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Sri Lanka: Tamil Politics and the Quest for a Political Solution

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Sri Lanka: Tamil Politics and the Quest for a Political Solution SRI LANKA: TAMIL POLITICS AND THE QUEST FOR A POLITICAL SOLUTION Asia Report N°239 – 20 November 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. TAMIL GRIEVANCES AND THE FAILURE OF POLITICAL RESPONSES ........ 2 A. CONTINUING GRIEVANCES ........................................................................................................... 2 B. NATION, HOMELAND, SEPARATISM ............................................................................................. 3 C. THE THIRTEENTH AMENDMENT AND AFTER ................................................................................ 4 D. LOWERING THE BAR .................................................................................................................... 5 III. POST-WAR TAMIL POLITICS UNDER TNA LEADERSHIP ................................. 6 A. RESURRECTING THE DEMOCRATIC TRADITION IN TAMIL POLITICS .............................................. 6 1. The TNA ..................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Pro-government Tamil parties ..................................................................................................... 8 B. TNA’S MODERATE APPROACH: YET TO BEAR FRUIT .................................................................. 8 1. Patience and compromise in negotiations ................................................................................... 9 2. Other positive gestures .............................................................................................................. 11 3. No progress for Tamils in the north and east ............................................................................ 12 C. TAMIL NATIONALIST CHALLENGES TO TNA AND THE SELF-DETERMINATION QUESTION .......... 13 1. The Tamil diaspora and Tamil Nadu ........................................................................................ 13 2. Domestic Tamil critics .............................................................................................................. 14 3. A shift in tone? Return to the language of self-determination .................................................. 15 IV. THIRTEENTH AMENDMENT: BUILDING BLOCK OR STUMBLING BLOCK? ........................................................................................................................... 18 A. THE PRO-DEVOLUTION CASE AGAINST THE AMENDMENT ......................................................... 18 B. FROM STUMBLING BLOCK TO BUILDING BLOCK? ...................................................................... 19 V. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO MEANINGFUL DEVOLUTION ...................... 22 A. ADDRESSING SINHALESE RESISTANCE ....................................................................................... 22 B. ENGAGING MUSLIMS POLITICALLY ............................................................................................ 24 1. Addressing Muslim concerns and crafting a new relationship .................................................. 24 2. Political realities: the case of the 2012 Eastern Provincial Council elections ........................... 25 C. THE FORGOTTEN COMMUNITY: UPCOUNTRY TAMILS ................................................................ 27 VI. PREVENTING THE WORST, BUILDING ALLIANCES, EXPANDING THE FOCUS .................................................................................................................... 28 A. IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES .............................................................................................................. 28 B. MEDIUM-TERM STRATEGY ......................................................................................................... 28 C. THE INTERNATIONAL FACTOR ................................................................................................... 29 D. LONGER-TERM PRIORITIES ......................................................................................................... 29 1. Strengthening the TNA ............................................................................................................. 30 2. Redefining the national question, engaging with a southern reform agenda ............................ 30 VII.CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................ 32 APPENDICES A. MAP OF SRI LANKA ......................................................................................................................... 33 B. PREVIOUS DEVOLUTION PROPOSALS ............................................................................................... 34 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 36 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA SINCE 2009 ......................................................... 37 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 40 Asia Report N°239 20 November 2012 SRI LANKA: TAMIL POLITICS AND THE QUEST FOR A POLITICAL SOLUTION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS The Sri Lankan government’s refusal to negotiate seri- continues to delay the long-promised election to the north- ously with Tamil leaders or otherwise address legitimate ern provincial council – elections the TNA would be nearly Tamil and Muslim grievances is increasing ethnic tensions certain to win. Despite repeated public promises, the pres- and damaging prospects for lasting peace. The admin- ident has refused to grant even the limited powers osten- istration, led by the Sri Lanka Freedom Party of Mahinda sibly given to provincial councils under the constitution’s Rajapaksa, has refused to honour agreements with the Tamil thirteenth amendment. Instead, he and other senior officials National Alliance (TNA), broken promises to world lead- have begun to discuss the amendment’s possible repeal or ers and not implemented constitutional provisions for min- replacement by even weaker forms of devolution. imal devolution of power to Tamil-speaking areas of the north and east. Militarisation and discriminatory econom- Even as the government refuses to respond to longstand- ic development in Tamil and Muslim areas are breeding ing demands for power sharing, Tamil political power and anger and increasing pressure on moderate Tamil leaders. identity are under sustained assault in the north and east. Tamil political parties need to remain patient and keep to While Tamil leaders and nationalist intellectuals base their their moderate course, while reaching out more directly to demands for political autonomy on the idea that these re- Muslims, Upcountry Tamils and Sinhalese. International gions are the traditional areas of Tamil habitation, govern- actors should press the government more effectively for ment figures, including the president’s powerful brother speedy establishment of an elected provincial council and and defence secretary, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, follow a long full restoration of civilian government in the north, while line of Sinhala nationalist thinking and explicitly reject insisting that it commence serious negotiations with elected that the north has any privileged Tamil character. Military Tamil representatives from the north and east. and economic policies have been institutionalising this ideological position with vigour. Many believed that the end of the war and elimination of the separatist Tamil Tigers (LTTE) would open space for The de facto military occupation of the northern province greater political debate and moderation among Tamils, and biased economic development policies appear designed while encouraging the government to abandon the hard- to undermine Tamils’ ability to claim the north and east as line Sinhalese nationalism it had cultivated to support its their homeland. For many Tamils, this confirms their long- war efforts and agree to devolve meaningful power to the held belief that it was only the LTTE’s guns that placed majority Tamil-speaking northern and eastern provinces. their concerns and need for power sharing on the political While there has been an increase in democratic and mod- agenda. In the face of the government’s resistance to a fair erate voices among Tamils, the government has failed to and negotiated settlement, TNA leaders have come under respond in kind. increasing pressure from their constituencies to adopt more confrontational language and tactics. Growing demands Instead, it has adopted a policy of promising negotiations for the right to self-determination for the Tamil nation and and expanded devolution in discussions with India, the hints that separatist goals have not been permanently aban- U.S., and the UN Secretary-General, while denying these doned have, in turn, provoked harsh reactions and expres- same things when addressing its Sinhala voting base. It has sions of distrust from Sinhala leaders. refused to negotiate seriously with TNA representatives, repeatedly failing to honour promises and ultimately break- The situation is likely to remain difficult, with major ne- ing off talks in January 2012. Since then it has demanded gotiating breakthroughs unlikely in the near term. None- that the TNA join the government’s preferred vehicle, a theless, the international community
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