PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS Social Indicator

Home , Presidential Secretariat, Rauff Hakeem

An Opinion Poll On Peace

Peace Confidence Index (PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS Social Indicator

November 2002

© 2002 Social Indicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives hile many studies have been conducted on various aspects of W this conflict, none have attempted to capture the changes in public perception over a period of time. The lack of such a study was identified as a significant void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) under the Governance and Institutional Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka, will be conducted bi-monthly to gauge the impact of local and international political developments on public attitudes towards the peace process.

Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

CONTENTS

• INTRODUCTION 01 • KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 • FINDINGS AT A GLANCE 05 • PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) 07 TOP-LINE RESULTS

PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE 07

SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT 10

CONFIDENCE 11

THE PEACE PROCESS 15

INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION 16

NORWEGIAN FACILITATION 17

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT 19

• RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 20

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION 20

LTTE 23

PEACE TALKS IN THAILAND 30

INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPS) 34

EASTERN MUSLIMS 38

OSLO 40

FOREIGN AID 42

PA STATEMENT 43

• ANNEX

Peace Confidence Index Page 1 Top-line Results

INTRODUCTION

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardised questions which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another.

Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of the public are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate.

SCOPE & METHODOLOGY

The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 1,419 respondent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed.

Nine waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June, September and November 2001 and January, March, May, July and September 2002. The latest wave was conducted in November 2002. This publication presents only the top-line results of the November 2002 survey.

The results of these ten waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

Peace Confidence Index Page 2 Top-Line Results

KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS OCTOBER – DECEMBER 2002

• LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran is sentenced to 200 years in jail for his role in the 1996 Central Bank bombing. (31st October 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • A curfew is imposed once again in Maligawatte, Modera, Grandpass, Maradana, Keselwatta and Kotahena police divisions as more clashes between Sinhala and Muslim communities are reported. (31st October 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Japan’s premier international diplomat and former UN Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Mr. Yasushi Akashi is scheduled to meet with the LTTE leaders to discuss a range of issues. (2nd November 2002)-(The Island) • The government and the LTTE clinch three crucial agreements on political, military and economic matters marking a breakthrough in Norwegian-brokered peace talks. (3rd November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • The LTTE undertakes to hand over land and property belonging to Muslims (now allegedly being cultivated or occupied by Tamils in the North-East province) back to them in about two months' time. (4th November 2002)-(The Island) • The Most. Ven. Udugama Sri Buddharakkita Mahanayake Thera of the Asgiriya Chapter extends his full support for the peace process and blessings to both the Government and the LTTE. (4th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • As cohabitation arrangements are virtually falling apart, President Chandrika Kumaratunga discloses that a proposal has come from the UNF for the formation of a national government. (5th November 2002)- (Daily Mirror) • As a gesture of goodwill and commitment to the peace process, the LTTE blows up some 6,000 landmines that have been hidden in the Kilinochchi area, the state television Rupavahini reports. It said the explosion of the landmines is a "significant gesture". (6th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • The government and the LTTE have agreed to move directly to political issues, the Cabinet Spokesman announces. (7th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe writing to the nine dissident SLMC MPs assures them that the rights and security of the Muslims in the North East would be ensured in any solution to the ethnic conflict. (7th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • The Chairman of the commission which probed the attack and shooting at the STF camp at Kanchirankudah in October 2002 asks the LTTE to take severe action against an area leader who had misled and provoked a crowd into attacking the camp. (8th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • The seven Sri Lanka Muslim Congress MPs who boycotted parliament return to the House with their leader, Minister A.L.M. Athaullah when the budget debate resumed. (9th November 2002)-(The Island) • The setting up of LTTE ‘police stations’ and ‘courts of law’ in the Eastern sector perturbs the Muslims in the East forcing SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem to write to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe today. (11th November 2002)-(The Island) • The JVP office in Maharagama is smashed and two party members injured as the party accused the government of trying to violently suppress and sabotage its annual convention scheduled today. (12th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Celebrations to mark the eighth anniversary of the presidency of Chandrika Kumaratunga take place at the Presidential Secretariat. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, his ministers and government parliamentarians do not attend. (12th November 2002)-(The Island) • The government, responding to President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s proposal to set up a National Committee for Ethnic Reconciliation and Sustainable Peace, says that the opposition would not have a decision making role in the peace talks with the LTTE but will be briefed about the discussions on a regular basis. (14th November 2002)-(The Island) • The People's Alliance launches its strongest attack on Norway and warns the UNF government that it would withdraw support and block parliamentary approval of any solution if the PA was kept out of the ongoing peace talks. (15th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga "backs down" from her previous refusal to appoint seven new non- cabinet ministers and a deputy minister. (16th November 2002)-(The Island) • The EPDP accuses the LTTE of blocking the re-opening of its Delft Island office which was closed down several weeks ago subsequent to an alleged LTTE-led attack on it. (17th November, 2002)-(The Island)

