Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality
March 2012
COAST OF OPPORTUNITIES - DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN LOLLAND
SUMMARY OF SUSCOD ICZM CASE REPORT CASERAPPORT
PROJECT SUSCOD ICZM
Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality
Project nr. 205872
Dokument nr. 123732141 Version 2 JaD/JCR
NIRAS A/S CVR-nr. 37295728 T: 4810 4200 D: 48104697 Sortemosevej 19 Member of FRI F: 4810 4300 M: 30169375 3450 Allerød www.niras.com E: [email protected] E: [email protected]
INDHOLD 1 OBJECTIVES ...... 1
2 THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 1 2.1 Waves “eat” the Lollander dyke ...... 1 2.2 Increasing rainfall and torrential rain will cause flooding ...... 3
3 THE COAST TODAY ...... 3 3.1 Value Mapping ...... 4 3.2 Pilot area ...... 4 3.3 Coast in sub-area 1 ...... 5 3.4 Coast in sub-area 2 ...... 6 3.5 Coast in sub-area 3 ...... 6
4 CLIMATE ADAPTATION CREATES NEW VALUES IN COASTAL ZONE ...... 8 4.1 Natural coastline with retracted dyke ...... 10 4.2 Exciting holiday cottage areas and new international beach park...... 10 4.3 Outstanding opportunity for coordination with the Fehmarn Belt ...... 12 4.4 New values are created ...... 12
5 INPUT TO ICZM cookbook ...... 13 5.1 Cross-cutting project organization ...... 13 5.2 Stakeholder involvement ...... 13 5.3 Background and Materials ...... 14 5.4 Legislation ...... 14
6 KEY CONCLUSIONS ...... 15
(Currency used: Danish Kroner, DKK . 7.5 DKK approx. equal to 1 Euro )
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
1 OBJECTIVES The overall objective was to contribute to an integrated coastal planning for cli- mate adaptation for a selected area on the south coast of the Danish island Lol- land (54°46′10″N 11°25′28″E).
The project is representing one of five geographic areas selected in the climate change adaptation plan for the island of Lolland in 2009. Each of the geographic areas will require efforts that are tailored to geographical conditions.
The project's immediate objectives were:
• Valuation of coastal areas from 0 to 2.5 m AMSL (DNN), including “hard” val- ues (buildings, infrastructure, agricultural land) and “soft” values (nature, land- scape, cultural heritage).
• Assessment of the possibilities to regulate the impacts of sea and the flow of water from the hinterland.
• Description of development scenarios for the coast in the light of climate changes, including the outline of options for obtaining soil for dike reinforcement from excess soil from the Fehmarn Belt project or from dredging on the coast.
• Input to ICZM handbook and tools for coastal zone adaptation to changing cli- matic conditions.
The project's results are Lolland Municipality's contribution to the SUScod pro- ject, which is funded by the EU INTERREG funds with Region Zealand as re- sponsible coordinator. Ideas for project come in part from a prior competition of ideas in 2009, where NIRAS and a number of other advisers on Lolland munici- pality's request presented an for integrated coastal zone management idea " Water of Opportunities " for a smaller area called Ydø.
2 THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Water surface elevations and coastal erosion are threatening the dikes safety while increasing precipitation and stormwater incidents create risk of flooding inland
2.1 Waves “eat” the Lollander dyke After the flood, 13 november 1872, which flooded most of the southwestern is- land of Lolland, the Parliament (Rigsdagen) on 23 May 1873 passed a Law on Dikework on Lolland and Falster. The Act ordered landowners to construct and maintain a dike along the southwest coast of Lolland to protect against future flooding, and to create a dyke association (digelag) to perform the task.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality: 1
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
The dyke is approx. 4 meters high and 70 km. long and runs from Nakskov along Nakskov Fjord to Langø, on to Lodskerne and thence along the south coast to Saksfjed damming and inland to Handermelle. The dike was placed behind the existing beaches which protect the dike against wave attack especially during high tide.
