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The New Arab Revolt Arab The New The New Arab Revolt: What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next sets the intellectual stage for understanding the revolutions in the Middle East. This collection brings together more than sixty articles, interviews, congressional testimony, and op-eds from experts and thought leaders, including Bernard Lewis, Fouad Ajami, Richard Haass, Lisa Anderson, Martin Indyk, Isobel Coleman, Aluf Benn, Dirk Vandewalle, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The volume includes seminal pieces from Foreign A airs, ForeignA airs. The com, and CFR.org. In addition, major public statements by Barack Obama, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hosni Mubarak, Muammar al-Qaddafi , and others are joined by Egyptian opposition writings and relevant primary source documents. Even if you have been paying close attention to the extraordinary events unfolding in the Middle East, this book pulls together what is needed New to understand the origins and signifi cance of the new Arab revolt, including a special introduction by Foreign A airs editor Gideon Rose. Cover photo: Asmaa Waguih/Courtesy of Reuters Arab Revolt What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next Price: U.S. $17.99 www.cfr.org www.ForeignA airs.org Option A: Horizontal lockup on binding The New Arab Revolt The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership orga- nization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, govern- ment officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cit- ies where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, www.cfr.org. The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors. For further information about CFR or this publication, please write to the Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065, or call Communications at 212.434.9888. Visit CFR’s website, www.cfr.org. Copyright © 2011 by the Council on Foreign Relations®, Inc., except for “Reflections on the Revolution in Egypt” © 2011 by Richard N. Haass; “Are the Mideast Revolutions Bad for Women’s Rights?” © 2011 by Isobel Coleman; “In Libya, How Obama Can End a Mission That Started Badly” © 2011 by Gideon Rose; “Will Libya Become Obama’s Iraq?” © 2011 by Meghan L. O’Sullivan; “Our Bargain With the New Gadhafi” © 2011 by Elliott Abrams; and “Qaddafi Must Go” © 2011 by Max Boot. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. This publication may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form beyond the repro- duction permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law Act (17 U.S.C. Sec- tions 107 and 108) and excerpts by reviewers for the public press, without express written permission from the Council on Foreign Relations. For information, write to the Publica- tions Office, Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065. Contents Regional Map xi Introduction—Gideon Rose xii The Past as Prologue The Sorrows of Egypt—Fouad Ajami 2 Foreign Affairs (September/October 1995) Back to the Bazaar—Martin Indyk 22 Foreign Affairs (January/February 2002) Freedom and Justice in the Modern Middle East —Bernard Lewis 38 Foreign Affairs (May/June 2005) Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition in Egypt—Steven A. Cook 57 Foreign Affairs (March/April 2009) Is El Baradei Egypt’s Hero? Mohamed El Baradei and the Chance for Reform—Steven A. Cook 68 ForeignAffairs.com (March 26, 2010) The Ice BreAkS UP Morning in Tunisia: The Frustrations of the Arab World Boil Over—Michele Penner Angrist 75 ForeignAffairs.com (January 16, 2011) [iii] Contents Letter From Cairo: The People’s Military in Egypt? —Eric Trager 81 ForeignAffairs.com (January 30, 2011) The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup: Washington’s Limited Options in Cairo—Steven A. Cook 86 ForeignAffairs.com (February 2, 2011) The Muslim Brotherhood After Mubarak: What the Brotherhood Is and How It Will Shape the Future—Carrie Rosefsky Wickham 91 ForeignAffairs.com (February 3, 2011) Egypt’s Democratic Mirage: How Cairo’s Authoritarian Regime Is Adapting to Preserve Itself—Joshua Stacher 98 ForeignAffairs.com (February 7, 2011) Overcoming Fear and Anxiety in Tel Aviv: How Israel Can Turn Egypt’s Unrest Into an Opportunity—Aluf Benn 104 ForeignAffairs.com (February 8, 2011) Mubarakism Without Mubarak: Why Egypt’s