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Abstract Title of Dissertation: SUSTAINING PRIVATIZATION Kumar V Pratap, Doctor of Philosophy, 2011 Dissertation directed by: Professor Carol Graham The Brookings Institution & University of Maryland This dissertation examines the factors associated with sustainable privatization of infrastructure projects. Privatization offers a way for governments to make infrastructure delivery more effective and efficient than exclusively public provision, but often the promise is fraught with peril. The three essays that constitute this dissertation seek to use empirical data and analysis to answer three selected questions regarding sustainable privatization: What causes the private sector to exit from infrastructure projects? Do Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) provide value for money to governments? Does privatization lead to benign outcomes? The first essay of this dissertation takes the broadest view, looking at cross-country, cross-sector regression analysis to unearth patterns in infrastructure privatization failures - with a view to understand as well the factors that lead to success. The second essay takes a further step from the broad overview of the first essay by looking in detail at individual projects and examining what factors could lead to better value for money to governments. Finally, the third essay looks at the choice between asset sales and share issue privatization as two specific methods for privatization and their subsequent impact on the performance of the privatized company. The three essays thus represent a progression from survival to good health and finally to growth. My major conclusions are: Project cancellation rates, though rising, are still low. Although ownership may change hands, for the most part, the private sector is staying in private infrastructure projects. Although trends in cancellation may not be an issue for private infrastructure projects as a whole, it is a concern in the water and sewerage sector. The high probability of cancellation and relatively low level of fresh investment in the sector suggests a declining role for the private sector in making available this essential service. There is value for money to governments from entering into Public-Private Partnerships in infrastructure. Divestment leads to significant improvement in profitability, efficiency, and real output of firms, besides providing some fiscal boost to the government. However, the impact on employment is negative. SUSTAINING PRIVATIZATION by Kumar V Pratap Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2011 Advisory Committee: Professor Carol Graham, Chair Dr Mark Lopez Dr Nagpurnanda Prabhala Professor Peter Murrell Dr Tracy Gordon Mr Clive Harris ©Copyright by Kumar V Pratap 2011 Acknowledgements I wish to acknowledge the invaluable help rendered by a number of my dissertation committee members without which it would not have been possible to produce this work. Mr Clive Harris (Practice Manager, Public-Private Partnerships, World Bank Institute) collaborated in preparation of part of Chapter 1 of this dissertation. Dr Tracy Gordon and Dr Nagpurnananda Prabhala (both of the University of Maryland, College Park) provided helpful comments on all the chapters in this dissertation. Professor Carol Graham (Senior Fellow and Charles Robinson Chair, The Brookings Institution & College Park Professor, University of Maryland) provided support in the entire process of earning this doctorate. She was extremely prompt in addressing all my concerns despite an extremely busy schedule. Dr Mark Lopez (Associate Director, Pew Hispanic Center) aided with observations on earlier drafts of the thesis. A childhood friend, Dr Suhas Parandekar of the World Bank, helped with the quantitative analysis in the dissertation. All remaining errors are my own. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Overall Theme…………………………………………………………………………1 Chapter 1: What drives private sector exit from infrastructure? An analysis of the cancellation of private infrastructure projects………………………………… 14 1: Introduction: The boom, bust and slow recovery of private participation in infrastructure……………………………………………………………… 14 2: Trends in the Cancellation of Infrastructure Projects with Private Participation……………………………………………………………….. 17 3: Literature Review………………………………………………………. 20 4: Data description………………………………………………………… 30 5: Descriptive Statistics……………………………………………………. 37 6: The Model and Results………………………………………………….. 40 7: What happens to canceled projects?.......................................................... 64 8: Conclusion………………………………………………………………. 74 Annex 1: Case Studies of Canceled Private Infrastructure Projects……….. 