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Lebanon Weekly Monitor May 10 - May 16, 2021 Week 20

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Lebanon Weekly Monitor May 10 - May 16, 2021 Week 20 LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR MAY 10 - MAY 16, 2021 WEEK 20 CONTACTS Treasury & Capital Markets Economy ____________________________________________________________________________ Bechara Serhal p.2 MILD CONTRACTION IN DEPOSITS AND LOANS IN THE FIRST QUARTER AMID RISE IN (961-1) 977421 OFFSHORE LIQUIDITY [email protected] Financial sector figures for the first quarter 2021 show a continuing decline in deposits and loans though at a much less significant pace, a further contraction in interest rates along with a rise in banks’ Private Banking primary liquidity abroad. Toufic Aouad (961-1) 954922 Also in this issue [email protected] p.3 Gross public debt at US$ 97 billion at end-February 2021 p.4 Property market’s sales operations reported a hike of 52% in the first four months of 2021 Corporate Banking Carol Ayat Surveys (961-1) 959675 ____________________________________________________________________________ [email protected] p.5 LEBANON RANKS 98TH GLOBALLY IN THE 2020 POSITIVE PEACE INDEX Marketing and Communications The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) published its latest edition of the Positive Peace Report in which it ranked 163 independent nations and territories based on their level of positive peace. In the Jean Traboulsi 2020 index, Lebanon ranked 98th globally with a score of 3.29. (961- 1) 977350 [email protected] Also in this issue p.6 Fitch Solutions holds a bleak outlook for consumer spending over the medium term in Lebanon Corporate News ____________________________________________________________________________ p.7 BANK AUDI ISSUES ITS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR YEAR 2020 Bank Audi released its 2020 financial statements highlighting the persisting uncertainties arising from RESEARCH the lasting financial crisis for 16 months now, amid continuing absence of a clear national recovery plan. Marwan Barakat Also in this issue (961-1) 977409 [email protected] p.8 Byblos Bank’s total assets down to US$ 18 billion at end-March 2021 Salma Saad Baba Markets In Brief (961-1) 977346 ____________________________________________________________________________ [email protected] p.9 MARKETS IN BRIEF: STATUS-QUO MOOD GOVERNS BLACK FX MARKET AHEAD OF PLATFORM LAUNCHING Farah Nahlawi With BDL unveiling plans to start negotiating a new mechanism with Lebanese banks whereby they would (961-1) 959747 begin gradually paying off part of FC deposits dating back before October 17, 2021, and following the release [email protected] of a new intermediate circular covering the new FX platform while all eyes remained focused on the “prepaid subsidy card program and subsidy rationalization” draft law, a status-quo mood swayed over the black FX Zeina Labban (961-1) 952426 market ahead of Fitr holidays, while the equity market registered shy price retreats and the bond market [email protected] saw no price change week-on-week. In details, the BDL’s new initiative and circular left a mere impact on FX activity on the parallel market over this short week, with the LP/US$ exchange rate continuing to range Michele Sakha between LP/US$ 12,600 and LP/US$ 12,650. In parallel, the BSE posted shy price declines of 0.5% week-on- (961-1) 977102 week. This was coupled by reduced activity. On the bond market, the international demand observed over [email protected] the past four weeks came to a halt this week, which resulted into across-the-board stability in prices. LEBANON MARKETS: MAY 10 - MAY 16, 2021 Money Market BSE Equity Market LP Tbs Market Eurobond Market ⬇ LP Exchange Market CDS Market - ⬌⬆ Week 20 May 10 - May 16, 2021 ⬌ 1 Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon⬌ - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected] MAY 10 - MAY 16, 2021 WEEK 20 ECONOMY ______________________________________________________________________________ MILD CONTRACTION IN DEPOSITS AND LOANS IN THE FIRST QUARTER AMID RISE IN OFFSHORE LIQUIDITY Financial sector figures for the first quarter 2021 show a continuing decline in deposits and loans though at a much less significant pace, a further contraction in interest rates along with a rise in banks’ primary liquidity abroad. While bank assets almost stabilized year-to-date, customer deposits slightly contracted by US$ 2,191 million over the first three months of 2021 (against a much sharper contraction of US$ 9,273 million over the first three months of 2020) to reach a total deposit base of US$ 136.9 billion in March 2021, against US$ 139.1 billion at end-2020, US$ 158.9 billion at end-2019 and US$ 174.3 billion at end-2018. It is worth mentioning that FX deposits contracted by US$ 1,935 million over the first three-month period, while LL deposits declined by