Mahindra & Mahindra Set to race ahead post strong Q2
Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Automobiles Sharekhan code: M&M Result Update Update Stock
3R MATRIX + = - Summary Right Sector (RS) ü Mahindra and Mahindra’s (M&M) Q2FY2021 operating results were ahead of our as well as street expectations, driven by better-than-anticipated margins driven by cost control measures. Right Quality (RQ) ü Given strong farm sentiments, M&M has raised FY21 tractor industry guidance; automotive volumes to recover driven by new launches and inventory filling. Right Valuation (RV) ü Tighter capital allocation strategy with focus on 18% ROE to continue; M&M announces exit from loss making aircraft business in Australia (Gipps Aerospace); to improve international + Positive = Neutral - Negative subsidiary performance Stock is trading at attractive P/E of 11x core FY23 earnings. We retain Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 780. Reco/View Change Mahindra and Mahindra Limited’s (M&M) Q2FY2021 operating results were ahead of our Reco: Buy as well as street expectations, driven by better-than-anticipated margin. Operating profit margin (OPM) at 17.8% was the highest in a decade, driven by cost-control measures. The tractor segment’s EBIT margin was the highest ever, while the automotive segment’s margin CMP: Rs. 620 improved on a y-o-y basis despite fall in the topline. With strong farm sentiments on account of higher rainfall, expected increase in kharif output, and increased government spending, Price Target: Rs. 780 á M&M has raised FY2021 tractor industry’s growth forecast from mid-single digit growth earlier to 12%. Higher ground water reservoir levels coupled with robust farmer cash flows á Upgrade Maintain â Downgrade would mean tractor demand would remain buoyant in FY2022 as well. Automotive volumes are also improving with the decline narrowing to 14% y-o-y in October 2020 as compared to 78% in Q1FY2021. With the success of new launches (Thar with strong bookings) and inventory filling (automotive inventory is lower than normal), automotive demand is expected Company details to improve further. Moreover, tighter capital allocation strategy with focus on 18% ROE continues, with M&M announcing exit from loss-making aircraft business in Australia (Gipps Market cap: Rs. 77,034 cr Aerospace). M&M has earlier announced no further investment in loss-making Ssangyong, exit from overseas tractor assembly business (Genze), and non-participation in large postal 52-week high/low: Rs. 666 / 246 bid in USA (MANA). This would further substantially reduce losses in overseas subsidiaries and act as a key re-rating trigger for M&M. NSE volume: 56.2 lakh Key positives (No of shares) Q2FY2021 OPM at 17.8% was the highest in a decade, beating expectations. The tractor segment’s EBIT margin at 24.4% was the highest ever, while automotive EBIT margin at 6.5% BSE code: 500520 improved by 70 bps y-o-y despite fall in the topline. Cost-control measures led to better-than- expected margins. NSE code: M&M In view of strong farm sentiments, M&M has raised FY2021 tractor industry’s growth guidance from mid-single digit projected earlier to 12% growth. Free float: 100.8 cr In continuation to tighter capital allocation strategy, the company has decided to exit the (No of shares) loss-making aircraft business in Australia (Gipps Aerospace). This would further reduce losses at international subsidiaries. Key negatives Shareholding (%) Other income in Q2FY2021 declined by 53% y-o-y to Rs. 384 crore and was lower than our Promoters 19.9 estimates. Reduced dividend payout by subsidiaries led to lower other income. M&M had charge of Rs. 1,149 crore towards impairment provisions on certain long-term FII 34.2 investments. Our Call DII 24.6 Attractive valuations; Retain Buy with revised a PT of Rs. 780: M&M’s Q2FY2021 operating results were ahead of estimates, driven by margin improvement in both tractor as well as Others 21.3 automotive. Tractors are in a sweet spot with double-digit growth expected, while automotive demand is improving. Cost-control measures and operating leverage due to volume improvement would augment margins. Moreover, tighter capital-allocation strategy would trigger re-rating. We have fine-tuned our earnings estimates for FY2021 and FY2022 in wake of strong Q2 Price chart results. We have also introduced FY2023 estimates in this note. At the CMP, the stock is trading 800 at attractive valuations of 11x its core FY2023 earnings as compared to long-term historical average of 15x-16x. Hence, we retain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 780. 650 Key risk 500 Prolonged COVID-19 infection could dampen consumer sentiments and impact demand. Further, increased competitive intensity in the utility vehicles segment could affect market share. 350
