshana region, and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies, 2001 ...... 32 Figure 5-12: Sex distribution by Impact Zone ...... 34 Figure 5-13: Age distribution by Impact Zone ...... 34 Figure 5-14: Educational Attainment by Impact Zone...... 35 Figure 5-15: School Attendance for children younger than 16 years of age ...... 36 Figure 5-16: School attendance of people older than 15 years of age ...... 36 Figure 5-17: Duration of stay at current place of residence ...... 37 Figure 5-18: Employment Status of all household members older than 15 years ...... 39 Figure 5-19: Occupation of Household Members older than 15 years by Impact Zone ...... 40

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 6-1: Total populations for Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies for 2001 and 2011 projected up to 2021 ...... 20 Table 6-2: Oshana Region, and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies’ population age distribution, 2001 ...... 22 Table 6-3: Percentage school attendance of children aged 6-15 for the Oshana Region, and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies, 2001 ...... 25 Table 6-4: Health indicators for Namibia and Oshana Region, 2000 ...... 27 Table 6-5: Percentage of the Region and constituencies work force that are employed / unemployed, 2001 ...... 30 Table 6-6: Mean Household size by Impact Zone ...... 33 Table 6-7: Mean number of livestock per household by Type ...... 40 Table 6-8: Distribution of livestock ownership amongst households ...... 41 Table 6-9: Percentage of households per income category by zone...... 42 Table 7-1: List of potential socio-economic impacts associated with this project and selection of validity ...... 45 Table 8-1: Rating methodology ...... 51 Table 8-2: Summary of Impact Assessment – Relocation and Compensation ...... 55 Table 8-3: Summary of Impact Assessment – Loss of Livelihoods ...... 59 Table 8-4: Summary of Impact Assessment – Backwater Flooding ...... 63 Table 8-5: Summary of Impact Assessment – Employment Creation ...... 67 Table 8-6: Summary of Impact Assessment – Safety Risks of Injury/Drowning ...... 70 Table 8-7: Summary of Impact Assessment – Safety Risk of Construction Machinery ...... 73 Table 8-8: Summary of Impact Assessment – Dust and Noise ...... 76 Table 8-9: Summary of Impact Assessment – Flood Protection ...... 79 Table 8-10: Summary of Impact Assessment – Reclamation of Land ...... 81 Table 8-11: Summary of Impact Assessment – Barrier Effect ...... 83 Table 8-12: Summary of Impact Assessment – Local Economy ...... 85 Table 8-13: Summary of Impact Assessment ...... 88

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Table 8-14: Summary of Impact Assessment – Water Borne Disease ...... 90 Table 8-15: Summary of Impact Assessment – Improved Sanitation Conditions ...... 93 Table 8-16: Summary of Impact Assessment – Graves and Cultural Resources ...... 96 Table 8-17: Summary of Impact Assessment – Spread of HIV/AIDS and other STD’s ...... 99

1 INTRODUCTION

This Social Impact Assessment (SIA) was done as part of the environmental impact assessment and technical investigations for the proposed Flood Mitigation Measures for the Oshakati area.

The social impact assessment is divided into three main sections:

 Compilation of a socio-economic profile of the Oshana Region, in which the project area is located. The profile provides a setting against which impacts can be evaluated and better understood within the local and regional context.

 Identification of the social impacts that were obtained from the public consultation process and through the literature review done on international ESIA flood mitigation projects. Nineteen potential issues were identified. Of these, four issues were found to be invalid and highly unlikely to occur.

 Detailed assessment of the key social impacts of which 10 social impacts were found to be negative and highly probable, and the remaining 6 impacts were found to be of positive nature and likely to occur. Mitigation or enhancement measures are also proposed for each social impact derived from the assessment.

1.1 BACKGROUND

Since independence in 1991, Oshakati grew from a relative small and poorly developed town into a large urban settlement with modern buildings and services. The town is situated within the Cuvelai Delta which is characterised by shallow drainage channels called Oshanas with pockets or islands of higher lying land in between. The continued growth of the town meant that the pressure for suitable land in the town increased to a point where many people settled in lower lying areas on the edges of the higher lying land portions and sometimes even within the Oshanas. Since 2008, the Cuvelai delta experienced heavy rain and flooding which originates in the highlands of Angola and flows through the Cuvelai to the Etosha Pan. This led to substantial flooding of houses, homesteads and fields in Oshakati and its surrounds as well as throughout the Cuvelai delta.

In 2007, the Buro of Architecture (BAR), a Belgian based Architect firm, was commissioned to prepare a Master Plan for Oshakati. One of the most significant

2 features of the Concept Master Plan that resulted from this appointment is the mitigation of the flooding which took place annually from 2008 to 2011. These flood mitigation measures mainly consist of the construction of a dike to the north and west of Oshakati, the deepening of the Okatana River System and the construction of an internal stormwater system for the town.

The proposed flood mitigation measures will in all likelihood attenuate the flooding problems in the town and enable land that is currently subjected to flooding to be laid dry and to be used for future urban development.

Being a major infrastructure project, the proposed flood mitigation measures are subject to an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) according to the provisions of the Environmental Management Act, Act 7 of 2007. As a part of the EIA it is also necessary to consider the potential positive and negative impacts that the proposed interventions may have on the people of Oshakati and its surrounds.

2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION

2.1 Rationale

The Oshakati-Ongwediva-Ondangwa area is regarded as one of the most important commercial, industrial and administrative nodes in Namibia. The recent floods affected the lives of thousands of people residing in low lying areas. The urban area of Oshakati where a high density of people reside, was heavily influenced with access to schools, clinics and businesses affected and many households flooded to a point where the Government of Namibia and the Oshakati Town Council had to provide relief to the flood victims. According to the Oshakati Town Council, the flooding led to the displacement of 984 households in 2008, 708 in 2009, 377 in 2010, 813 in 2011 and 155 by February 2012. (Shilunga 2012).

Besides the direct effect the flooding has on residential areas, it also has a very negative influence on business at the town. Many businesses have to close during the flood period resulting in loss of income for both business owners and their employees. The floods also cause great damage to municipal infrastructure such as water supply, sanitation systems, roads and bridges.

In order to find a permanent solution to the flooding problem in Oshakati, the Ministry of Regional and Local Government, Housing and Rural Development (MRLGHRD), in 2008, appointed the Buro of Architecture (BAR), a Belgium based consultant to compile a long term concept master plan for the town.

Besides various other proposals, the Concept Master Plan had two key components aimed at preventing future flooding of the town. Firstly, it is proposed that a dike be constructed from the Ongwediva high ground in a westward direction north of the current Town of Oshakati, turning south on the western side of the town.

This dike will be fitted with sluice gates to let some water into Oshakati but enable water flow to be closed as soon as the water levels inside the town reach a certain level. The second component consists of the deepening and lining of the Okatana Channel.

A third component has since been added to this, namely the development of an internal stormwater system. It was realised that due to the flat topography, even if

4 the Cuvelai flow is kept out of town, local rainfall and runoff will still cause substantial flooding unless a stormwater system is installed.

2.2 The Proposed Dike

In essence, a dike is an earth wall, much like a dam wall which is designed to keep water in or out of a specific area. The proposed dike for Oshakati will be approximately 26km long and 44m wide. The crown height of the dike will be between 2.2-2.5 m, relative to the existing oshana bed level. This level corresponds to the maximum water level of the design flood (return period of 100 year). The 100 year flood level has been determined using a hydrological and hydraulic model which has been developed with the support of the Department of Water Affairs and the EIA Team1.

A free board of 0.5m has been allowed for, considering the effect of wind waves and as extra safety. At three locations the dike height will correspond to the maximum water level of the design flood, thus not taking into account this free board. At these locations the dike will be protected to prevent erosion even when dike overtopping occurs.

The initial dike height will be higher to take into account future settlement of construction material. The southern extension of the dike is necessary to avoid backwater flowing into the town from the south.

The dikes will have a slope protection such as grouted stone pitching at the water side to avoid erosion, the details of which will be designed according to the soil characteristics. At the land side a cemented gravel slope protection is foreseen. A drainage system is planned that will discharge ground water from the dike when the water level at the outside drops faster than the ground water level within the dike. The dike slopes will be flat enough so that animals can cross them and to avoid people not to fall in the water by accident.

All natural vegetation including large trees will be cleared from the footprint area of the dike to ensure a good foundation.

On top of the dike a dual carriage way (60m road reserve) will be constructed between the road to Endola (D3610) and the road to Okahao (C41) in order to divert

1 A separate document is available with further details of the hydraulic and hydrological models.

5 traffic around the town. On the other parts of the dike a service road in gravel is foreseen.

The ring road will have a limited access only at the intersections with the trunk roads entering Oshakati. These intersections will be designed as roundabouts with a large radius to avoid the need for and maintenance of robot controlled intersections. The ring road is being considered in conjunction with the Roads Authority.

Provisions will have to be taken to prevent pedestrians and cyclists to use and cross the ring road. Therefore an acceptable alternative routing for these road users is essential.

Due to the construction of the dike around Oshakati, a part of the flow from the northern Oshanas has to be diverted around the town. This diverted flow will be directed west. Some obstacles prevent water from flowing fluently downstream. For this, three so-called ‘Oshana Connections’ (OCs) have to be excavated through the ridges currently separating the Oshanas.

Figure 2-1: Typical dike section with dual carriageway

It is proposed that a road would eventually be built on top of the dike and in some places; it could even accommodate a railway line. In addition to the dike, it is also proposed that a 300m wide channel be made to the north and west of the dike. This channel will be deepened to allow water to flow in a westward direction.

To be able to control the flow of water into the town, sluice gates will be installed. These will be used to regulate the flow of water into the town. In times of high floods,

6 these sluices will be closed (manually operated) to prevent too much water from entering the Okatana River system where it goes through town. An operating manual with alarm levels will be provided to the Town Council at the end of the works to serve as a guideline when to open and close the sluices.

Figure 2-2: Sluice Gates

Since the widening of the Oshana Connections intersect with existing roads, new and wider bridges will be constructed. Both sluices and bridges are designed using the same type of precast concrete culvert modules, M1 and M2. M1 is 3 m wide and 1.2 m high, while M2 is 3 m wide and 1.8 m high.

2.3 Proposed Changes to the Okatana River

The Okatana River will be retained, but modified to act as a focal point and water feature during wet times of the year. Low flows will be allowed to enter the river, but high flows will be diverted through the use of the sluice gates. The system is ephemeral, thus it will not flow all the time. During the rainy season, fresh water would normally enter the system and then dry up again through the course of the dry season, only to be filled again during the rainy season. The discharge and the water level in the inner channels are controlled by manually operable sluices.

Their current design has a width of 60 m for the upper channel, and 40 m for the two lower channels.

The initial idea was to have a wide water feature that runs through Oshakati which will enable water sport activities and other landscaping features such as a waterfront. However, this idea requires further consideration to costs and other anticipated problems such as pollution, standing water creating mosquito breeding grounds and keeping the system full of water year round.

The current plan is to deepen and line the edges of the Okatana River as it winds through Oshakati. The edges will be lined with concrete and the river system will act as the main stormwater collector for rainwater inside the dike area. The deepening will need to be to a level where it can act as the main stormwater collector for the internal stormwater drainage system. In order to ensure adequate flow, the deepening will have to continue for a distance of about 10km to the south of Oshakati.

Deepening of the Okatana River System will also require the removal and re- installation of municipal utility services that cross the river such as main water lines, main sewer lines, roads and bridges and electricity transmission and distribution lines. For the NamWater Canal, a siphon will need to be built underneath the river to ensure continued water supply.

2.4 Internal Stormwater

In order to address stormwater generated through rainfall inside the town, a conceptual stormwater design is in the process of being completed. The conceptual design will take both the current developed area of Oshakati as well as the area covered by the Concept Master Plan into account. Three drainage levels will be used namely rivers (which is the Okatana River system discussed above), major stormwater channels which will take stormwater from the minor drains into the river system and minor drains which collect stormwater from within the residential areas and streets and feed it into the major drainage channels.

In order to ensure adequate fall from the residential and business areas on the edges of town, the depth of the Okatana River system design will also be informed by the needs of the internal stormwater system.

2.5 Project Scheduling

The study commenced during February 2012 and is expected to be completed by mid June 2012. The study will involve extensive public participation and it is envisaged that the public meetings will take place during March 2012, followed by further community meetings with those likely to be affected.

3 METHODOLOGY AND WORK PLAN

The aims of the study are to:

 Implement a robust Public Consultation and Disclosure Plan (PCDP) for the period of the environmental assessment, by ensuring that all stakeholders understand the implications of the project and are capacitated to make informed contributions.

 Develop a thorough current and future "Without Project" baseline so that ecological and social factors are fully integrated into the design of the Project.

 Work closely with the Client, the engineering and planning teams, contributing to the appraisal of alternatives and decisions on design and mitigation measures, so that measures can be integrated into the Project proposals of the earliest stage.

 Provide strategic solutions that are sustainable, relevant locally and that are feasible and affordable for ecological and social management and monitoring during the different phases of project development, including guidance on management plans for environmental protection, resettlement and land acquisition, and capacity building in the local authority.

An overview of the work plan is provided in Figure 3 overleaf.

Phase l: Scoping

 Hold inception meeting to confirm TOR

Broad based public  Compile stakeholder database consultation with  Compile Public Consultation and Disclosure Plan and authorities, scientists, present to authorities for comment NGOs, etc.  Identify information sources

 Gather all project info

 Gather all info on the environment

 Conduct a legal review of all relevant legislation, bylaws, policies, plans, regulations, international treaties, etc.