US$ 256 million. As such, deposit dollarization inched slightly downward to report 80.2% in March 2021, against 80.4% in December 2020. Loans to the private sector contracted by US$ 1,965 million over the first three months of 2021 (against a much more significant decline of US$ 4,754 million over the first three months of 2020) to reach a total lending base of US$ 34.2 billion in March 2021, against US$ 36.2 billion at end-2020, US$ 49.8 billion at end-2019 and US$ 59.4 billion at end-2018. It is worth mentioning that FX loans contracted by US$ 1,290 million over the 2021 first three-month period, while LL loans dropped by US$ 675 million. As such, loan dollarization continued its downward descent to report a low of 59.2% in March 2021. Interest rates continued their declining trend as well. The average US$ deposit rate reported 0.52% in March 2021, against 0.94% in December 2020 and a peak of 6.61% in October 2019. The average LL deposit rate reported 1.96% in March 2021, against 2.64% in December 2020 and a peak of 9.40% in November 2019. As to debtor rates, the average US$ loan rate reported 7.14% and the average LL loan rate reported 8.02% in March 2021. With respect to liquidity, Lebanese banks liquidity with foreign banks continued its recent ascent, in conformity with BDL circular 154, rising by US$ 173 million in the first quarter 2021 and accumulating a cumulative rise of US$ 504 million since October 2020. As to shareholders’ equity, it reported a total of US$ 16.9 billion at end-March 2021, against US$ 20.7 billion at end-March 2020. Despite banks’ efforts to increase capital as per BDL requirements, this equity contraction reflects the noticeable bank losses over the period amid significant provisioning needs at large. LEBANON'S BANKING ACTIVITY in millions of US$ 2019 2020 Q1-20 Q1-21 Var: Total assets -32,703 -28,739 -8,231 -1,780 % change in assets -13.1% -13.3% -3.8% -0.9% Var: Total deposits -15,418 -19,723 -9,273 -2,191 o.w. LP deposits -13,119 -10,772 -5,093 -256 o.w. FC deposits -2,299 -8,952 -4,180 -1,935 % change in total -8.8% -12.4% -5.8% -1.6% deposits Var: Total credits -9,617 -13,601 -4,754 -1,965 o.w. LP credits -2,710 -959 -404 -675 o.w. FC credits -6,907 -12,642 -4,350 -1,290 % change in total -16.2% -27.3% -9.6% -5.4% credits Source: BDL, Bank Audi's Group Research Department Week 20 May 10 - May 16, 2021 2 MAY 10 - MAY 16, 2021 WEEK 20 Finally, a continuation of the balance of payments deficit was reported to reach US$ 847 million in the first three months of 2021, against a deficit of US$ 1,062 million in the 2020 corresponding period. This year’s deficit is driven by a decline in net foreign assets of BDL by US$ 1,854 million, while banks’ net foreign assets rose by US$ 1,007 million over the 2021 three-month period. _____________________________________________________________________________ GROSS PUBLIC DEBT AT US$ 97 BILLION AT END-FEBRUARY 2021 The data published by the Ministry of Finance in Lebanon showed that the country’s gross debt reached US$ 96.8 billion at February 2021, up by 1.3% against end-2020. Domestic debt increased by 1.4% from end-2020 to reach a total of US$ 91.0 billion at February 2021. Lebanon’s external debt rose by 1.1% from end-2020 to stand at around US$ 36.5 billion at February 2021. In this context, the public sector deposits at the Central Bank was down negligibly from end-2020 to register US$ 4.5 billion at February 2021. The public sector deposits at commercial banks picked-up by 1.9% from end-2020 to register US$ 5.6 billion at Feb-2021. As such, net public debt, which excludes the public sector deposits at the Central Bank and commercial banks from overall debt figures, increased by 1.3% from end-2020 to reach a total of US$ 86.7 billion at Feb-2021. Net domestic debt amounted to US$ 50.3 billion at February 2021, up by 1.5% from end-2020. It is worth recalling that Lebanon has defaulted on its foreign currency debt in March 2020 for the first time in the country’s contemporary history. GROSS PUBLIC DEBT (US$ BILLION) 120.0 95.6 96.8 100.0 91.6 85.1 79.5 74.9 80.0 70.3 63.5 66.6 57.7 60.0 51.1 52.6 53.7 47.0 42.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 End-07 End-08 End-09 End-10 End-11 End-12 End-13 End-14 End-15 End-16 End-17 End-18 End-19 End-20 Feb-21 Sources: Ministry of Finance, Bank Audi's Group Research Department Week 20 May 10 - May 16, 2021 3 MAY 10 - MAY 16, 2021 WEEK 20 _____________________________________________________________________________ PROPERTY MARKET’S SALES OPERATIONS REPORTED A HIKE OF 52% IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2021 After the Lebanese real estate sector witnessed some stress during the first quarter of this year, figures have hiked in April revealing a positive performance as the sector is somewhat perceived as a safe haven after the economic and financial developments in the country.
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