Peace Confidence Index Page 3 Top-Line Results

• The president, secretary and treasurer of the Students Council of Sri Jayawardenapura University were taken into custody over the death of Ovitigala Vidanage Samantha, a student of Sri Jayawardenapura University, according to Nugegoda police. (17th November 2002-(The Island) • The EPDP announces that they would vacate the Delft Island if the LTTE also vacates the island. (18th November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • The sub-committee on Immediate Humanitarian and Rehabilitation Needs in the North and East meets in Kilinochchi. (18th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) says that two senior LTTE commanders seriously violated the ceasefire agreement of February 2002 by travelling from Mullaitivu to Vakarai without having SLMM monitors on board their vessels. (18th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • A government source says that the donor community attending the Sri Lanka Peace Process support meeting in Oslo on 25th November, before pledging any development aid, will seek an assurance from both the UNF government and the LTTE that they would not depart from their commitment to a political settlement to the ethnic issue. (18th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • A night curfew re-imposed in Galle to control the tense situation after clashes between two communities on 18th November that left one dead, five injured and several shops damaged. (19th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • .... Meanwhile, a curfew was reclamped in the Mundalama area of Puttalam Police Division from 2 p.m. till 6 a.m. following some fresh incidents at a lagoon, where some persons who had gone to buy fish were allegedly assaulted. Earlier on Monday, police riot squads and soldiers were deployed in Madurankuliya area to implement a curfew following the initial clashes between two groups. (19th November 2002)- (www.lankapage.com) • The Voice of Tigers, the LTTE’s radio, is to go island-wide according to an announcement by LTTE. (19th November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • The Asgiriya Mahanayake makes a strong appeal to resettle some 30,000 Sinhalese who have been displaced from the North and East. (20th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Explaining the LTTE's presence at the 25th November Oslo donor conference, cabinet spokesman and Constitutional Affairs Minister G. L. Peiris says the government was "merely facing reality". (21st November 2002)-(The Island) • United States Ambassador Ashley Wills says the presence of US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage at 25th November, 2002’s Oslo meeting was a reflection of the US Government's keenness to ensure Sri Lanka's peace and prosperity. (21st November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • A large number of civilians backed by the LTTE launch a protest campaign opposite the Jaffna EPDP headquarters, demanding that the EPDP withdraw from Delft Island. (22nd November 2002)- (www.lankapage.com) • Minister Rauf Hakeem refuses the LTTE’s request to handle activities at the Trincomalee Port. (22nd November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga orders the Inspector General of Police and the Defence Secretary to strengthen the police and Navy presence at EPDP offices for the next few weeks. (22nd November, 2002)- (www.lankapage.com) • The President asks the Prime Minister to bring up, at the talks with LTTE in Oslo, the issue of alleged attacks by LTTE on a rival Tamil political group. (24th November 2002)-(AFP/www.theacademic.org) • Just two weeks after the opening of two LTTE police stations in the Eastern Province, the LTTE opens a court at Arasadithivu in the Batticaloa-Ampara. The first case taken up at the LTTE court involved a woman who was charged with preparing illicit liquor. (24th November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com/Daily Mirror) • LTTE's Chief Negotiator Anton Balasingham rejects US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's request for the LTTE to renounce violence and declare that it has abandoned its struggle for a separate state. (25th November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • In an apparent bid to revive cohabitation ties, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe reportedly gives serious thought to the proposal made by President Chandrika Kumaratunga to set up a "National Committee for Good Governance" to be chaired by the Prime Minister. (25th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • International donors meeting in Oslo on Monday 25th November pledges up to 70 million US dollars in immediate humanitarian assistance to Sri Lanka in addition to strong political support for the country's fledgling peace bid, Norway announced. (25th November 2002)-(AFP/www.lankapage.com)

