Peace Confidence Index 12 – Topline Results

Home , Chandrika Kumaratunga, Ferial Ashraff, Jaffna Municipal Council, Mavai Senathirajah, Milinda Moragoda, Ranil Wickremesinghe

An Opinion Poll On Peace

Peace Confidence Index (PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS Social Indicator

March 2003

© 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives hile many studies have been conducted on various aspects of W this conflict, none have attempted to capture the changes in public perception over a period of time. The lack of such a study was identified as a significant void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) under the Governance and Institutional Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka, will be conducted bi-monthly to gauge the impact of local and international political developments on public attitudes towards the peace process.

Peace Confidence Index Page 1 Top-line Results

INTRODUCTION

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardised questions which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another.

Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of the public are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate.

SCOPE & METHODOLOGY

The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 1,302 respondent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed.

Eleven waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June, September and November 2001 and January, March, May, July, September, November 2002 and January 2003. The latest wave was conducted in March 2003. This publication presents only the top-line results of the March 2003 survey.

The results of these twelve waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

Peace Confidence Index Page 2 Top-Line Results

KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS FEBRUARY 2003-APRIL 2003

• As Sri Lanka celebrates its 55th year of independence today, President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe have called on the people to put the past behind and look to a future that would usher in economic, social and cultural development in a peaceful atmosphere. (4 February 2003)–(The Island) • Except for a few black flags being hoisted on lampposts in the Thirunaveli area, The 55th Anniversary of Independence Day was celebrated in Jaffna, Vavuniya and Batticaloa on a grand scale. (4 February 2003)– (The Island) • National Bhikku Front conducts a protest campaign in Colombo against the Norwegian-led peace process, particularly to press President Chandrika Kumaratunga to expel Norwegian Ambassador Jon Westborg over his disputed role in the acquisition of powerful radio equipment for the LTTE. (5 February 2003)–(The Island on Feb 7) • Japanese Peace Ambassador Yashusi Akashi will arrive in Colombo on Monday 10 on a five-day visit, Peace secretariat sources say. (6 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • LTTE cadres, after setting their vessel alight while Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) monitors were on board, blew themselves up according to Jaffna naval sources. (7 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror/The Island) • The government has expanded political links with the LTTE as the ongoing Oslo-led talks enter a crucial stage, political sources say. Malik Samarawickrema, UNP chairman and confidante of party leader Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe hold talks on a range of issues with LTTE political wing leader Tamilselvan in Kilinochchi last week, the sources add. (8 February 2003)-(The Island) • The LTTE have begun collecting "taxes" from Government organisations like the Co-operative Wholesale Establishment (CWE), the Building Materials Corporation and the Sri Lanka Cement Corporation marketing goods in the Wanni and the Jaffna peninsula. (8 February 2003)-(The Sunday Times) • Indian High Commission sources say that a statement made by SLMM spokesman Teitur Torkelsson to the French news agency AFP stating that the LTTE boat carrying arms to Sri Lanka had an Indian registration was "irresponsible" and that the Norwegians had "not bothered to check or confirm the facts with the Navy commander, the Army spokesman or the Indian authorities before making such a statement". (8 February 2003)-(The Sunday Times) • A tussle between the government and the LTTE is taking place on the reopening of the Jaffna Public Library. Jaffna sources say that the LTTE had strongly objected to the reopening ceremony on Friday February 14 to be attended by several government ministers and had instructed the Municipal Commissioner of the Jaffna Municipal Council not to have the opening ceremony. (10 February 2003)- (The Island) • Police chief T. E. Anandarajah has reported to President Chandrika Kumaratunga that the LTTE is alleged to have carried out more than 700 abductions last year though only about 100 were reported. (11 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • The LTTE protests vehemently in the Jaffna town of Manipay after soldiers ordered removal of the belts worn by some LTTE women cadres as part of their uniform. An army riot squad was deployed after more than 100 LTTE cadres gathered in the town and tension built up. (12 February 2003)-(The Island) • Government spokesman Minister G. L. Peiris says that discussions on fiscal aspects of power sharing would be the focus of the next session of peace talks to be held in Japan. (13 February 2003)–(The Island) • Chief negotiator Anton Balasingham warns that the LTTE might break off the ceasefire agreement with the government if Manipay type incidents, in which Army, police riot squads allegedly attacked a protesting crowd, were repeated. "We condemn this brutal attack on our cadres and members of the public by the Sri Lanka Army in the strongest terms" Mr. Balasingham adds. (13 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • More than thousand people including women protested in Jaffna today against Wednesday's incidents in Manipay where the army and police riot squads allegedly attacked a crowd after a dispute over belts worn by LTTE women cadres. (14 February 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The EPDP office at Point Pedro along the Jaffna road came under LTTE attack on Thursday Feb 13th night, Point Pedro police said. (14 February 2003)-(The Island) • The LTTE who forced the cancellation of the official opening of the Jaffna Library on Friday 14 have now issued a warning to the TULF - toe their line or face the consequences. The warnings have gone down to TULF President V. Anandasangaree who was due to declare open the library. (15 February 2003)- (The Sunday Times) Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003

Peace Confidence Index Page 3 Top-Line Results

• The United States says it hoped to provide more aid to Sri Lanka this year but that it would depend on the government and LTTE showing the political will to pursue peace. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage praised both sides for respecting a nearly one-year truce, saying this move had restored some confidence among their people. (16 February 2003)–(Reuters/The Island) • Japan stands unwavering to help Lanka despite the strident reaction of the LTTE leadership in the wake of the Delft incident on February 7 and the recent clash between the government troops and the LTTE, which gave rise to concerns over a possible tilt in the Sri Lankan peace process. "One has to discount the quick reactions by one side or the other," Japanese envoy Yasushi Akashi says. (16 February 2003)- (Daily Mirror) • The Opposition expressed serious concern over exclusion of Sinhala representatives from three committees to be appointed to review land and all other related issues in the Ampara, Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts on a priority basis. The government and the LTTE agreed on the formation of committees at the fifth session of peace talks at the Norwegian Embassy in Berlin. The committees will consist of six representatives of the Muslim population and six representatives of the LTTE. (18 February 2003)-(The Island) • Peaceful hartals are staged by the LTTE in Jaffna and Batticaloa to protest the recent Manipay incident in which LTTE female cadres, journalists and civilians were assaulted by riot police in Manipay. SLMM Batticaloa chief Heikki Hulkkonen says the hartals were being staged in the Tamil areas of Chenkalady, Valaichchenai and Batticaloa town. (19 February 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Attempts by LTTE to acquire sophisticated surface-to-air missiles and other military items from Russia in January 2003 have come to light. Their efforts have been laid bare by the Russian Ambassador to Sri Lanka, Mikhail G. Karpov, in a 'Non-Paper' he handed over to the Foreign Ministry in Colombo. (22 February 2003)–(The Sunday Times) • Government peace negotiators were in touch with their LTTE counterparts on February 23 night as SLMM officials pulled back the rebels and the Navy from a possible confrontation in Trincomalee. Navy sources say the crisis started as seven armed LTTE cadres began checking vehicles after entering the government controlled Thiriyaya area in Trincomalee. (23 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • In a live television address to the nation to mark the first anniversary of signing the ceasefire agreement with the LTTE, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe assured the country that one legal system, one army and one police force would prevail as a result of a final political settlement to the peace process. (23 February 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Deputy Head Hagrup Haukland says the Kuchchaveli-Thiriyaya dispute as "the most serious incident on land" because both parties were prepared to use arms and fire at each other when the monitors arrived on the scene to defuse the tension. (24 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) says it would ask the Norwegian facilitators to intervene on behalf of a soldier and a policeman being held in Tiger jail. (25 February 2003)–(The Island) • The LTTE in a sudden change of heart agrees to release a corporal and a police constable soon without giving any date after the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission expressed deep concern over the LTTE's earlier refusal to release them. SLMM deputy chief Hagrup Haukland says the LTTE had informed the SLMM that the two detainees would be released soon. (25 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • Government’s chief peace negotiator Minister G. L. Peiris, answering a question at the Commonwealth Press Union Biennial Conference at the Trans Asia Hotel, says that he "cannot say with all sincerity" that military training and arms procurement by the LTTE had stopped. (26 February 2003)–(The Island) • A new political party 'Ashraff Congress’ launched today evening by the SLMC dissidents who are hoping to break the SLMC monopoly over Muslim politics. The party has Highways Minister A.L.M. Athauallah as its Chairman and was formed in the wake of an interim injunction issued by the Colombo district court suspending the Athaullah faction from holding any position in the SLMC High Command. (26 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • Government's Chief peace negotiator and Minister Prof. G.L. Peiris Addressing the Commonwealth Press Union Biennial Conference in Colombo says a possible federal structure under the peace settlement would not be based on any particular model but would extract from various models and create a home grown one using creativity and taking into account the cultures and traditions of the country. (26 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • Defence Secretary Austin Fernando will lead a four-member government delegation to discuss important issues such as violations and human rights with Batticaloa district LTTE leader Karuna in Batticaloa. (27 February 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The World Bank agrees to extend financial assistance for rehabilitation activities and emergency humanitarian needs in the North. An agreement on World Bank aid was signed in Kilinochchi on Friday February 28. The World Bank funds will go towards financing small-scale sub-projects in rural and urban areas, resettlement and the granting of relief to the displaced. (28 February 2003)-(www.lankapage.com on March 2) Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003