 Map the exact areas of inundation, households to be affected, land affected, based on hydrological models acquired from the Client

 Design a sample frame of households to be surveyed during the socio-economic assessment in Phase 2  Prepare Background Information Document On- going communication with  Arrange and hold stakeholder meetings

registered stakeholders  Arrange and hold public meetings

about progress  Prepare meeting proceedings

 Arrange and hold specialist workshop  Compile Scoping Report (SR), including Terms of Reference for Phase 2

 Circulate SR to client and stakeholders for comments  Incorporate comments

Submit Final SR

On-going communication with registered stakeholders about Phase 2: Full Investigation progress  Conduct specialist fieldwork  Compile specialist reports Public feedback  Review of specialist reports  Specialist workshop to report on findings

 Compile Draft Report

 Incorporate Client comments

 Present findings to the public

Incorporate public comments

Figure 3-1: Work plan for the Environmental Assessment Submit Final documents

3.1 Methodology and Work Plan for the Social Impact Assessment

To determine the potential social impact of the proposed flood mitigation measures, the sociologist attended all the public meetings during the scoping phase. During these meetings all the issues that worry participants at the meetings as well as those issues they regarded as positive were recorded. In addition, a literature study was done to identify potential issues that did not emerge during the public participation events. All the issues identified were then included in the key issues list. The issues were then evaluated and the valid issues were taken through into the specialist study and assessment phases of the social impact assessment.

This phase was followed with the data collection phase during which the position of the dike was mapped relative to the existing households in the area of influence of the dike. In addition, the hydrological study provided information on the flood scenarios with and without the dike system based on the 2011 floods. It helped to determine the backwater effect the dike system may have when a flood similar to the 2011 flood would occur with the dike in place. The without dike scenario is represented by the effects of the actual 2011 floods.

This information enabled the team to identify all the households that are likely to be affected by the construction of the dike and the channel next to it as well as those households that may be affected by the backwater effect of the dike under a 2011 flood scenario.

Having identified the affected households, they were classified in terms of the various effects the dike system and associated works may have on them. Three separate groups were identified as follows:

 Those households that are in the way of the construction works including the dike and the channel and who will need to be relocated to make way for the works. A total of 60 households are affected in this way.

 Those households that were flooded in 2011 and will be flooded again if a similar flood occurs. The difference between the with-dike and without-dike scenarios is that, as a result of the backwater effect, the flooding will be more severe (deeper) than it would be without the dike. Some 54 households will be affected in this manner.

 Those households that was not flooded during the 2011 flood, but who would now be flooded as a result of the backwater effect if the same flood as in 2011 would occur. It is anticipated that 146 households will be affected in this way.

The map indicating the affected households in the three groups as listed above is attached overleaf.

Map 1: Three categories of homesteads/households affected by the proposed dike and resulting backwater effects.

Following the identification of the affected households, a socio-economic survey of a sample of households from all three groups was done during the period 7 to 15 June 2011. A total of 99 households out of a population of 242 (40%) were surveyed while asset inventories were done for the 60 households that will need to be relocated as a result of the proposed project. Before commencing with the fieldwork, meetings were held with the Oshakati Town Council and the Oshana Regional Council during which the identified impacts were presented, the households that were likely to be affected shown and the councillors requested to inform the inhabitants of the area about the survey. Notifications were done by the responsible councillors via personal communication and over the Oshiwambo Radio service of the NBC. This was effective and households were aware of the survey by the time the team made contact with them. Only one household head refused to allow the team to do an asset inventory of his house while a few households could not be reached over the period of the survey after numerous call backs. This was mostly due to people residing in other parts of the country and not being in the area during the period of the survey.

This was followed by the data entry and analysis phase during which the data was entered into a statistical programme and analysed to provide an accurate understanding of the socio-economic conditions prevailing amongst the three affected groups. Thereafter the socio-economic profiles were compiled and the assessment of the socio-economic impact was done.

4 LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

Article 95 of the Namibian Constitution states that the Principles of State Policy is to promote the welfare of the people which requires, inter alia, the “maintenance of ecosystems, essential ecological processes and biological diversity of Namibia”. (GRN 1998, 46) The Environmental Management Act (No.7 of 2007) and Regulations promulgated in 2012, give effect to these principles through guiding and regulating the environmental assessment process.

The Act states that the environment is a “complex of natural and anthropogenic factors” (GRN 2007a, 4) and refers to both the natural and human environments. The human environment is defined as “the landscape and natural, cultural, historical, aesthetic, economic and social heritage and values.” (GRN 2007a, 5) A principal requirement of the Act is that community involvement and the participation of all stakeholders and interested and affected parties (IA&Ps) must be promoted and facilitated throughout the environmental assessment process.

The Namibian Environmental Management Act, 2007 (Act 7 of 2007) under the principles of environmental management, Clause 3(2) states the following:

 Renewable resources must be used on a sustainable basis for the benefit of present and future generations;

 community involvement in natural resources management and the sharing of benefits arising from the use of the resources, must be promoted and facilitated;

 the participation of all interested and affected parties must be promoted and decisions must take into account the interest, needs and values of interested and affected parties;

 equitable access to environmental resources must be promoted and the functional integrity of ecological systems must be taken into account to ensure the sustainability of the systems and to prevent harmful effects.

Communal land in Namibia vests in the state. However, according to the Communal Land Reform Act (Act 5 of 2002) the primary power to allocate or cancel any customary land right in respect of any portion of land in the communal area of a traditional community vests in the chief of that traditional community or where the

Chief so determines, in the Traditional Authority of that traditional community. Also, in terms of grazing rights, the commonage in the communal area of a traditional community is available for use by the lawful residents of such area for the grazing of their livestock, subject to the control of livestock types and numbers. However, in accordance with Section 16(1)(c) the President has the right to withdraw and reserve any portion of the commonage for any purpose in the public interest. However, according to Section 16(2), land may not be withdrawn from any communal land area under Subsection (1)(c) unless all rights held by persons under this Act in respect of such land or any portion thereof have first been acquired by the State and just compensation for the acquisition of such rights is paid to the persons concerned.

Resettlement is viewed in terms of commercial land reform and restitution in Namibian legislation. The main objective of the 2001 Resettlement Policy is to “redress imbalances of the past”. There is therefore a legislative gap on the issue of project-induced resettlement or relocation. The right to “reside and settle in any part of Namibia” is nonetheless enshrined in Article 21(1)(h) of the Namibian Constitution as a fundamental freedom, unless a reasonable restriction of such rights is necessary in the national interest according to Article 21(2). Expropriation must be effected in accordance with Sections 15 to 18 of the Expropriation Ordinance 13 of 1978.

The 2008 Compensation Policy and Guidelines for Communal Land deals with the social issue of compensation for loss of assets and / or land in communal areas needed for public sector development projects. According to this policy, “The Fundamental principle of compensation is to put the claimant in as near as possible to the same position as he or she was before acquisition or displacement.” (RoN 2008a, 1)

The National Heritage Act 27 of 2004 prohibits the removal, damage, alteration or excavation of heritage sites or remains. The Act also sets out the requirements for impact assessment and requires that any person who discovers an archaeological site must notify the National Heritage Council.

5 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE

5.1 The Region and Sub Region

The following section provides a socio-economic baseline of the region and sub regions comprising the project-affected area to identify significant trends within the constituencies in comparison to the Region and Namibia. The purpose is to provide a setting against which to evaluate the potential impacts that were identified. A more detailed profile is then provided for the specific households that are likely to be affected. Thereafter, the key potential impacts are identified and assessed to determine the social impacts of the proposed flood mitigation project.

The project area is located in the Oshana Region, one of the North-Central Regions of Namibia. The constituencies mainly affected by the project are Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva, as shown in the below figure.

Figure 5-1: Locality Map of the Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies

5.1.1 Settlement Pattern The Oshana Region is the smallest of Namibia’s thirteen regions in terms of land area (8653km²). It is also the second most densely populated region (20.3 persons per km²), second only to the neighbouring Ohangwena Region (22.9 persons per km²). Population density had increased from 18.7 in 2001 to 20.3 persons per km² in 2011.

The southern part of the Oshana Region largely forms part of the Etosha National Park where population density is low with less than 5 persons per km². Towards the northern part of the Region, population densities increase to between 10-25 persons per km². Population concentration occurs around the urban centres of Oshakati, Ongwediva and Ondangwa in densities higher than 300 persons per km², and alongside major transport corridors, where higher densities are visible as depicted in the density map below.

Figure 5-2: Population density map of Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva, 2011

The populations of the towns of Oshakati (35 600), Ongwediva (19 300) and Ondangwa (21 100) seen in isolation are smaller than other towns such as Rundu (61 900) or a municipality such as Walvis Bay (61 300). (GRN 2012) The towns combined, however, comprise a total population of 71 600 people, making the Oshakati- Ongwediva-Ondangwa urban area the second most populated urban area of Namibia, second only to the City of Windhoek (322 500 people). The Oshakati- Ongwediva-Ondangwa area is also regarded as one of the main commercial, industrial and administrative nodes of Namibia.

In 2001, 77% or 119 438 of the 155 874 people usually residing in the Oshana Region was born there. In-migration primarily occurred from the Ohangwena and Omusati Regions, respectively comprising 7% and 6% of the Region’s population. Out- migration primarily occurred towards the Khomas and Oshikoto Regions, respectively comprising about 7% and 4% of the 159 017 people born in the Oshana Region. The percentage of the rural population also decreased from 74% to 69% and the urban population increased from 26% to 31% from 1991 to 2001. Rural to urban migration therefore appears to occur within Oshana Region towards the urban centres and outwards to other more urbanised regions.

5.1.2 Demographic Profile Despite the total area of the Region having increased from 5180km² to 8653km² since 1991, the Oshana Region population as a percentage of the total Namibian population decreased progressively from 9.6% in 1991, 8.8% in 2001 to 8.3% in 2011. (GRN 2012). The Oshana Region’s population grew at a rate of 1.8% per annum for the period 1991-2001. There were 161 916 people in the Oshana Region in 2001, which increased to 174 900 people by 2011. (GRN 2003a) (GRN 2012) The increase of 12 984 people represents a growth rate of 0.8% per annum for the period 2001-2011, which is a significantly lower rate than the previous census period. Based on this growth rate, 190 000 people are projected to be in the Oshana Region by 2021 as shown in the following figure.

Oshana Region 2001-2021: Population Growth Projection

240000

220000

200000

180000

160000 No of People of No 140000

120000

100000 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Figure 5-3: Population growth projection for the Oshana Region for the period 2001-2021

Adapted from (GRN 2003a) (GRN 2012)

Figure 7 shows the population projections for the constituencies up to the year 2021 based on the growth rates for the period 2001-2011 presented in Table 1 hereunder. By 2021, the populations of Ongwediva and Oshakati East are expected to have increased to 42 500 and 30 000 people respectively, based on growth rates of 2.4% and 1%. The Oshakati West population however shows marginal growth (0.2%), whereas the population of Okatana is declining (-0.5%).

Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies 2001-2021: Population Growth Projections

55000 50000 45000 40000

Okatana 35000 Oshakati East 30000 25000 Oshakati West 20000

No ofPeople No Ongwediva 15000 10000 5000 0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Figure 5-4: Population growth projections for Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies for the period 2001-2021

Adapted from (GRN 2003b) (GRN 2012)

Table 5-1: Total populations for Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies for 2001 and 2011 projected up to 2021 Constituency 2001 2011 2021 % Growth Population Population Population (2001-2011) Projection

Okatana 15,352 14,700 14,000 -0.5

Oshakati East 24,269 26,700 30,000 1

Oshakati West 19,862 20,200 20,500 0.2

Ongwediva 26,700 33,700 42,500 2.4

Adapted from (GRN 2003b) (GRN 2012)

The population age distribution of the Oshana Region, as depicted in Table 2 below, demonstrates that the under 15 year age group decreased from 42% in 1991 to 40% in 2001. The working age group (15 to 59 years) of the Region however increased from 51% in 1991 to 53% in 2001, with no change to the above 60 years age group at 7%. The sex ratio shows a marginal decrease from 84 males per 100 females in both

1991 and 2001, to 83 males per 100 females in 2011. This is much lower than the national sex ratio of 94 males per 100 females.

In 2001, the under 15 year age group of the Okatana constituency was 43%, which is comparatively higher than Oshakati East (34%) and West (32%), Ongwediva (40%), and as well as the Region (40%). Oshakati East (59%) and West (61%) have a larger proportion of their population in the working age group than Ongwediva (53%) and the Region (53%), although Okatana (47%) has a smaller proportion. Okatana (9%) has a larger above 60 year age group compared to the Region (7%). Oshakati East (5%) and West (4%) and Ongwediva (6%) have a smaller proportion.

The number of female headed households is more or less similar for both the Region and the constituencies, and substantially more than the national percentage of 45%. The mean household sizes of both the Region and the constituencies all decreased from 2001 to 2011. Except for Okatana (5.7), which has larger household sizes than both the Region (4.6) and Namibia (5.2) in comparison, Oshakati East (3.8) and West (3.8) and Ongwediva (4.8), all have smaller household sizes. This point to out- migration of young males of the Region.

Table 5-2: Oshana Region, and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and

Ongwediva constituencies’ population age distribution, 2001

Indicator

Region

Oshana Oshana

Okatana Okatana

Ongwediva Ongwediva

constituency constituency constituency constituency

Oshakati East East Oshakati Oshakati West West Oshakati

1991 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 (%) Under 15 42 40 - 43 - 34 - 32 - 40 - years (%) 15 – 59 51 53 - 47 - 59 - 61 - 53 - years (%) 60+ 7 7 - 9 - 5 - 4 - 6 - years Males / 100 84 84 83 81 86 87 81 82 80 78 81 females Mean Household 5.7 5.4 4.6 6.3 5.7 4.7 3.8 4.6 3.8 5.3 4.8 sizes (%) Female Headed 47 54 - 56 - 52 - 52 - 54 - Households

(GRN 1994) (GRN 2003b) (GRN 2012)

The population pyramids of the Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies are characteristic of rural areas with a larger proportion of the population in the younger age group. There are distinctly more women than men in the 20-30 year age groups. This is further indicative of young men of working age leaving the constituencies in search of employment opportunities in urban areas.