Military Will Not Embrace Democracy—Ellis Goldberg 110 ForeignAffairs.com (February 11, 2011) Reflections on the Revolution in Egypt —Richard N. Haass 115 Project Syndicate (February 13, 2011) Postcolonial Time Disorder: Egypt and the Middle East, Stuck in the Past—James D. Le Sueur 119 ForeignAffairs.com (February 14, 2011) [iv] Contents Egypt’s Constitutional Ghosts: Deciding the Terms of Cairo’s Democratic Transition—Nathan J. Brown 125 ForeignAffairs.com (February 15, 2011) A Tunisian Solution for Egypt’s Military: Why Egypt’s Military Will Not Be Able to Govern —Clement M. Henry and Robert Springborg 132 ForeignAffairs.com (February 21, 2011) The Fall of the Pharaoh: How Hosni Mubarak’s Reign Came to an End—Dina Shehata 137 Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011) The Black Swan of Cairo: How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous —Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth 149 Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011) The CrackS Spread Why Jordan is Not a Regional Domino —Robert Danin 161 CFR.org (February 1, 2011) Green Movement 2.0? How U.S. Support Could Lead the Opposition to Victory—Geneive Abdo 163 ForeignAffairs.com (February 18, 2011) Iran’s Protests and Economic Realities —Interview with Suzanne Maloney 168 CFR.org (February 22, 2011) The Arab Turmoil and Palestinians —Interview with Rashid I. Khalidi 175 CFR.org (February 25, 2011) [v] Contents Letter From Sana’a: Saleh on the Edge —Abdullah al-Qubati 182 ForeignAffairs.com (February 25, 2011) Bahrain’s Shia Question: What the United States Gets Wrong About Sectarianism—Kristin Smith Diwan 187 ForeignAffairs.com (March 2, 2011) Rage Comes to Baghdad: Will Iraq’s Recent Protests Lead to Revolt?—Raad Alkadiri 193 ForeignAffairs.com (March 3, 2011) The Sturdy House That Assad Built: Why Damascus Is Not Cairo—Michael Bröning 200 ForeignAffairs.com (March 7, 2011) Rageless in Riyadh: Why the Al Saud Dynasty Will Remain—F. Gregory Gause III 205 ForeignAffairs.com (March 16, 2011) Syria’s Assad No Longer in Vogue: What Everyone Got Wrong About Bashar al-Assad—Tony Badran 210 ForeignAffairs.com (March 25, 2011) Meanwhile in the Maghreb: Have Algeria and Morocco Avoided North Africa’s Unrest?—Azzedine Layachi 215 ForeignAffairs.com (March 31, 2011) Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases—Alexander Cooley and Daniel H. Nexon 221 ForeignAffairs.com (April 5, 2011) Let Them Eat Bread: How Food Subsidies Prevent (and Provoke) Revolutions in the Middle East —Annia Ciezadlo 229 ForeignAffairs.com (March 23, 2011) [vi] Contents Demographics of Arab Protests —Interview with Ragui Assaad 236 CFR.org (February 14, 2011) Are the Mideast Revolutions Bad for Women’s Rights? —Isobel Coleman 242 Washington Post (February 20, 2011) Intervention in Libya Our Bargain With the New Gadhafi—Elliott Abrams 248 Wall Street Journal (February 25, 2011) Libya’s Terra Incognita: Who and What Will Follow Qaddafi?—Frederic Wehrey 252 ForeignAffairs.com (February 28, 2011) What Intervention Looks Like: How the West Can Aid the Libyan Rebels—Robert E. Hunter 258 ForeignAffairs.com (March 16, 2011) The Folly of Protection: Is Intervention Against Qaddafi’s Regime Legal and Legitimate?—Michael W. Doyle 263 ForeignAffairs.com (March 20, 2011) To the Shores of Tripoli: Why Operation Odyssey Dawn Should Not Stop At Benghazi—Dirk Vandewalle 269 ForeignAffairs.com (March 21, 2011) A New Lease on Life for Humanitarianism: How Operation Odyssey Dawn Will Revive RtoP —Stewart Patrick 274 ForeignAffairs.com (March 24, 2011) [vii] Contents In Libya, How Obama Can End a Mission That Started Badly—Gideon Rose 279 Washington Post (March 25, 2011) The Mythology of Intervention: Debating the Lessons of History in Libya—Micah Zenko 284 ForeignAffairs.com (March 28, 2011) Flight of the Valkyries? What Gender Does and Doesn’t Tell Us About Operation Odyssey Dawn —Charli Carpenter 290 ForeignAffairs.com (March 28, 2011) Qaddafi Must Go—Max Boot 296 Weekly Standard (March 28, 2011) Winning Ugly in Libya: What the United States Should Learn from Its War in kosovo—Michael O’Hanlon 300 ForeignAffairs.com (March 30, 2011) Will Libya Become Obama’s Iraq? —Meghan L. O’Sullivan 306 Washington Post (April 1, 2011) Prepared Statement Before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate —Richard N.
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