Ever since the dikes were built in 1874-75 the waves have “eaten” of the beach- es in front of the dike. On average approx. 25.000 m3 of sand disappears annu- ally on the dyke front, meaning that the beaches eventually will completely dis- appear. In order to compensate for the reduced protective layer the local Dyke Association (Digelaget) spends around 3 to 4 million DKK every year to ensure the dikes with stone revetments and beach nourishment. The entire stretch from Ydø to Næsby Strand is now a stone coast (see Figure 2).
Figure 1: The beach in front Hummingen holiday residence area is still wide, with dunes.
Figure 2: The beach at Ålehoved west is completely gone, and it has been required recently to secure the dike against wave attack with a large stone revetments.
The coastal erosion will increase with the expected climate-based increases in seawater level of approx. 0.5 -1 m the next 100 years. If no action is taken in this development, all the beaches end as stony revetments, and the coastal recrea- tional value will be almost entirely eliminated.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality: 2
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
2.2 Increasing rainfall and torrential rain will cause flooding Behind the dikes increasing rainfall and cloudburst events caused by climate change may lead to increased storm water volumes to be discharged on the surface, as most of Lolland is not suitable for infiltration. Consequently there will be pressure on the water discharge from the major agricultural areas, urban and holiday cottage areas.
Figure 3: Relative heights and drainage channels behind the dike.
As the water level rise will also make the groundwater level rise in the longer term, there is a need to consider how these increased volumes of water must be handled in the future.
3 THE COAST TODAY A 4 m high dike along the south coast today protects against flooding from the Sea. The dike protects agricultural and holiday cottage proper- ties with a total property value of approx. 15 billion DKK.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality: 3
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
3.1 Value Mapping The value survey covers both "hard" physical assets and "soft” values, where data have been available. The analysis (Figure 4) shows that the area's high property values (red-orange) are particularly associated with areas of high build- ing density, including the particular holiday cottage areas on the coast Agricul- ture and tourism also represents values attached to land and natural areas (Blueish).
Figure 4: Value Mapping "hard" values presented as property values in project areas (data source: Property and Environment Database), DKK per m2
The values are under pressure because of the increased rainfall, demographic changes, lack of jobs, etc. And therefore it is important to look at opportunities for value creation and enhancement, and not just conservative preservation of the existing or dwindling values.
3.2 Pilot area To further study the possibilities of protecting existing values in the future and creating new values under an expected climate change regime, a 12 km long coastal pilot area was selected. The actions outlined in the pilot area may be transferred with minor adjustments to the rest of the coastline.
The pilot coast (pilot kyst) stretches from the holiday cottage area by Næsby Strand in the west to the holiday cottage area Hummingen just west of Kramnitse, see figure 5
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality: 4
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
Pilot Kyst
Næsby Strand Del 1 Hummingen Del 2
Del 3
Figure 5: The 12 km-long pilot area is divided into 3 sub-areas (del 1-3), each with its distinctive appearance and development potentials.
3.3 Coast in sub-area 1 The western part of this area is dominated by forest (Figure 7) in elevation +3 m DNN right out to the dike interrupted by short stretches of meadows in elevation +0.5 m DNN.
Figure 6: The dike off Næsby Strand – subarea 1. The dike is secured with stones to prevent lee side erosion from Næsby Beach.
Figure 7: A look from the top of the dike towards the woods. The forest floor reaches almost up to the dyke (+4 m DNN).
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality: 5
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
A larger holiday cottage area is located in the west by Næsby Strand, where beach and dike is protected by a series of coast-parallel breakwaters, which regularly fed by sand (Figure 8).
Figure 8. Næsby Strand towards Southeast. The beach has been stabilized with coast-parallel breakwaters, which provides for the construction of smaller dunes. The forest that reaches right out to the dike is seen in the background.
3.4 Coast in sub-area 2 The middle section of the coast is dominated by agriculture and a fringe of holi- day cottages along the dike surrounded by woods in the background ( Figure 9 left). The entire coastal zone has been designated outdoor area, and a large buffer strip along the coast is reserved the right for future urban and holiday cot- tage development.
