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Lebanon This Week Issue 614 | January 6-11, 2020 Economic Research & Analysis Department LEBANON THIS WEEK In This Issue Charts of the Week Economic Indicators...........................1 Capital Markets..................................1 Stock Market Capitalization in Select Arab Countries at end-2019 (% of GDP) Lebanon in the News..........................2 Real GDP growth rate at 0.9% in 2017 and -1.9% in 2018 according to national accounts Association of banks reduces by 104 basis points reference rates on US dollar and Lebanese pound lending Number of airport passengers down by 1.8% in 2019 Finance Ministry takes measures related to ownership of bearer shares and “shares to order” Broad money supply down 3.4% in first 11 months of 2019 Management of mobile networks reverts to the State Number of real estate transactions down 17% in 2019 Schools receive European Union grant to in- Stock Market Capitalization in Lebanon (% of GDP) troduce energy efficiency Lebanon ranks 68th globally, seventh among Arab countries in electronic commerce Compensation of public-sector personnel at $5.4bn in first 10 months of 2019, absorbs 58% of revenues Lebanon ranks 87th globally, ninth among Arab countries in terms of well-being New industrial licenses down 57% in first half of 2019 Corporate Highlights .......................7 Foreign investments of financial sector at $3.3bn at end-March 2019 *latest available market capitalization figure BLC Bank's net earnings at $15.5m in first Source: Byblos Bank, Local Stock Exchanges, Institute of International Finance, International nine months of 2019 Monetary Fund Bank of Beirut's net income at $118m in first nine months of 2019 Quote to Note Banque BEMO's net earnings at $13m in first nine months of 2019 ''There is an urgent need for the adoption of a substantial, credible and comprehensive Burgan Insurance's net income at $0.3m in policy package of economic reforms to restore fiscal balance and financial stability and 2018 address long-lasting structural deficiencies in the Lebanese economy.'' The International Support Group for Lebanon, on the necessity to have a func- Ratio Highlights................................9 tioning government in place as soon as possible Risk Outlook ....................................9 Ratings & Outlook............................9 Number of the Week 59%: Percentage of Lebanese adults who have a formal account at a regulated financial institution, according to Banque du Liban’s 2018 Financial Inclusion Survey Lebanon in the News $m (unless otherwise mentioned) 2018 Jan-Oct 2018 Jan-Oct 2019 % Change* Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19 Exports 2,952 2,464 3,098 25.76 265 342 292 Imports 19,980 16,874 16,612 (1.55) 1,718 1,466 1,308 Trade Balance (17,028) (14,410) (13,514) (6.22) (1,454) (1,124) (1,016) Balance of Payments (4,823) (3,122) (4,653) 49.06 (1,810) (59) (198) Checks Cleared in LBP 22,133 18,235 17,511 (3.97) 2,064 2,060 1,378 Checks Cleared in FC 44,436 37,500 27,982 (25.38) 4,017 2,940 1,717 Total Checks Cleared 66,569 55,735 45,493 (18.38) 6,081 5,000 3,095 Fiscal Deficit/Surplus (6,246) (4,734) (4,024) (14.99) (226) (640) (432) Primary Balance (636) (402) 217 - 189 (171) 21 Airport Passengers 8,842,442 7,536,392 7,701,296 2.19 684,617 818,339 659,737 Consumer Price Index** 6.1 6.3 2.5 (380bps) 6.3 1.1 1.3 $bn (unless otherwise mentioned) Dec-17 Oct-18 Dec-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 % Change* BdL FX Reserves 35.81 34.62 32.51 30.60 29.30 30.98 (10.51) In months of Imports 18.57 20.15 20.72 20.35 19.99 23.68 17.54 Public Debt 79.53 84.04 85.14 86.29 86.78 87.08 3.62 Bank Assets 219.86 242.61 249.48 261.90 262.20 262.80 8.32 Bank Deposits (Private Sector) 168.66 173.25 174.28 172.54 170.30 168.36 (2.82) Bank Loans to Private Sector 59.69 59.15 59.39 55.16 54.50 54.17 (8.43) Money Supply M2 52.51 52.06 50.96 48.52 46.73 45.77 (12.07) Money Supply M3 138.62 140.24 141.29 140.40 138.83 138.37 (1.33) LBP Lending Rate (%) 8.09 9.60 9.97 11.24 10.92 11.19 159bps LBP Deposit Rate (%) 6.41 7.74 8.30 8.95 9.13 9.03 129bps USD Lending Rate (%) 7.67 8.30 8.57 10.03 10.26 10.05 175bps USD Deposit Rate (%) 3.89 4.63 5.15 6.20 6.57 6.61 198bps *year-on-year **year-on-year percentage