Okatana constituency 2001: Population by age and sex. >95 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 %female 35-39 30-34

Age Categories Age %male 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent Oshakati East constituency 2001: Population by age and sex. >95 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 %female 35-39 30-34

Age Categories Age %male 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 Percent

Figure 5-5: Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituency population by age and sex, 2001

Oshakati West constituency 2001: Population by age and sex. >95 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79

70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 %female 35-39 30-34

Age Categories Age %male 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 Percent

Ongwediva constituency 2001: Population by age and sex.

>95 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 %female 50-54 45-49 %male 40-44 35-39 30-34 Age Categories Age 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent

Adapted from (GRN 2003b)

5.1.3 Educational Profile From 1991 to 2001, the literacy rates for people older than 15 years in the Oshana Region increased from 86% to 91%, and the percentage of the population that never attended school decreased from 17% to 7%. Except for the Okatana (89%) constituency, the Ongwediva (92%), Oshakati East (92%) and especially Oshakati West (94%) constituencies have higher literacy rates than the Region. However, people who had never attended school for the Okatana (11%), Oshakati East (9%) and West (8%) and Ongwediva (8%) constituencies were all higher than the Region. (GRN 2003b)

The following table indicates that the percentage of boys and girls attending school were similar for both the Region and three of the constituencies in 2001. The Okatana constituency though had a higher percentage of boys (94%) and girls (93%) attending school than the Region. Overall, school attendance for boys and girls, both in the Region and constituencies, are considerably higher than the national average, which is 80% and 84% respectively.

Table 5-3: Percentage school attendance of children aged 6-15 for the Oshana Region, and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies, 2001

Oshana Okatana Oshakati East Oshakati West Ongwediva Region constituency constituency constituency constituency Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys

92 90 94 93 91 89 91 91 92 90

(GRN 2003b)

According to the latest EMIS Education Statistics (2011), there are 21 secondary schools, 51 combined schools and 62 primary schools in the Oshana Region. The following figure demonstrates a decrease in the number of learners in the Region, from 51 924 learners in 2005 to 51 326 learners in 2011. The number of schools also showed a decreased during 2008-2009 corresponding to the flood period, but again increased in 2010. During 2005-2011, eight additional schools were constructed, an increase of about 11%. The number of children per school decreased from about 409 learners per school to about 380 learners per school. This is still higher than the national average of 349 learners per school.

Oshana Region 2005-2011: Oshana Region 2005-2011: Number of learners Number of schools 150 59000 145 57000 140 55000 135 53000 130 No of 51000 125 No Schools Learners 49000 120 47000 115

45000 110

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Figure 5-6: Number of schools in relation to number of learners in the Oshana Region, 2005-2011

Adapted from (GRN 2005-2011)

Figure 10 shows the ratio between the number of learners and teachers for Namibia as well as the Oshana Region. This provides an indication of the quality of education. The ratio for the Region has decreased from about 30 learners per teacher in 2005 to about 25 learners per teacher in 2011. The ratio of the Region decreased parallel to

26 the national ratio, but has fallen below the national ratio in 2009 for the first time. Should this be the trend, more time would become available on teaching each learner individually. The quality of teachers did also improve during this period. Primary school teachers qualified to teach increased from 56% in 2005 to 78% in 2011. In 2005, 82% of secondary school teachers were qualified to teach, which then further increased to 94% in 2011. This follows the national trend.

Namibia and Oshana Region 2005-2011: Learner : teacher ratio 50

20 National

Percentage Oshana 10

2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011

Figure 5-7: Learner / teacher ratio of Namibia and Oshana Region, 2005-2011

Adapted from (GRN 2005-2011)

From the overall JSC examination pass rate, it is evident that educational Namibia and Oshana Region 2005-2011: Junior Secondary Certificate achievement in the Oshana Region has almost always been marginally lower than Examination pass rate the national80 rate. Since 2005, the pass rate of 46% increased to a high of 51% in 2008, temporarily70 surpassing the national rate. Since 2009 though, pass rates started to

decrease 60, falling below the national pass rate once more, to about 50% in 2011. 50 National 40 Oshana

30 Percentage 20 10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 5-8: Junior Secondary examination pass rate of the Oshana region, 2005-2011

Adapted from (GRN 2005-2011)

5.1.4 Health Profile There is a State Hospital located in Oshakati, with five health centres and eleven clinics found throughout the Region. As shown in the following table, a relative high proportion of the Oshana Region’s population (94%) live within 10 kilometer of a health facility which is much better than the national average (80%). The allocation of staff is two times better than the national average. On average there are 3 529 people per registered doctor and 550 people per registered nurse. Public hospital beds are much better provided in the Region with one bed available for every 180 people in comparison to the national average of 271 people. The mortality rate for under 5 year olds is also lower (43 deaths per 1000) than the national average (52 deaths per 1000).

Table 5-4: Health indicators for Namibia and Oshana Region, 2000

Indicator National Oshana

% People within 10 km of health facility 80% 94% Number of people per public doctor 7545 3 529 Number of people per public registered nurse 947 550

Number of people per public hospital beds 271 180 % HIV Prevalence amongst pregnant women 22.3% 28% Under 5 mortality per 1000 52* 43* % Households with access to safe water 77% 80% % Households with access to adequate sanitation 41% 44%

(GRN 2000) (GRN 2003b)*

According to the 2008 HIV Sentinel Survey Report, the HIV prevalence rate of Oshakati shows a decrease from the highest recorded rate of 34% in 1998 to 22.4% in 2008, which are still amongst the highest prevalence rates in the country.

With respect to health indicators, in 2001, Okatana had 35 infant deaths, Oshakati East and West respectively had 43 and 40 infant deaths, and Ongwediva had 36 infant deaths per 1000 live births. These are lower than the national rate as depicted in Table 4 above and more comparable to the regional rate. There is a much higher infant mortality rate for girls (46) than boys (23) in Okatana. In Oshakati West, it is however much higher for boys (57) than girls (23). The infant mortality rate in Oshakati East for girls (44) and boys (42) is about the same, as well as also for girls (34) and boys (37) in Ongwediva.

In the Oshana Region, the percentage of the population having access to safe water improved considerably, from 57% in 1991 to 94% in 2001, but access to adequate sanitation facilities decreased from 74% in 1991 to 49% in 2001. The percentage of people with access to safe drinking water in the constituencies of Okatana (90%), Oshakati East (96%) and West (96%) and Ongwediva are all higher than the national average of 87%, and compares well to the Region. Access to adequate sanitation facilities in the constituencies, like in the Region, are poor in Oshakati East (30%) and West (31%) and Ongwediva (42%). In comparison, the national average is 54%. Okatana though, is better provided with 75% of the population having access to sanitation facilities.

High fertility rates often result from early teenage pregnancies. The percentage of females in the 15-19 year age category who are pregnant or mothers in the Oshana Region is 9%, which is less than the national average of 19%. This is reflected in the regional and constituency fertility rates. Females of the Oshana Region had on average 5.6 children in 1991, which decreased to 3.8 children in 2001, which is lower than the national average of 4.1. The fertility rates of Okatana (3.7), Oshakati East (3.6) and West (3.5) and Ongwediva (3.5) are lower than the Regional average. During 1991-2001, life expectancy in the Region decreased from 60 to 46 years for males and from 64 to 48 years for females. This is less than the national life expectancy of 48 years for males and 50 years for females. In the constituencies, life expectancy for males and females in 1991 and 2001 were 45 and 62 years for Okatana, 42 and 44 years for Oshakati East, 45 and 43 years for Oshakati West, and 49 and 50 years for Ongwediva respectively.

5.1.5 Livelihood Profile In 1994, the Oshana Region had the sixth lowest mean annual household income in the country (N$10 528). This was less than the national average of N$17 198. (GRN 1996) By 2004, this improved to the point where the Region had risen to become the region with the third highest mean annual household income of N$45 704, third only to the Erongo (N$53 408) and Khomas (N$ 91 028) Regions. This meant household income was higher than the national average of N$43 521. (GRN 2006) By 2009, however, the Oshana Region dropped to fifth position with a mean annual household income of N$65 445, which is again below the national average of N$68 878. (GRN 2011)

The incidence of poverty in the Oshana Region is the third lowest in the country. As depicted in Figure 12, 20% of households in the Region are considered poor and 8% of households severely poor. This is much lower than the national average of 28% poor and 14% severely poor households. The food consumption ratio by percentage of households in the Oshana Region showed improvement. In 2004, 6% of households spent between 80-100% of their income on food, and 25% spent between 60-79% of their income on food. By 2010, this decreased to 3% of households spending between 80-100% of their income on food, and 21% spending between 60-79% of their income on food. This is however still above the national averages of 2% and 20%.

Figure 5-9: Incidence of poverty by region, 2003/2004

(GRN 2008d)

In 2001, the regional unemployment rate was relatively high at 40% of the labour force, having doubled from 21% in 1991, according to Census data. The 2008 Labour Force Survey found that the unemployment rate (strict) showed a marginal decrease to 39% in 2008. On a constituency level, the level of unemployment is comparably lower than the Regional figures with 30% of the population of Okatana, 34% of Oshakati East and 35% of Ongwediva having been unemployed in 2001 (see Table 5

below). The unemployment rate of Oshakati West (40%) was the same as that of the Region.

Table 5-5: Percentage of the Region and constituencies work force that are employed / unemployed, 2001 Year Oshana Okatana Oshakati East Oshakati West Ongwediva

Region constituency constituency constituency constituency

Employed Employed Employed Employed Employed

Unemployed Unemployed Unemployed Unemployed Unemployed

1991 79 21 ------

2001 60 40 70 30 66 34 60 40 65 35

(GRN 2003b)

Figure 13 demonstrates that the unemployment rate and labour force participation rate are much higher amongst females on the national, regional and constituency levels in comparison to that of males. The unemployment rate for males are higher only in the Okatana constituency with 32% of males and 29% of females being unemployed. In Namibia and the Oshana Region respectively, 27% and 37% of males, and in the Oshakati East, Oshakati West and Ongwediva constituencies respectively, 30%, 39% and 32% of males, were unemployed in 2001. In comparison, in Namibia and the Oshana Region, 36% and 44% of females were unemployed. On the constituency level, 39% of females in Oshakati East, 42% of females in Oshakati West and 35% of females in Ongwediva, were unemployed.

During 2001, only about 55% of the national population was economically active. In the Oshana Region, an even lower percentage (51%) of the population participated in the labour force. Except for Okatana (45%), Oshakati East (55%), Oshakati West (61%) and Ongwediva (56%) had a higher labour force participation rate than both the Regional and national rates.

Namibia, Oshana Region, and Namibia, Oshana Region, and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies 2001: Ongwediva constituencies 2001:

Unemployment by sex Labour force participation by sex 50 70 45

40 60

35 % male 50 % male 30 % female 25 40 % female 20 % total 30 % total

Percentage 15 Percentage 20 10 5 10

Oshana

Namibia

Okatana Namibia

Okatana

Ongwediva

Oshakati East Oshakati

Oshakati East Oshakati Oshakati West Oshakati West Oshakati

Figure 5-10: Namibia, Oshana Region and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies’ unemployment rate by sex and labour force participation rates by sex, 2001

Adapted from (GRN 2003b)

Figure 14 overleaf indicates that households in the Oshakati East (46%) and West (41%) and Ongwediva (47%) constituencies mainly rely on wages and salaries to make a living. This is comparable to the national percentage of 41%. Okatana constituency (69%) heavily relies on farming. This is significant since the Okatana constituency approximates the households that will be impacted by the dikes the best. Farming is the second most important source of income in Oshakati East (23%) and Ongwediva (25%). The second most important income source for Oshakati West (26%) however is non-farming business.

Namibia, Oshana Region and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies 2011: Percentage household income distribution Wages and Salaries Namibia Oshana Pension

Okatana Farming Oshakati West Oshakati East Cash Remittance

Ongwediva Business – non- 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Farming Other/ Not Stated

Figure 5-11: Percentage of households by main sources of income for Namibia, Oshana region, and Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva constituencies, 2001

(GRN 2003b, GRN 2003a)

Housing in the Oshana Region in 2001 generally reflected poor conditions. In 2001, 53% of all households in the Oshana Region occupied improvised or traditional houses with only 38% of households having lived in detached or semi-detached houses. In Okatana, only 14% of households resided in detached or semi-detached houses, and 82% in shacks or huts. In Oshakati East and West, respectively 50% and 69% of households resided in detached or semi-detached houses, with respectively 31% and 21% of households living in shacks or huts. In Ongwediva, 48% of households lived in detached or semi-detached houses, and 44% of households in shacks or huts.

The main source of livelihood of rural people in the Oshana Region is subsistence farming based on crop production and cattle rearing. The emphasis is on producing one’s own food with little surplus being left available to sell for profit. The land and natural resources are heavily dependent on for subsistence farming to cultivate crops, rear livestock, and seasonal harvesting of traditional fruits and veld products. Food security is less than in the past because of the overexploitation of the soils as the area is highly overpopulated.

Paradoxically, an essential asset of the rural household is family labour which requires larger families. Family labour though, is diminishing through rural to urban migration, although some remittances are thereby received. Although better accessibility to education facilities had improved, the job requirements are too high and the job opportunities too few.

Small businesses known locally as cuca shops and shebeens are highlighted as an important household livelihood strategy for rural people. (GRN 2007b, 5) These shops are located in and around all villages and concentrated alongside major transport routes.