Peace Confidence Index Page 4 Top-Line Results

• Indian High Commission maintains that India did not participate in the mini aid group meeting held in Oslo. (25th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • As regards LTTE courts in the east, Justice Minister W. J. M. Lokubandara declares that in terms of the Constitution, two judicial systems could not co-exist in the country and said he saw them (the LTTE courts) as an obstacle towards peace. (26th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Presidential media spokesman Harim Pieris says President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga reiterated the United States' call to the LTTE to renounce terrorism and considers this the "most opportune time in the peace process for the LTTE to lay down arms". (27th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe soon after returning from the Oslo Peace Support meeting orders IGP T.E. Anandarajah to demolish Tiger court houses allegedly set up in the government controlled areas in the East (27th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga directs the government to take immediate steps against LTTE courts and police stations in the North and East that violate the constitution of the country. (27th November 2002)-(The Island) • In his annual speech to mark ‘Heroes’ Day’, the LTTE leader makes the clearest statement yet that the Tigers had given up their demand for a separate state, and states that he is willing to settle for regional autonomy. He also warned the LTTE would not renounce violence yet despite the start of peace talks and U.S. demands to do so. (27th November 2002)-(Reuters/The Island) • The government describes as 'helpful and encouraging' a statement by LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran that the Tigers were ready to drop their demand for a separate state in exchange for substantial regional autonomy. Cabinet Spokesman G.L. Peiris said "We find much in the statement that is helpful and encouraging, though we don't agree with all of it.” (28th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Interior Minister John Amaratunga says that there are no LTTE police stations or courts in the cleared areas of the North and East. (29th November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • The ongoing peace effort receives a major impetus with the LSSP going public with the view that "the question of a political settlement to the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka has now been brought closer to realisation than at any other time". (30th November 2002)-(The Island) • The turmoil in the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) again reaches “boiling point” when SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem suspends the party's Chairman A.L.M. Athaullah and Secretary General A.L.M. Hafrath. (1st December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen says that the Oslo Peace Solidarity Conference was successful beyond expectations. (1st December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga, responding to a government proposal to restructure the army, suggests that only two extensions of service be granted to officers. (1st December 2002)-(The Island)

Peace Confidence Index Page 5 Top-Line Results

FINDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM 29TH NOVEMBER TO 10TH DECEMBER 2002

♦ There is a decline in opinion that peace will be established soon in Sri Lanka when compared to that in September 2002. Skepticism expressed mainly by the Sinhala community.

♦ Overwhelming support for peace talks remain unchanged.

♦ The declining trend in the belief that the “Government is committed to find peace through talks” continues.

♦ Since April 2002 there is steady decline in opinion that the Government goes in for talks due to its commitment to peace.

♦ Whilst the declining trend in opinion that the LTTE “ goes in for talks to fool the people” continues, when compared to September 2002 the opinion that the LTTE goes in for talks due to the realization that this war cannot be won remains unchanged in the month November 2002.