Peace Confidence Index Page 4 Top-Line Results

• The LTTE reportedly warns the TULF not to issue statements on its own regarding important issues amidst reports of a split in the main Tamil political party and the possibility of a pro-LTTE leader taking over. A meeting between LTTE political wing leader S. P. Thamilchelvan and a TULF delegation led by the pro-LTTE Mavai Senathirajah, the TULF was told that statements should not be issued without the consent of the LTTE. This came in the wake of the major controversy over the reopening of the Jaffna library. (1 March 2003)-(The Sunday Times) • The people of Jaffna accorded a warm welcome today to Power and Energy Minister Karu Jayasuriya, who visited the area to open 15 rural electricity projects to be completed at a cost of Rs. 100 million from an Asian Development Bank loan. (2 March 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem, NUA leader Feriel Ashraff and other Muslim frontliners make a direct appeal to Norway for the inclusion of an independent Muslim delegation at the peace talks between the government and the LTTE. At a meeting in Colombo with Norwegian Ambassador Jon Westborg, the Muslim leaders ask the facilitators to favourably consider this move which would take the peace process to a wider scale. (4 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • Under a ceasefire agreement reached in February last year, the government has released over 1000 terrorist suspects, an authoritative source said yesterday, adding that the government was in the process of reviewing the remaining cases. (6 March 2003)-(The Island) • The Court of Appeal issues notice on the Norwegian Ambassador and the Minister of Mass Communication among others in a writ application asking for an order to quash the radio licence issued to the LTTE. (6 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • The government agrees to have an independent Muslim delegation at the next round of peace talks with the LTTE in Japan later this month according to informed sources. The agreement was reached at a high- level meeting at Temple Trees with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Minister Milinda Moragoda on the government side while SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem and NUA leader Ferial Ashraff led the Muslim delegation. (7 March 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The Government has decided to resettle former residents in 38 selected villages within the Vavuniya High Security Zone from today. It was decided at a meeting with the Vavuniya Government Agent K. Ganesh, Wanni Army Commander Major General S. Chandrapala and Vavuniya LTTE political Head Elilan and other security officials there on Saturday to go ahead with the resettlement. (9 March 2003)– (Daily Mirror) • An LTTE cargo ship suspected to be carrying arms was sunk by the Navy after a two and a half hour gun battle about 185 nautical miles North-East of Mullaitivu today morning. A Naval spokesman said that three sailors and an officer were injured in the cross fire in international waters. "We do not know what the LTTE casualties were but ten of them were spotted on the 400 - 500 tonne cargo ship which was carrying war like material" he adds. (10 March 2003)-(The Island) • A joint opposition alliance today demanded that the government step down from office and vowed to return to office at the next general elections. Opposition front liners told a gathering of about one hundred thousand people who came to the Town Hall grounds that they were not against peace but were not willing to see the country divided. (10 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • While diplomatic moves were afoot to keep the Norwegian brokered peace process afloat following Monday's incident off Mullativu, Defence Minister Tilak Marapana has responded to an LTTE letter, saying that the conduct of the LTTE ship confirms that it was carrying warlike material in contravention of the ceasefire agreement. (11 March 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The LTTE says it is at the "end of its tether" after the sinking of one of its ships killing 11 crewmembers, but would remain in the Norwegian-backed peace talks. The LTTE, in remarks published on a pro-rebel Web site www.tamilnet.com, said Monday's sinking of a vessel by the Sri Lankan Navy would not lead to a hardening of its positions at next week's peace talks in Japan. (12 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • A committee appointed by Malwatta Mahanayake most Venerable Rambukwelle Sri Vipassi thera to study the feasibility of introducing a federal system to the country headed by retried supreme court Judge S. W. Walpita requests the public to submit representations on the matter. (12 March 2003)–(The Island) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga assures Muslim leaders that she and the PA are supporting the proposals for an independent Muslim delegation at the peace talks and the setting up of a separate administrative unit for Muslims, SLMC sources say. They say the assurance was given by the President at a meeting with SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem, Noordeen Mashoor of the Athaullah faction and NUA leader Ferial Ashraff at President's House. (13 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • The former Secretary General of the Amnesty International, Mr. Ian Martin, visits Kilinochchi and holds a meeting with Mr. Anton Balasingham and S.P. Thamilselvan of the LTTE, where the discussions focused on human rights and the rights of children on women, sources say. (13 March 2003)- (www.tamilnet.com) Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003

Peace Confidence Index Page 5 Top-Line Results

• The leader of the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) peace team and Minister Prof. G.L. Peiris addressing a seminar for principals of national schools in Colombo Friday said that the United States of America (USA) has gifted a coast guard frigate to the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN), sources in Colombo said. The SLN sources said the coast guard frigate "Courageous" is US$ 150 million and was obtained with a US government grant. (14 March 2003)–(www.tamilnet.com) • An LTTE team leaves the country for the Hakone peace talks in Japan. (15 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • The peace secretariat of the LTTE launches its official website from its headquarters in the Vanni, and the website, www.lttepeacesecretariat.com, will regularly carry the official press releases, current updates, events and photographs of the peace process, LTTE sources at the peace secretariat in Kilinochchi say. (16 March 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) • Twenty-eight peace organizations have urged the government and the LTTE not to go back to war even, if obstacles come in the way of the peace drive. Inter Religious Peace Foundation has sent a memorandum signed by 28 organizations to both parties. (17 March 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • Japanese diplomats in Colombo say that March 18th's talks between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE in Japan will change the Japanese government's earlier policy from being a mere good wisher of the peace process to becoming more pro active in assisting with development aid for Sri Lanka's war ravaged north and east as well as in facilitating the peace process. Earlier, the Japanese insisted they would not hand out any development aid until a final peace agreement is signed between the SL government and Tamil tiger rebels." (17 March 2003)-(www.theacademic.org - SLT 9.10 a.m.) • The sixth session of peace talks commenced today at Hakone, Japan. The government delegation is headed by Hon. Prof. G.L. Peiris and included Hon. Milinda Moragoda, Hon. Rauf Hakeem and Ambassador Bernard Goonetilleke. The LTTE delegation is headed by Dr. Anton Balasingham and includes Mr. S.P. Tamilselvan, Mr. Vinayagamurthy Muralitharan (Karuna) and Mrs. Adele Balasingham. The two sides discussed the recent incident of a LTTE vessel being sunk off the Mullaitivu coast and how effective safeguards could be implemented to prevent the recurrence of such incidents. It is likely to result in the two parties initiating a dialogue to formulate modalities to address the issue. (18 March 2003)-(Web release from the official website of Government's Secretariat for Coordinating the Peace Process http://www.peaceinsrilanka.org/insidepages/Pressrelease/WebRel/March03/Peacetalks6webrel.asp) • K. Ragupathy, a Tamil working for army intelligence was shot dead today at around 7.30 p.m. at Mount Lavinia. According to police, Ragupathy was gunned down by two men on a bicycle while he walked down Peiris Avenue at Mount Lavinia together with one of his children. The police and army believe the two assailants are members of the LTTE's pistol gang. Police said according to information received the two LTTE suspects hail from Pudirippu in Batticaloa. (18 March 2003)- (www.theacademic.org) • Three sea tigers who were reportedly transporting arms from Wanni to Sampur in a dinghy boat were arrested by the navy early yesterday morning after the suspects threw the offending cargo overboard at a point believed to be 50 to 700 meters deep. The incident occurred off the sea of Trincomalee closer to Chapel Island. (18 March 2003)–(www.lankapage.com) • Sri Lanka Navy is strongly opposed to any changes, which would give the LTTE greater freedom at sea. News reports say that the Navy has expressed its concern about the LTTE proposed amendments to the ceasefire agreement, which appears to have the backing of the Norwegian facilitators. (19 March 2003)-(www.theacademic.org) • Sri Lankan negotiators salvaged their formal peace talks at Hakone, Japan today thanks to Norwegian diplomacy and the prospect of Japanese cash, diplomats and officials say. Sri Lanka's chief negotiator G. L. Peiris shook hands and posed for pictures with his rebel counterpart Anton Balasingham outside the venue for the talks removing doubts over a possible rebel walkout prompted by the sinking of a rebel merchant ship on March 10, 2003. Talks host Japan's special peace envoy to Sri Lanka, Yasushi Akashi became the first outsider, other than the Norwegian peace brokers, to have a seat at the talks. (19 March 2003)-(AFP/Daily Mirror) • As the sixth session of peace talks began at Hakone, Japan, the LTTE warned it would be compelled to look for an alternative to the peace process in the event of a sudden ouster or a collapse of the UNF government according to LTTE Chief negotiator Anton Balasingham He adds that the LTTE would decide on this alternative course of action with the full backing of the international community. (18 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror) • The World Bank has established the North East Reconstruction Fund to expedite community development and other matters relating to war-ravaged areas. The government and the LTTE have also started a subcommittee on immediate humanitarian and rehabilitation needs. (21 March 2003)– (www.lankapage.com) • Seventeen people, including three Sri Lankans, went missing in an attack on a Chinese fishing vessel that took place off the eastern coast The navy said all 17 may have died, while nine others were rescued by another Chinese boat nearby. (23 March 2003)–(AP- 05:35 EST/www.theacademic.org) Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003