5.2 Socio-Economic Profile of the Affected Households

5.2.1 Introduction The households most affected by the dike were classified into three distinct categories and a socio-economic survey was done which included all three of these categories. Map 1 provides an indication of the locality of these households relative to the position of the dike and under a 2011 flood scenario with the dike in place. The households marked in red (impact zone one) are the ones which will need to be relocated as a result of the dike and channel. The households marked in green (impact zone two) are the ones which were flooded in the 2011 floods and which would experience worse flooding under the same flood scenario with the dike in place. The households marked in blue (impact zone three) were not flooded during the 2011 floods, but will be flooded if the same flood occurs with the dike in place.

The three groups were analysed separately where appropriate to see if there are any significant differences between them.

5.2.2 Demographic Profile Impact zone one households are generally located closer to the urban areas of Oshakati and Ongwediva while zone two households are slightly further away. Impact zone three households are more rural than the other two zones. The table below shows the mean household size in the three zones and clearly shows that household sizes increase with the distance from the main urban centres. This is in line with national trends where households in the rural areas are generally larger than those in the urban areas.

Table 5-6: Mean Household size by Impact Zone

Impact Zone Mean Household Size Minimum Maximum 1 5.87 1 14 2 6.3 1 12 3 7.25 1 17

In terms of the sex distribution, a definitive pattern does not emerge. The figure overleaf shows the sex distribution by impact zone. Impact zones one and three have more females than males while impact zone 2 has fewer males than females. However, these differences do not seem to be significant or at the least no logical explanation seems to exist at this stage.

Impact Zone 1 Impact Zone 2 Impact Zone 3 Female Female Female Male Male Male

46% 47% 54% 52% 48% 53%

Figure 5-12: Sex distribution by Impact Zone

However, when the age distribution is considered, impact zone two is also different from the other two.

Impact Zone 1 Impact Zone 2

25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

PERCENTAGE PERCENTAGE

>74

0 to 4 to 0 9 to 5

10 to 14 to 10 19 to 15 24 to 20 29 to 25 34 to 30 39 to 35 44 to 40 49 to 45 54 to 50 59 to 55 64 to 60 69 to 65 74 to 70

10 to 14 to 10 19 to 15 24 to 20 29 to 25 34 to 30 39 to 35 44 to 40 49 to 45 54 to 50 59 to 55 64 to 60 69 to 65 74 to 70 AGE CATEGORIES AGE CATEGORIES

Impact Zone 3

5 PERCENTAGE

>74

0 to 4 to 0 9 to 5

10 to 14 to 10 19 to 15 24 to 20 29 to 25 34 to 30 39 to 35 44 to 40 49 to 45 54 to 50 59 to 55 64 to 60 69 to 65 74 to 70

AGE CATEGORIES

Figure 5-13: Age distribution by Impact Zone

As can be seen above, there is a much larger percentage (20%) of household members in the 15 – 19 years old category for zone two than is the case in the other two impact zones (15% in zone 1 and 12% in zone 3). There are also more old people than in the other two zones.

5.2.3 Educational Profile The trend in terms of educational attainment is very similar for all three impact zones with the majority of people having attained grades 6 to 10. Very few household members have attained higher education beyond grade 12. Only 1 – 2% of household members indicated that they have a university degree while just about 6% of householders in impact zone one and 2.5% in impact zone three indicated that they attained grade 12 plus a diploma. On the other hand, about 3.5% of adults in impact zones one and three have never attended school as opposed to no-one in impact zone two.

45 40

35 30 25 20 15

Percentage 10 Zone 1 5 Zone 2 0 Zone 3

Educational Attainment

Figure 5-14: Educational Attainment by Impact Zone.

In terms of current school attendance for children under the age of 16 years, the figure below indicates that in all three impact zones there are only very few children who are above the age of six years and have never attended school. Similarly, there are also very few children who have left school already.

The differences between the areas in terms of the percentage of pre-school aged children and those currently attending school is simply a function of the age

36 distribution in the areas where there are more pre-school aged children in zone one (48%) , less in zone two (43%) and even less in zone three (32%).

There were none of these children in any zone that has never been to school and only two children that left school already.

40 Zone 1 Zone 2

Percentage 20 Zone 3 0

Never been to Currently school Left school Pre school attending already school aged child School Attendance

Figure 5-15: School Attendance for children younger than 16 years of age

60 40 20

0 Zone 1 Percentage Zone 2 Zone 3 Left school already Currently attending Never been school to school

School Attendance

Figure 5-16: School attendance of people older than 15 years of age

In terms of school attendance patterns for people older than 15 years of age, the three areas are similar with 6% of people in impact zones one and three having never attended school against 3% in zone two. Zone two also has a higher

37 percentage of the over 15 age group currently attending school with 28% against 22% in zone two and 18% in zone three.

It can therefore be concluded that the provision of education is fairly good in all three areas with an enrolment rate of just about 100% in all three areas.

5.2.4 Permanency of Residence The length of stay at the place of enumeration for the survey provides an indication of how settled people are and tells something about the history people have with their place of residence. Obviously, if a household has stayed at a specific place or homestead for a very long time, it will be more difficult and unsettling to move than would be the case if they moved to their current place of residence recently. The figure below provides a comparison between the three areas.

90 80 70

60 50 40 Zone 1

Percentage 30 Zone 2 20 Zone 3 10 0 < 1 Year 1-2 Years 2-4 Years 4-6 Years 6-8 Years 8-10 >10 Years Born here Years Duration of Stay

Figure 5-17: Duration of stay at current place of residence

The figure clearly shows that most people in all three areas of impact has been residing there for more than 10 years or was born there. Eighty five percent of people in impact zone one, 88% in impact zone two and 96% of people in impact zone three were either born at their current place of residence or lives there for more than 10 years. In impact zone one an area was found where people are currently settling with a number of new corrugated iron structures being erected or having been erected over the past few years. During the fieldwork, it was found that the headman of the area gave permission to people to settle in this area. However, these settlers are not farmers and have few livestock and no fields. Relocating them

38 to another area would have less of an impact than would be the case for those that have been living in the area for a long time and have livestock, fields and fruit trees from which they make a living.

5.2.5 Employment and Income The actual means of livelihood and levels of income is an important variable in the directly affected areas of this project. People who are dependent on their livestock and fields as main source of livelihood are more vulnerable than those that hold other jobs and get an income from such positions.

Figure 21 below provides an indication of the employment status of households in the three zones. In zones one and three, 23% and 24% of household members respectively, regarded themselves as employed. In impact zone 2, only 10% indicated that they worked as employees. However, while 31% of household members in impact zone one and 32% in impact zone three indicated that they are unemployed yet first time job seekers, only 17% of household members in impact zone two fell in this category. This should be considered against the fact that substantially more members in impact zone two indicated that they are unemployed but worked before, 10% in impact zone two as opposed to 2% in the other two impact zones. On the other hand, 37% of household members older than 15 years in impact zone two indicated that they are students compared to 22% in impact zone one and 20% in impact zone three. More people in impact zones one and two have their own businesses than in impact zone three, which supports the expectations for an area with more rural characteristics.

40 35

30 25 20 15

PERCENTAGE 10 5 Zone 1 0 Zone 2 Zone 3

EMPLOYMENT STATUS

Figure 5-18: Employment Status of all household members older than 15 years

In terms of the actual occupation of household members, Figure 22 shows that the trend in all three impact zones are similar with the exception that a higher percentage of household members in impact zone two are unemployed than in the other two impact zones. Also a smaller percentage of householders have their own businesses. It is however, conspicuous that such a small percentage of households regarded themselves as farmers. Only 1% of households in impact zones one and three indicated that their occupation is a farmer, forester or fisherman while none in impact zone two regarded themselves as farmers.

PERCENTAGE 20 Zone 1 10 Zone 2 0 Zone 3

OCCUPATION

Figure 5-19: Occupation of Household Members older than 15 years by Impact Zone

Perhaps, this has something to do with the actual communal farming activities taking place at the homesteads in the impact zones. The table below provides the mean number of livestock per household by type.

Table 5-7: Mean number of livestock per household by Type

Horses and Impact Zone Cattle Goats Sheep Donkeys 1 0.37 0.78 0 0 2 1.20 0.70 0 0.13 3 0.85 1.13 0.02 0.04

It is clear that the households in all impact zones have very little livestock. With a mean of mostly less than one animal per type per household, it can hardly be called livestock farming. However, considering means hides the true distribution, which is provided in table 8 below.

Table 5-8: Distribution of livestock ownership amongst households

Percentage of households Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 with number of animals cattle goats cattle goats cattle goats 0 96% 93% 94% 94% 92% 92% 1 - 5 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 6-10 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 11-20 1% 2% 2% 3% 1% 5% 21–30 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% >30 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

This provides a better idea of the scale of livestock ownership in the impact zones where more than 90% of all households in all three impact zones do not own any cattle or goats. Of those households that own livestock only 2% in impact zone two and 1% in impact zone three have between 21 and 30 cattle while not a single household was found with more than 30 cattle. Also, there were no households in all three the impact zones with more than 20 goats. This is a clear indication that the majority of people’s livelihoods do not depend on livestock rearing and that very few of them have anything approximating a sustainable herd.

Another indication is provided by the cropping activities of households. 73% of households in impact zone one, 80% in zone two and 95% in zone three indicated that they plant their crop fields on an annual basis. The main types of crops grown are mahango, maize, sorghum, beans and pumpkins/watermelon. This indicates that fields are important and possibly in many cases it provides the household with the food they need to survive in addition to a cash income earned from wages.

People were also asked to provide an indication of the monthly income each of the household members earn per month. These figures were then used to calculate a monthly household income. Table 9 below provides the detail.

Table 5-9: Percentage of households per income category by zone.

Income Category (N$/Month) Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 0 17% 22% 18% 1-500 17% 33% 15% 501-1000 22% 11% 13% 1001-2000 4% 11% 15% 2001-3000 4% 0% 3% 3001-4000 11% 0% 0% 4001-5000 2% 0% 0% 5001-6000 2% 0% 0% >6000 20% 22% 38%

It seems as if about 20% of all households in all three zones do not have any monthly income and it can be assumed that they live off their land only. Another 15% live off pensions from one older person in the household only. In zone two, this percentage is higher which means that 34% of households in zone one, 55% of households in zone two and 33% of households in zone three live on less than N$ 500 per month. On the other side of the coin, 20% of households in zone one, 22% in zone two and 38% in zone three earn more than N$ 6000 per month. It can therefore be concluded that the majority of households in all three zones live on less than N$ 1000 per month but that there is a substantial group (between 20% and 38%) of households that own more than N$ 6000 per month which make them fairly well-off in comparison to the others.

5.3 Key Socio-economic trends and issues of Importance for this Social Impact Assessment

The key socio-economic trends in the Oshana Region that must be considered in this assessment are the following:

 The region is densely populated, to such an extent that suitable higher lying land for crop production and grazing for livestock is becoming scarce.

 Mean household incomes in the region are increasing steadily. However, the rate of growth is lower than the national average.

 The rate of natural population growth is on the decrease with fertility rates declining from 5.6 in 1991 to 3.8 in 2001.

 The population age distribution indicates a typical pyramid for a developing nation with a high percentage of young people if compared to the pyramids of developed societies.

 Based on the food consumption ratio, about 3% of all households in the Region can be regarded as very poor while about 21% can be regarded as poor.

 It is interesting to note that few people regard themselves as farmers, yet about 30% - 40% of households have no cash income and live from their fields.

 More than 90% of all households own no livestock while those that own livestock seldom have a sustainable herd.

 Livelihoods in the area are clearly changing from a high level of dependence on their land to a situation where some members of a household earn a cash income elsewhere and this is then used to sustain the household. Also, pensions play a significant role in ensuring a little cash income to some of the most vulnerable households.

 The vast majority of households that must be resettled as a result of the proposed project have been living at their current place of residence for more than 10years or was born there.

6 IDENTIFICATION OF KEY SOCIAL IMPACTS

While the proposed interventions is likely to have many positive social and economic impacts, it is also necessary to objectively identify and consider potential negative impacts on the population both inside the area that will be protected by the dike as well as to those living outside of the protection of the dike. The purpose of this assessment is not to pose opposition to the proposed interventions, but to objectively identify potential positive and negative impacts, to evaluate these and to develop measures which could mitigate negative impacts and enhance the positive impacts likely to result from the proposed intervention.

6.1 Literature Review

A literature review was done on the BOR Counties Dike rehabilitation project in the Southern Sudan, the high dikes in the Mekong Delta and the flood protection measures in the Lower Incomate River Basin in Mozambique. The key social impacts that were found are as follows:

 Backwater effect – flood depth and backwater flooding causing those that are dependent on livestock and cropping to lose their livelihoods.

 Impacts on economic welfare and food security.

 Impacts on human health related to water borne disease, insects and water quality issues.

 Impacts on infrastructure and economy in flood free zones.

 Impacts on human safety and development in flood free areas.

 Impacts on accessibility of health and education services.

Social issues normally associated with large-scale Namibian projects as identified from previous impact assessments considered to be applicable are as follows:

 Disturbance of dust and noise from construction work.

 Destruction of graves and cultural resources.

 Safety risk to people from construction activities and machinery.

 Spread of HIV/Aids

6.2 Issues Listing

Following a process of public consultation in Windhoek and Oshakati as well as a literature review and based on previous experience, the following sensitivities and potential impacts were identified during the scoping phase of the project.

Table 6-1: List of potential socio-economic impacts associated with this project and selection of validity

Impact Description Comments Valid? Nature

1 Relocation / resettlement The footprint of the dike and the channel and compensation of will require relocation of those households households. and fields which are in the way of the land required for the dike and channel. Residents to the north, west and further downstream (Ompundja) of the dike will require relocation and compensation for the loss of homesteads and fields.