♦ The declining trend that only the Government and the LTTE should be involved in negotiations has reversed. However, Muslims and Tamils chiefly advocate the widest spectrum of involvement in the negotiation.

♦ Mainly Tamils, Muslims and Up-country Tamils say that an international third party’s involvement to solve the North East war in Sri Lanka is essential.

♦ Since June 2002, there is a steady increase of people’s approval for Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process. Though the majority of Sinhalese approve of Norway’s assistance, when compared to other ethnic communities, their approval is low.

♦ Since June 2002 a there is a growing trend amongst people who do not believe that SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). However, a notable majority amongst the Tamil, Muslim and Up-country Tamil communities believe the contrary.

♦ The belief in accusations levelled against the LTTE of engaging in abductions and extortions is gradually declining from July 2002. However, the Tamil and Up-country Tamil communities do not believe the accusations levelled against the LTTE, which is in contrast to the Sinhala and Muslim opinion.

♦ Over 70% of the Sri Lankans are aware of the 200 year sentence imposed on Mr. Velupillai Prabakaran by the High Court, for his role in the 1996 Central Bank bombing. The opinion that this sentence has a negative impact on the peace process mainly stems from the Tamil and Up-country Tamil communities. (Sinhala – 20.2%, Tamil – 70.2%, Muslim – 37.1%, Up-country Tamil – 52%)

♦ Only 39.8% of the people are aware of the Heroes’ day speech made by the LTTE leader Mr. Velupillai Prabakaran. When compared to other ethnic communities there is a notable awareness amongst the Tamil community who think it will have a positive impact on the peace process.

Peace Confidence Index Page 6 Top-Line Results

♦ There is a notable percentage (74.7%) of Sri Lankans who are aware the second round of peace talks. However, only 24.7% say they know about the decisions taken at the talks.

♦ Whilst a majority thinks that the sub-committee on political matters should be given the same priority as the other two sub-committees, over 90% of the Muslim community advocate this idea.

♦ Over 60% of Sri Lankans are satisfied with the out come of the second round of talks.

♦ An overwhelming majority (77.8%) of Sri Lankans think the return and resettlement of the IDPs should be top priority in the peace process.

♦ About half of Sri Lankans believe that the Government is committed to treating the return of the IDP as a priority, in the peace process. However, only 17.9% believe the LTTE’s commitment to the return of the IDPs.

♦ A majority (39.5%) of Sri Lankans do not know about HSZ and this mainly stems from the Muslim community. It is chiefly the Tamil community who believe that the HSZs are an impediment to the return of IDPs (37.3%).

♦ Only 27% of Sri Lankans believe that the situation of the Muslims in the East has deteriorated since the ceasefire in February 2002. However, 41.5% of the Muslims believe that the situation of the Muslims in the East has deteriorated.

♦ While 29.6% of the people believe that the interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are adequately represented in the peace talks, 36.5% are uncertain.

♦ Over 46% of the Sri Lankans who are aware of LTTE participation in the Oslo meeting of 25th of November 2002 disapprove of the LTTE’s participation. However, an overwhelming majority of the Tamil (98%) and Up-country Tamil (74.6%) communities approve of the LTTE’s participation at the Oslo meeting.

♦ A majority (59.5%) of the Sri Lankans believe that the North-East is the region that gets the bulk of the foreign aid.

♦ While a majority (45.3%) of the Sri Lankans express that they are unaware of the PA’s official statement that accused the Norwegian facilitators of being partial towards the LTTE, an overwhelming majority of the Tamil (78%) community disagree with this statement.

For further information please contact: Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: 370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Peace Confidence Index Page 27 Top-Line Results

Are you aware of the Heroes’ Day speech made by the LTTE leader Mr. Velupillai Prabhakaran on 27th November 2002?

