STREAMING MEDIA REPORT Analysts: Michael Inouye & Dimitris Mavrakis

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STREAMING MEDIA REPORT Analysts: Michael Inouye & Dimitris Mavrakis STREAMING MEDIA REPORT Analysts: Michael Inouye & Dimitris Mavrakis TABLE OF CONTENTS ORGANIC VIDEO TRAFFIC GROWTH Organic Video Traffic Growth AND NEW USE CASES and New Use Cases ....................................................1 The spread of video streaming, often under the guise of Over-the-Top The Dawn of Ultra-High-Quality Video Content ................................ 3 AR and VR: Immersive Content and Communications ...................... 4 (OTT), is well established and its ripple effects are still being felt and adapted Cloud Gaming ................................................................................. 7 to by the incumbents (e.g., Multichannel Video Programming Distributors Modeling A 4G Network to Illustrate (MVPDs) and content owners). As one begins peering further into the Capacity Constraints .................................................8 4G Network Model ......................................................................... 9 future, however, user behavior and media streaming, in general, will begin How Will 5G Solve the Capacity Crunch? ....................10 to engender new opportunities and challenges as consumption habits Availability of New Spectrum and Higher Efficiency ....................... 11 and technological advancements push toward new boundaries. The Distributing, Processing, and Traffic Management with desire to go direct to consumers, coupled with an expanding list of streaming Edge Computing ........................................................................... 11 Summary ................................................................13 services, is actively reshaping content channels and altering the media and entertainment landscape. While media and entertainment often receives the lion’s share of attention, the road ahead for streaming media extends beyond OTT video; other markets like cloud gaming and Augmented Reality (AR)/Virtual Reality (VR) represent growth opportunities, but present new challenges beyond data traffic alone. www.abiresearch.com The increasing reliance on OTT for video content has placed significant attention on aligning these viewing experiences with broadcasters and pay TV operators. For live content, this means reaching latencies as close to broadcast levels as possible to preserve the live feed and avoid spoilers, be it from individuals in close proximity watching on cable TV or social media posts. Streaming protocols like HLS and MPEG-DASH, by nature, introduce latencies that exceed typical broadcast levels at under 10 seconds, but can range from 2 to 15 seconds with averages between 5 and 7 seconds; some of this latency with live content is intentional to give broadcasters a buffer zone for any necessary censorship. With Adaptive Bitrate (ABR) streaming at 30 to 45+ seconds, a common strategy is to implement shorter segments (e.g., moving from 10 seconds to 2 to 6 seconds), which can bring streams closer, if not within range of typical broadcasts. Tuned or shorter segment ABR is suitable for most TV-like video streaming, but certain applications and particularly those that require interactivity or synchronization with live content (e.g., trivia, content gamification, etc.) can require considerably lower levels of latency. To reach even lower latencies, LL-HLS, LL-CMAF, SRT, or other protocols like WebRTC and RTP/RTSP can help reach near real- time latencies. While streaming protocols are available to satisfy applications across the latency spectrum, there are currently tradeoffs to reaching the lowest latency levels; RTP/RTSP, for example, offers the lowest latencies, but lacks serious security/encryption and is often streamed unencrypted. Activities within the ultra-low latency category like gambling, auctions, and video surveillance require minimal latency because they support in-process or follow-up actions and input from the viewers. Bidders in an auction, for example, might submit bids up until the close of the bidding process. Similarly, a security team monitoring a surveillance feed may need to respond to activities viewed within a security feed. Figure 1: Streaming Latency and Protocols (Source: ABI Research) NEAR REAL-TIME HIGH LATENCY TYPICAL LATENCY REDUCED LATENCY LOW LATENCY ULTRA-LOW LATENCY LATENCY REAL-TIME LATENCY TYPICAL BROADCAST LIVE EVENTS VIDEO ULTRA LOW AND NEAR/REAL-TIME LATENCY VIDEO (MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT) LATENCY/DELAY (eg eSPORTS) ambli ealtime Commuicatios uctios Clou ami Sureillace Clou HLS HLS (TUNED OR SHORT SEGMENT LL-HLS reuires motio to photo latecy ms DASH DASH (TUNED OR SHORT SEGMENT LL-CMAF - DASH/HLS RTMP SRT RTP/RTSP, WEBRTC 60+ 45 30 18 10 1 1 <1 <200 Secos Secos Secos Secos Secos Secos Seco Seco illisecos At the end