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Øst·Forum Nordisk [3·04] Nordisk Øst·forum Rusland som et almindeligt mellem- indkomstland Virkelighed på godt og ondt – styring af det russiske systemskifte Postsovjetiska berättelser om andra världskriget i Vitryssland Håndvåpen i Kirgisistan «All makt åt regionerna» «Det er søtt og vakkert å dø for Stalin!» Nr. 3 - 2004 17. Årgang Norwegian Institute Norsk of International Utenrikspolitisk Affairs Institutt [3] Innhold 287 Forord 289 Rusland som et almindeligt mellemindkomstland Martin Paldam 309 Virkelighed på godt og ondt – styring af det russiske systemskifte Christina Lund Jakobsen 325 «Enade vi stod»? Postsovjetiska berättelser om andra världskriget i Vitryssland Barbara Törnquist-Plewa 345 Ubegrunnet uro: et casestudium av spredning av håndvåpen i Kirgisistan Neil MacFarlane & Stina Torjesen 363 «All makt åt regionerna». Centralism, lokalism och utveckling i rysk politik Katja Ruutu 377 «Det er søtt og vakkert å dø for Stalin!» Jardar Østbø Velkommen til Internett 391 Russisk økonomi på nettet Bokomtaler 395 The Russian Market Economy Omtalt av Bjørn Brunstad 398 Russian Military Reform and Russia’s Security Envi- ronment Omtalt af Ib Faurby 402 The Handbook of Political Change in Eastern Europe, Second Edition Recenserad av Mats Öhlén 406 Fascism, Liberalism, and Social Democracy in Central Europe: Past and Present Recenserad av Björn Badersten 409 Rusland i stykker Omtalt av Marit Christensen 412 Reise udi Rusland. Første udgave fra 1743 med forord af Ludvig Holberg Omtalt af Michael Harbsmeier 416 Manoeuvres of National Interest: Internationalism and Nationalism in the Emerging Kadarist Criticism of Romania 1968–1972 Omtalt af Steven Sampson 420 En terrorists memoarer Omtalt af Inge Marie Larsen 423 Nye bøker i Norden Forord Russisk økonomi: Hvor markedsstyrt? Hvor politisert? Hvor stabil? Russisk økonomi har opplevd både katastrofal nedgang og spektaku- lær vekst siden markedskreftene ble sluppet løs i 1992. Etter rubelkri- sen i 1998 har imidlertid de fleste indikatorer pekt oppover, og de siste tre årene har Russlands BNP vokst med i gjennomsnitt 6,8 prosent per år. Er russerne nå gjennom det verste, eller er den pågående rettssa- ken rundt Yukos et varsel om nye kriser? Meningene er delte. Martin Paldam prøver i den første artikkelen i denne utgaven av Nordisk Østforum å sette dagens økonomiske utvikling inn i en større kontekst. Paldam ser på langtidsvekst og hvordan Russland scorer på en rekke ulike indikatorer sammenlignet med andre land. Konklusjonen hans er at Russland i dag fremstår som et vanlig mellominnkomstland. Men med det er debatten ikke over. For er dette mellominnkomst- landet en markedsøkonomi? Ja, svarer Anders Åslund, seniorforsker ved Carnegiestiftelsen og tidligere rådgiver for den russiske regjerin- gens reformpolitikk, det ble den allerede i 1993. Nei, svarer professor Stefan Hedlund, markedseksperimentet var en fiasko, og bare en i rekken av mislykkede russiske reformer. Christina Lund Jakobsen har sett på de to forskernes diametralt forskjellige oppfatning av markeds- reformene i et forsøk på å avdekke de to forskernes underforståtte forståelse av mulighet for styring, det vil si deres forståelse av forhol- det mellom idealer og virkelighet i en styringsprosess. I neste artikkel går vi fra kampen om fortolkningen av russiske økonomiske reformer til en ikke mindre viktig strid, nemlig kampen om historien. Ingen annen del av Europa led større menneskelige og ma- terielle tap under 2. verdenskrig enn dagens Hviterussland. Sovjetmyn- dighetens løsning på det hviterussiske krigstraumet var ifølge Barbara Törnquist-Plewa en mytologisering av krigsmotstanden, en patriotisk historieskrivning om de hviterussiske partisanenes heroiske innsats. I dag utfordres den offisielle historien av både hviterussiske opposisjo- nelle – som fremstiller Hviterussland som et offer for både nazismen og kommunismen – og av vestlige historikere, som problematiserer hviterussernes holdning til Holocaust og deres nazisympatier. Diskursen påvirker selvsagt ikke bare hvordan vi oppfatter en krig i ettertid, men også våre oppfatninger av pågående og potensielle kon- flikter. S. Neil MacFarlane og Stina Torjesen tar opp nettopp dette pro- blemet i et casestudium av spredningen av håndvåpen i Kirgisistan. Basert på en husstandsundersøkelse finner de at det er iøynefallende diskrepans mellom hvilken rolle håndvåpensituasjonen spiller i sikker- hetsdiskursen rundt Sentral-Asia, og den faktiske spredningen i Kirgi- sistan. Ifølge forfatterne fører manglende forståelse for regional variasjon og en diskurs som overdramatiserer krisetegn og neglisjerer stabiliserende faktorer, til at vi opererer med et svært feilaktig trussel- bilde. Tilbake i Russland gir Katja Ruutu oss nok et eksempel på sam- spillet mellom begrepsutvikling