National Breakdown

70 60.7 60

50 39.3 % 40

0 Yes No

Ethnic Breakdown

60.7 National 39.3

61.7 Up-country Tamil 38.3

58.8 Muslim No 40.3 Yes 11.8 Tamil 88.2

63.8 Sinhala 35.6

0 20406080100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 28 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the Heroes’ Day speech made by the LTTE leader Mr. Velupillai Prabhakaran on 27th November 2002, what in your opinion will be the impact of this speech on the peace process?

National Breakdown

40 35.8 35

25 21.2 % 19.4 19.4 20 15 10 4.2 5 0 Will have a positive Will have no impact Will have a negative Do not know/Not No response impact impact sure

Ethnic Breakdown

4.2 35.8 National 21.2 19.4 19.4 6.6 Up-country 12.6 8 Tamil 43.7 28.7 2 No response 31.1 Muslim 6.4 Do not know/Not sure 29.2 Will have a negative impact 26.3 Will have no impact 2.8 14.1 Will have a positive impact Tamil 0.4 10.7 69.4 0.8 41.8 Sinhala 27 18.7 9

0 20406080

Peace Confidence Index Page 29 Top-Line Results

I think the LTTE is the sole representative of the Tamil community.

National Trend

60 56.8 54.8 54.5 55 50 Agree

40 Neither agree

% nor disagree 30 Disagree 17.5 22.4 20 18 16.8 Do not know 9.3 12.9 10.4 11.6 10 9.4 8.1 10.5 10

0 May '02 September '02

Ethnic Breakdown

11.6 55 National 10 22.4 20.7 14.1 Up-country Tamil 8.8 56.4 Do not know 33.4 19.8 Muslim 21.9 Disagree 24.9

4.1 Neither agree nor disagree Tamil 4.4 2.5 89 Agree 10.2 63.6 Sinhala 10 15.1 0 20406080100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 30 Top-Line Results

THAILAND TALKS

Are you aware of the 2nd round of talks that took place in Thailand between the Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE?

National Breakdown

25.3

Yes No

74.7

Ethnic Breakdown

25.3 National 74.7

54.2 Up-country Tamil 45.8

31 No Muslim Yes 69

9.8 Tamil 90.2

24.3 Sinhala 75.6

0 102030405060708090100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 31 Top-Line Results

Are you aware of the decision to form three sub-committees on the immediate humanitarian and rehabilitation needs in the North and East, de-escalation and normalization and political matters?

National Breakdown

80 75.3 70

% 40 30 24.7

0 Yes No

Ethnic Breakdown

75.3 National 24.7

78.6 Up-country Tamil 21.4 No 71.8 Muslim Yes 28.2

54.2 Tamil 45.5 76.8 Sinhala 22.7 0 20406080100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 32 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the sub-committee(s), do you think the sub- committee on political matters should be given the same priority as the other two sub-committees?

National Breakdown

60 56.8

50 43.2

40 % 30

0 Yes No

Ethnic Breakdown

43.2 National 56.8

34.1 Up-country Tamil 65.9 No 8 Muslim Yes 91.8 32.6 Tamil 66.7

39.8 Sinhala 52.6

0 20406080100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 33 Top-Line Results

Please state your level of satisfaction with the outcome of the talks.

National Breakdown

45 38.8 40

25 23 % 20 13.8 15 12.1

10 7 5.3 5

0 Highly satisfied Somewhat Neither satisfied Somewhat Highly dissatisfied Do not know/Not satisfied nor dissatisfied dissatisfied sure

Ethnic Breakdown

5.3 12.1 7 National 13.8 38.8 23 0 1.5 5.8 Do not know/Not sure Up-country Tamil 5.8 55.4 31.5 Highly dissatisfied 2.9 8.4 0.2 Somewhat dissatisfied Muslim 19.4 44.9 24.2 Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 3.5 0 Somewhat satisfied 2.5 Tamil 3.9 32.7 Highly satisfied 56.8 3.9 14.8 8.3 Sinhala 15.4 38.9 16.7

0 102030405060%

Peace Confidence Index Page 34 Top-Line Results

INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPS)

Do you think that the return and resettlement of the IDPs should be top priority in the peace process?