The construction of the stormwater drainage system for Oshakati may also require some land take as a result of the Yes Negative need to route stormwater structures.

Backwater effect could lead to flooding of households previously unaffected. Flooding could increase in the area where the main discharge will again be accommodated in the normal unaltered oshana system. These households will be flooded as a result of the backwater effect and a mitigation regime will need to be put in place for them.

2 Loss of livelihoods, especially Loss of land has the potential to render the poor and vulnerable. the poor and vulnerable even more vulnerable, especially those that have no alternative income and mainly from crop Yes Negative and grazing fields, fruit-bearing trees and natural resources needed for traditional produce.

3 Creation of local The construction of the dike will create a Yes Positive

Impact Description Comments Valid? Nature

employment opportunities. number of temporary employment opportunities. The actual significance of employment creation will depend on the extent of labour based or labour enhanced methods employed in the construction model. This can reduce unemployment and hence poverty.

4 Safety risk to people and The deepened channel north and west of livestock of injury or the dike may have an impact on human drowning. safety since it will be deeper and water velocity will be higher than what people are used to.

There are safety risks for people and animals associated with the deepening of Yes Negative the Okatana channel and borrow pits i.e. people and animals falling into and drowning in the channel.

Borrow pits needed to be excavated for construction material of the dike could also pose a safety threat for people and livestock.

5 Safety risk to people and The movement and operation of large livestock from construction machinery presents a safety risk to local machinery. residents as the construction activities occur near to urban areas. People, and Yes Negative children in particular, would become curious to see these machines in operation which needs to be taken into consideration.

6 Dust and noise disturbance. Adjacent land owners may be disturbed by the noise and dust produced from the Yes Negative haul vehicles, earthmoving equipment and construction activities.

7 Impact of creating a Fear was expressed that other settlements precedent that settlements in the cuvelai delta may also expect experiencing flooding can government to implement similar flood No Negative expect intervention from mitigation measures. Government.

Impact Description Comments Valid? Nature

8 Flood protection of the Improved protection of people’s property Oshakati / Ongwediva urban and lives from flooding. After construction area. of the dike, approximately 1000 households will be flood free and will no longer be displaced annually as a result of the floods.

The construction of the dike prevents the Yes Positive flooding of houses which are currently located on lower-lying land in the town and relieve pressure from the local authority and the Government to look after a large number of displaced households.

9 Reclamation of land for More space available for residential urban development. development close to the centre of Oshakati with resultant cost savings. The construction of the dike will create a basin which will be largely flood free and allow for the integrated and logical urban development of Oshakati and Ongwediva. Where the current development is fairly spread out with only higher lying islands available for urban development, areas that are currently Yes Positive flooded will become available for development with opportunities for a more compact and cost effective urban form. This will bring cost savings in terms of the provision of bulk services, the maintenance of services and the cost of land for various land uses. It is also likely to facilitate cost savings for individual people with reduced mean travelling distances.

10 Barrier effect of dike and The dike will further limit access to channel. Oshakati during the wet season since the channel will be deeper than is currently Yes Negative the case. Access by donkey cart and on foot will need to be taken across the few

Impact Description Comments Valid? Nature

bridges and this will decrease accessibility for people residing outside the dike. Traditional pathways, children walking to school and the movement of livestock will be affected.

The deepened channel will create a barrier through Oshakati which will be difficult to cross when the channel is filled with water during efundja.

11 Capacity of headmen (residing outside Oshakati) in No Negative dealing with complaints and issues.

12 Consider damming the water for consumption by local No Positive residents (lower water prices in the area, water harvesting)

13 Consider the potential of fish No Positive farming if water is dammed.

14 Benefits of project for the The project could lead to the local economy. development of multipurpose infrastructure, investments and improved capacity of local government.

The local economy will benefit greatly Yes Positive from protection against flooding as businesses that had to close during the flood period endured a substantial loss of income for both owners and employees.

15 Increased business, It is possible that the dike and channel recreation and tourism could form an important water feature of opportunities. Oshakati although to a lesser extent as envisioned in the initial Oshakati Concept Master Plan. Some developments related Yes Positive to the dike and channels that could lead to an increase in tourism and business growth includes a waterfront development and landscaping of the channels to develop an esplanade with

Impact Description Comments Valid? Nature

recreational facilities and amenities for the public. Water sport activities would also be possible to some extent during the efundja floods such as fishing or sailing.

16 Breeding ground for water- The deepening of the river may result in borne disease vectors. water standing for longer periods than normal. Since this will be stagnant water it may lead to health threats due to water quality and malaria since it will be an Yes Negative improved mosquito breeding ground. Other health impacts associated with the spreading of diseases include balharzia with the slow flow speed of water.

17 Improved sanitation due to Stagnant localised stormwater is a health the movement of previously risk and this will largely be eliminated by a standing (contaminated) good internal stormwater system. This will water away from Oshakati. reduce sewer seepage into the natural Yes Positive ground and surface water, something which is difficult to manage and maintain under the present flood scenario in the town.

18 Destruction of graves or During the socio-economic survey a cultural sites. grave site was observed that will become flooded as a result of the dike. These graves therefore have to be exhumed which requires consent from the affected communities. Yes Negative There is further the possibility that graves or other cultural sites that are unseen and not recorded could be disturbed or destroyed during construction of the dike or channel or be flooded as a result of the backwater effect.

19 Increase in the spread of Sexual relations between the workforce HIV/Aids and other STDs. and local people are likely to occur. The workforce will work in the area for an Yes Negative extended period of time without their families and earn higher than average

Impact Description Comments Valid? Nature

income. The spread of HIV/Aids and other STDs can therefore spread as a result.

7 IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION / ENHANCEMENT

In this section, the identified valid impacts are considered and assessed and mitigation and enhancement measures suggested. For each, an indication is provided if the impact is associated with the construction phase, the operations phase or both.

The rating methodology used calculates the consequence of an impact as the sum of severity, reversibility, duration and spatial extent. The formula - Consequence (severity + reversibility + duration + spatial scale) x Probability - is then used to calculate the significance of the impact. More than 60 significance points indicate high significance, between 30 and 60 significance points indicate medium significance and less than 30 significance points indicate low significance. To award scores for each impact the following ratings were used.

Table 7-1: Rating methodology

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 5 – Very high 5 – Irreversible 5 – Permanent 5 – 5 – Definite / / don’t know International don’t know 4 – High 4 – Long term 4 – National 4 – High (impact ceases probability after operational life) 3 – Moderate 3 – 3 – Medium 3 – Regional 3 – Medium Recoverable term probability (needs human input) (5 – 15 years) 2 – Low 2 – Short term 2 – Local 2 – Low probability (0 – 5 years) 1 – Minor 1 – Reversible 1 - Immediate 1 – Site only 1 – Improbable (regenerates naturally) 0 - None 0 - None

7.1 Relocation/resettlement and Compensation of Households

Following the socio-economic survey and the asset inventory, it was found that 60 homesteads/houses/structures are in the way of the footprint of the dike and the channel and the associated works related to roads and bridges crossing the dike. The socio-economic profile of these households is presented in the previous section as impact zone 1. Of the 60 affected households, 33 are traditional homesteads with fields, 18 are improvised structures without fields and 9 are modern high-end houses. The key characteristics of these households are that they have very few livestock on average, that more than 90% of households have no livestock, that about 73% plant their crop fields on an annual basis, that only one percent of adults regard themselves as farmers, that about 34% of households have an income of N$ 500 per month or less, that 17% have no cash income, that 20% of households earn more than N$ 6000 per month, that about 21% of household members regard themselves as unemployed but seeking employment, and that 85% of all household members was either born at the current place of residence or have been residing there for more than 10 years.

It seems that the role of agriculture in people’s livelihoods is decreasing if one considers the occupations and the sectors of employment and that the urban areas are drawing young people especially away from the rural areas.

7.1.1 During construction During construction, or actually prior to construction, the project will require that these 60 households be compensated and relocated. This process is provided for in the Compensation Policy Guidelines for Communal Land. Based on the Policy guidelines, compensation for these 60 households will amount to approximately N$ 22 million. The calculations are attached as Appendix B.

7.1.2 During operation By the time the dike system is in operation, the negative impact of relocation will remain and will be more severe for those who are dependent on the land and natural resources for their livelihoods than for those who have external or alternative sources of income.

7.1.3 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact will be negative to the directly affected households.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The severity of the impact is assessed as high as opposed to very high because for some households it will simply mean relocation while for others it will mean a complete disruption of their lives as they knew it for many years. Over time the impact is likely to dissipate and its severity to decrease to moderate.

 Reversibility:

The impact is recoverable through human input through the payment of fair compensation and other measures. During operation, careful management and attention to the most vulnerable households would help to reduce or partially recover the impacts.

 Duration:

The duration of the impact is medium term since the directly affected people are likely to recover from the shock over a period of 5 – 15 years, especially with the payment of fair compensation. During the operation phase the duration will become short term.

 Spatial Extent:

The spatial extent is assessed to be local as opposed to the construction site only because its influence is wider than just the area of construction. It is likely to remain local during the operation phase of the project.

 Probability:

It is definite that the impact will occur.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

The degree of confidence in the assessment is high since each household was visited and it is certain that these households will need to be relocated.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 4 – High 3 – 3 – Medium 2 – local 5 – definite Recoverable term The overall significance of the impact is calculated to be 60 {(4+3+3+2)x5} which is a negative impact of high significance.

 Significance Rating during Operation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 3 – Moderate 3 – 2 – Short term 2 – local 4 – high Recoverable The overall significance of the impact is calculated to be 40 {(3+3+2+2)x4} which is a negative impact of medium significance.

7.1.4 Mitigation / enhancement measures From the socio-economic profile of the directly affected households it is very clear that they cannot be seen as a homogenous group. With the household conditions of each household known to the project proponent, it is recommended that the following mitigation measures be implemented:

 That each household be compensated fully and fairly in line with the Compensation Policy Guidelines for communal areas.  That households who are not dependent on farming nor particularly vulnerable be paid the required compensation and then allowed to move to where it is most convenient for them, provided that it is acceptable to the responsible authorities.

7.1.5 Significance after Mitigation After mitigation and during construction, the severity of the impact will reduce to a low rating, the impact will be largely reversed through fair compensation. However, a residual impact will remain in the form of social relations and productive activities that will need to recover naturally. The duration of the impact is likely to reduce to short term since the disruption should be recovered fully over a period of no more than 5 years. The spatial extent remains local and the probability that the impact will occur following the implementation of the mitigation measures is rated as medium.

After mitigation and during operation, a small residual impact may remain for some of the most poor and vulnerable households, simply in the form of being able to adapt to a new environment to which they are resettled and rebuilding their lives. However, it is likely to be of low severity, reverse over time, and be short in duration. Spatial extent is likely to be local while the probability that the impact will occur after mitigation is low.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 2 – Low 1 – Reversable 2 – Short term 2 – Local 3 – Medium

The overall significance of the impact after mitigation is calculated to be 21 {(2+1+2+2)x3} which is a negative impact of low significance.

 Significance Rating during Operation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 2 – Low 1 – Reversable 2 – Short term 2 – local 2 - Low

The overall significance of the impact is calculated to be 14 {(2+1+2+2)x2} which is a negative impact of low significance.

Table 7-2: Summary of Impact Assessment – Relocation and Compensation

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE High Moderate

REVERSABILITY Recoverable Recoverable

DURATION Medium Short

SPATIAL EXTENT Local Local

PROBABILITY Definite High

STATUS (+ OR -) Neagtive Negative

SIGNIFICANCE (NO High Medium MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION Yes – fair compensation to Yes – resettle those that make

ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL be paid to all households their living from subsistence that are in the way of the agriculture to areas where they dike, channel and ancillary can continue to do so. Facilitate works. System is in place. choice.

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH Low Low MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL High High

7.2 Loss of Livelihoods, especially for the Poor and Vulnerable

Although people will be compensated fairly, it will still cause a serious disruption in their lives and livelihoods, especially for those residing in homesteads and dependent on their crop fields for their livelihoods. Even if they receive substantial sums of compensation it does not ensure that they will spend it wisely to substitute their current livelihood sources with sustainable alternative sources.

7.2.1 During Construction and Operation Although households will be compensated, they will still need to find an alternative place to live and make a living. This would entail finding a new suitable place to settle, rebuilding their structures and fences and fostering new relationships in a new area. While the disruption will take place during construction it is likely to continue during the operation phase of the project. It is after the dust has settled, compensation has been paid and everybody continues with their lives, that the poor and vulnerable households will bear the brunt of their resettlement and rebuilding their lives.

7.2.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact will be negative in nature.

 Severity/Magnitude:

It can be expected that the impact will be severe, especially for those households that are poor and vulnerable and that need to find an alternative place where they can continue with their lives. It is likely to be less severe to

those that have other alternative incomes, are not dependent on their fields and utilise their compensation to, for example, relocate to an urban area.

 Reversibility:

The impact is recoverable through careful planning and through making sure that the poor and vulnerable households are provided with suitable alternative land where they can sustain themselves.

 Duration:

The duration of the impact is medium term and likely to be weathered within a period of 5 to 15 years. However, if left to its own devices the impact may remain for a longer period of time.

 Spatial Extent:

The spatial extent of the impact is local.

 Probability:

The probability that the impact will occur is high if left unmitigated.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

The degree of confidence in the assessment is high.

 Significance Rating during Construction and Operation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 4 – High 3 – Recoverable 3 – Medium 2 – Local 4 – High term The overall significance of the impact is calculated to be 60 {(4+3+3+2)x4} which is a negative impact of high significance.

