OPERATION UNTHINKABLE QMUNi 2017 DEAR DELEGATES Welcome to Operation Unthinkable! My name is Desmond Barton and I am in my third year at Queen’s studying politics and global development. I first became involved with MUN last year with the Queen’s Model United Nations Team, and am excited to be directing my first Crisis! The original Operation Unthinkable refers to the code word for Allied plans against the Soviet Union, drafted at the end of World War II. In this committee, delegates will represent the three major powers of the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Soviet Union, staring down a world that is now forever changed. Diplomacy is the name of the game – each side has its desired outcome, but none of these align entirely. One thing is clear: further loss of life must be prevented at all costs. Following the atrocities of World War II, no one is prepared to enter a protracted military conflict that will surely claim the lives of thousands, if not more. As delegates, your role is to shape the relations between your three states that will now take hold. Compromises must be made, and all delegates must be willing to work either opposing bloc. It is my hope that you will find this committee memorable and engaging. It is my pleasure to welcome you to QMUNi 2017! Sincerely, Desmond Barton Crisis Director 1 INTRODUCTION It is May 2nd, 1945. As these documents reach you, the war in Europe is essentially at a close. After two weeks of grueling urban warfare, Berlin, the heart of Nazi Germany, has fallen to The Red Army. German troops and civilians who were not slaughtered in the fighting now flee to surrender to the advancing Allied Expeditionary Forces in the west. They are well aware that The Red Army’s wrath will leave no man, woman, or child untouched as retribution for the tens of millions of Soviet civilians slaughtered by the Wehrmacht and Waffen SS just years prior. Despite the current lack of an official surrender from the remaining political and military figureheads of Hitler’s Third Reich, they are no longer a concern. While the Western Allied powers, the United States and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, seek to establish the conditions and territorial boundaries set at the Yalta Conference just a few months earlier, the USSR has other objectives in mind. Despite their shared objectives for the future of Europe, tensions arise between the Western powers as the age of Pax Britannia is on the decline in the face a new age of Pax Americana. As the delegates representing your respective states in this conference, it is your duty to navigate the intricacies of your similar and competing objectives via the diplomatic tools at your disposal. However, each state must be prepared to resort to force in defense of their objectives. The fate of Europe rests in your hands; will you manage to resolve your differences or will irreconcilable ideologies once again condemn Europe to the horrors of war? The choice is yours. 2 THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND “God and my right” British Political Situation and Concerns Decline of Pax Britannia Despite the failure of former Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement and the brief instability his resignation created, Winston Churchill provided exemplary leadership in the face of circumstances that required no less. Working tirelessly with his war ministry, Churchill and his colleagues succeeded in retaining domestic stability even during such events as The Blitz. Despite this domestic stability within the United Kingdom and the eventual victory of the Allies over Nazi Germany, the effects of The Second World War on The United Kingdom and the total Commonwealth had great ramifications for the British Empire's’ status as the global hegemonic power. As the British came to rely increasingly on American industry, agriculture, and financial loans to pay the expenses of the war effort, gradually this improved the United States ability to project its power and influence on a global scale. Allied institutions such as the Supreme Headquarters Allied Expeditionary Force were structured in such a way that reflected the new reality of American influence. Despite the good intentions of the United States, they are a relatively young state; not yet properly tested in matters of subtle global diplomacy and maintenance of global order as the British Empire is. Thus it is not only in the 3 best interest of the United Kingdom to ensure the continuation of Pax Britannia, but also in the best interest of all. Soviet Threat to the Balance of Power Within Europe Just three months ago at the Yalta Conference, the British delegation, led by Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden, pushed for the recognition of the necessity of free elections and democratic institutions in Eastern and Central Europe. In direct contrast, the Soviet delegation demanded that Eastern and Central Europe be established as a Soviet sphere of political influence. Despite the conference concluding with the Soviet delegation agreeing to these terms as well as the provision of free elections in Soviet-occupied Poland, their duplicitous nature is not to be underestimated. In just the few short months that have passed, such incidents as Polish political opposition members being arrested in Soviet-occupied Poland indicates the Soviets will not hold true to their word. As the Soviet troops currently present an overwhelming influence in states such as Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, we must tread carefully in asserting the right of Central and Eastern Europe to free and unfettered democracy lest we unwillingly condemn them to permanent Soviet occupation. If our diplomacy fails and conflict comes yet again to a head, the pure numerical superiority of the Red Army will surely grant them an advantage. British Economic Situation and Concerns Weak Economy and Damaged Infrastructure Once the leading global economic power, the war effort has sapped our nation of its economic prowess. With immeasurable damage inflicted upon valuable infrastructure throughout The Blitz, a number of key facilities necessary production in the cities of London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Glasgow, and Hull remain ineffectual. It is of the utmost necessity that these factories be restored in the event of a revived conflict in Europe requiring continued construction of armaments, munitions, vehicles, and vessels. While we are 4 capable of repairing them ourselves, it would greatly expedite the process if we were able to come about an agreement with either the American or Soviet delegation regarding building materials. Keep in mind, however, that whatever efforts we put towards repairing these facilities will directly affect how many resources we can put to work regarding the re-establishment of reliance on domestic agriculture and food-stuffs. Lend-Lease Programs and Agriculture Through the Lend-Lease programs we signed with the United States under the tenure of their late-President Roosevelt, our war effort was provided with invaluable materials, weaponry, and food that we lacked or were incapable of efficiently producing at the time at the time; steel, oil, and a variety of warplanes and warships to name a few. In return, we provided them with valuable technologies and even the use of many of our military and naval bases. As the war in Europe has now come to an end, it would be wise to assume that the Americans will seek to eventually eliminate the programs all together. As such, it is within our best interest to ensure that these programs continue for as long as possible while we attempt to improve our domestic access to such materials. We must be wary, however, as whatever resources we put to use this access will impede our ability to rebuild domestic factories and infrastructure. 5 THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA “One out of many” American Political Situation and Concerns Rise of Pax Americana Ever since the conclusion of the First World War, The United States of America has gone to great lengths to pursue policies of isolationism. Yet our involvement in the Second World War has put an end to such policies. With the former global hegemonic power of the British Empire on the decline, our position upon the international stage has risen to challenge their status. Unscathed by the scourges of war, our economic, military, and political might is more than considerable. As we are the only Western democratic nation left fit to sustainably lead the recovery of Europe and the establishment of a democratic world order around economic ideals of free-trade, we must push to take our place as the new global hegemon to the benefit of all who pursue values of lasting peace, liberty, and democracy. However, we are not the only ones who wish to ensure the global success of our values. The USSR, despite their promises at the Yalta Conference, have made many an indication that their values will never be the same as ours. As such, we must not be afraid to assert ourselves in this conference lest we be perceived as weak. Establishment of a Free and Democratic Europe Undoubtedly it is within both the interests of ourselves and our British counterparts to ensure the establishment of democratic governments and free elections within Europe. However, while granting them the immediate right to self-determination is admirable, at this time there is too much risk involved in 6 such ventures. As such, it is within the best interest of all for our great nation to remain directly involved in the rebuilding of the political and economic institutions of the European states to ensure that they all embody values of liberty, democracy, and free-trade.