3.5 Coast in sub-area 3 Most of the coastal zone in sub-area 3 is reserved for farming. A relatively nar- row wide buffer strip along the coast is designated for open-air area and holiday cottage development (Figure 9 right). The area ends to the east at Hummingen, which is a large and broad holiday-cottage area.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality: 6
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
Figure 9: Left: Small fringe of holiday cottages just up the dike. Sub-area 2 at Stødby beach. Right: Wide beach with dune formation off Hummingen holiday area, sub-area 3.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality: 7
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
4 CLIMATE ADAPTATION CREATES NEW VALUES IN COASTAL ZONE Exciting and unique scenery and a new attractive climate-proof land- use and holiday cottage areas.
By building on the valuation, and the physical possibilities and planning condi- tions according to the Planning Act, a comprehensive climate proof coastal zone development plan for the selected 12 km long coastal pilot was developed.
The overall plan is shown in Figure 10, while the following sections show various examples of how climate adaptation can occur along the coast. The coastal part of the project can be relatively easily implemented independent of the land part, and may advantageously be implemented in conjunction with the Fehmarn Belt project.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality: 8
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
Figure 10: Integrated climate adapted coastal zone plan for the 12 km long pilot area
Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality: www.niras.dk SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM 9
4.1 Natural coastline with retracted dyke In the western end of the 12 km stretch, where the forest reaches right out to the beach, the dike will be pulled 300-750 meters into the hinterland, creating a natu- rally wide foreland to protect the dike against the waves, see Figure 11
The new alignment follows as far as possible the existing terrain along +3 m DNN height curve. Where the terrain is lower than +3 m DNN, a new dyke is established (shown in dashed red line) with a dike crown height of + 3m DNN to ensure against flooding of the hinterland.
Figure 11: Sub-area 1: Dike (red line) is pulled back 300 to 750 meters from the coast line. most of this stretch.
In the western end of the forest area, a new artificial headland (Ny kunstig pynt) will be constructed to stabilize the beach next to Næsby Strand holiday cottage area. East of the headland a major depot is constructed to feed the beach with sand to the east.
4.2 Exciting holiday cottage areas and new international beach park East of the woods and along the rest of the 8 km long coastline the dike is se- cured by increasing the beach width by approx. 100 meters, see Figure 12
In the hinterland, the hollows (meadows and wetlands) are used to regulate run- off from increased precipitation and storm water.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality : 10
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
Two new headlands and two engineered lock-structures are constructed on the coast to stabilize the new beach. The Eastern engineered structure is integrated in a marina to be located here in line with local plan for Dannemare Marina Park. The western engineered structure is an intake, through which water flows through the channels into the meadow and lake-areas connected with the mari- na.
The existing low-lying holiday cottage areas are protected by levees in elevation +2 m DNN and pumps that send excess water into the wetlands behind dikes.
New holiday cottages and leisure activities are established above elevation +2.0 m DNN on "landscape lakes" in the hinterland around the meadow and lake area safe from flooding from both the sea and from rainfall.
Marshes drain naturally to the Baltic Sea through the two works, which bear high water locks (sluices) to ensure that water levels do not exceed +1.5 m DNN in the Marshes. Marshes are also associated with main channel system draining the hinterland, where wetlands in the low level of areas are established along the upper portion of the channel system for temporarily storing water in extreme precipitation events.
Figure 12: Climate-customized master plan for Subareas 2 and 3
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality : 11
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
One new pumping station will be constructed between the main channel and the large new wetlands to the south of the channel, see figure 12. Retention of wa- ter in the upper basin can thus be controlled, so that drainage in the upper as well as the lower basin secure against future hinterland flooding, thereby reduc- ing the need to establish additional pumping capacity in Kramnitse.
The whole area is bordered to the north of the forest, complemented by new forests in the eastern end.
