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Mahindra & Mahindra Mahindra & Mahindra Set to race ahead post strong Q2 Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Automobiles Sharekhan code: M&M Result Update Update Stock 3R MATRIX + = - Summary Right Sector (RS) ü Mahindra and Mahindra’s (M&M) Q2FY2021 operating results were ahead of our as well as street expectations, driven by better-than-anticipated margins driven by cost control measures. Right Quality (RQ) ü Given strong farm sentiments, M&M has raised FY21 tractor industry guidance; automotive volumes to recover driven by new launches and inventory filling. Right Valuation (RV) ü Tighter capital allocation strategy with focus on 18% ROE to continue; M&M announces exit from loss making aircraft business in Australia (Gipps Aerospace); to improve international + Positive = Neutral - Negative subsidiary performance Stock is trading at attractive P/E of 11x core FY23 earnings. We retain Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 780. Reco/View Change Mahindra and Mahindra Limited’s (M&M) Q2FY2021 operating results were ahead of our Reco: Buy as well as street expectations, driven by better-than-anticipated margin. Operating profit margin (OPM) at 17.8% was the highest in a decade, driven by cost-control measures. The tractor segment’s EBIT margin was the highest ever, while the automotive segment’s margin CMP: Rs. 620 improved on a y-o-y basis despite fall in the topline. With strong farm sentiments on account of higher rainfall, expected increase in kharif output, and increased government spending, Price Target: Rs. 780 á M&M has raised FY2021 tractor industry’s growth forecast from mid-single digit growth earlier to 12%. Higher ground water reservoir levels coupled with robust farmer cash flows á Upgrade Maintain â Downgrade would mean tractor demand would remain buoyant in FY2022 as well. Automotive volumes are also improving with the decline narrowing to 14% y-o-y in October 2020 as compared to 78% in Q1FY2021. With the success of new launches (Thar with strong bookings) and inventory filling (automotive inventory is lower than normal), automotive demand is expected Company details to improve further. Moreover, tighter capital allocation strategy with focus on 18% ROE continues, with M&M announcing exit from loss-making aircraft business in Australia (Gipps Market cap: Rs. 77,034 cr Aerospace). M&M has earlier announced no further investment in loss-making Ssangyong, exit from overseas tractor assembly business (Genze), and non-participation in large postal 52-week high/low: Rs. 666 / 246 bid in USA (MANA). This would further substantially reduce losses in overseas subsidiaries and act as a key re-rating trigger for M&M. NSE volume: 56.2 lakh Key positives (No of shares) Q2FY2021 OPM at 17.8% was the highest in a decade, beating expectations. The tractor segment’s EBIT margin at 24.4% was the highest ever, while automotive EBIT margin at 6.5% BSE code: 500520 improved by 70 bps y-o-y despite fall in the topline. Cost-control measures led to better-than- expected margins. NSE code: M&M In view of strong farm sentiments, M&M has raised FY2021 tractor industry’s growth guidance from mid-single digit projected earlier to 12% growth. Free float: 100.8 cr In continuation to tighter capital allocation strategy, the company has decided to exit the (No of shares) loss-making aircraft business in Australia (Gipps Aerospace). This would further reduce losses at international subsidiaries. Key negatives Shareholding (%) Other income in Q2FY2021 declined by 53% y-o-y to Rs. 384 crore and was lower than our Promoters 19.9 estimates. Reduced dividend payout by subsidiaries led to lower other income. M&M had charge of Rs. 1,149 crore towards impairment provisions on certain long-term FII 34.2 investments. Our Call DII 24.6 Attractive valuations; Retain Buy with revised a PT of Rs. 780: M&M’s Q2FY2021 operating results were ahead of estimates, driven by margin improvement in both tractor as well as Others 21.3 automotive. Tractors are in a sweet spot with double-digit growth expected, while automotive demand is improving. Cost-control measures and operating leverage due to volume improvement would augment margins. Moreover, tighter capital-allocation strategy would trigger re-rating. We have fine-tuned our earnings estimates for FY2021 and FY2022 in wake of strong Q2 Price chart results. We have also introduced FY2023 estimates in this note. At the CMP, the stock is trading 800 at attractive valuations of 11x its core FY2023 earnings as compared to long-term historical average of 15x-16x. Hence, we retain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 780. 