Peace Confidence Index Page 6 Top-Line Results

• Terror has increasingly been used to prevent the people from lodging complaints against the LTTE with the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, a report by the University Teachers' on Human Rights (Jaffna) stated recently. To divert people from the SLMM, the LTTE has to give hope that coming to them is of some use. It would unexpectedly release a few or spread rumours giving rise to a flutter of hope among parents of conscripts. (24 March 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • A delegation of the political affairs committee of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) consisting of twenty one members left Killinochchi earlier today to begin its visit to the Nordic countries to study aspects of federalism, constitutional frameworks and administrative structures employed in those countries. (30 March 2003)-(www.lttepeacesecretariat.com/www.tamilnet.com) • The rebels attacked a navy vessel carrying around 1,200 security personnel close to eastern Trincomalee port, a defence official said on condition of anonymity. The troops were being transported from Trincomalee to northern Jaffna. The rebels were hiding amid 15 to 20 fishing boats, a navy official said. (31 March 2003)–(www.lankapage.com/ and http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030331/ap_wo_en_ge/as_gen_sri_lanka_sea_ba ttle_3) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga, meeting the diplomatic community for the first time in twelve months on March 31, assured them that the search for a peaceful resolution to the ethnic conflict would proceed without pause regardless of who is in power. The President had summoned the diplomats to the President's House to make a brief presentation on three key issues - peace, political cohabitation and the state of the economy. (31 March 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The LTTE reiterates that it has no intention to engage in a war again. The LTTE leaders made these remarks when they met Power and Energy Minister Karu Jayasuriya at the Karadhiyanaru camp in Batticaloa recently. (31 March 2003)–(www.lankapage.com) • The LTTE reportedly opens fire on a Navy merchant vessel carrying troops, wounding at least two crewmembers who returned fire destroying an LTTE dingy, the SLMM said. (31 March 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • A group of de-mining experts from the US’ Quick Reaction De-mining Force (QRDF), assisted by Colombo’s US Embassy is now in Sri Lanka to resume de-mining activities on the Jaffna peninsula. These experts, headed by Mr. Don Smith on Thursday (27) after a preliminary feasible and surveillance study of respective areas in the north began visiting the affected areas along with their sniffing dogs. (31 March 2003)-(http://www.army.lk/News_Reports/2003/march/281.htm) • The LTTE denies involvement in March 31st night's attack on a Navy vessel, raising suspicions of unidentified armed groups operating in the Trincomalee area. "It is possible that armed groups not belonging to the LTTE are operating in the area. Some of them may have had links with the LTTE in the past, some others may have connections with the outfit even now," Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Spokesman Teitur Torkelsson says. (1 April 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The US Embassy today said that the LTTE will not be invited for a meeting scheduled to take place in Washington DC on April 14 to discuss ways and means of reaching a consensus on financial support for Sri Lanka. (2 April 2003)–(The Island) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s spokesman Harim Peiris today cautioned the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission to be "careful about what it says as it would lose credibility”. (2 April 2003)-(The Island)

Peace Confidence Index Page 7 Top-Line Results

FINDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM 31ST MARCH TO 10TH APRIL 2003

♦ 61.9% express their uncertainty as to when there will be peace in Sri Lanka. Over 66% of the Sinhala community, 31% of the Tamil community and over 54% of the Muslim community are unable to indicate when there will be peace in Sri Lanka while 49.8% of the Up-country Tamil community feel that there will be peace soon. (Ref. Page 13)

♦ When people were asked what they believe was the origin/cause(s) of the war in Sri Lanka 36.3% said ‘Communal politics’ while 20.4% said ‘Discrimination against Tamils. There is a decline in the belief that ‘Discrimination against Tamils’ was the origin/cause of the war (34.5% in January 2002 to 20.4% in March 2003). (Ref. Page 14)

♦ A majority (86.7%) continues to believe that peace can be achieved through ‘Peace talks’. (Ref. Page 15)

♦ A majority (41.8%) believes that the lack of political will is the reason why there hasn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15 odd years. This opinion is held mainly by the Sinhala (43.3%) and Tamil (45%) communities respectively. There is a decline in the opinion that there hasn’t been a solution due to ‘Corrupt military and political leaders’ from 41.4% in January 2003 to 32.7% in March 2003. (Ref. Page 16)

♦ While the perception that the Government is committed to find peace through talks continues to decline (70.2% in July 2002 to 50.1% in March 2003), the perception that the LTTE is committed to find peace has fallen from 29% in January 2003 to 19.7% in March 2003. (Ref. Page 17 and Page 18)

♦ 22% of the Sinhala community believe in the involvement of only the Government and LTTE while 32.6% of the Tamil community believe in the involvement of an International third party as well. Both the Muslim (40.4%) and Sinhala (17.6%) communities advocate the widest range of involvement in the negotiations, while 28.9% of the Tamil community believe that only the Government, Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and other Tamil parties should be involved in the negotiations. (Ref. Page 21)

♦ Overall approval of Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process continues to decrease from 46.3% in November 2002, to 42.3% in January 2003, to 38% in March 2003. While approval for Norwegian assistance comes mostly from the Tamil community (94.9%), 34.8% of the Sinhala community expresses their disapproval of the same. (Ref. Page 23)

♦ In March 2003, a majority (43%) of those aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the ceasefire believe that such a monitoring mission will have a positive impact on the success of the ceasefire agreement. This is an increase from 37.5% in January 2003. A further 26.7% believe that such a monitoring mission is essential for the success of the ceasefire agreement. (Ref. Page 26)

♦ When asked whether they think the SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement, a majority (32.8%) disagrees, an increase from 15.7% in May 2002 and 27.6% in January 2003. (Ref. Page 27)

Peace Confidence Index Page 8 Top-Line Results

♦ 30.6% express their disagreement when asked whether the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement. There is a decreasing trend in those who agree that the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement from 30.5% in November 2002 to 24% in March 2003. (Ref. Page 28)

♦ 37.6% are aware that the Government and the LTTE have announced that they are committed to finding a solution based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka. (Ref. Page 30)

♦ Of those aware that the Government and the LTTE have announced that they are committed to finding a solution based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, 33.3% approve of this agreement. This approval stems mainly from the Tamil (97%), Muslim (58.2%) and Up-country Tamil (68.1%) communities. (Ref. Page 31)

♦ Television (67.1%) seems to be the most popular medium through which people have heard of federalism while Newspaper (48.9%) follows close behind. Radio (21.4%) is also another popular medium. (Ref. Page 32)

♦ Of those who have heard of federalism, 18% of the Sinhala community identify federalism to be the devolution of power while 44.6% did not have a response. 34.4% of the Tamil community and 29% of the Muslim community identify federalism as a system in which a small state is governed under a large state.