of the latency spectrum, activities that support some level of interactivity, in contrast to one- way streamed content, often require as close to real-time latencies as possible. Real-time communications and cloud gaming, for example, require less than 200 Milliseconds (ms) of latency before the experience becomes largely unsatisfactory; depending on the user and type of games, cloud gaming could demand even lower latencies (e.g., sub-50 ms), particularly if the goal is to reach parity with local desktop gaming 2 www.abiresearch.com STREAMING MEDIA REPORT experiences. Immersive cloud experiences like VR, due to the heightened sensitivity to motion to photon latency, these values often need to fall below 20 ms. Optimizations on the server/encode side, as well as the client/player, can help reach adequate experiences for a range of users, but the optimal conditions, particularly for immersive cloud content will need network enhancements like those offered by 5G. While immersive cloud AR/VR is further out on the horizon, the continued growth in streaming video, coupled with the progression of higher quality video, creates opportunities for companies to increase efficiencies in how content is distributed to save costs, reduce bandwidth, and, ultimately, provide a better overall customer experience. THE DAWN OF ULTRA-HIGH-QUALITY VIDEO CONTENT Within 7 years of the first commercially available 4K TVs, the majority of TVs sold today support this higher resolution. The transition from High Definition (HD) to 4K is due more to the aggressive pricing and adjustments to product mixes by TV manufacturers than the spread of 4K video content, but the video market is starting to catch up, particularly as connected TV viewing sees strong growth due to viewing habits like binge watching. Peering further ahead in time, the next transition to 8K and, eventually, immersive content stand ready to usher in even higher levels of video quality and interactivity. Each successive step will introduce higher bitrates (even with advancements in codecs), growing from 5 to 12 Megabytes per Second (Mbps) for most full HD streams today, to eclipsing 15 to 25 Mbps for 4K video. Immersive content—VR or 360° video—will accelerate this growth in data rates, particularly with new applications like volumetric capture and Six Degrees of Freedom (6DoF) video streaming. On the data side, video will continue to represent the largest share of all network traffic, growing with advance- ments in quality and video streamers. Chart 1 below represents ranges of streaming bitrates and bandwidth requirements for streaming video based on video quality and at the higher categories, such as immersive 360° content. Chart 1: Bitrates and Bandwidth Requirements by Video Streaming Category (Source: ABI Research) 200 Mbps to 1.5 Gbps to 1.4 Gbps 3.5 Gbps 50 to 200 Mbps 20 to 50 15 to 50 Mbps 20 to 25 Mbps Mbps 9 Mbps . bps 5 Mbps HD 720p HD 1020p 1440p 4K 2160p VR (4K) 8K VR (8K) VR (12K) VR (24K) 3 www.abiresearch.com STREAMING MEDIA REPORT The combination of increasing bitrates tied to higher quality, newer forms of video, and a viewing population that already exceeds 2.6 billion (and is expected to surpass 3.7 billion by 2025) is creating congestion in access networks, both mobile (Long-Term Evolution (LTE)) and fixed e.g.,( cable, Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)). It is worth noting that current Over-the-Air (OTA) broadcast standards do not support 8K content, which could put additional pressure on streaming services to serve this type of content, as 8K TVs enter consumers’ households and viewers seek native versus upscaled content. While this congestion is not creating access issues to the network, it can result in lower quality levels of streaming media. This creates opportunities for solutions or strategies that can reduce traffic redundancies within the network and whenever possible, leverage efficiencies like opportunistic multicasting. Content Delivery Networks (CDNs), for example, are pushing video workflow functions like packaging and encoding for popular content closer to the edge to minimize the traffic coming from origin servers and reducing congestion within the network. Bringing content closer to the edge also minimizes latency, which is essential for cloud mixed reality experiences. While edge computing is applicable across networks, as evidenced by the shift from Mobile Edge Computing to Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC), 5G will further the development of the edge to better support these new applications. For those cases where multiple users request the same video (e.g., within a designated time window) a multicast feed could replace the two or more unicast streams, at least through parts of the network. For example, one stream could traverse the network to the edge where it could then be delivered as a unicast
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