Unidad de análisis • www.ideaspaz.org/publications • page 1 Siguiendo el conflicto: hechos y análisis Number 48/ March 2007 By: Román D. Ortiz* Gerson Arias** - originated in the declarations of the Minister of Defence Juan Manuel Santos during the “First What is at stake at the Ninth Conference of Meeting on the Financing of Terrorism” in mid the FARC*** November in Bogotá. The Minister referred to the FARC meeting, drawing attention to the fact While there have been advances in the dismantling that “Now they can’t have these conferences with of paramilitary structures and in the negotiation speeches and parties as was the case in the past. between the ELN and the government, the eyes of Moreover, all the local commanders can’t meet at politicians and analysts have turned overwhelmingly 2 towards the FARC as a key actor whose behaviour the same time”. In this way, the Minister stressed will determine if the conflict dies out gradually, or, not only the political importance of the event to the on the contrary, is prolonged into the future. At guerrilla group, but also the difficulties facing the the same time, however, the uncertainty about the organization in realizing it. strategic situation of the guerrilla led by Manuel Marulanda has increased to the point where In fact, the FARC Conference is the highest political contradictory explanations about their capacity and entity in which the main ideas about determining the intentions are proliferating. On the one hand, there group’s political-military action are elaborated, and are those who are certain that a peace process is during which the members of the Central General inevitable considering the setbacks suffered by Staff are chosen who in turn select the members the organization as a result of the almost five- of the Secretariat3, the executive branch of the year-old Democratic Security Policy. On the other organization. The preparation for the conference hand, there are those who claim that the guerrilla begins with the elaboration of the document by the remain practically intact, ready to continue their Secretariat that is supposed to serve as a base for violent activities, and will only be inclined to discussion for the organization. This text is sent to negotiate under conditions they find satisfactory. the different units of the guerrilla group – Fronts, Far from resolving these doubts, the recent Mobile Columns, etc. – where it is discussed in communication from the Secretariat of the FARC assemblies made up of all the militants regardless that the organization has held a new Conference1 of their rank and condition. Afterwards, each in order to define their future political-military unit chooses one or several delegates who are in course of action has increased the controversy. charge of representing it during the Conference. Nevertheless, some clues to explain the current In this way, the central event of the Conference state of this organization and its perspectives on ends up being a meeting of some eighty delegates its own evolution can be found in this meeting. in addition to the thirty one members of the Central General Staff and the nine members of the The first news about the new Conference – the Secretariat. In other words, it is a meeting in which Ninth organized by the FARC since its birth in 1964 around a hundred or so members chosen from the organization meet, among which is included the *Director of the Master’s Program in Political Science, Los Andes complete leadership. University. Assessor at Fundación Ideas para la Paz. **Researcher at Fundación Ideas para la Paz ***This article was prepared with the collaboration of María Vic- The conferences are key political moments for the toria Llorente, Juan Carlos Palou and Juan Sebastían Ospina. FARC not only because they define the future course English translation by Matthew Rossman. of action of the guerrilla group, but also because Unidad de análisis • www.ideaspaz.org/publications• page 2 they represent a scenario in which the base can members who have spent more than a decade make suggestions to the leadership. Of course it in the organization have been turning to the cannot be said that the FARC is democratic. In demobilization program more frequently than fact, the totalitarian character of the organization’s before. Of all demobilized guerrillas in the past two ideology, the constant military discipline and the months of January and February 2007, between five methods of coercion in the hands of the leadership and six percent were identified as middle-ranking frustrate authentic open debate. However, it is members. Although at first glance this appears to also certain the assemblies held by the Fronts in be a minor figure, it must be remembered that preparation for the Conference are scenarios in such members prefer not to identify themselves as which the participants can air dissenting views middle ranking to avoid persecution by the former capable of challenging the control of the Secretariat comrades and prosecution for their responsibility in and, in certain cases, of forcing changes in the atrocities. Similarly, some middle ranking members political direction of the organization including deciding to desert prefer to do it without turning replacements in the leadership. In addition, to the government program, not seeing any great the gathering of the FARC leaders in one place advantage in it for them. This makes it likely that to celebrate the Conference creates important there has been a substantial underreporting of security problems in the risk of being found and the middle ranking number of guerrillas who have attacked by the Colombian security forces. As has abandoned the organization. If the limited number been suggested by certain parts of the Colombian of individuals that make up the command structure Military4, this combination of difficulties in assuring of the guerrilla - between 400 and 600 out of a political control of the meeting and guarantying total of 10.500 combatants – and the difficulty in its security may have been behind the decision of replacing them are also taken into consideration, the leadership to hold a “virtual” Conference on it could be said that current levels of desertion the internet, avoiding a physical meeting of the cannot be easily tolerated by the FARC. delegates. These symptoms of eternal weakness are a result Whether or not the Conference has in fact been of a combination of factors. On the one hand, there held, the more relevant question is why hold it is no doubt that the increase in pressure by the now, particularly considering that it is a process full military during the last several years has frustrated of political and security risks for a leadership that the expectations of those who joined the ranks of has monopolized power within the FARC. Without the insurgents hoping to benefit from a quick victory a doubt, one part of the answer to this question over the state. As a consequence, a good part of lies in the existence of problems with internal those sectors has turned to the demobilization cohesion inside the organization. A symptom program as a way out of a struggle that has begun of this trend is the impact of the demobilization to be perceived as nonsensical. In addition, the program on the ranks of the insurgents. From reduction in military actions by the guerrilla as August 2002 to February of this year, 6.431 part of a strategy to preserve their strength has desertions from the FARC 5 have been registered, led to a paralysis in the Fronts that has resulted an average of 115 per month. Furthermore, this in a growing demoralization. Finally, the growing flood of demobilizations has especially affected communication difficulties between the leadership some particularly significant guerrilla units. In fact, and the operating units as a consequence of in the period mentioned above, the Western Joint the government’s military campaign has led to Command, the Cundinamarca and Tolima Central a reduction in the capacity of the Secretariat to Joint Command, and the Mobile Column Teófilo control what happens inside the Fronts. The result Forero, have accumulated the greatest number of has been a loss of strategic cohesion and the desertions in relation to the total number of men tendency for political differences to appear in the in the unit. This trend indicates how some of the heart of the organization. armed units traditionally considered as part of the nucleus of the FARC have started to show signs of Indeed, the FARC has stopped being a monolithic weakening. organization for a while now, and today it is possible to distinguish distinct generation of commanders Moreover, a more detailed look at the profile of the with different positions on how to respond to demobilized guerrillas shows new indications of the government’s security strategy and on what the internal crisis within the FARC. The deserters should be the future strategy of the guerrilla. It is who have given up arms are no longer young, possible to identify at least four political families low-level combatants recently incorporated in within the insurgent leadership. On one side, there the organization. On the contrary, middle-ranking is the so called “Historic Generation” formed by the veterans of Marquetalia such as Marulanda himself Unidad de análisis • www.ideaspaz.org/publications • page 3 or Timoleón who participated in the founding of position”, and it is a minority position within the the organization. Also, there is the “First Urban organization. In the view of supporters of this Generation” which includes commanders such option, the armed struggle is beginning to be seen as Alfonso Cano or Ivan Marquez who joined the as a failure, and they are beginning to consider FARC in the beginning of the eighties in the wake the possibility of a political dialogue before the of the Nicaraguan revolution.