National Breakdown

90 77.8 80 70

% 50

30 20 15.6 10 6.6 0 Yes No Do not know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

15.6 National 6.6 77.8

19.8 Up-country 8.2 Tamil 71.4 Do not know/Not 1.9 sure Muslim 1.7 96.4 No 6.2 Tamil 3.1 90.7 Yes

16.6 Sinhala 7 76

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 35 Top-Line Results

Is the Government committed to treating the return of the IDPs as a priority?

National Breakdown

60 49.4 50

40 34.3 % 30

20 16.3

0 Yes No Do not know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

34.3 National 16.3 49.4 39.4 Up-country Tamil 19.5 Do not 41.2 know/Not sure 22.9 Muslim 5.4 No 70.9

23 Yes Tamil 14.6 62.4 35.2 Sinhala 16.8 47.6

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 36 Top-Line Results

Is the LTTE committed to treating the return of the IDPs as a priority?

National Breakdown

50 46.5 45 40 35 28.7 % 30 24.8 25 20 15 10 5 0 Yes No Do not know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

46.5 National 28.7 24.8

43.6 Up-country Tamil 12.4 Do not know/Not 44 sure 46.7 No Muslim 5.6 47.7 Yes 16.9 Tamil 0.7 82.4

48.3 Sinhala 33.3 17.9

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 37 Top-Line Results

According to your understanding high security zones are…[Multiple Answers]

National Breakdown

45 39.5 40

35 30 24.7 25 % 20 14.2 14.7 15 10 6.9 5

0 Essential for the Necessary for the An impediment to the Do not know/Not sure No response presence of security provision of security return of the IDPs forces in the North in the North and East and East

Ethnic Breakdown

24.7 39.5 National 6.9 14.7 14.2 No response 18.3 44.2 Do not know/Not sure Up-country Tamil 22.9 6.6 7.8 An impediment to the return of the 6.5 IDPs 75.4 Muslim 2.5 Necessary for the provision of 6.9 security in the North and East 12.8 Essential for the presence of security 8.3 forces in the North and East 41 Tamil 37.3 7.1 3.1 14.4 36.8 Sinhala 3.9 16.3 15.5 0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 38 Top-Line Results

EASTERN MUSLIMS

Do you think that the situation of the Muslims in the East has deteriorated since the ceasefire in February 2002?

National Breakdown

80 73 70

60 50

40 % 30 27

0 Yes No

Ethnic Breakdown

73 National 27

83 Up-country Tamil 16.8

57.3 No Muslim 41.5 Yes

82.7 Tamil 12.5

62.3 Sinhala 27.8 0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 39 Top-Line Results

Do you think that the interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being adequately represented in the peace talks?

National Breakdown

40 36.5 35 29.6 30

25 % 18.9 20 15 15 10 5 0 Yes No Do not know/Not No response sure

Ethnic Breakdown

15 National 36.5 18.9 29.6 10.2 Up-country Tamil 19.1 29.9 31.2 No response 3.4 Muslim 31.8 Do not know/Not sure 23.8 36 No 1.9 Tamil 36.2 Yes 11.3 38.7 4.6 Sinhala 37.9 18.5 28.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 40 Top-Line Results

OSLO

Are you aware of LTTE participation at the meeting in Oslo on the 25th November 2002, of key donors in support of the peace process?

National Breakdown

49.8 50.2 50

% 30

0 Yes No

Ethnic Breakdown

50.2 National 49.8

60 Up-country Tamil 40

62 Muslim 38 No Yes

29.2 Tamil 70.8

49.8 Sinhala 49.6

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 41 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of LTTE participation at the meeting in Oslo on the 25th November 2002, do you approve or disapprove of the LTTE's participation?