♦ 19.4% believe that a federal system is the best way of governing this country. (Ref. Page 33)

♦ 32.1% think that a federal state will lead to secession. This opinion is held mainly by the Sinhala community (34.1%). (Ref. Page 34)

♦ In March 2003, 35.9% agree that Tamils will have more benefits within a federal structure. While a majority (44.5%) disagrees that the Sinhalese will have more benefits within a federal structure, a majority (37%) cannot say whether Muslims will have more benefits within such a federal structure. (Ref. Page 35 to Page 37)

♦ A majority of the Tamil (82.6%), Muslim (41.7%) and Up-country Tamil (69.5%) communities believe that within a federal structure everyone will equally benefit, while 19.6% of the Sinhala community believe everyone will equally benefit. (Ref. Page 38)

♦ While 19.5% do not agree with any form of federalism for Sri Lanka, 29.8% agree with some form of federalism. However, 35.8% don’t know or are unsure. (Ref. Page 39)

♦ 31.4% say they will agree with a federal solution if it is approved by a majority of Sri Lankans in comparison to 27.5% who will not agree. 27.1% don’t know or are not sure. (Ref. Page 40)

♦ A majority (65.8%) do not think that people are being adequately informed about federalism. (Ref. Page 41)

Peace Confidence Index Page 9 Top-Line Results

♦ Of those aware of the 6th round of peace talks held in Hakone, Japan. A further 44.8% of are aware of the Government’s proposal to hold local government elections in the North and East and the LTTE’s announcement that it will favourably consider supporting the holding of these elections. (Ref. Page 42)

♦ 56.1% of the people, who are aware of the Government’s proposal to hold local government elections in the North and East, believe that it will have a positive impact. (Ref. Page 43)

♦ 13.3% of Sri Lankans are aware that the Government and the LTTE have asked their international human rights advisor, Mr. Ian Martin, to submit a proposal integrating human rights into the peace process at the 7th session of the peace talks. Of those who are aware of this request, 63.5% believe that it will have a positive impact on the peace process (Ref. Page 44 and Page 45)

♦ 54.1% of the Sri Lankans are satisfied with the progress of the peace talks. (Ref. Page 46)

♦ In March 2003, 26.2% of the people perceive that the interests and the concerns of the Muslims of the East are not being adequately represented at the peace talks. This perception is held mostly by the Muslim (54.9%) and Sinhala (25.8%) communities. This national trend shows an increase from 22.9% in January 2003. (Ref. Page 47)

♦ An overwhelming majority of the Muslim community (89.3%) believe that there should be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace talks and a majority of the Tamil (49%) and Up-country Tamil (44.1%) are in agreement with this view. (Ref. Page 48)

♦ The cost of living continues to be the most important issue for a majority (49.3%) of the people in March 2003. For 18.9% of the people, it is the ethnic conflict, while 15.5% say it is unemployment. (Ref. Page 49)

♦ While 34.7% say that the peace process has had no effect on their living conditions, 28.7% say that it has had a negative effect and 26.3% say that it has had a positive effect. (Ref. Page 50)

♦ 71.3% are aware of the talks between the SLFP and the JVP in March 2003. This awareness is largely amongst the Sinhala community (77.4%). Of those aware of this potential alliance, a majority (31.1%) believes that it will have a negative impact on the peace process. While 29.4% of the Sinhala Community believe it will have a negative impact 29.8% are undecided. (Ref. Page 51 and Page 52)

♦ An overwhelming majority (81.1%) is not aware that Japan’s special envoy to Sri Lanka, Mr. Yasushi Akashi participated in the 6th round of peace talks held in Hakone, Japan. Of those aware of his participation, 58.1% believe that it will have a positive impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 53 and Page 54)

♦ A majority (77.4%) is aware of the recent incidents at sea between the Government and the LTTE. Of those aware of these incidents, 69.5% are of the opinion that they would have a negative impact on the peace process. This is a view held largely by the Sinhala (73.3%), Up-country Tamil (66%) and Muslim (50.5%) communities. (Ref. Page 58 and Page 59)

Peace Confidence Index Page 10 Top-Line Results

♦ 79.2% of the people feel that Ceasefire Agreement needs to be strengthened and expanded. (Ref. Page 60)

♦ 96.5% of Sri Lankans say they are aware of the war against Iraq by the US and British forces and an overwhelming 82% say they disapprove of it. This disapproval is almost equally high amongst the Sinhala (80.3%) and Tamil (83.7%) communities, with 98.7% of the Muslim and 92.4% of the Up-country Tamil community disapproving of the war on Iraq. (Ref. Page 55 and Page 56)

♦ Of those who are aware of the war against Iraq, a majority (46.2%) says that it will have a negative impact on the Sri Lankan peace process. (Ref. Page 57)

For further information please contact:

Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: 370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 11 Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI)

MAY 2001 – MARCH 2003

THE PERCEPTION OF WAR AND PEACE

What does ‘peace’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

63 60 54 52.7 54.5 53.9 50.6 50.5 49.2 50 46.1 End of war 47.2 44.9 47.8 41.4 40 37.5 36.4 42.7 Ethnic Harmony 36.7 35.9 34.7 35.8 39 % 34.7 35 35.7 35 30 34.7 34.1 31 24.7 32 31.2 Feeling Safe 29.3 29 25.9 25.4 21.6 20 Freedom 16.7 17.7 18.3 16.2 15.3 14.9 15.5 14.9 10 10.4 11.2 12.6 9.8 0 May '01 September January '02 May '02 September January '03 '01 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

17 14.8 Up-country Tamil 70.5 15.7

15.7 Freedom 53.8 Muslim 82.1 Feeling safe 16.9 Ethnic Harmony 23.7 End of war 39.6 Tamil 45.5 26.5 43 14 Sinhala 44.4 33.2

0 20406080100 %

What does ‘war’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

70 60.2 58.9 57.8 Means to achieving peace 60 54.4 55.9 56.2 51.3 50.8 50 Fighting for rights 43.1 42.8 39.6 40 Disharmony amongst % 30.3 races 27.4 30 27.1 26.4 27.7 30.1 24.5 23.9 25.2 26.2 26 22.9 22.9 25.7 23.6 Hindrance to economic 20.321.5 18.2 21.2 growth/ Rise in cost of 20 17.1 16.2 16.2 22.3 21.5 15 16.7 living 12.3 16.4 16.6 15.8 15.6 16.8 9.8 9.4 11.1 Death / Destruction 10 12.4 10.9 12.9 13.2 8.7 11.4 9.9 8.7 10.1 0.3 7.8 8.6 2.7 3.5 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.5 4.6 2.2 0 Terrorism June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

8.6 57 19.3 Up-country Tamil 20.5 6.9 Terrorism 0.9 18.4 41.8 Death / Destruction 33 Muslim 51.4 7.1 Hindrance to economic growth/ 6.6 Rise in cost of living 8.7 72.8 Disharmony amongst races 27.6 Tamil 24.7 22 Fighting for rights 0.9 9.8 55.8 23 Means to achieving peace Sinhala 29.8 10.8 2.1

0 1020304050607080 %

When will there be peace in Sri Lanka?