change; bps i.e. basis points Source: Association of Banks in Lebanon, Banque du Liban, Ministry of Finance, Central Administration of Statistics, Byblos Research Capital Markets Most Traded Last Price % Change* Total Weight in S overeign Coupon Mid Price Mid Yield Stocks on BSE ($) Volume Market Eurobonds % $ % Capitalization Solidere "A" 8.42 23.64 486,946 11.49% Mar 2020 6.38 87.13 101.47 Solidere "B" 8.40 24.44 227,000 7.45% Apr 2021 8.25 55.88 65.02 Byblos Common 1.00 0.00 7,000 7.72% Oct 2022 6.10 47.50 39.08 HOLCIM 10.00 2.56 2,000 2.66% Jun 2025 6.25 43.63 26.38 Audi GDR 2.30 (34.84) 1,000 3.76% Nov 2026 6.60 43.63 23.53 Byblos Pref. 08 60.00 0.00 500 1.64% Feb 2030 6.65 43.50 19.75 Audi Listed 2.30 (34.29) 215 12.55% Apr 2031 7.00 43.38 19.65 BLOM GDR 6.07 0.00 - 6.12% May 2033 8.20 45.39 20.09 BLOM Listed 7.07 0.00 - 20.75% Nov 2035 7.05 43.50 17.86 Byblos Pref. 09 63.00 0.00 - 1.72% Mar 2037 7.25 43.88 17.79 Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE); *week-on-week Source: Byblos Bank Capital Markets, Refinitiv Jan 6-10 Dec 30 - Jan 3 % Change December 2019 December 2018 % Change Total shares traded 745,941 167,139 346.3 1,527,358 5,407,192 (71.8) Total value traded $5,715,028 $2,125,346 168.9 $24,640,092 $27,863,342 (11.6) Market capitalization $7.33bn $7.68bn (4.54) $7.76bn $9.68bn (19.8) Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) CDS Lebanon Jan 3, 2020 Jan 10, 2020 % Change** CDX EM 30* Jan 3, 2020 Jan 10, 2020 % Change*** CDS 1-year* 7,413 7,597 2.5 CDS 5-year** 172.5 169.6 (1.7) CDS 3-year* 4,756 4,867 2.3 Source: ICE CMA; * CDX Emerging Market CDS Index-Series 30 CDS 5-year* 3,684 3,773 2.4 **mid-spread in bps ***week-on-week Source: ICE CMA; *mid-spread in bps **week-on-week LEBANON THIS WEEK January 6-11, 2020 1 Lebanon in the News Real GDP growth rate at 0.9% in 2017 and -1.9% in 2018 ac- cording to national accounts The Central Administration for Statistics (CAS) released national eco- Real GDP Growth in Lebanon (%) nomic data that covers official figures for gross domestic product (GDP) and its structure and components for 2018, and revised its previous figures for the 2004-17 period. The CAS indicated that its national accounts fig- ures include the informal sector that it estimated at around 30% of recorded output, even though the precise level is uncertain. It noted that it could not produce a full set of sectoral accounts, especially for the households and non-financial corporate sectors, given the limited amount of data on incomes. Further, the CAS stated that its estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty. It added that the uncertainty derives from the lack of regular surveys and detailed data on the cost of production, consumer spending, employment, visitors' expenditures and other trans- actions. It cautioned that its figures are not as accurate as national ac- counts are supposed to be. The CAS estimated that Lebanon's real GDP growth contracted by 1.9% in 2018, while it raised the real GDP growth Source: Central Administration of Statistics rate for 2017 to 0.9% from 0.6% previously. Lebanon's nominal GDP stood at $55bn in 2018 relative to $53.1bn in 2017. Also, aggregate consumption spending reached $58.2bn in 2018, up from $54.8bn in 2017. It consisted of $49.8bn in household expenditures and $8.4bn in government spending. Further, the pri- vate sector's gross fixed capital formation reached $10.1bn, while it totaled $990.3m for the public sector in 2018. The results show that public consumption increased by 6.7% in real terms in 2018, while private consumption contracted by 1.3% year-on-year. Further, gross fixed capital formation by the private sector regressed by 3.9% in real terms in 2018, while it expanded by 25.7% for the public sector, leading to an overall contraction of 1.8% in gross fixed capital formation during the year. Also, household consumption contributed 1.2 percentage points to the economic contraction in 2018, followed by the exports of goods and services (-1 percentage point), the imports of goods and services (-0.5 percentage points), and gross capital formation (-0.1 percentage points); while government consumption had a positive contribution of 0.9 percentage points to economic activity in 2018.
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