200 Valuation (MM+MVML) Rs cr 20 19 20 20 - - - - Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Jul Nov Nov Mar Total Income 52,848.2 44,865.5 43,311.6 51,956.7 57,840.0 EBITDA margin (%) 14.2 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.1 Price performance PAT 5,423.9 3,550.9 3,553.0 4,576.8 5,282.8 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m FD EPS (Rs) 43.6 28.6 28.6 36.8 42.5 P/E (x) 14.2 21.7 21.7 16.8 14.6 Absolute -2.3 -1.5 58.8 7.8 P/B (x) 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 Relative to -8.9 -14.2 21.7 0.5 EV/EBIDTA (x) 9.3 11.4 11.4 8.8 7.4 Sensex ROE (%) 15.5 10.2 9.6 11.4 12.2 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg ROCE (%) 18.1 14.0 11.9 13.8 14.7 Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates
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Operating results ahead of estimates; lower other income and impairment provisions impact profitability: M&M’s operating performance was better than our as well as street’s expectations, driven by better-than- anticipated margins in both automotive and tractor business. Revenue grew by 6% y-o-y (slightly better than our estimate of 3% growth). The tractor segment’s revenue grew by 33% y-o-y, driven by 30% y-o-y volume growth. The automotive segment’s revenue declined by 8% y-o-y on account of 23% y-o-y drop in volume. Automotive realisation grew by 20% y-o-y, driven by price increases on account of BS6 and better mix. OPM improved by 370 bps y-o-y to 17.8% (highest margin in a decade). Margins were better than our estimates of 14.5%. Automotive EBIT margin improved by 70 bps y-o-y to 6.5% (better than estimates of 4.3%). Automotive EBIT margins improved on a y-o-y basis despite fall in topline, driven by cost-control initiatives. Tractor EBIT margins at 24.4% were the highest ever, improving by 510 bps y-o-y (better than estimates of 21.3%). Operating leverage due to strong topline growth and cost-control measures led to better margins for tractors. EBIDTA at Rs. 2,057 crore grew by 34% y-o-y and was better than estimates of Rs. 1,627 crore. Other income declined sharply by 53% y-o-y and was lower than estimates due to lower dividend payout by subsidiaries. Adjusted PAT at Rs. 1,311 crore was in line with estimates. Moreover, M&M had impairment provision of Rs. 1,149 crore on long-term investments, which impacted profitability. Reported PAT at Rs. 162 crore declined by 88% y-o-y.
Management raises tractor growth forecast; Automotive demand improving: Bountiful rainfall (9% higher), expected increase in kharif output (9% higher produce expected), and increased government rural spending have led to strong demand for tractors. The industry has grown by 12% in YTD FY2021 (April 2020 to October 2020). Management expects the trend of double-digit growth to sustain and has raised FY2021 guidance from mid-single digit growth earlier to 12%. With good farmer cashflows and high water reservoir levels (reservoir capacity stands at 86% of live capacity at the end of September as compared to 10-year LPA of 75%), M&M expects tractor demand to be buoyant in FY2022 as well. The automotive segment is also witnessing improvement in demand, with volume drop narrowing to 23% y-o-y in Q2FY2021 as compared to 78% y-o-y in Q1FY2021. Automotive volume drop further narrowed to 14% y-o-y in October 2020. With successful new launches (Thar SUV, which has strong backlog) and sub-optimal inventory, we expect automotive demand to continue to improve. We expect strong recovery in FY2022, driven by normalisation of economic activity and continued new launches.
Tighter capital allocation to significantly curtail losses of international subsidiaries:M&M stated that tighter capital allocation with focus on ROE improvement would continue for international subsidiaries. M&M would exit business/not make additional investments in subsidiaries were the path to profitability is unclear. In line with the strategy, M&M has announced it would not infuse additional funds in loss-making Korean subsidiary, Ssangyong, exit tractor assembly business, Genze, and would not participate in large postal bid in MANA, USA. Additionally, the company has now decided to exit its loss-making aircraft business in Australia (Gipps Aerospace). This would lead to substantial reduction in losses in international operations and improve the overall profitability of the company. M&M is targeting 18% ROE over the next few years and reduction in international subsidiary losses would be a key factor.
Key Conference call takeaways Raised tractor demand forecast: Given strong rural sentiments because of bountiful rainfall (9% above normal), expected increase in kharif output (9% higher output), and government’s reform measures, tractor demand is expected to remain strong. M&M stated that YTD FY2021 (April 2020 to October 2020) tractor demand at industry level has grown by 12%, and it expects double-digit growth to continue in remainder of FY2021 as well. M&M has raised FY2021 tractor volume forecast from mid-single digit growth earlier to 12%.
