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Issue 182 September 6-18, 2010 Economic Research & Analysis Department LEBANON THIS WEEK In This Issue Charts of the Week Economic Indicators.....................1 Total Insurance Penetration in Arab Countries at end-2009 (% of GDP) Capital Markets............................1 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.8 Lebanon in the News....................2 2.5 Lebanon ranks 112th globally, 13th in 2.5 2.3 2.2 Arab region in credit ratings 2.0 2.0 Political tensions to affect growth, short- term challenge is to rollover maturing 1.5 1.2 Eurobonds 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 Draft budget for 2011 projects fiscal 0.6 0.5 deficit at 27% of expenditures and 8.6% 0.5 of GDP 0.0 Balance of payments posts surplus of $2.3bn in first 7 months of 2010 UAE Egypt Qatar Jordan Oman Kuwait Coincident Indicator up 13.4% year-on- Lebanon Morocco Bahrain Tunisia Algeria year in July 2010 Saudi Arabia Lebanon ranks 92nd globally, 12th Total Insurance Penetration in Lebanon (% of GDP) among Arab countries in global competi- 3.5 tiveness Lebanese banks to comply with new sanctions on Iran 3.04 3.11 3.0 Lebanon ranks 9th in Arab world in con- 2.86 nectivity 2.92 2.94 Construction permits up 48% in first 7 months of 2010 2.63 2.5 2.56 Launch of Lebanese-Mexican Business Council Net public debt at $44.3bn at end-July 2010 2.0 Airport passengers up 11% in first 8 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 months of 2010 Source: Swiss Re, Byblos Reserach Corporate Highlights ...................6 MEA's IPO indefinitely postponed Quote to Note BLC Bank acquires 10% stake in USB Bank "The current rapid growth, low global interest rates, and abundant liquidity in the Lebanese banking system are unlikely to persist over the medium term." BLOM Bank splits shares 10-for-1 Bank of Beirut to issue preferred shares The Institute of International Finance, on the need to rapidly implement struc tural reforms given the limited window of opportunity available to authorities Kafalat loan guarantees reach $114m in first 8 months of 2010 Commercial banks' assets reach $124bn at end-July 2010 Number of the Week Bank Audi to issue common shares, raise 82%: Percentage of Lebanese students and fresh graduates who are satisfied with the capital quality of their university education, the highest level in the Arab world, according to a survey conducted by job portal Bayt.com Risk Outlook..............................9 Economic Indicators $m (unless otherwise mentioned) 2008 July 09 2009 May 10 June 10 July 10 % Change* Exports 3,478 230 3,486 371 385 303 31.74 Imports 16,133 1,470 16,241 1,369 1,449 1,850 25.85 Trade Balance (12,655) (1,240) (12,755) (998) (1,064) (1,547) 24.76 Balance of Payments 3,462 1,246 7,899 (195) 106 994 (20.22) Checks Cleared in LBP 9,350 1,028 11,122 1,068 1,674 1,783 73.44 Checks Cleared in FC 43,174 4,115 45,270 4,677 4,609 4,898 19.03 Total Checks Cleared 52,524 5,143 56,392 5,745 6,283 6,681 29.90 Budget Deficit/Surplus (2,921) (157) (2,960) (183) (52) (272) 73.25 Primary Balance 597 136 1,078 137 279 94 (30.88) Airport Passengers 4,085,334 621,522 4,986,544 420,212 497,647 684,084 10.07 $bn (unless otherwise mentioned) Dec 2008 July 09 Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 % Change* BdL FX Reserves 17.06 22.01 27.32 27.32 27.42 27.93 26.90 In months of Imports 15.03 14.97 19.84 19.96 18.92 15.1 0.87 Public Debt 47.02 47.92 51.49 51.07 51.00 50.77 5.95 Net Public Debt 41.49 43.05 44.34 44.24 44.13 44.3 2.90 Bank Assets 94.25 105.38 120.64 120.69 121.68 127.05 17.72 Bank Deposits (Private Sector) 77.78 87.69 99.13 99.21 100.12 101.93 16.24 Bank Loans to Private Sector 25.04 26.98 31.04 31.44 31.71 32.86 21.79 Money Supply M2 24.76 30.11 36.72 37.43 38.02 38.24 27.33 Money Supply M3 68.66 76.17 85.75 86.04 86.74 88.1 15.66 LBP Lending Rate (%) 9.95 9.43 8.48 8.47 8.37 8.09 (134b.p.) LBP Deposit Rate (%) 7.22 7.02 6.00 5.93 5.83 5.79 (123b.p.) USD Lending Rate (%) 7.47 7.24 7.10 7.10 7.03 7.05 (19b.p.) USD Deposit Rate (%) 3.33 3.19 2.84 2.84 2.75 2.8 (39b.p.) %* Change in CPI** 6.36 2.42 6.55 6.51 7.42 6.41 399b.p. * Year-on-Year; ** Consumer