7.2.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures Special care needs to be taken to ensure that the poor and vulnerable households are cared for adequately. It is not enough to simply pay compensation and then leave them to their own devices. During fieldwork, it was observed that many households consist of old people, even physically challenged people and young children and they simply do not have the

capacity to deal with such an upheaval. It is therefore proposed that the following mitigation measures be implemented to mitigate this impact:

 That each household be evaluated individually and that those that are found to be vulnerable and dependent on their fields be relocated to other areas where they can rebuild their lives and retain their livelihoods. For this to realise, it will be necessary for the traditional leadership to consider and allocate suitable areas to these households should they prefer to settle there.  That some assistance in the form of transportation be provided to identified vulnerable households to relocate to a newly identified area or site.  That traditional leaders be tasked to specifically monitor these households to ensure that they do not become worse-off than they were before the project.  That a relocation action plan be prepared which will detail the methodology of resettlement, provide for special care of the poor and vulnerable and provide for grievances to be dealt with adequately and fairly.

7.2.4 Significance after Mitigation After mitigation, the severity of the impact will be reduced to low, and the impact will reverse over time. It is estimated that the impact should cease within 5 years after relocation and it would therefore be short term. The impact will remain local and the probability that the impact will still occur is rated as low.

 Significance Rating during Construction and Operation after mitigation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 2 – Low 2 – Reversible 2 – Short term 2 – Local 2 – Low

The overall significance of the impact is calculated to be 16 {(2+2+2+2)x2} which is a negative impact of low significance.

A summary of the assessment is provided in the table below:

Table 7-3: Summary of Impact Assessment – Loss of Livelihoods

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE High High

REVERSABILITY Recoverable Recoverable

DURATION Medium Medium

SPATIAL EXTENT Local Local

PROBABILITY High High

STATUS (+ OR -) Negative Negative

SIGNIFICANCE (NO High High MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION Yes – dealing with households individually to ensure that the poor ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL and vulnerable can retain their sources of livelihood, involvement of the traditional leaders to allocate land and monitor, provision of transport and a relocation action plan. .

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH Low Low MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL High High

7.3 New and more severe Flooding of some households as a result of the Backwater effect of the Dike System.

The hydrological model was prepared on the basis of the 2011 floods in the area. It basically modelled what can be expected to happen should a similar intensity flood as in 2011 occur again and then modelled what could be expected with and without the dike in place. The findings of the model indicated that there will be a backwater effect, which is when the level of the water upstream from the dike will rise to a higher level under the same flood scenario as a result of the hydrological characteristics that can be expected from the flow of water into and around the dike wall and in the channel. The result of this is that 54 households that were flooded in 2011 will, if the same flood occurs, now be even deeper under water than what was the case in 2011. In addition, the backwater effect will cause about 146

60 homesteads that were not flooded in 2011 to be flooded if the same flood occurs with the dike in place.

7.3.1 During Operation The impact will only occur during the operational phase of the project and will only happen when similar or higher floods than the 2011 floods recur. This may happen next year or only after another 50 years. Should this happen, people will most likely lose their crops, household assets and even structures in the process. However, it must be made clear that the hydrological model was based on assumptions about flood return periods, water volumes and velocities and hydrological properties which may not be entirely accurate. It is only a model which is imperfect without accurate time series data. To compensate for this the model is acknowledged to be on the conservative side and the backwater effect may not be as high as expected. It could also be that the actual areas likely to be flooded could be much less than anticipated.

7.3.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact will be negative in nature.

 Severity/Magnitude:

Assuming that the impact will occur with similar-to-2011 floods, it can be expected that the impact will be high, that people’s livelihoods will be threatened and that assistance to such flood victims will be required from Government.

 Reversibility:

Once the dike is in position, the impact will be irreversible.

 Duration:

The duration of the impact is short term and likely to occur only occasionally. It is not clear if so called climate change will have an impact on the frequency of flooding, nor what the impact will be.

 Spatial Extent:

The spatial extent of the impact is local.

 Probability:

The probability that the impact will occur is low, especially in the light of expert assessments that the assumptions of the hydrological model is rather conservative. However, it is certain that such floods as in 2011 and even worse will occur at some point in the future.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

The degree of confidence in the assessment is medium due to the uncertainty of the assumptions of the model and opinions that it may be very conservative.

 Significance Rating during Operation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 4 – High 5 – Irreversible 1 – Short term 2 – Local 3 – Medium

The overall significance of the impact is calculated to be 36 {(4+5+1+2)x3} which is a negative impact of medium significance.

7.3.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures It is not proposed that these households be relocated, simply because of the uncertainty of the severity of flooding which may occur, the conservative assumptions used in the hydrological model and the fact that if such floods occur and the identified households are flooded, that it will be very short term and irregular. It is therefore proposed that:

 The Ministry of Agriculture erect the necessary monitoring stations along the main channels of the cuvelai delta to provide better information which can be used to re-calibrate the model, to make better predictions on the severity of flooding in future and to serve as an early warning system for the residents of the region and those that may be exposed to flooding as a result of the dike.  The Oshana Regional Council and the Oshakati Town Council assess the flood risks and actual flooding regularly in order to plan a suitable

response to come to the aid of flood victims should the predictions of the hydrological model be proven accurate.

7.3.4 Significance after Mitigation Since the confidence in the predictions of this impact is medium, the mitigation measures are aimed at making sure that the Oshana Regional Council and the Oshakati Town Council will be in a position to anticipate if and when flooding as a result of the backwater effect is likely to occur and to improve predictability. However, the assessment assumes that the hydrological model is accurate. This is doubtful and, provided that the mitigation measures are put in place, the significance of the impact decreases to low. Severity is assessed as moderate, the impact will be recoverable with human input, the duration will remain sporadic and short term and the probability assessed as medium.

 Significance Rating during Operation after Mitigation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 2 – Low 3 – Recoverable 1 – Short term 2 – Local 3 – Medium

The overall significance of the impact is calculated to be 24 {(2+3+1+2)x3} which is a negative impact of low significance.

A summary of the assessment is provided in the table below:

Table 7-4: Summary of Impact Assessment – Backwater Flooding

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE n/a High

REVERSABILITY n/a Irreversible

DURATION n/a Short Term

SPATIAL EXTENT n/a Local

PROBABILITY n/a Medium

STATUS (+ OR -) n/a Negative

SIGNIFICANCE (NO n/a Medium MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION n/a Yes – flood measurements ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL stations, updating of hydrological model, early warning system and flood response system.,

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH n/a Low MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL n/a medium

7.4 Creation of Local Employment Opportunities

The Oshana Region has a 40% unemployment rate. Local employment creation is therefore one of the main concerns for the community and will be an extremely valuable contribution to the economy of the region as well as to the local economy. The construction of the dike will directly create significant numbers of both permanent and part time employment opportunities. However, there are concerns about the extent to which employment opportunities will be available for local people as opposed to people from outside the region who may move into the area and capture the jobs on offer. The actual significance of employment creation will depend on the extent of labour based or labour enhanced methods employed in the construction model. This can reduce unemployment and hence poverty.

7.4.1 During construction The direct impact of local employment occurs only during construction. It is estimated that, should labour based or labour enhanced methods be used, about 5500 workers will be employed during the construction of the dike and the deepening of the Okatana Channel. If the construction is done conventionally, it is estimates that only about 550 workers will be needed for the project. During such employment, workers will acquire skills that could be employed elsewhere after construction. This will contribute to the employability of workers after the completion of the project.

7.4.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact will be positive in nature.

 Severity/Magnitude:

With the high levels of unemployment in the Oshana Region, the creation of employment would obviously be of critical importance to the people of the Region and the nation as a whole. The magnitude of the impact is therefore rated as high.

 Reversibility:

The direct employment impact will cease after completion of the project and is therefore reversible. The skills that will be created though can also

lead to indirect employment after the construction period has ended for the workers therefore the impact is rated 2.

 Duration:

The duration of the impact will be of short duration and last until construction of the dike is completed.

 Spatial Extent:

The impact is local in extent.

 Probability:

Workers will definitely be recruited locally.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

The degree of confidence in the predictions is high.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 4 – High 1 – Reversible 2 – Short 2 – Local 5 – Definite

The overall significance of the impact is calculated to be 45 {(4+1+2+2)x5} which is a positive impact of medium significance.

7.4.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures To ensure that the project has maximum benefit, it is recommended that labour based or labour enhanced methods be used in the construction of the dike and its ancillary works as well as the deepening of the Okatana Channel. In order to ensure that the benefit of employment creation will filter down to a local level it is necessary to include the obligation to recruit and use local workers first from Okatana, Oshakati East and West and Ongwediva to the maximum extent possible and practical. It is recommended that the successful contractor be obliged to only bring key staff from its head office, if outside the region, and to then set up an employment office and recruit local people for as high a proportion of the project scope as possible. Local political leaders and the ministry of labour should be involved in this process and partake in formulating the recruitment plan and conditions. Although this will ensure that the maximum number of

people benefit from the project in the form of employment, the significance of this impact is unlikely to rise to a high significance level. It is further recommended that in respect of Namibian contractors they be required to recruit at least the unskilled and semi-skilled personnel required from within the project area.

7.4.4 Significance after Enhancement. The proposed enhancement measures will ensure that employment opportunities are maximised and that local people will get as much benefit from the project as possible. The significance of the impact will be enhanced to high significance with magnitude being very high in the context of the levels of unemployment in the project area, it will reverse after construction, the duration will be stretched to medium term, the spatial extent would increase to regional and the probability will remain definite.

 Significance Rating during Construction after Enhancement:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 5 – Very High 1 – Reversible 3 – Medium 3 – Regional 5 – Definite

The overall significance of the impact is calculated to be 60 {(5+1+3+3)x5} which is a positive impact of high significance. A summary of the assessment is provided in the table below.

Table 7-5: Summary of Impact Assessment – Employment Creation

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE High n/a

REVERSABILITY Reversible n/a

DURATION Short Term n/a

SPATIAL EXTENT Local n/a

PROBABILITY Definite n/a

STATUS (+ OR -) Positive n/a

SIGNIFICANCE (NO Medium n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION Yes – labour n/a ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL based/enhanced with local recruitment required

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH High n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL High n/a

7.5 Safety Risk to People and Livestock of Injury or Drowning

There are safety risks for accidents associated with the deepening of the Okatana channel and the excavation of borrow pits i.e. people and animals falling into these and drown or be injured. The design of the dike slopes however significantly mitigate this risk and will be flat enough so that both people and animals can cross them safely. From previous studies it was also found that local people actually make use of the borrow pits for fishing.

7.5.1 During operation Although there is an existing safety risk for people and animals from the annual efundja, the deepened channel north and west of the dike, and through Oshakati may increase the impact on human safety since it will be

deeper and water velocity will be higher than what people are used to. Borrow pits will need to be excavated for construction material which pose a safety risk to people and animals from falling in if the sides of the borrow pits are too steep.

7.5.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is negative.

 Severity/Magnitude:

A safety risk that could increase accidents in the community is considered to be of high magnitude.

 Reversibility:

Although there will always be a chance of accidental drowning the impact is considered recoverable as the dike walls will be levelled so as to avoid injury, and the channels only fill with water during the seasonal efundja. Bridges will also be constructed across the channels for people to use so that they do not have to swim through. Furthermore, local people are accustomed to use the borrow pits for fishing and as a source of water. Therefore, it is understood that the community do not have a perception of borrow pits as a safety risk but as a resource.

 Duration:

The impact is permanent since there will always be a safety risk involved where people live alongside water bodies. However this risk will be there in the same areas with or without the project. Arguably the dike to some extent decreases the risk of drowning for households who have to be relocated annually as a result of flooding.

 Spatial Extent:

The impact will be limited primarily to Oshakati East and West and Okatana constituencies and is therefore local.

 Probability:

Accidental injury or drowning is known to occur but it is not a routine occurrence therefore the probability is medium.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

There were reported cases of people drowning in oshanas during the flood period, probably because no alternative means to cross were available. There will be bridges across the dike and channels so it is not known whether people will still choose to swim across. There is less certainty however regarding injury or drowning as a result of borrow pits. Confidence in these predictions is therefore considered to be medium.

 Significance Rating during Operation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 4 – High 3 – Recoverable 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 3 – Medium

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 42 ({4+3+5+2)x3} which is a negative impact of medium significance.

7.5.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures Swimming in the dike and the channel must not be allowed or should be at one’s own risk. Information boards to this effect must be erected at strategic points alongside the dike and channel. The walls of the borrow pits must be levelled afterwards and borrow pits rehabilitated where necessary so that people and livestock cannot fall in and get injured.

7.5.4 Significance after Mitigation After mitigation the significance of this impact will reduce to low. Creating awareness of the dangers of deeper channels and the dangers of borrow pits together with acceptable rehabilitation of the borrow pits will decrease the severity of the impact to moderate and make it reversible through awareness raising and people getting used to it. The duration will remain permanent, the extent local and the probability will reduce to low.

 Significance Rating during Operation after Mitigation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 3 – Moderate 1 – Reversable 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 2 – Low

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 22 ({3+1+5+2)x3} which is a negative impact of low significance.

Table 7-6: Summary of Impact Assessment – Safety Risks of Injury/Drowning

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE n/a High

REVERSABILITY n/a Recoverable

DURATION n/a Permanent

SPATIAL EXTENT n/a Local

PROBABILITY n/a Medium

STATUS (+ OR -) n/a Negative

SIGNIFICANCE (NO n/a Medium MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION n/a Yes – awareness raising and ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL specifications of slopes, especially at the borrow pits.