National Breakdown

50 46.6 45 41 40 35 30 25 % 20 15 12.4 10 5 0 Approve Disapprove Do not know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

12.4 National 46.6 41 5 Up-country Tamil 20.3 74.6 Do not know/Not sure 27.5 Disapprove Muslim 15.6 54.8 Approve 2 Tamil0 98

12.6 Sinhala 54.4 32.5

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 42 Top-Line Results

FOREIGN AID

I believe the region that gets the bulk of foreign aid is the … [Multiple Answers]

National Breakdown

59.5 60

% 40

18.2 20 11.4 9.1 10 1.8 0 South North-East Whole country Do not No response know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

11.4 18.2 National 9.1 59.5 1.8 6.7 18.2 Up-country Tamil 19.7 45.1 2.4 No response 2 21 Do not know/Not sure Muslim 24.3 45.1 Whole country 0.8 North-East 1.4 South 16.2 Tamil 2.7 69.6 4.4 3.9 18.2 Sinhala 8 60.5 1.6

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 43 Top-Line Results

PA’S STATEMENT

The PA in an official statement on the 15th November 2002, accused Norwegian facilitators of being partial towards the LTTE.

National Breakdown

50 45.3 45 40 35 30 % 25 22.7 20.6 20 15 11.4 10 5 0 Agree Neither agree nor Disagree Do not know/Not sure disagree

Ethnic Breakdown

45.3 22.7 National 11.4 20.6 44.8 33.6 Up-country Tamil 18.1 Do not know/Not sure 2.6 54 16.7 Disagree Muslim 20.7 8.6 11.5 Neither agree nor 78 disagree Tamil 5 5.3 Agree 47 18.2 Sinhala 10.8 23.6

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 44 Top-Line Results

Are you aware of President Chandrika Kumaratunga's proposal to set up a "National Commission for Ethnic Reconciliation and Sustainable Peace" made by her in a speech to mark her eighth anniversary as President on 12th November 2002?

National Breakdown

80 70.8 70 60 50 % 40 29.2 30

10 0 Yes No

Ethnic Breakdown

70.8 National 29.2

79.8 Up-country Tamil 19.6

67.2 Muslim No 32.8 Yes 63.6 Tamil 36.4

70.6 Sinhala 29

0 20406080100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 45 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of President Chandrika Kumaratunga's proposal, what in your opinion will be the impact of this proposal on the peace process?

National Breakdown

45 42.3 40 35

30 26.3 25 % 18.4 20 15 9.9 10 5 3.1

0 Will have a positive Will have no impact Will have a negative Do not know/Not No response impact impact sure

Ethnic Breakdown

3.1 26.3 National 9.9 18.4 42.3 No response 2.8 Up-country 10.3 28.8 Tamil 25.1 Do not know/Not sure 25.3 0 21.7 Muslim 5.6 22.6 Will have a negative 48.8 impact 0 39.2 Tamil 23.9 Will have no impact 13 24 1.1 26 Will have a positive Sinhala 8.1 18.4 impact 44.3

0 102030405060 %

District sample (weighted) distribution in November 2002

DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 204 Gampaha 175 Kalutara 88 Kandy 100 Matale 33 Nuwara Eliya 51 Galle 78 Hambantota 39 Matara 59 Anuradhapura 57 Polonnaruwa 28 Kurunegala 114 Puttlam 52 Badulla 51 Monaragala 27 Ratnapura 79 Kegalle 63 Amparai 42 Batticaloa 38 Trincomalee 31 Vavuniya 12 NATIONAL 1419

Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in November 2002

ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1183 Tamil 89 Muslim 73 Up-country Tamil 74 NATIONAL 1419

ii Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

Sampling Methodology

Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is essential that the study be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.

The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in this model.

The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions. However, some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.

A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 1999’ published by the Department of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.

To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure the random selection of households.

In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KRISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI sample.

The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the same level of precision.