National Trend

80 71.3 70 63.8 60 60.1 57.9 58.4 58.6 61.9 60 53.9 54.5 57.2 57.6

50 Soon % 40 Never

Don't 30 24.8 24.8 22.1 21.1 know 18.9 21 20 13.4 17.7 11 17.3 10.2 9.9 9 7.6 10 6.7 4.9 6.8 10 10.6 10.4 7.5 7.2 8.2 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

29 1.6 3.7 Up-country Tamil 1.7 13.3 49.8 54.4 5.2 3.1 Don't know Muslim 7.8 Never 4.1 25.3 Not in my life time 31 Within the next ten years 5.7 Within the next five years 5.3 Tamil0 Soon 1.5 56.5

66.8 11.2 1.3 Sinhala 2.5 5.9 11.8 0 1020304050607080 %

In your opinion what was the origin/cause(s) of the war in Sri Lanka? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

45 41.6 41.5 40.3 39.3 40 37.8 Communal politics 34.5 35.1 33.8 33.4 36.3 35 36.2 Discrimination against 29.2 33.1 29.2 30 28 Tamils 26 25.6 24.7 24.4 Discrimination against % 25 22.5 Sinhalese 24.3 20 20.4 Sinhala chauvinism 17.9 14.8 14.2 15.2 15 13.2 12.4 11.7 11.7 11 Tamil chauvinism 14.3 12.3 9.2 9.9 9 8.7 10 8.2 10.4 7.8 8.7 8.3 9 9.1 4.9 9.8 Terrorism 8.4 6.6 8.16.9 8 5 7.1 6.8 7 2 1.4 3.6 4 4.2 4 3.9 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.6 3.3 0 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

6 11.5 30.9 Up-country Tamil 1.2 25.2 28.7 13.3 6.1 Terrorism 33.4 Muslim 4.9 51.8 Tamil chauvinism 32.8

0 Sinhala chauvinism 0 Tamil 10.1 0.4 Discrimination against 60.4 Sinhalese 28.9 Discrimination against Tamils 13.5 11.4 7 Communal politics Sinhala 3 15.2 37.5 0 10203040506070 %

SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT

How do you think we can end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka? [Multiple Answers]

National Breakdown

100 87.2 86 90 85 84.4 83.7 80.7 83.7 86.7 80 71.3 71.9 68.6 70 Government 59.1 defeating the 60 LTTE % 50 LTTE defeating 40 the Government

30 24.4 18 20 19.9 Peace talks 20 9.9 10.1 7.6 7 7.2 10.4 10 6.5 1.3 0.8 1 5.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1 1.1 0.3 0.6 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

98 Up-country Tamil 1 1.6 98.5 Muslim0 Peace talks 2.1 LTTE defeating the 97.4 Government Tamil 1.2 Government defeating the 1.2 LTTE 84.4 Sinhala 0.5 12.1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 %

Why do you think there hasn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15 odd years? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 46.2 44.2 44 44.2 45 Corrupt military 39.1 39.4 40.5 41.8 and political 40 37.3 36.7 37.1 41.4 leaders 34.1 38.5 35 33.4 34.8 35 33.1 32.7 No political will 30 30.9 31.8 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.2 % 25 25.8 24.5 19.5 LTTE does not 20 22.2 21.2 20.7 19.1 want peace 18.5 18.6 15 18.2 13.1 11.3 War is necessary 10 for people in 10.5 7.5 9.3 10.6 power 5 8.6 7.3 6.5 7 0 4.8 6.5 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

25.1 12 1.1 Up-country Tamil 0.6 30.3 37.4 Don't know 38.9 War is necessary for people in power 22.7 10.1 LTTE does not want peace Muslim 3.7 The strength of the LTTE 26.3 12.7 No political will 18.3 Corrupt military and political leaders 19.6 0 Tamil 2.1 45 25.1 17 19.3 15 Sinhala 5 43.3 34.2

0 1020304050 %

CONFIDENCE

I think the Government is committed to find peace through talks.

National Trend

80 69.8 70.2 70 63.7 61.8 58 59.4 56.7 60 53 50.2 50 43.8 44 50.1

Agree % 40 31.4 Disagree

30 23.8 22.5 24.5

20 15.1 19.1 12 20.9 11.9 18.6 9.8 9.1 10

0 May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

7.6 Up-country Tamil 9.6 69.9 8.5 Disagree Muslim 2.1 68.4 Neither agree nor disagree 10.2 Tamil 10.4 Agree 66.6

21.2 Sinhala 20.5 46.5

0 1020304050607080 %

I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.

National Trend

80 68.5 70 63.5

60 53.2 50.6 50 45.7 42.7 45.7 39.5 39.8 Agree 38.2 38.9 % 40 32.9 Disagree 30 22.2 28.3 29.3 29 17.3 27.3 27.5 20 15.8 25.7 12.9 19.7 9.8 10

0 May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

8.2 Up-country Tamil 8.1 69.2 10.8 Muslim 8.3 Disagree 40.2

Neither agree nor 3.5 disagree Tamil 9.2 73.1 Agree

53.3 Sinhala 19.3 11.3

0 1020304050607080 %

Why do you think that the Government goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 48.8 44.6 45.3 42.1 41.7 Commitment to peace 39 39.5 38.3 38.3 40 35.8 35.5 38 33.2 32.4 32.5 % 37.5 Economic hardship 28.9 29.9 28.6 30 33.4 27 24.1 29.6 24.1 27.2 International pressure 24.5 28.9 24.6 19.9 19.8 24.1 18.6 20 18 17.2 Realisation that this war 19.7 17.6 20.1 12.4 14.1 cannot be won 16.2 12.2 10 12.9 15.5 10.3 14.5 9.7 10.9 10 11.9 8 10.3 To fool the people 10.6 9.5 8.4 8.8 7.1 7.1 7.4 6.6 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.5 4.3 3.2 3.9 0 Lack of manpower June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

4.6 6 Up-country 20.6 Tamil 9.8 23.3 52.1 Lack of manpower 28.2 4.3 19 To fool the people Muslim 43.9 27.1 32.1 Realisation that this war cannot be won 1.6 International pressure 0 16.9 Tamil 15.9 Economic hardship 42.6 40.3 Commitment to peace 4.2 14.8 28.9 Sinhala 8.6 23.2 37.4

0 102030405060 %

Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 44.9 45

40 Commitment to peace 34.6 35 31.3 31.5 30.8 Economic hardship 30.8 28.7 30 27.7 27.9 28.5 29.1 27.3 25.1 International pressure 24.7 27.4 25.6 % 25 25 22.4 24.5 23.9 23.4 22.5 18.7 20.4 20.5 18.3 19.1 19 Realisation that this war 20 18.2 20 15.4 16.9 18.5 cannot be won 16.7 18.6 14.6 16.7 15.2 14.9 15.9 13.9 18.1 16.1 15.7 15 13.9 16.5 14.6 14.9 15.5 To fool the people 12.3 14.6 13.2 14.5 12.6 13.8 12.8 14.4 13.1 12.8 10 8.9 12.5 12.4 10.3 Lack of manpower 8.5 5 6.6 0 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

6.5 3.7 11.1 Up-country Tamil 13.7 21.2 55.2 Lack of manpower 45.7 3 To fool the people 33.8 Muslim 45 20.4 Realisation that this war cannot be 19.5 won 2.8 International pressure 0 9 Tamil 15.6 Economic hardship 21.1 43.6 Commitment to peace 14.1 33.8 26.6 Sinhala 17.5 14.7 7.2 0 102030405060 % THE PEACE PROCESS

Who should be involved in negotiations?

National Trend

40 36.7 35 32.1 33.9 Govt. and LTTE only 30 31.3 27 25.1 25.8 25 21.9 23 21.6 21.7 19.9 20.3 Govt.,LTTE and % 20 19 18.3 International third party 16.2 15.9 16.4 19.1 18.6 only 15.1 14.2 17.2 15 12.4 16.6 16.4 15.5 15.5 12.1 Govt., Opposition, 13.5 11 14 12.9 LTTE,Tamil, Muslim 10 9.8 6.6 9.5 parties and a third party 4.3 4 4.8 5 No peace talks 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.4 1 1.5 0 May '01 September January '02 May '02 September January '03 '01 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

6.9 0 20.2 13.5 Don't know Up-country Tamil 22 9.5 4.2 9.3 No peace talks 11.2 0.6 40.4 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, 29.3 Muslim 2.4 Muslim parties and a third party 0 1.1 13.1 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only 5.4 0 12.2 Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil 2.4 parties and a third party Tamil 28.9 0.3 32.6 Govt., Opposition, LTTE and 11.6 other Tamil parties only 9.6 1.8 Govt.,LTTE and International third 17.6 9 party only Sinhala 6.6 3.3 8.9 Govt. and LTTE only 22

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION%

What is your opinion of the need for an international third party’s involvement to solve the North East war in Sri Lanka?

National Trend

40 38 35.8 35 32.6 32.5 32.5 30.9 31.9 30.2 30.6 29.8 Is essential 30 28.9 29 29 29.3 Will add a positive 24.2 28.8 29 25 impact 21.8 20.9 26.1 Will have no impact % 20 16.7 17.9 16.8 16.5 14.2 Will add a negative 16 13.2 16.2 15 14.2 13.1 impact 11.3 10.5 10 9.6 10.3 9.6 9.5 Is not essential 10 11.3 11.6 10.2 9.9 10.2 9.2 5.7 5.4 Don't know/Not sure 5 3.2 2.1 5.4 4.6 4.3 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.9 1.6 0 1.4 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

20.3 10.3 Up-country Tamil 0 3 4.1 56.1 19.9 Don't know/Not sure 7.6 3.2 Is not essential Muslim 2.7 4.5 Will add a negative impact 59.7 Will have no impact 1.9 Will add a positive impact 2.7 0.3 Is essential Tamil 3.7 3.9 87.4

9.6 18.1 4.9 Sinhala 1.3 34.3 22 0 20406080100 NORWEGIAN FACILITATION %

Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process

National Trend

60 53.8 50.7 50 46.3 42.4 42.7 42.3 40 37 Approve 38 Neither approve % 30 28.2 29.8 24.5 nor disapprove 22.4 23 23.1 20.5 Disapprove 19.4 21 20 21.8 18 22.8 22.1 18 18.7 15.5 17.9 Don't know/Not 11.1 sure 10 13.6 12.8 10.2 9.1 7.8 8.8

0 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

26.8 5.8 Up-country Tamil 3.1 64.3 43.4 Don't know/Not sure 9.2 Muslim 1.8 Disapprove 45.6 2.4 Neither approve nor 0.8 Tamil disapprove 1.8 94.9 Approve 20.7 34.8 Sinhala 12.8 31.6 0 20 40% 60 80 100

Norway continuing to facilitate talks.

National Trend

50 44.1 45

40 38.2 41.3 38.7 35 Approve 29.4 30 % Neither approve nor 26.9 disapprove 25 22.6 23.3 19.7 Disapprove 20 20.9 21.8 21.8 Don't know/Not sure 15 11.9 13.2 13.6 10 10.7 5

0 September '02 November '02 January '03 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

24.4 4.1 Up-country Tamil 5.5 66

41.8 Don't know/Not sure 8.4 Muslim 2.9 46.9 Disapprove 2.4 1.2 Tamil Neither approve nor 1.5 disapprove 94.9 Approve 20.8 31.5 Sinhala 15.2 32.2 0 20 40 60 80 100 %

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT

What is your opinion of the need for India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process?

National Trend

40 35.5 33.8 35.9 35 31.7

32.7 Is essential 30 27 Will add a positive 25 26.1 26.6 impact 20.8 % 19.2 20 Will have no impact 16.2 16.4 17.4 18.6 15.6 14.9 16.8 15 15.8 Will add a negative 14.3 16.2 13.1 13 impact 13.5 10 12.5 Is not essential 5.9 9.2 8.4 7.1 5 3.5 5.6 2.7 Don't know/Not sure 1.9 1.3 3 1.2 1.7 0 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

11.1 14.5 0 Up-country Tamil 1.8 4.9 65.5 Don't know/Not sure 25.3 9.2 1.1 Is not essential Muslim 1.7 9.5 50.7 Will add a negative 19.4 impact 10.5 5.7 Will have no impact Tamil 10.1 6.8 47.5 Will add a positive 11.9 impact 16.7 6.3 Is essential Sinhala 2.6 41.6 11.5 0 10203040506070 %

RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION

If you are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the ceasefire, what is your opinion of the need for such a monitoring mission for the ceasefire agreement to succeed?

National Trend

50 Is essential 45 41.5 39.4 39.3 40.5 43 40 37.9 37.5 Will have a positive 33.6 35 impact 31.2 29.7 30 26.7 26.3 Will have no impact 25.3 26.7 % 25 20 Will have a negative impact 15 10.3 Is not essential 9.6 10 8.4 7.3 5.6 6.7 5.6 4.6 5.8 6.9 5 5.2 4.5 7.5 5.2 4.2 Will be a threat to the 4.2 1.9 4.1 3.8 4.1 3.7 1.9 0.6 0 1.4 1.7 1.7 0.4 sovereignty of Sri Lanka March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

0 2.9 0.5 Up-country Tamil 2.8 7.1 Will be a threat to the sovereignty 67.1 of Sri Lanka 3.1 0 3 Is not essential Muslim 15.8 8.5 56.7 Will have a negative impact 0 2.8 0.4 Tamil 3.2 Will have no impact 1.9 90.2 0.4 Will have a positive impact 5.7 4.2 Sinhala 7 49.4 Is essential 18.5

0 20406080100 %

I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Trend

40 35.5 35 33.2 31.7 32.8 29 30.3 33.1 30 27.4 26.8 27 Agree 28.9 27.6 25 22.5 23.6 21.4 Neither agree 22.8 21.3 % nor disagree 20 15.7 19.2 Disagree 18 18.9 15 18 17.8 14.6 Don't know/Not 10 sure

5 0 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

38.9 2 Up-country Tamil 6.7 51.3

34.8 23.4 Muslim Don't know/Not sure 8.6 33.2 Disagree 19.3 Neither agree nor disagree 3.5 Tamil 7 Agree 69 20.1 36.9 Sinhala 20.8 22.2 0 1020304050607080 %

I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Trend

35 31.4 30.5 30.6 28.7 30 28 26.1 26 26.6 24 25 24.3 Agree 25.7 21.3 24.8 23.8 22.8 20 22.4 Neither agree % 21.4 20.3 19.7 nor disagree 19.3 15 Disagree

10 Don't know/Not sure 5

0 July '02 September '02 November '02 January '03 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

38.9 4.7 Up-country Tamil 10.5 44.8 38.7 18.9 Muslim Don't know/Not sure 7.2 35.2 Disagree Neither agree nor disagree 23.7 4 Agree Tamil 9 62.2

21 34.4 Sinhala 25.2 19.5

0 10203040506070 %

LTTE

I think the LTTE is the sole representative of the Tamil community.

National Trend

56.8 58.9 60 54.8 54.5 55 54.4 50 Agree

40 % Neither agree nor disagree 30 22.4 Disagree 17.5 18.7 20 18 16.8 18.4 11.6 10.4 9.3 12.9 11 12.5 10 Don't know 11.9 9.4 8.1 10.5 10 9 0 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

17.8 23.5 Up-country Tamil 11 43.4

46.8 22.4 Don't know Muslim 9.4 Disagree 19.2 9.2 Neither agree nor 5.5 disagree Tamil 4.9 Agree 79.3 10.3 62 Sinhala 12.6 12.2

0 20406080100

FEDERAL SOLUTION

Are you aware that the Government and the LTTE have announced that they are committed to finding a solution based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka?

National Breakdown

37.6

Yes No 62.4

Ethnic Breakdown

62.4 National 37.6

83.1 Up-country Tamil 16.9

84 No Muslim Yes 16

67.1 Tamil 32.9

59.4 Sinhala 40.6

0 102030405060708090

If you are aware that the Government and the LTTE have announced that they are committed to finding a solution based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of this agreement?

National Breakdown

30.6 33.3 Approve Disapprove Don’t know/Not sure 36.1

Ethnic Breakdown

30.6 National 36.1 33.3

24.3 Up-country Tamil 7.6 68.1

20.7 Muslim 20.9 Don’t know/Not 58.2 sure Disapprove 1 Tamil 1.9 Approve 97

32.7 Sinhala 39.4 27.9

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Peace Confidence Index Page 32 Top-Line Results

If you have heard of federalism, through which medium did you hear about this? [Multiple Answers]

National Breakdown

70 67.1

60 48.9 50

% 40 30 21.4 20 12.9 14.6

10 3.4

0 Newspaper Television Political College/ Word of Radio meeting University mouth

Ethnic Breakdown

21.4 14.6 National 12.9 3.4 67.1 48.9 58.1 27.2 4.7 Up-country Tamil 2.5 43.1 56.6 Radio 30.8 Word of mouth 11.1 College/ University Muslim 24.2 13.5 Political meeting 22 58.9 Television Newspaper 10.8 12.7 40.1 Tamil0 47.9 52.4 20.5 14.4 11.3 Sinhala 3.3 70.2 48.2 0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 33 Top-Line Results

I believe a federal system is the best way of governing this country.

National Breakdown

19.4 28.3 Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree 18.8 Don't know/ Not sure

33.5

Ethnic Breakdown

28.3 33.5 National 18.8 19.4 8.6 8.2 Up-country Tamil 6.9 74 Don't know/ Not sure 25 10.1 Disagree Muslim 6.7 53 Neither agree nor 3.5 disagree 11.5 Tamil 2.4 Agree 82.7 29.9 36.2 Sinhala 20.4 13.2

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 34 Top-Line Results

I think a federal state will lead to a secession.

National Breakdown

26.6 32.1 Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure

24.8 16.5

Ethnic Breakdown

26.6 24.8 National 16.5 32.1

39.4 31.4 Up-country Tamil 13.9 15.3 Don't know/ Not sure 41.7 32.4 Muslim 4.4 Disagree 16.3 Neither agree nor 11.1 disagree 68.4 Tamil 3.4 Agree 13.6

26 22 Sinhala 17.6 34.1 0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 35 Top-Line Results

Within a federal structure Tamils will have more benefits.

National Breakdown

32 35.9 Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure

18.5 13.6

Ethnic Breakdown

32 18.5 National 13.6 35.9 35.9 10.3 Up-country Tamil 22.9 26.8 Don't know/ Not sure 37.1 10.8 Muslim Disagree 4.9 42 Neither agree nor 7.1 disagree 27.5 Tamil 15.8 Agree 49.6

32.5 18.4 Sinhala 13.4 35.2

0 102030405060

Peace Confidence Index Page 36 Top-Line Results

Within a federal structure Sinhalese will have more benefits.

National Breakdown

7.1 13 35.4 Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure 44.5

Ethnic Breakdown

35.4 44.5 National 13 7.1

41.1 21.7 Up-country Tamil 15.7 Don't know/ Not sure 21.6

41 Disagree 20.2 Muslim 11.6 Neither agree nor 22 disagree Agree 11.5 28.4 Tamil 22.4 37.7

35.6 46.8 Sinhala 12.4 4.5

0 1020304050 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 37 Top-Line Results

Within a federal structure Muslims will have more benefits.

National Breakdown

11.9

37 16.7 Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure 34.4

Ethnic Breakdown

37 34.4 National 16.7 11.9 42.4 19.8 Up-country Tamil 22.9 14.8 Don't know/ Not sure 44.8 28.4 Muslim Disagree 9.7 11.8 Neither agree nor 16.8 disagree 28.4 Tamil Agree 18 36.8

36.4 35.4 Sinhala 16.6 10.4

0 1020304050 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 38 Top-Line Results

Within a federal structure everyone will equally benefit.

National Breakdown

24.7 30.4 Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree 15.8 Don't know/ Not sure 29.1

Ethnic Breakdown

30.4 29.1 National 15.8 24.7

11.2 4.8 Up-country Tamil 9.6 69.5 Don't know/ Not sure 23.2 22.9 Disagree Muslim 7.1 41.7 Neither agree nor disagree 7.8 Agree 4 Tamil 2 82.6

30.3 31.4 Sinhala 17 19.6

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 39 Top-Line Results

I do not agree with any form of federal concept for Sri Lanka.

National Breakdown

19.5 35.8

Agree Neither agree nor disagree 14.9 Disagree Don't know/ Not sure 29.8

Ethnic Breakdown

35.8 29.8 National 14.9 19.5 37.6 37.7 Up-country Tamil 5 10.9 Don't know/ Not sure 33.5 Disagree 38.6 Muslim 4.2 16.5 Neither agree nor disagree 11 Agree 66.5 Tamil 9.1 12.5

34.3 27.8 Sinhala 15.8 20.2 0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 40 Top-Line Results

I will agree with a federal solution if it is approved by a majority of Sri Lankans.

National Breakdown

27.1 31.4

Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure

27.5 14

Ethnic Breakdown

27.1 27.5 National 14 31.4

16.4 3.5 Up-country Tamil 14.2 56.9 Don't know/ Not sure 28.1 17.5 Muslim Disagree 10.5 33.6 Neither agree nor disagree 9.6 Agree 32.4 Tamil 4.6 49.6

24.1 28.3 Sinhala 14.6 29.5

0 102030405060

Peace Confidence Index Page 41 Top-Line Results

I think people are being adequately informed about federalism.

National Breakdown

8 20.9 5.3

Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure 65.8

Ethnic Breakdown

20.9 65.8 National 5.3 8 3 69.6 Up-country Tamil 12.4 10.2 Don't know/ Not sure 25.6 Disagree 53.4 Muslim 2.4 3 Neither agree nor disagree 16.7 Agree 12.3 Tamil 41.5 25.7

20.5 68.9 Sinhala 3.2 7

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 42 Top-Line Results

PEACE TALKS

If you are aware of the 6th round of peace talks, are you aware of the Government’s proposal to hold local government elections in the North and East and the LTTE’s announcement that it will favourably consider supporting the holding of these elections?

National Breakdown

12.3

44.8 Yes No Don't know/ Not sure 42.9

Ethnic Breakdown

12.3 National 42.9 44.8

25.3 Up-country Tamil 27.1 47.6 4.8 Muslim 34.2 Don't know/ Not sure 61 No 8.4 Tamil 50.6 41 Yes 12.3 Sinhala 43.2 44.3

0 10203040506070

Peace Confidence Index Page 43 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the Government’s proposal to hold local government elections in the North and East and the LTTE’s announcement that it will favourably consider supporting it, what in your opinion will be the impact of the Government’s proposal to hold local government elections in the North and East, on the peace process?

National Breakdown

15.9 Will have a positive impact Will have no impact 11.9 Will have a negative impact Don't know/ Not sure

56.1 16.1

Ethnic Breakdown

15.9 11.9 National 16.1 56.1

19.9 5.6 Up-country Tamil 15.3 59.2 27.5 13.3 Muslim Don't know/ Not sure 19.4 39.8 Will have a negative 7.9 impact 8 Tamil 23.3 Will have no impact 60.9

14.5 Will have a positive 12.4 impact Sinhala 15.3 56.7

0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 44 Top-Line Results

Are you aware that the Government and the LTTE have asked their international human rights adviser, Mr. Ian Martin, to submit a proposal integrating human rights into the peace process, at the 7th Session of the peace talks?

National Breakdown

13.3

Yes No

86.7

Ethnic Breakdown

86.7 National 13.3

70 Up-country Tamil 30

67.8 Muslim No 32.2 Yes

84.6 Tamil 15.4

87.8 Sinhala 11.7

0 20406080100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 45 Top-Line Results

If you are aware that the Government and the LTTE have asked Mr. Ian Martin, to submit a proposal integrating human rights into the peace process, at the 7th Session of the peace talks, what in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Breakdown

Will have a positive impact Will have no impact 23.5 Will have a negative impact Don't know/ Not sure

5.2 7.8 63.5

Ethnic Breakdown

23.5 5.2 National 7.8 63.5 16.2 0 Up-country Tamil 17.9 66 Don't know/ Not sure 25.6 Will have a negative 4.8 Muslim 17.8 impact 45.4 Will have no impact 5.8 0 Will have a positive Tamil 18.3 impact 75.8 25 6.3 Sinhala 4.5 64.1

0 1020304050607080

Peace Confidence Index Page 46 Top-Line Results

Please state your level of satisfaction over the progress of the peace talks.

National Trend

50 46.3 43.3 45 40 35 30 % 25 January '03 18.7 18.9 20 March '03 15 10.8 10.7 9 9.5 8 7.6 7.9 10 6.6 5 0 Highly satisfied Somewhat Neither Somewhat Highly Don't know/ satisfied satisfied nor dissatisfied dissatisfied Not sure dissatisfied

Ethnic Breakdown

6.8 0 4.4 Up-country Tamil 5.2 49.6 31.7 11.4 4.7 2.9 Don't know/ Not sure Muslim 10.3 49.4 Highly dissatisfied 20.9 Somewhat dissatisfied 1.2 0 0.8 Neither satisfied nor Tamil 9.2 dissatisfied 65.8 Somewhat satisfied 22.6 Highly satisfied 8.3 8.8 10.9 Sinhala 21 40.8 8

0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 47 Top-Line Results

THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY

Do you think that the interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being adequately represented in the peace talks?

National Trend

40 36.5 35.6 35 34.1 30 29.6 29.4 28.5 26.2 25 Yes % 22.9 20 No 18.9 Don't know/Not sure 15

5 0 November '02 January '03 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

23.7 Up-country Tamil 17.2 48.9

20.7 Muslim 54.9 18.3 Don't know/Not sure

45.5 No Tamil 15.2 33.7 Yes

34.7 Sinhala 25.8 27.5

0 102030405060 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 48 Top-Line Results

Do you think there should be a separate Muslim delegation in the peace talks?

National Breakdown

40 35 31.5 29.5 30 28.7

25 % 20 15 10

0 Yes No Don't know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

28.7 National 31.5 29.5

20.9 Up-country Tamil 24.9 44.1 Don't know/Not sure 7.3 Muslim 0.8 No 89.3 Yes

15.2 Tamil 31.6 49

31.5 Sinhala 33.8 23.4

0 20406080100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 49 Top-Line Results

LIVING CONDITIONS

Please rank the following issues according to your order of importance

National Trend

49.3 50 48.2

40 January '03 % 30 March '03

18.9 20 18.8 16.5 15.6

10 6.1 3.5 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.4 1.3 0.40.5 0.4 1.2 1 0.3 1.7 0

Security

conflict Terrorism Education Corruption The ethnic pollution Democracy Cost of living

Human rights Environmental Law and order Unemployment

Ethnic Breakdown

2.1 0 0.7 3.5 0 Up-country Tamil 11.3 0.3 2.2 41.9 27.2 5.8 2.1 Human rights 0.8 0 Democracy 0 1.6 Law and order Muslim 1.7 4 3.1 Environmental pollution 28.9 40.3 Corruption 15.3 Security 6.4 0 1.1 Terrorism 1.2 0 Education Tamil 5.2 2.1 2.7 Cost of living 37.4 30.8 Unemployment 13 The ethnic conflict 1.7 0.3 1.4 0.2 0.4 Sinhala 0.4 2.8 6.7 51.9 12.2 20.4

0 102030405060 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 50 Top-Line Results

In your opinion what kind of impact has the peace process had on your living conditions?

National Trend

33.9 34.7 35 29 30 28.7 26.3 24.1 25 % January '03 20 March '03 15 8.9 9.6 10

5 0 Has had a positive Has had no impact Has had a negative Don't know/Not sure impact impact

Ethnic Breakdown

7.3 3.5 Up-country Tamil 45.7 42.3

17.4 8.9 Muslim Don't know/Not sure 39.1 33.3 Has had a negative 0.3 impact 3.2 Tamil Has had no impact 15.4 81.1 Has had a positive impact 10 33.4 Sinhala 35.2 20.7

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 51 Top-Line Results

OPPOSITION’S ROLE

Are you aware of talks between the SLFP and the JVP about an alliance between their two parties?

National Trend

80 71.3 70 62.3 60 50 January '03 % 37.7 40 March '03 28.5 30

20 10 0 Yes No

Ethnic Breakdown

57.4 Up-country Tamil 41.6

59.7 Muslim 40.3 No Yes 59 Tamil 41

22.5 Sinhala 77.4

0 20406080100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 52 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of talks between the SLFP and the JVP about an alliance between their two parties, what in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Trend

40 36.2 35 31.1 29 30 24.1 25 21.1 19.8 January '03 % 20 17.5 March '03 15.4 15

0 Will have a positive Will have no impact Will have a negative Don’t know/Not sure impact impact

Ethnic Breakdown

31.6 53.1 Up-country Tamil 10.2 2.8

18 44 Muslim 29.5 Don’t know/Not sure 8.4 Will have a negative impact 15.3 Will have no impact 45.7 Tamil Will have a positive impact 36.7 2.3 29.8 29.4 Sinhala 20.6 18.9 0 102030405060 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 53 Top-Line Results

JAPAN’S ROLE

Are you aware that Japan’s special peace envoy to Sri Lanka, Mr. Yasushi Akashi, participated in the 6th round of peace talks held in Hakone, Japan?

National Breakdown

18.9

Yes No

81.1

Ethnic Breakdown

81.1 National 18.9

64.7 Up-country Tamil 33.7

69.3 Muslim No 30.7 Yes

72 Tamil 28

83 Sinhala 16.6

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 54 Top-Line Results

If you aware that Japan’s special peace envoy to Sri Lanka, Mr. Yasushi Akashi, participated in the 6th round of peace talks held in Hakone, Japan, what in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Breakdown

26.9 Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact 1.9 58.1 Don't know/Not sure 13.1

Ethnic Breakdown

26.9 1.9 National 13.1 58.1 20.5 0.4 Up-country Tamil 9.4 69.7

29.3 2.7 Don't know/Not sure Muslim 30.9 33.5 Will have a negative impact

9.8 Will have no impact 0 Tamil 23.6 Will have a positive impact 66.6 29.3 2.2 Sinhala 10.1 58.3

0 1020304050607080 % RAQ I

Peace Confidence Index Page 55 Top-Line Results

Are you aware of the war against Iraq by the US and British forces?

National Breakdown

3.5

Yes No

96.5

Ethnic Breakdown

3.5 National 96.5

13.6 Up-country Tamil 86.4

2.2 Muslim No 97.8 Yes

2.3 Tamil 97.7

3 Sinhala 96.9

0 20406080100120 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 56 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the war against Iraq, do you approve or disapprove of the action taken by USA and Britain?

National Breakdown

6.8 11.2 Approve Disapprove Don’t know/ Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

11.2 National 82 6.8

2.9 Up-country Tamil 92.4 4.1

1.3 Don’t know/ Not sure Muslim 98.7 0 Disapprove Approve 11.2 Tamil 83.7 4.8

12.2 Sinhala 80.3 7.5

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 57 Top-Line Results

What in your opinion will be the impact of this on the Sri Lankan peace process?

National Breakdown

3.3 26.3 24.2 Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure

46.2

Ethnic Breakdown

26.3 46.2 National 24.2 3.3 11.4 61.8 Up-country Tamil 23.5 0.2

27.8 Don't know/Not sure 68.1 Muslim 4 Will have a negative impact 0.1 Will have no impact 22.9 Will have a positive impact 37.7 Tamil 36.8 2.5 26.7 44.6 Sinhala 24.5 3.8 0 1020304050607080 % RECENT INCIDENTS

Peace Confidence Index Page 58 Top-Line Results

Are you aware of the recent incidents at sea between the Government and the LTTE?

National Breakdown

22.6

Yes No

77.4

Ethnic Breakdown

22.6 National 77.4

52.9 Up-country Tamil 46.7

50.8 Muslim 49.2 No Yes

5.2 Tamil 94.8

19.5 Sinhala 79.8

0 102030405060708090100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 59 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the recent incidents at sea between the Government and the LTTE, what in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Breakdown

14.7 1.7 14.1

Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure

69.5

Ethnic Breakdown

14.7 69.5 National 14.1 1.7

10.5 66 Up-country Tamil 19.5 2.5 Don't know/Not sure 27.7 50.5 Will have a negative impact Muslim 19.3 Will have no impact 2.5 Will have a positive impact 21.9 37.8 Tamil 40 0.3 13.2 73.3 Sinhala 11.4 1.8

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 60 Top-Line Results

Do you feel that the Ceasefire Agreement needs to be strengthened and expanded?

National Breakdown

5.7 15.1 Yes No No response

79.2

Ethnic Breakdown

5.7 National 15.1 79.2 4 Up-country Tamil 11.3 84.7

0 Muslim 26.9 No response 73.1 No Yes 2.1 Tamil 4.6 93.3

6.2 Sinhala 15.8 78 0 102030405060708090100 %

District sample (weighted) distribution in March 2003

DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 186 Gampaha 160 Kalutara 80 Kandy 92 Matale 31 Nuwara Eliya 46 Galle 71 Hambantota 36 Matara 54 Anuradhapura 52 Polonnaruwa 25 Kurunegala 104 Puttlam 48 Badulla 50 Monaragala 25 Ratnapura 72 Kegalle 58 Amparai 39 Batticaloa 35 Trincomalee 28 Vavuniya 11 NATIONAL 1302

Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in March 2003

ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1085 Tamil 82 Muslim 67 Up-country Tamil 68 NATIONAL 1302

ii Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

Sampling Methodology

Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is essential that the study be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.

The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in this model.

The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions. However, some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.

A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.

To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure the random selection of households.

In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KRISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI sample.

The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the same level of precision.

Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social research organisation, which conducts polls on socio-economic and political issues. Operating under the Board of Directors of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in September 1999, and filled a longstanding vacuum for a permanent, professional and independent polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political issues. Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a means by which the silent majority of the public can express their opinions on issues affecting them. Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social issues, thereby providing a means through which public opinion can influence the public policy debate.

Published by: Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: 370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org