og politikk. Hun viser hvordan 1990- tallets russiske desentraliseringsdebatt må ses i lys av den sovjetiske debatten om vektlegging av «regioner» versus «sovjeter». Når Jeltsin i 1990 erklærte at regionene skulle «ta så mye suverenitet som de kunne svelge», var det ifølge Ruutu ut fra et ønske om å utfordre sovjetstruk- turens makt. At han dermed også kom til å utfordre det kommunis- tiske regimet i sin helhet, var ifølge Ruutu en uunngåelig, men neppe tilsiktet konsekvens. Vi runder av artikkeldelen med en kikk på en av de mest fargerike, ukonvensjonelle og produktive samfunnsdebattantene i dagens Russ- land, Aleksandr Dugin. «Det er søtt og vakkert å dø for Stalin!», hevder han, og Jardar Østbø har sett nærmere på hvordan nasjonalbolsjevi- ken Dugin, som ellers har en mening om det meste, fra aktuelle poli- tiske emner via ortodoksiens metafysikk til den skandaleombruste russiske popduoen Tatu, forholder seg til personen og politikeren Sta- lin. Gjennom et nærstudium av hans forfatterskap viser Østbø hvor- dan Dugin plasserer Stalin og hans utrenskninger inn i en større, geopolitisk fundert kamp mellom land- (Russland og Tyskland) og sjø- makter (USA og Storbritannia) om verdensherredømme. I internettspalten vår kommer vi tilbake til temaet russisk økonomi, med en gjennomgang av både russiske og internasjonale nettsteder som omhandler økonomiske utviklingstrekk og bakgrunnsstoff. Og sist, men ikke minst, byr bokspalten på en omtale av den nyeste boken til en av nestorene i nordisk forskning på russisk økonomi, Pekka Sutela. God lesning! Redaksjonen Nordisk Øst·forum | 18 [3] 2004:Rusland 289–307 som | ISSN et almindeligt0801 – 7220 mellemindkomstland 289 Rusland som et almindeligt mellemindkomstland Martin Paldam Rusland har nu sit hidtil mest menneskevenlige samfundssystem. professor, dr. oecon., Ja, det ser sågar ud til, at landet er blevet til en dynamisk økonomi, Økonomisk Institut, med en gennemsnitlig vækstrate på godt 6 procent per år siden 1998. Aarhus Universitet Den hurtige vækst har hidtil kun varet i fem år, men efter alle pro- gnoser ser den ud til at fortsætte. Den blev sat i gang af oliepris- stigninger, men opgangen har bredt sig. Der er stadig en del af landet, der ikke har mærket opgangen, men det bliver støt en mindre del. Nu hvor tingene er faldet til ro efter transitionen fra socialismen, kan vi se, at Rusland1 har udviklet sig fra at være et usædvanligt mikland (mellemindkomstland) til et mere almindeligt mikland som Mexico eller Malaysia.2 Ligheden ligger naturligvis ikke i de histo- riske og kulturelle forudsætninger. Den vedrører den økonomiske, sociale og politiske struktur, såvel som niveauet for en række pro- blemer som fordelingsskævhed, demokratibrist, korruption og kri- minalitet. 1 Artiklen sammenligner Rusland med den Russiske Sovjetrepublik (RSFSR), når der anlægges et længere perspektiv. Hele Sovjetunionen og det Russiske Impe- rium omtales dog også. 2 Det var et af de vigtigste budskaber i min bog Udviklingen i Rusland, Polen og Baltikum (Paldam 2002a), og i den førende russisk-amerikanske økonom Andrei Shleifers seneste artikel (Shleifer & Treisman 2003). Det nærmest sammenlig- nelige land er nok Brasilien, der har næsten det samme BNP pr indbygger, og lidt flere indbyggere, men til gengæld kun det halve areal. Brasilien har en noget skævere indkomstfordeling, men den er ligeledes meget regionalt bestemt, så- dan at der både er moderne dynamiske storbyer og store stagnerende områder. NUPI SEPTEMBER 04 290 Martin Paldam Ruslands levestandard internationalt set I sovjetperioden blev det ofte diskuteret, hvor meget lavere Sovjet- unionens levestandard var i forhold til det typiske vestlige land. Mange af deltagerne i diskussionen havde stærke interesser i talle- ne og vækstprocenter fløj om ørene på de deltagende. Nu, hvor sam- menligninger er blevet lettere, er det tydeligt, at mange af disse tal var fantasi og propaganda. Først nogle ord om talmaterialet. Bruttonationalprodukt forkor- tes BNP. Når det måles pr indbygger, kaldes det for bnp. Tabel 1 og 2 viser dels landenes BNP omregnet med de officielle valuta- kurser, BNP-val, dels omregnet med beregnede købekraft-kurser, BNP-PPP. Med de sædvanlige forbehold bruges bnp-PPP som mål for levestandarden. Verdensbanken deler alle lande i fire grupper: Rige, fattige og mik – sidstnævnte deles igen i øvre og nedre. Tabel 1 viser også de grænser, hvor man deler for at få denne gruppering. Det er naturligvis en ret tilfældig inddeling, men den giver dog en vis orden. De to store grupper i tabel 1 er de to nederste. Tabel 1. Verdens økonomiske hovedstruktur 2001 Målt i US $ Befolkning BNP-val (valutakurs) BNP-PPP (købekraft) PPP-ratio** Gruppe: milliarder milliarder bnp-val nedre milliarder bnp-PPP nedre grænse grænse* Rige lande 957
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