77 Case Study 1: Mexican Toll Roads - Their Cancellation and Re-privatization……………………………………………………………. 77 Case Study 2: The cancellation of Dieng, Patuha, and Karaha Bodas power projects (Indonesia)………………………………………………………… 80 Case Study 3: The cancellation of Aguas Argentinas project (Argentina)… 82 Case Study 4: The cancellation of Dar-es-Salaam Water and Sewerage (Tanzania)………………………………………………………………….. 86 Case Study 5: Dabhol Power Company (India)…………………………… 88 Annex 2: Correlation Matrix……………………………………………….. 92 Annex 3: Canceled infrastructure projects that have been revived with private participation in developing countries, 1990-2007 ……………………….. 93 References………………………………………………………………… 94 Chapter 2: Value for Money in Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure 100 1: Introduction……………………………………………………………. 100 iii 2: Theoretical Framework………………………………………………… 101 3: Literature Review………………………………………………………. 112 4: Data description………………………………………………………… 128 5: Methodology……………………………………………………………. 130 6. Sector-wise calculation of Value for Money in Indian PPPs…………… 133 7: Conclusion: Overall Value for Money in Indian PPPs…………………. 169 References………………………………………………………………… 172 Chapter 3: Does privatization lead to benign outcomes? Case study of privatization in India…………………………………………………………………………….. 176 1: Introduction……………………………………………………………… 176 2: Literature Review……………………………………………………….. 180 3: History of Privatization in India interpreted through Models of Political Economy…………………………………………………………………… 189 4: Data description………………………………………………………… 202 5: Methodology……………………………………………………………. 205 6: Results of Privatization…………………………………………………. 211 7: Conclusion………………………………………………………………. 247 Annex Table 1: Privatization revenues (by firm) in India, 1990 – 2008….. 250 References…………………………………………………………………. 256 iv LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1 Table 1: Canceled infrastructure projects with private participation in developing countries, by sector, 1990-2006……………………………………………. 19 Table 2: Canceled infrastructure projects with private participation in developing countries, by region, 1990-2006…………………………………………… 20 Table 3: Cost of Equity and Average Profitability, by Sector, of Privatized and Concessioned Firms in Latin America and Caribbean Countries, 1990-2000…25 Table 4: Incidence of Renegotiation and Cancellation, total and by sector.. 28 Table 5: PPI Project Cancellation: Variable Description………………….. 36 Table 6: Descriptive Statistics for project-level variables………………… 38 Table 7: Descriptive Statistics for sector-level variables………………… 39 Table 8: Descriptive Statistics for country-level variables………………… 39 Table 9: Model results with binary dependent variable: Model (1) is a Linear Probability Model; Model (2) is a Probit with marginal effects………….. 44 Table 10: Robustness Table: Main Independent Variable – Project-specific Macroeconomic shock……………………………………………………. 51 Table 11: Robustness Table: Main Independent Variable – Water and Sewerage sector………………………………………………………………………. 53 Table 12: Model Results with binary dependent variable (including distressed projects on the LHS): Model (1) is a Linear Probability Model; Model (2) is a Probit with marginal effects……………………………………………….. 55 Table 13: Description of the Dataset in Duration Analysis format……… 57 Table 14: Model results with Cox regression – exact marginal likelihood model…………………………………………………………………….. 62 Table 15: Project ownership status subsequent to cancellation, by sector, 1990- 2007………………………………………………………………………. 66 Table 16: Privatization, cancellation, and re-privatization of infrastructure projects, by country………………………………………………………. 71 v Appendix Table 1: Correlation Matrix…………………………………… 92 Appendix Table 2: Correlation among institutional variables …………… 92 Annex 3: Canceled infrastructure projects that have been revived with private participation in developing countries, 1990-2007………………………… 93 Chapter 2 Table 1: Types of risk and their normative allocation in a typical infrastructure PPP project………………………………………………………………… 110 Table 2: Private Participation in Infrastructure in India (1990-2007)…….. 127 Table 3: BOT (Annuity) based projects in India………………………… 137 Table 4: Value for Money in NHDP Phase I for BOT (annuity) projects… 139 Table 5: Construction cost overrun (conventional procurement vs PPPs) consolidated over 14 studies………………………………………………. 142 Table 6: Sensitivity Analysis of Value for Money in BOT (annuity) projects………………………………………………………………. 143 Table 7: Value for Money in NHDP Phase I BOT (toll) projects……….. 146 Table 8: Sensitivity Analysis of Value for Money in BOT (toll) projects… 149 Table 9: Value for money in Power sector PPPs………………………… 153 Table 10: Tariffs in Ultra-Mega Power Projects…………………………. 155 Table 11: Return on equity (%) in Nhava Sheva International