4.3 Outstanding opportunity for coordination with the Fehmarn Belt There is a unique opportunity to use the excess quantities of excavation sedi- ment from the Fehmarn Belt tunnel construction process, around. 20 million m3, for the establishment of the proposed beaches to ensure the levees along the south coast of Lolland.
4.4 New values are created Integrated climate change management allows for the creation of new add- ed values in the coastal zone.
The total value of property protected by the dikes along the coast of Lolland is estimated at 15 billion DKK. To this you may add an annual present value of tourism, which is estimated at 3.6 billion DKK in the project area. Establishment of 225 ha of new holiday cottage areas will potentially contribute to a gain of approx. 2.8 billion DKK.
Climate change ma- % of total Estimated Estimated Area usage ha nagement plan area costs, mio. gains, ha DKK mio. DKK Natural areas - total +677 22.2 17-60 17-21 - Wetlands +480 15.7 8-55 11-14 - Lakes +31 1.0 4 1-2 - Forest +85 2.8 4 5-6 - Beach +83 2.8 - - Holiday cottage areas +225 7.3 - 2,756 Agricultural land -902 29.6 70-187 - Total (- minus cottages) - - 97-247 17-21 Table 1: Estimated figures for climate change adaptation plan
The table shows that the proposed climate adaptation plan will increase the holi- day cottage area of the south coast by 225 hectares (ha), which is approx. 38 per cent. expansion of the existing planned holiday cottage area in the coastal zone. The table indicates that the costs (97 to 247 million DKK) Is higher than the estimated gains (17-21 million DKK), if disregarding the value of tourism potential associated with the holiday cottages (2.756 million DKK). .
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality : 12
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
The project is only viable if it succeeds in attracting tourist investments; or if the value of the contribution to climate change adaptation in a large catchment area is sufficiently large.
It requires further study of market conditions and the legislation, before it can be assessed, whether it is realistic to develop the proposed area.
The distinction between traditional Danish cottage-based tourism and more in- ternational oriented Marina- and beach-based tourism will also affect the value of tourism in the plan. Generally, it is economically most valuable to attract foreign tourists and to get Danes to have their holidays on Lolland, rather than abroad.
The proposed climate adaptation coastal zone plan will transform 902 hectares of farmland, which is a significant area, which wholly or partly becomes unpro- ductive in the future. Agricultural land affected directly by the plan represents 29.6 per cent. of the coastal zone, which will however also benefit from the pro- ject's contribution to water management in the hinterland.
5 INPUT TO ICZM COOKBOOK It is important in the process to integrate knowledge of stakeholders, the legislative framework, economic and technical possibilities.
5.1 Cross-cutting project organization Since the project is a development project with many challenges and disci- plines involved, Lolland municipality and NIRAS each created a transverse project structure and an overall project steering committee with representa- tives from the physical planning, technology, environment and development teams. The strength of the project was undoubtedly a good collaboration across internally in the organizations and between the involved organizations. It was also a strength, that the project team contained both landscape planners, economists, dike engineers, water engineers, biologists and GIS specialists, all with a transverse project experience.
5.2 Stakeholder involvement In the first project meeting, a number of potential stakeholders were identified, both locally, regionally and nationally that could help to qualify, develop and im- plement the project. It was further discussed which stakeholders could be strong supporters and opponents of the project's various phases.
In this project the following key stakeholders were identified: The Lolland dike association and dike engineer; municipal departments, for example. business and development, science, technology and environment and physical planning; landowners, farmers and forest owners (the State); holiday cottage owners, Fehmarn Belt A / S; Danish Coastal Zone Authority; advisers; local businesses; Danish Nature Agency, Local Government Denmark, Region Zealand; SUSCOD project.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality : 13
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
It is recommended in a larger project to make a thorough stakeholder analysis as part of a risk analysis, whereby the stakeholders' different positions and relative strengths are uncovered.
5.3 Background and Materials It was from the beginning of the project a prerequisite for the technical analysis and value mapping that the municipality, region, the dyke association and other stakeholders contributed openly with materials and preliminary analyses.