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH n/a Low MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL n/a medium

7.6 Safety Risk to People and Livestock from Construction Machinery

7.6.1 During construction The movement and operation of large machinery presents a safety risk to local residents since the construction activities will occur in close proximity to homesteads as well as within the town of Oshakati. People, and children in particular, would become curious to see these machines in operation and this could result in serious accidents.

7.6.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is negative in nature.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The severity would likely be high as local people will come into daily contact with large-scale construction activities and excavations.

 Reversibility:

After construction the impact ceases and is therefore reversible.

 Duration:

It will be of short duration as it will only be a concern during construction.

 Spatial Extent:

It will be site-specific i.e. only where construction activities are undertaken.

 Probability:

The close proximity of the construction activities to people makes it a real concern and although accidents cannot be predicted the probability is high.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

Confidence in these predictions is high.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 4 – High 1 – Reversible 2 – Short 1 – Site 4 – High specific The overall significance of the construction phase impacts are calculated to be 32 ({4+1+2+1)x4} which is a negative impact of medium significance.

7.6.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures To mitigate this impact, it is necessary for safety procedures to be included in the Environmental Management Plan (EMP) in the form of guidelines on how to protect local people against injury and how to safeguard construction activities. Clear instructions must be given to contractor staff on how to be sensitive to and deal with people and children coming too close to dangerous construction activities. In addition, the traditional chief of the area must be called upon to inform residents to stay away from construction machinery and activities and to ensure that their children are kept away or at least remain at a safe distance.

7.6.4 Significance after Mitigation The significance of the impact after enhancement is reduced to low since the magnitude of the impact will become moderate. Reversibility, duration and spatial extent remains the same and probability decreases to medium.

 Significance Rating during Construction after Mitigation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 3 – Moderate 1 – Reversible 2 – Short 1 – Site 3 – Medium specific The overall significance of the construction phase impacts are calculated to be 21 ({3+1+2+1)x3} which is a negative impact of low significance.

The impact summary is provided in the table below.

Table 7-7: Summary of Impact Assessment – Safety Risk of Construction Machinery

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE High n/a

REVERSABILITY Reversible n/a

DURATION Short Term n/a

SPATIAL EXTENT Site Specific n/a

PROBABILITY High n/a

STATUS (+ OR -) Negative n/a

SIGNIFICANCE (NO Medium n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION Yes – EMP provisions to n/a ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL make sure that construction workers are constantly on guard to make sure that especially children stay away from dangerous areas and involvement of traditional leaders to control this from the side of the community.

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH Low n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL High n/a

7.7 Dust and Noise Disturbance

7.7.1 During operation Adjacent land owners may be disturbed by the noise and dust produced from the haul vehicles, earthmoving equipment and construction activities. The construction of the dike and channel would require large quantities of building material and other supplies (fuel, supplies to the construction village etc.), some of which could be delivered to the site by trucks that are most likely to pass in close proximity to homesteads. The roads to some of the sites are likely to be unpaved and the traffic next to these homesteads could result in significant disruption from dust and noise from passing traffic.

7.7.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is negative in nature.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The magnitude of the impact is expected to be minor in the area of the dike as most households will be relocated. Construction work on the Okatana channel will however largely be done in Oshakati as it winds through the town which will be of moderate magnitude.

 Reversibility:

The impact will reverse after construction has ended.

 Duration:

The impact is of short duration (0-5 years) and the actual generation of dust and noise in proximity to houses or homesteads will be for a much shorter period.

 Spatial Extent:

The impact is site specific to the construction sites.

 Probability:

It is highly probable that some noise and dust disturbance will be produced.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

There is a high degree of confidence in the predictions.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 3 – Moderate 1 – Reversible 2 – Short 1 – Site only 4 – High

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 28 ({3+1+2+1)x4} which is a negative impact of low significance.

7.7.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures Noise and dust suppression is not considered necessary as the impact is too low to warrant mitigation measures on the construction of the dike. However, dust suppression measures must be specified in the EMP wherever construction or transport activities take place on unpaved roads in close proximity to residential and business areas.

7.7.4 Significance after Mitigation The significance of the impact after mitigation remains as it was before mitigation.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 3 – Moderate 1 – Reversible 2 – Short 1 – Site only 4 – High

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 28 ({3+1+2+1)x4} which is a negative impact of low significance.

The impact summary is provided in the table below.

Table 7-8: Summary of Impact Assessment – Dust and Noise

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE Moderate n/a

REVERSABILITY Reversible n/a

DURATION Short Term n/a

SPATIAL EXTENT Site Specific n/a

PROBABILITY High n/a

STATUS (+ OR -) Negative n/a

SIGNIFICANCE (NO Low n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION Yes – EMP provisions to n/a ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL ensure that dust suppression be done in areas where they work in close proximity to residential and business areas

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH Low n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL High n/a

7.8 Flood Protection of the Oshakati / Ongwediva Urban Area

The main purpose of the construction of the dike is to prevent the flooding of houses which are currently located on lower-lying land in the town and relieve pressure from the local authority and the Government to look after a large number of displaced households. Also, it is to facilitate the gradual implementation of the Concept Master Plan.

7.8.1 During operation The dike will improve the protection of people’s property and lives from flooding after construction of the dike. Approximately 1000 households will

be flood free and will no longer be displaced annually as a result of the floods.

7.8.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is positively the reason for the flood prevention measures.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The magnitude is very high as the flood disaster was declared a national emergency.

 Reversibility:

The impact is irreversible once flood waters get diverted away from the urban areas.

 Duration:

The construction of the dike is planned to permanently protect the town against flood disasters.

 Spatial Extent:

The dike flood prevention measure is to primarily protect Oshakati against flooding therefore the impact is local in extent.

 Probability:

The dike in conjunction with the channels and stormwater management system will definitely prevent further flooding of Oshakati.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

Although the possibility of dike failure cannot forever be discarded due to perceived climate change, the confidence in the design and engineering of the dike, channel and stormwater system to prevent any future flood scenarios is high.

 Significance Rating during Operation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 5 – Very High 5 – Irreversible 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 5 – Definite

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 85 ({5+5+5+2)x5} which is a positive impact of high significance.

7.8.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures A flood emergency and response plan must, as a precautionary measure, be prepared for the Oshakati and Ongwediva towns in the unlikely event of dike failure. Occasional inspection of the dike is required to ensure structural integrity and a maintenance plan must be prepared for the dike. Record must be taken of the frequency and strength of flooding of the efundja to form part of monitoring to determine whether future upgrading / expansion of the dike might be needed.

7.8.4 Significance after Enhancement The significance after enhancement measures as proposed remains high.

 Significance Rating during Operation after mitigation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 5 – Very High 5 – Irreversible 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 5 – Definite

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 85 ({5+5+5+2)x5} which is a positive impact of high significance. The impact summary is provided in the table below.

Table 7-9: Summary of Impact Assessment – Flood Protection

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE Very High n/a

REVERSABILITY Irreversible n/a

DURATION Permanent n/a

SPATIAL EXTENT Local n/a

PROBABILITY Definite n/a

STATUS (+ OR -) Positive n/a

SIGNIFICANCE (NO High n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION Yes – ensure monitoring and n/a ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL emergency response plan to prevent dike failure and deal with it if it occurs.

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH High n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL High n/a

7.9 Reclamation of Land for Urban Development

More space will be reclaimed for urban development close to the centre of Oshakati with resultant cost savings. Where the current development is fairly spread out with only higher lying islands available for urban development, areas that are currently flooded will become available for development with opportunities for a more compact and cost effective urban form.

7.9.1 During operation After construction of the dike a basin will be created that will be largely flood free and allow for the integrated and logical urban development of Oshakati and Ongwediva. This will bring cost savings in terms of the provision of bulk services, the maintenance of services and the cost of land for various land uses. It will facilitate the gradual implementation of the Concept Master

Plan. It is also likely to facilitate cost savings for individual people with reduced mean travelling distances.

7.9.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is positive.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The magnitude is very high as more land will be made available in-between Oshakati and Ongwediva and through mitigation of the flood situation that restricts growth between the towns.

 Reversibility:

Once the land is reclaimed it will be developed irreversibly.

 Duration:

The land will be permanently reclaimed for development purposes.

 Spatial Extent:

The extent of the impact will primarily benefit Oshakati and Ongwediva locally.

 Probability:

Based on recent growth seen in towns of the Oshana Region, with the removal of restrictive flooding conditions and a master plan to guide development, the probability of the planned and continued growth of Oshakati and Ongwediva is definite.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

The degree of confidence in these predictions is high.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 5 – Very high 5 – Irreversible 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 5 – Definite

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 85 {(5+5+5+2)x5} which is a positive impact of high significance.

7.9.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures The impact is very positive and a mitigation measure in itself, and with a concept master plan in place to guide development no further enhancement measures is deemed necessary. A summary of the impact is provided below.

Table 7-10: Summary of Impact Assessment – Reclamation of Land

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE n/a Very High

REVERSABILITY n/a Irreversible

DURATION n/a Permanent

SPATIAL EXTENT n/a Local

PROBABILITY n/a Definite

STATUS (+ OR -) n/a Positive

SIGNIFICANCE (NO n/a High MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION n/a No – not required ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH n/a High MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL n/a High

7.10 Barrier Effect of Dike and Channel

7.10.1 During operation The dike will further limit access to Oshakati during the wet season since the channel will be deeper than is currently the case. Access by donkey cart and on foot will need to be taken across the few bridges and this will decrease accessibility for people residing outside the dike. Traditional pathways, children walking to school and the movement of livestock will be

affected. During the annual efundja traditional pathways however are already affected and people have to travel around the flooded Oshana channels to reach Oshakati.

7.10.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is negative.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The magnitude is considered minor as the bridges that will be constructed over the channels will provide the necessary access to Oshakati. People may have to travel further to reach a bridge crossing. The alternative is that people have to cross through Oshana which is unsafe and also probably as time-consuming as travelling around

 Reversibility:

The potential impact is reversible through bridge construction. The bridges across the channels could actually improve the restricted access experienced currently during flood periods.

 Duration:

The affect that people may have to travel further to reach a bridge is permanent.

 Spatial Extent:

The impact is local to the extent that people may have to travel further to reach a bridge to Oshakati.

 Probability:

It is improbable that the channel will cut off access to Oshakati and if it happens it will only be of short duration.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

The degree of confidence in these predictions is high.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 1 – Minor 1 – Reversible 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 1 – Improbable

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 9 ({1+1+5+2)x1} which is a negative impact of low significance.

7.10.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures No mitigation measures are required as the construction of bridges across the channel could actually improve accessibility to Oshakati during the efundja. A summary of the impact is provided below.

Table 7-11: Summary of Impact Assessment – Barrier Effect

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE n/a Minor

REVERSABILITY n/a Reversible

DURATION n/a Permanent

SPATIAL EXTENT n/a Local

PROBABILITY n/a Improbable

STATUS (+ OR -) n/a Negative

SIGNIFICANCE (NO n/a Low MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION n/a No – not required ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH n/a Low MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL n/a High

7.11 Benefits of Project for the Local Economy

7.11.1 During construction It is anticipated that the project will directly benefit the local economy and the community in a number of ways during construction. This will be primarily through access to employment opportunities and the creation of skills. The workers in turn will receive wages that will be circulated back into the local economy and support the network of small shops in the area and larger shops in town. The industrial and commercial sectors of Oshakati also stand to benefit by forming part of the supply chain of and in service provision to the contractor.

7.11.2 During operation During operation the local economy will benefit significantly from protection against flooding as businesses that had to close during the flood period endured a substantial loss of income for both owners and employees.

7.11.3 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is positive.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The magnitude is considered high as the local economy of Oshakati will have incentive to grow during construction and business owners will get reassurance from flood protection after construction.

 Reversibility:

Some of the positive economic spin-offs will cease after construction, although the impact is recoverable to some extent as local businesses will be protected against flooding.

 Duration:

Local economic development during construction will last for a short duration only, but the protection of businesses in Oshakati is permanent.

 Spatial Extent:

Support of local economic development is local in extent.

 Probability:

There is a high probability that the local economy will grow as a result of the project.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

The degree of confidence in these predictions is high.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 4 – High 1 – Reversible 2 – Short 2 – Local 4 – High

The overall significance of the construction phase impacts are calculated to be 36 {(4+1+2+2)x4} which is a positive impact of medium significance.

 Significance Rating during Operation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 4 - High 3 – 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 4 – High Recoverable The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 56 {(4+3+5+2)x4} which is a positive impact of medium significance.

7.11.4 Mitigation / enhancement measures No further enhancement measures are required for this impact. A summary of the impact is provided below.

Table 7-12: Summary of Impact Assessment – Local Economy

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE High High

REVERSABILITY Reversible Recoverable

DURATION Short Permanent

SPATIAL EXTENT Local Local

PROBABILITY High High

STATUS (+ OR -) Positive Positive

SIGNIFICANCE (NO Medium Medium MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION No – not required No – not required ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH Medium Medium MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL High High

7.12 Increased Business, Recreation and Tourism opportunities

7.12.1 During operation Oshakati is primarily an overnight destination for visitors and business people and tourism opportunities are limited to accommodation establishments. It is possible that the dike and channel could form an important water feature of Oshakati although to a lesser extent as envisioned in the initial Oshakati Concept Master Plan. Some developments related to the dike and channels that could lead to an increase in tourism and business growth includes a waterfront development and landscaping of the channels to develop an esplanade with recreational facilities and amenities for the public. Water sport activities would also be possible to some extent during the efundja such as fishing or sailing.

7.12.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is positive.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The magnitude is high as Oshakati has no defining feature that could be attractive to tourists and provide recreational areas hence present new business opportunities.

 Reversibility:

An increase in tourism, recreation and business opportunities is irreversible after the dike and channels are constructed.

 Duration:

The impact is permanent.