Price Index Note: b.p. i.e. basis point Sources: ABL, BdL Capital Markets Most Traded Last Price % Change* Total Weight in Sovereign Coupon Mid Price Mid Yield Stocks on BSE ($) Volume Market Eurobonds % $ % Capitalization Solidere "A" 19.20 (3.81) 76,759 15.51% Nov. 2010 6.875 101.19 -1.25 Solidere "B" 19.55 (0.56) 19,115 10.26% May 2011 7.875 103.88 1.96 Byblos Common 1.78 0.00 229,023 5.17% Mar. 2012 7.500 106.50 3.00 Byblos Priority 1.80 (0.55) 34,302 2.99% Sep. 2012 7.750 108.88 3.05 Byblos Pref. 08 100.10 0.00 0.00 1.62% June 2013 8.625 112.75 3.68 BLOM GDR 94.75 0.26 500 5.65% Apr. 2015 10.000 121.13 4.79 BLOM Listed 85.95 (0.06) 1,163 14.92% Jan. 2016 8.500 116.00 5.02 Audi GDR 8.90 (1.00) 15,000 7.31% May 2016 11.625 130.75 5.22 Audi Listed 8.01 0.12 536,019 22.26% Mar. 2017 9.000 120.25 5.28 HOLCIM 13.29 2.39 7,542 2.09% Apr. 2021 8.250 116.38 6.11 Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE); *Week-on-week Source: Byblos Capital Markets Dec Sep. 13-17, 10 Sep. 6-9, 10 % Change August 2010 August 2009 % Change Total Shares Traded 1,558,781 256,599 507.48 2,924,222 3,835,239 (23.75) Total Value Traded $20,454,706 $3,070,944 566.07 $35,867,053 $61,835,814 (42.00) Market Capitalization $12.38bn $12.46bn (0.62) $12.19bn $11.04bn 10.37 Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) LEBANON THIS WEEK September 6-18, 2010 1 Lebanon in the News Lebanon ranks 112th globally, 13th in Arab region in credit ratings In its annual survey on the creditworthiness of 178 countries, Institutional Arab Countries Rankings & Scores Investor magazine ranked Lebanon in 112th place worldwide and in 13th place Credit Arab Global among 19 Arab countries in the 2010 survey. Lebanon ranked in 116th place Country Rating Rank Rank globally and in 14th place regionally in 2009 and came in 113th place globally Qatar 79.5 1 24 and 14th regionally in the 2008 survey. Also, Lebanon came in 31st place Bahrain 77.9 2 25 among 37 upper middle income countries (UMICs) included in the survey com- Kuwait 76.9 3 28 pared to 29th place in 2009. The survey rates the creditworthiness of countries Saudi Arabia 74.1 4 32 on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 representing countries with the least chance of Oman 71.6 5 34 debt default. The ratings are based on input provided by senior economists and UAE 71.0 6 37 sovereign risk analysts at leading global banks and money management and Tunisia 58.5 7 55 securities firms. Algeria 56.3 8 59 Morocco 55.2 9 63 On a global basis, Lebanon ranked ahead of Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bangladesh Libya 53.7 10 69 and Iran, and came immediately behind Grenada, Tonga and Georgia. Also, Egypt 51.0 11 73 Lebanon ranked ahead of Bosnia & Herzegovina, Jamaica and Belarus, and Jordan 45.8 12 78 came behind Grenada, Argentina and Venezuela among UMICs. Lebanon's rank Lebanon 32.5 13 112 improved by 4 spots from the previous survey, constituting the 46th best Syria 28.6 14 131 improvement in the ranking globally and the fifth best regionally. Lebanon Iraq 26.6 15 136 received a score of 32.5 points, below the global average of 46.2 points as well Djibouti 25.0 16 142 as lower than the Arab average of 49.6 points and the UMICs' average of 47.2 Yemen 24.8 17 144 points. Its score improved by 3.1 points, or 10.5%, year-on-year, constituting Mauritania 21.4 18 156 the third best improvement in the Arab region both numerically and in percent- Sudan 12.1 19 172 age terms. Lebanon was one of nine Arab countries whose score improved by Source: Institutional Investor, Byblos Research one or more points, the amount considered statistically significant for a country. The rankings of 12 Arab countries improved and 7 regressed, while the scores of 14 countries improved and 5 declined from September 2009. The survey said the global financial crisis and its aftermath have shifted considerably conventional notions about sovereign creditwor- thiness, as many countries n Western Europe, a region that has been traditionally home to some of the soundest credits in the world, have seen their standing fall over the last year because of their mounting debt problems.
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