A particular challenge for the project is the possibility of reuse of a surplus amount of soil from the excavation to the Fehmarn Belt tunnel of approx.. 20 million m3. Much of this volume could be used for beach nourishment along the south coast of Lolland. Project staff were several times in touch with the Feh- marn Belt, who so far relate to the municipality's decision on recycling of soils from tunneling to protect the entry point of the tunnel outside Rødby harbor. Fur- ther work on the project SUSCOD on Lolland coast will require closer coopera- tion and partial access to the Fehmarn Belt analyzes.
It is generally necessary to have openness and free availability of preliminary analysis to ensure an informed basis for further work and to reduce time lost in the processes.
The time frame of the project was continuously adjusted, when materials and analyzes could not be brought forward on time.
5.4 Legislation A thorough review of the planning basis, local plans and regulations are an im- portant basis for an integrated coastal zone management plan. The project on the south coast of Lolland was based foremost on the municipal plan and various local plans for the area. The legal basis for the project is crossing boundaries and may be affected by legislation including The Environmental Protection Act, The Nature Protection Act, the Coast Protection Act, The Construction Act, The Agricultural Act, The Rivers Act and The Planning Act.
At the Danish Coastal Authority, which manages the Coast Protection Act, there is currently much focus on the increasing challenges faced in the form of rising water levels and stronger storms. Focus Denmark is directed not only at securing our shores against climate change, but equally to ensure that we in the future have varying and beautiful coasts, according to The Coast Protection Strategy issued August 2011. In other words, there is a need for a coastal planning which creates beautiful, varied and accessible coasts to interact with nature. The pro- ject is based on the philosophy behind this national strategy.
The main condition and planning challenge for the project are the Planning Act provisions dealing with coastal zone protection, which says only to involve coastal location for new urban areas and for planned constructions in rural areas, only where there is a specific planning or functional justification for it. A special planning or functional justification may be that it can be shown that, for instance.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality : 14
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
There will be a positive local economic impact of a project. Looking ahead, this point needs to be clarified, as the project's economic stability requires the ability to plan for e.g. holiday cottages in a completely new and more varied coastal landscape.
It should be mentioned that today large areas along the coast are already planned for holiday purposes, for which the project proposes a different and more suitable coastal location, to the benefit of both nature, tourism and climate adaptation.
The project will also need to be developed to a level that may support the prepa- ration of an EIA with any subsequent preparation of local plans for each individu- al sub-area, according to Figures 10-12.
6 KEY CONCLUSIONS
There is great potential in the coastal zone by thinking in development, value creation and synergies, rather than in pure conservation and pro- tection
Land conversion from agricultural land to tourist facilities integrate climate change adaptation and economic potential in a way not known prior in the Dan- ish context. Climate Change Adaptation Planning contains qualities that can get Lolland’s South Coast to flourish and enrich both nature and the tourist industry, which has implications for the possibility of a broader accept of such a compre- hensive approach to coastal zone development. If the municipality and the differ- ent stakeholders manage to trigger the plan potential, there is evidence of a prof- itable approach, which in an integrated manner offers economic development opportunities and at the same time contributes to the handling of the area's cli- mate challenges.
The study indicates:
- That it is possible to make climate adapted development to guard against flood- ing from the sea and from extreme precipitation events, while it creates a unique natural and vacation paradise on the South Sea Islands.
- There are great potentials in thinking in the development, value creation and synergies, rather than for conservation and protection in the traditional sense.
- It is important to start in coordinating the technical, natural, recreational and tourist development opportunities along with the needs for the protection of the coastal zone.
- That it is essential to gather the main stakeholders from the dyke association, municipality, landowners, holiday cottage owners, nature conservationists, etc.. in an open dialogue on opportunities and constraints for development of the coastal zone.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality : 15
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
- That the south coast of Lolland presents a unique opportunity for intelligent recycling of surplus soil from the tunnel construction under the Fehmarn Belt.
www.niras.dk Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality : 16
SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM