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Rethinking Economic Reforms and Foreign Exchange Behaviour in an Emerging Economy: Evidence from Nigeria

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Rethinking Economic Reforms and Foreign Exchange Behaviour in an Emerging Economy: Evidence from Nigeria GLOBAL JOURNAL OF HUMANITIES VOL 7, NO. 1&2, 2008: 71-83 71 COPYRIGHT© BACHUDO SCIENCE CO. LTD PRINTED IN NIGERIA. ISSN 1596-623 www.globaljournalseries.com ; Email: [email protected] RETHINKING ECONOMIC REFORMS AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE BEHAVIOUR IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA PATRICK L. AKPAN (Received 12 May 2009; Accepted 13 January 2009) ABSTRACT This paper examines economic reforms and the Management of foreign exchange in an emerging economy aimed at achieving the millennium development goals. Reform Programmes are not new in Nigeria as it has become a subject of public disquiet generally. Economic reform programme is expected to move the country to achieving improved standard of living. It has been established that the reform agenda has linkage with balance of payments, price stability, full employment, economic growth, protection of the environment and equity/poverty alleviation. Unrealistic nature of the Naira has prompted series of reforms namely, Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), guided deregulation and lastly, National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy. To guide against past mistakes, this paper opines that current economic reform programmes should be properly focused by way of redesigning a realistic and stable rate of the currency vis-a-vis resource base, and resource mobilization programme capable of tackling poverty alleviation problems and not just economic growth. The nature of problems as well as the felt needs of the citizens in the country should determine the policy relevance in the reform agenda. A deviation from this renders the reform programme an illusion. KEYWORDS: Macroeconomics, Exchange Rate, Typology, Reform, Management INTRODUCTION These shocks have implications on economic Although economic reform is not new, it policy objectives such as balance of payments, has intensified in its merits and distinction in price stability, full employment, economic growth, recent years and has become an important issue the protection of the environment and for discussion in various fora. It has also acquired equity/poverty alleviation. The implications of attention in its ramifications being associated economic reform are far reaching and have rightly or wrongly with some other issues and linkage with the foreign exchange management challenges currently engaging Nigeria's attention strategies of an economy. in the quest for achieving the millennium The main trust of the reform agenda has development goals. Thus an economic reform been to obtain the appropriate macroeconomic programme is expected to move the country to incentives through policy and institutional greater heights and invariably improve the reforms. key measures include rationalization of standard of living of its people. By economic the size of the public service labour force (public reform, the significant goal of which is to ensure sector reform), elimination of subsidies, the emergence and or restoration of sustainable reformation and where essential abrogation and economic growth, we are alluding to the or privatization/communalization of inefficient implementation of comprehensive shifts in macro parastataI institutions as well as liberalization of and micro-policies, both in response to different trade, price, interest and exchange rates. shocks and to rectify inappropriate past policies Exchange Rate is basically the rate at that have hindered economic performance. which one currency is exchanged for another. It Patrick L. Akpan , Faculty of Management Sciences, Cross River University of Technology, Uyo Current Address : P. O. Box 3882, UYO, NIGERIA 72 PATRICK L. AKPAN is believed to be the price of one currency in The exchange rate between countries terms of another currency. Thus it measures the are influenced by the forces of demand and relative worth of a domestic economy in terms of supply in the foreign exchange market. Factors another, most especially in relation to leading responsible for changes and or fluctuations in partners' economies, which include currencies of the demand and supply of foreign exchange industrialized countries comprising the United include but are not restricted to: Changes in States Dollars, British Pound Sterling, German Prices, Changes in Interest Rates, Changes in Deutsche Mark, Japanese Yen, French Franc, Export and Import, Capital movement and Italian Lira and the Canadian Dollar. Ogun (1998) influence of banks. Others are changes in Bank reasons that since real exchange rate is the price rates, Stock exchange influence, structural of foreign goods in terms of domestic goods, influences and influence of speculation. exchange rate volatility therefore refers to the Speculation causes short-run fluctuations in movement of real exchange rate (RER). Put exchange rate. Political conditions, policies of another way, volatility refers to the instability of exchange control and protection and type of real exchange rate vis-a-vis the long term economic system equally form other causes in patterns and trends (Frankee and Godstein the exchange rate. 1988). Variations or risk in international The combination of demand and supply commodity trade normally spring from dual side channels show that real output depends on sources. These are instability in nominal unanticipated movements in the exchange rate, exchange rate and variations in world prices. government spending, money supply and energy These jointly determine the domestic trade prices price. Additionally, supply side channels of a commodity over a period of time. establish that From the earliest of times, the exchange output changes in line with anticipated changes rate management (or stabilization) is expected to in the exchange rate and energy price. Aggregate achieve the following objectives: price stability, demand increases as a result of unexpected sustainable economic development, reduction of increase in government, expenditure or money unemployment and balance of payments viability supply. most especially when applied in collaboration The impacts of real exchange rate with other macroeconomic policies. Stable instability on the price level and output are exchange rate aids in the achievement of these complicated as a result of demand and supply macroeconomic goals. The converse also holds. channels and could be summarized as under: The exchange rate has to be right since it is a - unexpected appreciation of currency significant price that affects other prices. This makes exports more expensive and explains in part, why policy makers place import cheaper in the goods market; valuation on “realistic exchange rate”. - changes in the exchange rate, both Exchange rate instability impacts on anticipated and unanticipated lead to a output and employment depreciation, it is often determination of the cost of importing believed that it serves as a stimulant to economic intermediate goods, producers are activities. This is as a result of the initial increase inclined to increase imports of in the price of foreign commodities vis-a-vis home intermediate goods as dollars goods. This equally leads to price increases in appreciates; domestic output and domestic prices. - from the standpoint of money market, an Appreciation could result in a contractionary unexpected temporary increase in the value of effect on the economy. Besides, volatility of the currency vis-a-vis anticipated value in the exchange rates has implications for the overall future, prompts economic agents to hold less success of governments stabilization policies. currency and decreases interest rate. Appreciation is believed to be responsible for Furthermore it is pertinent to note that increase in unemployment. Government then exchange rate has been a very significant policy should intervene in the foreign exchange markets tool in different economies. It has served as a so as to stabilize the currency and protect nominal anchor in the stabilization of domestic employment and output against the adverse economic systems and reducing inflation rate. implications created by exchange rate instability. Foreign exchange management has been a Changes in the exchange rate greatly affect the meaningful element in staring off external profitability and performance of the imbalances and imperfections. Most countries in manufacturing industries (Campa and Goldberg Sub Saharan Africa of which Nigeria is one 1997). started with sharp nominal and real appreciation RETHINKING ECONOMIC REFORMS AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE BEHAVIOUR 73 of their currency. Brada (1998) reasoned that establishment of Central Bank. The what followed in the circumstance was real centralization of the foreign exchange authority appreciation as domestic inflation was more than in the bank also necessitated the development of subsequent nominal depreciation in the local foreign exchange market. In the 1970s economy. Halpern-and Wyplosz (1997) jointly there was increased export of crude oil as a posit that the sources of real and nominal result of sharp and astronomical rise in its prices. exchange rate fluctuations in an economic This facilitated official foreign exchange receipts. system involves dismantling of old production To pay for international transactions, economic structures and initiating structural reforms. This Agents patronized the Central Bank for foreign implies that such productivity growth and real exchange allocation. There was a boom in the wages changes can be expected to show an foreign exchange market at this period. This upward pressure on the real exchange rate. An necessitated
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