CHENG LI Labour Surplus Economy Under Transitions: a Case Study Of
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CHENG LI Labour surplus economy under transitions: a case study of chinese rural labour mobility Transições na economia de mão de obra excedente: um estudo de caso da mobilidade da mão de obra rural na China Campinas 2014 i iii iv v Acknowledgement This research has been a very enlightening and rewarding experience for me in an area that is of great personal interest. It would have been impossible without those who helped me throughout the study and they deserve a lot more than these few little humble words. First of all, I am deeply and wholeheartedly grateful to my supervisors, Professor Carlos Alonso Barbosa de Oliveira and Professor Jose Dari Krein, for their highly valued inputs, insightful contributions, as well as the constructive guidance to the finalization of the work. Without their continuous encouragement, and total belief in me, the study cannot beyond the current quality. Also I am thankful to their maximum levels of supports and help. It was my most honors to have them in my pursuit of the studies in Brazil! I am also thankful to Professor Anselmo Luis dos Santos for his presence in the qualification with his valuable suggestions, which provided me a profound perception on the research constructions. And a special thankfulness to Professor Fracalanza Paulo Sergio, for his generous gesture as devoting lots of his personal time on the discussion of the research, his knowledgeable guidance was a treasure contributing to my understandings of the relevant issues, without his humble suggestions, the model would not have been elaborated with details. Also I highly thank to Professor Carlos Salas Paez and Professor Bastiaan Philip Reydon, for their humble suggestions and guidance to my understandings on the model construction. In the meantime, without the fundamental knowledge of economics, this research could be hardly taken place. Therefore the thankfulness to also give to the professors who taught and helped me in UNICAMP, like Professor Eugenia Troncoso Leone, Professor Ana Rosa Ribeiro de Mendonca, Professor Paulo Eduardo de Andrade Baltar, Professor Magda Barros Biavaschi, Professor Kjeld Jakobsen, Professor Simone Silva de Deos, Professor Adriana Nunes Ferreira, Professor Maria Alice Pestana de Aguiar Remy, Professor Marcelo Manzano, Professor Alexandre Gori Maia, and etc. Furthermore, I would like also send my special thankfulness to the colleagues who are devoting and coordinating to facilitate my life, research, and studies in Brazil, like Jacqueline Aslan Souen, Hugo Dias, Helena Coloma, Guilherme Arce, Marcelo Loural, Rairis Martins, Pedro Antonio vii Biffi, and colleagues working in libraries like Alexandra Andrade, Bruna Prior Ferreira, Tabata Ponce, Clayton Moreira, and Lourdinha who are always accompanying me till the close of library almost every night; and to all my fellows from GLU batches, like Enung Yani Rukman, Andreas Ebisch, Boakai Dorley, Eddie Cottle, Charles Thompson Jr, Marcin Czhor, Mario Jacobs, Nicolò Giangrande, Muzaffer Ekin Şişli, Aleksander Amoh, Anna Lopez, Bilge Coban, Sophia Lowe, as well as the colleagues from FES and CUT, like Tina Hennecken, Sybille Richter, Mmargarete Teraguchi, Lucy Uemura, Waldeli Melleiro, Jean Tible, Gonzalo Berron, Ana Paula Melli, Clair Siobhan Ruppert, Leonardo Vieira and Jeanine Judite Will etc. The research will not be accomplished if I do not highlight and send my sincere thankfulness and gratefulness to my dear friends. Especially my friend Kartika Sardjana from Indonesia, and Bruno Silveira from Brazil, the whole process of the research had their presence and fully involvements. The final work is also deserved a great participation of their knowledge, experience, and the conversations. I also thank to my friend Ezgi Bagdadioglu and Ricardo Gaiotto who is always supporting and encouraging me, which gave me more strength to achieve the final goals. And it also cannot be forgotten to thank to my great roommates like, Vinicius Lima, Pedro Henrique, Fernando Henrique, Felipe Henrique Fonseca, Anthony Souza, and Marcio Sabino; as well as my great friends Gabriel Seda,Tales Henrique Simoes, Camila Marins, Charles Garcia Pessoa, Bruno Ferraz Basso, Carolina Menon, Gustavo Macedo, Santiago Ami Diaz Biglia, Leonel Yankelevich, Dalia Danithza Gallardo Ramirez, Gabriela Perez, Surley Andrea Herrera, Gilson Goncalves Dos Santos, Irene Nolasco, Leandro Cavalcanti Silva, Igor Figueiredo, Adauto Pereira, Hugo Abacher, Ricardo Lassato, Sayonara Soares, Talita Beneda, Jessica Santos, Thalita Cassettari, Larissa Tavares, Elizabeth Franco Takiy, Aparecido Alves, Daniel Guimaraes, Elyson Ferreira De Souza, Thiago Machado Dos Santos, Rodrigo Costa de Andrade, Eduardo Oliveira, Andre de Carvalho, Veri Diana, Lucas Perito, Adriano Joao da Silva, and so on. Last but not the least my parents, who have always been the backbone of my support. They have encouraged and motivated me at every step, during moments when I faltered and lost confidence to even take a step forward. I am indebted to each and every one of you and salute you for your trust and support in me. viii Resumo Três décadas de reforma econômica e abertura, a China tem vivido uma fase de desenvolvimento de transições econômicas de um sistema planejado para a de um mercado, juntamente com um padrão de desenvolvimento típico dualista. A mobilidade do trabalho de um controle restrito durante o período de pré-reforma à um afrouxamento gradual pós-reforma, juntamente com a melhoria de industrialização e expansão da urbanização, apresentou uma transferência de massa sem precedentes em termos de tempo, espaço, ocupação, indústria e escala. No entanto, a sustentabilidade de tal modelo de desenvolvimento do crescimento econômico altamente determinado pela escala da força de trabalho excedente rural restante. Com a fermentação persistente da generalizada falta de trabalho desde 2004, a diminuição gradual do dividendo demográfico atribuído principalmente à implementação da política de planejamento familiar desde 1980, bem como os atuais crescimentos contínuos dos custos de trabalho e a desaceleração do crescimento econômico, quanto tempo pode durar este modelo de desenvolvimento econômico baseado na transferência de força de trabalho, tornou-se um acalorado debate e agitação no campo acadêmico socio-econômico. Portanto, esta pesquisa adotou uma perspectiva de desenvolvimento econômico, através da análise profunda sobre as famosas teorias de transferência de trabalho rural excedente, estabelecendo o modelode força de trabalho tripartite como a principal contribuição teórica desta pesquisa, e combinado 35 anos de base de dados da China, fornecer uma situação real da transferência de força de trabalho rural excedente chinês. ix Abstract Three decades of the economic reform and opening up, China has experienced a development stage of economic transitions from a planned system to a market one, along with a typical dualistic developmental pattern. Labour mobility from a restrict control during the period of pre-reform to a gradual loosening after the reform, along with the improvement of industrialization and expansion of urbanization, presented an unprecedented mass transfer in terms of time, space, occupation, industry and scale. However, the sustainability of such development model of economic growth highly determined by the scale of the remaining rural surplus labour force. With the persistent fermentation of the wide-spread of labour shortage ever since 2004, the gradual diminishing of the demographic dividend mainly attributed to the implementation of the family planning policy since 1980s, as well as the current continuous growing labour costs and the slow down economic growth, how long can this economic development model based on the transfer of labour force last, became a heated debate and socio-economic hotspots in the academic field. Therefore, this research adopted a development economics perspective, through the profound analysis over the famous theories of rural surplus labour transfer, established a tripartite labour supply model, combined 35 years data base from China, provide an actual situation of Chinese rural surplus labour transfer. Key Words: Development Economics, Rural Surplus Labour Force, Labour Market, Labour Mobility, Dual Economy xi List Abbreviations CASS Chinese Academy of Social Sciences CPC Communist Party of China CPI Consumer Price Index CPPCC Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference GDP Gross Domestic Product GLU Global Labour University HCRS Household Contract Responsibility IMF International Monetary Fund MLSS Ministry of Labour and Social Security NBS National Bureau of Statistics PPP Purchasing Power Parity PRD Pearl River Delta SCDRC State Council's Development Research Centre SOEs State-owned Enterprises TVES Township and Village Enterprises UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNESCO United Nation's Education, Science and Culture Organization UPS Unified Purchases and Sales WB World Bank WTO World Trade Organization xiii List of Illustrations i. Tables: Table 1, The number of migrant workers in China 2008-2013 (Unit, million) Table 2, Top 10 jobs short of applicants in Guangdong province, Jul-Sep 2005 Table 3, Labour Market Segmentation Table 4, Labour Market Tripartite Segmentation in New Form Table 5, Migrant Workers Employment Composition by Sectors (%) Table 6, Components of Social Insurance and cost Table 7, the Social Insurance Participation Rate of Outgoing Migrant Workers, 2008-2013 Table 8, Migrant Workers Flow in Regional Mobility by Sending