650 Key risk 500 Prolonged COVID-19 infection could dampen consumer sentiments and impact demand. Further, increased competitive intensity in the utility vehicles segment could affect market share. 350 200 Valuation (MM+MVML) Rs cr 20 19 20 20 - - - - Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Jul Nov Nov Mar Total Income 52,848.2 44,865.5 43,311.6 51,956.7 57,840.0 EBITDA margin (%) 14.2 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.1 Price performance PAT 5,423.9 3,550.9 3,553.0 4,576.8 5,282.8 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m FD EPS (Rs) 43.6 28.6 28.6 36.8 42.5 P/E (x) 14.2 21.7 21.7 16.8 14.6 Absolute -2.3 -1.5 58.8 7.8 P/B (x) 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 Relative to -8.9 -14.2 21.7 0.5 EV/EBIDTA (x) 9.3 11.4 11.4 8.8 7.4 Sensex ROE (%) 15.5 10.2 9.6 11.4 12.2 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg ROCE (%) 18.1 14.0 11.9 13.8 14.7 Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates November 10, 2020 1 Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Update Stock Operating results ahead of estimates; lower other income and impairment provisions impact profitability: M&M’s operating performance was better than our as well as street’s expectations, driven by better-than- anticipated margins in both automotive and tractor business. Revenue grew by 6% y-o-y (slightly better than our estimate of 3% growth). The tractor segment’s revenue grew by 33% y-o-y, driven by 30% y-o-y volume growth. The automotive segment’s revenue declined by 8% y-o-y on account of 23% y-o-y drop in volume. Automotive realisation grew by 20% y-o-y, driven by price increases on account of BS6 and better mix. OPM improved by 370 bps y-o-y to 17.8% (highest margin in a decade). Margins were better than our estimates of 14.5%. Automotive EBIT margin improved by 70 bps y-o-y to 6.5% (better than estimates of 4.3%). Automotive EBIT margins improved on a y-o-y basis despite fall in topline, driven by cost-control initiatives. Tractor EBIT margins at 24.4% were the highest ever, improving by 510 bps y-o-y (better than estimates of 21.3%). Operating leverage due to strong topline growth and cost-control measures led to better margins for tractors. EBIDTA at Rs. 2,057 crore grew by 34% y-o-y and was better than estimates of Rs. 1,627 crore. Other income declined sharply by 53% y-o-y and was lower than estimates due to lower dividend payout by subsidiaries. Adjusted PAT at Rs. 1,311 crore was in line with estimates. Moreover, M&M had impairment provision of Rs. 1,149 crore on long-term investments, which impacted profitability. Reported PAT at Rs. 162 crore declined by 88% y-o-y. Management raises tractor growth forecast; Automotive demand improving: Bountiful rainfall (9% higher), expected increase in kharif output (9% higher produce expected), and increased government rural spending have led to strong demand for tractors. The industry has grown by 12% in YTD FY2021 (April 2020 to October 2020). Management expects the trend of double-digit growth to sustain and has raised FY2021 guidance from mid-single digit growth earlier to 12%. With good farmer cashflows and high water reservoir levels (reservoir capacity stands at 86% of live capacity at the end of September as compared to 10-year LPA of 75%), M&M expects tractor demand to be buoyant in FY2022 as well. The automotive segment is also witnessing improvement in demand, with volume drop narrowing to 23% y-o-y in Q2FY2021 as compared to 78% y-o-y in Q1FY2021. Automotive volume drop further narrowed to 14% y-o-y in October 2020. With successful new launches (Thar SUV, which has strong backlog) and sub-optimal inventory, we expect automotive demand to continue to improve. We expect strong recovery in FY2022, driven by normalisation of economic activity and continued new launches. Tighter capital allocation to significantly curtail losses of international subsidiaries:M&M stated that tighter capital allocation with focus on ROE improvement would continue for international subsidiaries. M&M would exit business/not make additional investments in subsidiaries were the path to profitability is unclear. In line with the strategy, M&M has announced it would not infuse additional funds in loss-making Korean subsidiary, Ssangyong, exit tractor assembly business, Genze, and would not participate in large postal bid in MANA, USA. Additionally, the company has now decided to exit its loss-making aircraft business in Australia (Gipps Aerospace). This would lead to substantial reduction in losses in international operations and improve the overall profitability of the company.
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