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Lebanon Weekly Monitor

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Lebanon Weekly Monitor LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR NOVEMBER 16 - NOVEMBER 22, 2020 WEEK 47 CONTACTS Economy ____________________________________________________________________________ Treasury & Capital Markets p.2 A 14% DECLINE IN TOTAL FISCAL DEFICIT OVER THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS, WHILE PRIMARY BALANCE SHIFTS FROM SURPLUS TO DEFICIT Bechara Serhal The public finance figures for the first eight months of 2020 suggest that both public revenues and public (961-1) 977421 [email protected] expenditures were down by double-digit contractions, generating a net decline in fiscal deficit, though the primary balance shifts from surplus to deficit. Private Banking Also in this issue Toufic Aouad p.3 Merchandise at the Port of Beirut down by 36% in first ten months of 2020 (961-1) 954922 [email protected] p.4 Gross public debt at US$ 94.8 billion at end-September 2020 p.4 Value of cleared checks almost stagnating in first ten months of 2020 Corporate Banking Bassima Jamaleddine Harb Surveys (961-1) 964764 ____________________________________________________________________________ [email protected] p.5 LEBANON RANKS 105TH GLOBALLY IN THE LEGATUM PROSPERITY INDEX 2020 The Legatum Institute released it 2020 Prosperity Index in which Lebanon ranked 105th globally down from its 104th position in 2019. The country took over the tenth position in the Arab MENA region. Also in this issue p.6 Household spending in Lebanon to begin a muted recovery in 2021, as per Fitch Solutions Corporate News ____________________________________________________________________________ p.7 BANK AUDI’S TOTAL ASSETS AT US$ 35.2 BILLION AT END-SEPTEMBER 2020 Bank Audi announced null net profits in both the first three quarters of 2019 and 2020, as the management resolved to allocate all profits to expected loss allowances until the dissipation of RESEARCH uncertainties, according to its latest release. Marwan Barakat Also in this issue (961-1) 977409 p.8 BLC Bank’s net profits at US$ 16.7 million in first three quarters of 2020 [email protected] p.8 Newly registered cars at a mere 5,467 in first ten months of 2020, down by a yearly 73.7% Jamil Naayem (961-1) 977406 Markets In Brief [email protected] ____________________________________________________________________________ p.9 MARKETS IN BRIEF: US DOLLAR SURPASSES LP 8,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE PM- Salma Saad Baba DESIGNATION (961-1) 977346 With the Cabinet formation process becoming stalled and on talks about possible new US sanctions coming [email protected] underway and while subsidy reductions loom, Lebanon’s capital markets saw this week a further drop in the Lebanese pound against the US dollar on the black FX market, and price declines on the equity and bond Fadi Kanso markets. In details, the US dollar crossed the LP 8,000 threshold for the first time in over a month, reaching LP/US$ (961-1) 977470 8,200-LP/US$ 8,250 on Friday amid a stubborn cabinet gridlock. In parallel, the Eurobond market saw across-the- [email protected] board price contractions of up to 0.25 pt week-on-week in the absence of a cabinet breakthrough. Accordingly, bond prices ranged between 13.50 cents per US dollar and 16.25 cents per US dollar at the end of this week. Farah Nahlawi On the equity market, the BSE total turnover rose from US$ 2.9 million last week to US$ 3.6 million this week, up (961-1) 959747 by 25%, while the price index declined by 1.7%. [email protected] LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK OF NOVEMBER 16 - NOVEMBER 22, 2020 Money Market BSE Equity Market LP Tbs Market Eurobond Market ⬇ LP Exchange Market CDS Market - ⬌⬇ ⬇ ⬇ Week 47 November 16 - November 22, 2020 1 Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected] NOVEMBER 16 - NOVEMBER 22, 2020 WEEK 47 ECONOMY ______________________________________________________________________________ A 14% DECLINE IN TOTAL FISCAL DEFICIT OVER THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS, WHILE PRIMARY BALANCE SHIFTS FROM SURPLUS TO DEFICIT The public finance figures for the first eight months of 2020 suggest that both public revenues and public expenditures were down by double-digit contractions, generating a net decline in fiscal deficit, though the primary balance shifts from surplus to deficit. As a matter of fact, total public expenditures were down by 18.5% over the first eight months of the year, while total public revenues were down by 20.2% over the period, generating a 14.1% contraction in total fiscal deficit. Public expenditures were actually down by LP 2,979 billion, moving from LP 16,062 billion in the first eight months of 2019 to LP 13,083 billion in the first eight months of 2020. The retreat in public spending is mainly tied to the decline in interest payments primarily due to the State’s default in March of this year. In fact, debt service was down by a yearly 59.0% in the first eight months of 2020, moving from LP 4,917 billion to LP 1,973 billion, with interest payment on foreign currency debt down by 88.3% and interest payment on domestic debt down by 28.2% year-on- year. Treasury Transfers to EDL were also down by 37.0% year-on-year in the first eight-month period amid the significant decline in oil prices. Public revenues were down by LP 2,351 billion, moving from LP 11,613 billion to LP 9,262 billion between the two periods. The retreat in total revenues is mainly tied to the decline in budget revenues by LP 2,975 billion, while Treasury revenues increased by LP 623 billion over the period. In turn, the significant decline in budget revenues is related to the prevailing macro sluggishness as a result of the prevailing economic crisis, the spillover effects of the Corona Pandemic and the drastic drop in imports amid weakened domestic consumption and investment demand. It is worth mentioning that custom revenues were down by 34.5%, VAT revenues were down by 49.7% and Telecom revenues were down by 56.5%. Paradoxically, property taxes were up by 85..6% year-on-year as a result of significant property transactions within the context of investors fleeing to real estate to escape any haircut on their financial investments. The more significant absolute drop in public spending relative to public revenues lead to small savings in the overall public finance deficit. As a matter of fact, the 2020 first eight-month deficit amounted to LP 3,821 billion, against LP 4,449 billion over the same period in 2019. However, as a percentage of public spending, fiscal deficit rose from 27.7% to 29.2%, with an even more significant rise relative to GDP that is believed to have significantly contracted this year. When looking at the primary balance, the primary surplus of LP 556 billion over the first eight months of 2019 (the equivalent of 3.5% of expenditures) turned into a primary deficit of LP 1,713 billion over the first eight months of 2020 (the equivalent of 13.1% of expenditures), highlighting the unsustainable nature of public finances that require a significant deal of fiscal adjustment to avoid further monetary drift looking forward. SUMMARY OF FISCAL PERFORMANCE (US$ million) 8M-19 8M-20 Var 8M/8M 1. Budget Transactions 1.1 Revenues 7,362 5,389 -26.8% 1.1.1 Tax Revenues 6,103 4,590 -24.8% 1.1.2 Non Tax Revenues 1,259 798 -36.6% 1.2 Expenditures 9,862 7,648 -22.4% 1.2.1 General Expenditures 6,542 6,250 -4.5% 1.2.2 Interest payments 3,195 1,309 -59.0% 2. Treasury Transactions 3. Total public revenues 7,704 6,144 -20.2% 4. Total public expenditures 10,655 8,679 -18.5% 5. Total Cash Deficit / Surplus -2,951 -2,535 -14.1% 6. Total Primary Deficit / Surplus 369 -1,136 - Sources: Ministry of Finance, Bank Audi's Group Research Department Week 47 November 16 - November 22, 2020 2 NOVEMBER 16 - NOVEMBER 22, 2020 WEEK 47 ________________________________________________________________________ MERCHANDISE AT THE PORT OF BEIRUT DOWN BY 36% IN FIRST TEN MONTHS OF 2020 As per the latest statistics released by the Port of Beirut, the number of containers recorded an annual drop of 42.2% to attain a total of 373,737 in the first ten months of 2020, while the number of ships posted a decline of 23.2% year-on-year to reach a total of 1,153 vessels over the same period. In parallel, the quantity of goods fell by a yearly 35.9% to 3,684 thousand tons in the first ten months of 2020, while transshipments contracted by 34.3% year-on-year to attain 275,837 containers, following a rise of 14.9% in the corresponding period of 2019. As such, the Port’s revenues reached US$ 92.4 million in the first ten months of 2020, which reveals a net decline of a yearly 44.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. It is worth mentioning that the enormous explosion in the Port on the 4th of August, which inflicted huge damages with its silos and containers, worsened further the sharp slowdown in the activity of the Port of Beirut since the beginning of the year. ACTIVITY OF THE PORT OF BEIRUT (000s) Number of ships and merchandise tonnage 1,964 1,936 2,000 1,857 1,688 8,000 7,343 7,107 1,5186,921 6,803 6,633 1,5007,000 - 78.4% 6,000 5,748 5,000 1,000 924 4,000 3,684 3,000 500 2,000 1,658 1,477 1,712 1,580 1,580 1,502 2001,153 1,000 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1-19 H1-20 10M-14 10M-15 10M-16 10M-17 10M-18 10M-19 10M-20 Number of ships Merchandise tonnage (000s of tons) Sources: Port of Beirut, Bank Audi's Group Research Department ACTIVITY OF THE PORT OF BEIRUT Number of containers and total revenues 800 709 743 728 700 640 656 646 600 500 400 374 300 179.5 199.3 199.1 197.6 195.0 200 166.5 92.4 100 0 10M-14 10M-15 10M-16 10M-17 10M-18 10M-19 10M-20 Number of containers (000s) Total revenues (US$ million) Sources: Port of Beirut, Bank Audi's Group Research Department Week 47 November 16 - November 22, 2020 3 NOVEMBER 16 - NOVEMBER 22, 2020 WEEK 47 _____________________________________________________________________________ GROSS PUBLIC DEBT AT US$ 94.8 BILLION AT END-SEPTEMBER 2020 Lebanon’s gross debt reached US$ 94.8 billion at end-September 2020, up by 9.3% from the level seen at end-September 2019 and up by 3.5% from end-2019, as per the data published by the Ministry of Finance.
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