 Spatial Extent:

It is a local impact to the benefit of Oshakati.

 Probability:

The probability is considered low that the dike and channels will be developed as a water feature and tourism attraction as well.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

The degree of confidence in these predictions is high as the initial plan is to develop the dike and channel not only as a flood protection measure but as water feature as well.

 Significance Rating during Operation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 4 – High 5 – Irreversible 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 2 – Low

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 32 ({4+5+5+2)x2} which is a positive impact of medium significance.

7.12.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures This part of the concept master plan needs further development and design for implementation.

7.12.4 Significance after Enhancement No enhancement measures can be designed at this stage and the significance remains the same. A summary is provided below.

Table 7-13: Summary of Impact Assessment

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE n/a High

REVERSABILITY n/a Irreversible

DURATION n/a Permanent

SPATIAL EXTENT n/a Local

PROBABILITY n/a Low

STATUS (+ OR -) n/a Positive

SIGNIFICANCE (NO n/a Medium MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION n/a No – cannot be developed yet ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH n/a Medium MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL n/a High

7.13 Breeding Ground for Water-borne Disease Vectors

7.13.1 During operation The deepening of the river may result in water standing for longer periods than normal. Since this will be stagnant water it may lead to health threats due to water quality and malaria since it will be an improved mosquito breeding ground. Other health impacts associated with the spreading of diseases include balharzia which is slowly being introduced to the area from the Kunene River system in Angola.

7.13.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is negative.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The channel and stormwater system is designed to effectively drain flood and stormwater away from Oshakati so as not to fill up depressions in town which cause water to stagnate. It is not foreseen that an increase in stagnant water will occur in the deepened and widened channels where most flood water can settle. It is therefore unlikely to lead to more mosquitoes or associated health risks. In addition, local internal stormwater will also be drained more effectively, so the magnitude is rated low.

 Reversibility:

The impact of an improved mosquito breeding ground in the channels is unlikely and reversible. It can only be caused by poor maintenance and perhaps differential siltation in the system.

 Duration:

The impact is permanent.

 Spatial Extent:

The impact will occur only around the channel areas therefore it is local in extent.

 Probability:

It is not likely that more water will stagnate in the channels since it will be smoothed out and within Oshakati, where the largest proportion of the population resides, the situation will be greatly improved. The probability of a health risk resulting from stagnant water in Oshakati and surrounds is therefore considered low.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

Whether a significant decrease in water quality and therefore an increase in health risks in and near to the channels than is already the situation is largely unknown therefore the degree of confidence in these predictions is medium.

 Significance Rating during Operation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 2 – Low 1 – Reversible 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 2 – Low

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 20 ({2+1+5+2)x2} which is a negative impact of low significance.

7.13.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures No mitigation measures are deemed necessary. The land laid dry in Oshakati and the internal stormwater system is already a mitigation measure that offsets a potential increase of stagnant water in the channel areas.

7.13.4 Significance after Mitigation Since no mitigation measures are realistically possible or necessary, the impact significance remains the same as before mitigation. A summary of the impact is provided below.

Table 7-14: Summary of Impact Assessment – Water Borne Disease

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE n/a Low

REVERSABILITY n/a Reversible

DURATION n/a Permanent

SPATIAL EXTENT n/a Local

PROBABILITY n/a Low

STATUS (+ OR -) n/a Negative

SIGNIFICANCE (NO n/a Low MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION n/a No – not required ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH n/a Low MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL n/a High

7.14 Improved Sanitation due to the movement of Previously Standing (contaminated) Water away from Oshakati

7.14.1 During operation Stagnant localised stormwater is a health risk and this will largely be eliminated by a good internal stormwater system. A stormwater system will reduce sewer seepage into the natural ground and surface water, something which is difficult to manage and maintain under the present flood scenario in the town.

7.14.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is positive.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The magnitude is very high in that the stormwater system of Oshakati is in urgent need of upgrading in the interest of public health as stormwater stagnates in the town leading to associated health risks.

 Reversibility:

The impact of improved sanitation is irreversible.

 Duration:

The impact is permanent.

 Spatial Extent:

The upgrading of the Oshakati stormwater system will be local in extent.

 Probability:

Most of the stormwater would likely be effectively drained away therefore the probability is high.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

The degree of confidence in these predictions is high.

 Significance Rating during Operation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 5 – Very high 5 – Irreversible 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 4 – High

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 68 ({5+5+5+2)x4} which is a positive impact of high significance.

7.14.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures An effective maintenance plan for the stormwater system must be included in the EMP and provided to the Oshakati Town Council that has to prepare budgeting for its implementation. Maintenance is crucially needed to ensure that no blockage or siltation occurs which would otherwise again result in the accumulation of stagnant water or even the reversal of the impact to the extent that new areas could become flooded in the future.

7.14.4 Significance after Enhancement The enhancement measures are designed to ensure that the status quo after construction is maintained and it has no impact on the significance after enhancement. A summary of the impact is provided in the table below.

Table 7-15: Summary of Impact Assessment – Improved Sanitation Conditions

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE n/a Very High

REVERSABILITY n/a Irreversible

DURATION n/a Permanent

SPATIAL EXTENT n/a Local

PROBABILITY n/a High

STATUS (+ OR -) n/a Positive

SIGNIFICANCE (NO n/a High MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION n/a No – not required ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH n/a High MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL n/a High

7.15 Destruction of Graves or Cultural Resources

Graves represents a sensitive issue as it is places where people go to remember and commemorate the deceased. The Oshiwambo culture is more associated with activities rather than specific sites or artefacts therefore the likelihood of cultural sites being discovered that cannot be removed is unlikely. During the socio-economic survey however a grave site was found that will need to be relocated.

7.15.1 During construction The graves are in the way of the channel and this grave site will need to be relocated.

7.15.2 During operation It is unlikely that there will be any effects during the operational phase of the project.

7.15.3 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is negative.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The magnitude is medium. Although graves are a sensitive and emotive issue, exhumation is not considered as culturally inappropriate for the Oshiwambo people.

 Reversibility:

The impact is reversible because graves can be exhumed for reburial.

 Duration:

The impact is immediate.

 Spatial Extent:

The impact is site specific to each burial or cultural site.

 Probability:

Graves were observed within the affected area therefore the probability is definite although other unknown sites could still be discovered during construction or operation.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

The degree of confidence in these predictions is high.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 3 – Medium 3 – 1 – Immediate 1 – Site only 5 – Definite / Recoverable don’t know

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 40 ({4+3+1+1)x5} which is a negative impact of medium significance.

7.15.4 Mitigation / enhancement measures The graves that will be affected by construction of the dike have to be exhumed and reburied. This will require further consultation with the local

community to obtain consent for exhumation and to identify a suitable site for reburial. A “chance find procedure” must be provided for in the EMP during construction in the event that graves (or the highly unlikely event of a cultural site) are discovered. This procedure must remain in place for some time after the dike is constructed should graves or cultural sites that had previously not been flood-prone be in danger of flooding as a result of the backwater effect. The exhumation of graves must be done in terms of Namibian legislation.

7.15.5 Significance after Mitigation If due care is taken to identify and relocate all graves and other unknown cultural assets, the significance of the impact is reduced to low since the probability that the impact will occur is decreased to a low probability.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 3 – Medium 3 – 1 – Immediate 1 – Site only 2 - Low Recoverable

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 18 ({4+3+1+1)x2} which is a negative impact of Low significance. A summary of the impact is provided in the table below.

Table 7-16: Summary of Impact Assessment – Graves and Cultural Resources

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE Medium n/a

REVERSABILITY Recoverable n/a

DURATION Immediate n/a

SPATIAL EXTENT Site Only n/a

PROBABILITY Definite n/a

STATUS (+ OR -) Negative n/a

SIGNIFICANCE (NO Medium n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION Yes – Exhumation and n/a ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL re-burial and chance find procedure in EMP

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH Low n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL High n/a

7.16 Increase in the Spread of HIV/Aids and other STDs

7.16.1 During construction The Oshana Region has one of the highest recorded HIV/AIDS rates in the country and sexual contact between the construction workers and the local population is bound to occur. Construction workers moving into the area from elsewhere could increase the spread of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Largely linked to the presence of the construction workforce it is normally found that these workers come into an area and soon experience the need for social and sexual interaction. They generally receive above average incomes and can afford to pay for sexual favours which are normally sought from the local population. Research on the impacts of the Break the Chain Campaign has shown that women tend to be attracted to such men and that, linked with the use of alcohol, it would result in sexual relationships with such men. If not mitigated, this could lead to an increase in the spread of

HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. It could also lead to marital problems in the host communities when women get involved with the construction workers who splash money around in search of partners.

7.16.2 Impact significance  Nature of the Impact:

The impact is negative.

 Severity/Magnitude:

The severity of the impact is rated as very high, because the incidence levels are high and the devastating effect HIV/AIDS has on infected people and the affected who needs to live with or are dependent on them.

 Reversibility:

The impact is irreversible in the case of HIV/AIDS and recoverable in the case of STDs and potential marital problems that may result from the impact.

 Duration:

The duration is rated as permanent because HIV/AIDS is incurable and will impact on a person that are infected for the rest of his or her life.

 Spatial Extent:

The spatial extent is rated as local since it will only happen in the host communities located close to the project.

 Probability:

The probability that the impact will occur is high.

 Status and Degree of Confidence:

Based on experience with other large-scale projects, the level of confidence in the assessment is high.

 Significance Rating during Construction:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 5 – Very high 5 – Irreversible 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 4 – High

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 68 {(5+5+5+2)x4} which is a negative impact of high significance.

7.16.3 Mitigation / enhancement measures It must be a condition of the construction contract that HIV/AIDS awareness campaigns be undertaken amongst all construction staff. A suitably qualified person must design and implement the programme throughout the course of construction. In addition, it must also be made a condition of contract that as few as possible workers from outside be brought into the area. An adequate local recruitment drive to the satisfaction of the project proponent must be launched in Oshakati and only if the necessary skills cannot be found, should external recruitment be allowed. Monitoring and evaluation of this must form part of the EMP.

7.16.4 Significance after Mitigation Although HIV/AIDS awareness raising is generally mainstreamed throughout all projects and activities in Namibia, the extent to which it is successful is uncertain and has not been shown. However, the infection rate is generally decreasing and it can therefore be assumed that general awareness raising does contribute to slowing down the infection rate of the disease. Implementation of the mitigation measures is therefore likely to reduce the probability of an increase in the infection rate form highly probable to a low probability while the other indicators remain the same.

 Significance Rating during Construction after Mitigation:

Severity / Reversibility Duration Spatial extent Probability magnitude 5 – Very high 5 – Irreversible 5 – Permanent 2 – Local 2 – Low

The overall significance of the operational phase impacts are calculated to be 34 {(5+5+5+2)x2} which is a negative impact of medium significance. A summary of the impact is provided below.

Table 7-17: Summary of Impact Assessment – Spread of HIV/AIDS and other STD’s

DURING CONSTRUCTION DURING OPERATION

SEVERITY/MAGNITUDE Very High n/a

REVERSABILITY Irreversible n/a

DURATION Permanent n/a

SPATIAL EXTENT Local n/a

PROBABILITY High n/a

STATUS (+ OR -) Negative n/a

SIGNIFICANCE (NO High n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

MITIGATION Yes – HIV/AIDS n/a ACCEPTABLE/PRACTICAL awareness campaigns amongst workers and community, local recruitment and involvement of traditional leaders.

SIGNIFICANCE (WITH Medium n/a MITIGATION/ENHANCEMENT)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL High n/a

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8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Through the course of this assessment, 10 negative social impacts were identified. These are:

 Relocation, compensation and resettlement as a result of the footprint of the dike and associated infrastructure.

 Loss of land and livelihoods, especially on the poor and vulnerable.

 Additional flooding as a result of the Backwater effect of the dike.

 Safety risk of injury and drowning tom people and livestock.

 Safety risk of construction machinery and excavation to people and livestock

 Dust and Noise disturbance.

 Barrier effect of the dike and channels.

 Health impacts of stagnant water in channels.

 Destruction of grave and cultural sites.

 Increase in the spread of HIV/AIDS and other STDs.

Out of these ten impacts, the following were rated of high significance prior to mitigation:

 Relocation, compensation and resettlement as a result of the footprint of the dike and associated infrastructure.

 Loss of land and livelihoods, especially on the poor and vulnerable.

 Increase in the spread of HIV/AIDS and other STDs.

For each of these impacts, inclusive of those rated as of medium significance, suitable mitigation measures are proposed which, to a large extent will be able to mitigate these impacts to acceptable levels. The significance levels after mitigation are also provided for each impact. The mitigation measures include fair and just

101 compensation, particular attention to poor and vulnerable households, and measures to curb the increase in the spread of the HIV pandemic.

It is also regarded as important that a suitable maintenance plan be developed to ensure that the dike and channels are maintained properly to prevent potential dike failure and to ensure that siltation do not lead to a more severe backwater effect than expected. Also, the internal stormwater system to be installed needs to be maintained to maintain the benefits likely to result from such an investment.

Positive impacts of high significance include:

 Flood protection for the area within the dike system.

 Reclamation of low lying land for urban development which facilitates a more integrated urban form and will facilitate the gradual implementation of the concept master plan.

 Improved ability to manage the sanitation system inside the town in the absence of seasonal flooding.

Again, suitable enhancement measures were identified to maximise the benefit obtainable from these positive impacts.

In conclusion, the assessment found no fatal flaws from a socio – economic point of view. Although there will be people who bear the brunt of the “Cost” of the proposed project, they will be fairly compensated while many more people as well as the economy of Oshakati will benefit from it.

102

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Shilunga, O, interview by Ernst Simon. People displaced during the 2008 - 2012 floods (February 10, 2012).