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New launches: In the automotive segment, M&M launched ‘Thar’ SUV. The company stated that it has received encouraging response, having garnered 20,000 bookings in one month of its launch. Thar has attracted a whole new set of buyers with about 55% of bookings from first-time buyers. Moreover, about 44% of bookings were for the automatic variant. In the tractor segment, M&M launched ‘XP Plus’ range of tractors in both Bhoomiputra and Sarpanch range of tractors. International farm equipment subsidiaries turn profitable: M&M stated that international subsidiaries in the farm equipment segment have turned profitable after a long time. International subsidiaries posted EBIT profit of Rs. 3 crore in Q2FY2021. Concentrated efforts in reducing costs have led to profits. Commodity costs to increase: M&M stated that commodity costs are increasing and the impact of the same would be felt from Q3FY2021. Cost-control measures to continue: M&M stated that cost-control initiatives taken in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic would continue. M&M is looking at various measures to rein in costs such as focusing on digital marketing, reduction in travelling and logistics expenses, and optimising manpower. Tighter capital allocation to continue: M&M stated that tighter capital allocation strategy with focus on ROE improvement would continue. In line with this strategy, M&M has decided to exit loss-making business, Gipps Aerospace (aircraft manufacturing subsidiary in Australia). Earlier, M&M had announced exit from Genze tractor assembly, no further investment in loss-making Ssangyong, and no USPS bid in MANA. This would continue to reduce losses in international operations. Inventory levels below optimal levels in both tractor and auto: M&M stated that with rising cases of COVID-19 in Maharashtra, its plants both (automotive and tractor) were severely impacted and faced production constraints. As such, M&M’s channel inventory is below optimal levels in both automotive as well as tractors. M&M stated it would replenish channel inventory post the end of the festive season in Q4FY2021. M&M expects production to resume stability in Q4FY2021. Marginal market share loss in tractors: M&M expects marginal market share loss in tractors in FY2021, given production constraints in the festive season.
Results (MM+MVML) Rs cr Particulars Q2FY21 Q2FY20 %YoY Q1FY21 %QoQ Revenue 11,590.3 10,935.1 6.0 5,589.4 107.4 Total Expenses 9,533.0 9,394.2 1.5 5,016.3 90.0 EBITDA 2,057.3 1,540.8 33.5 573.2 258.9 Other income 383.9 822.5 -53.3 133.8 187.0 Depreciation 587.0 572.1 2.6 581.3 1.0 Interest 117.9 33.1 256.0 76.8 53.4 PBT 1,736.4 1,758.2 -1.2 48.8 3455.2 Tax 425.2 403.4 5.4 9.9 4198.8 Adjusted PAT 1,311.2 1,354.8 -3.2 38.9 3266.4 Reported PAT 161.8 1,354.8 -88.1 67.8 138.6 EPS 10.5 10.9 -3.2 0.3 3266.4 EBITDA margin (%) 17.8 14.1 370 bps 10.3 750 bps Source: Company; Sharekhan Research
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Segmental Rs cr Particulars Q2FY21 Q2FY20 %YoY Q1FY21 %QoQ Automotive division Volumes (units) 92,024 1,19,570 -23.0 29,651 210.4 Revenues 6,356.5 6,892.8 -7.8 2,039.5 211.7 PBIT 411.7 397.3 3.6 -58.7 NA PBIT Margins (%) 6.5 5.8 70 bps -2.9 940 bps Farm Equipment division Volumes (units) 93,246 71,820 29.8 65,657 42.0 Revenues 4,835.4 3,631.5 33.2 3,340.8 44.7 PBIT 1179.5 701.9 68.1 682.3 72.9 PBIT Margins (%) 24.4 19.3 510 bps 20.4 400 bps Others Revenues 445.5 487.3 -8.6 220.5 102.0 PBIT 12.7 18.3 -30.7 -5.4 NA PBIT Margins (%) 2.8 3.8 (100 bps) -2.4 530 bps Source: Company; Sharekhan Research
SOTP table Particulars per share (Rs.) Remarks Core business (MM+MVML) 557 At 14x FY23 earnings Key Subsidiaries Tech Mahindra 182 Bloomberg consensus estimates Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services 79 FY23 Book value Ltd Mahindra Lifespace 6 Market cap Mahindra Holiday Resort 13 Market cap Mahindra CIE 5 Market cap Ssangyong 23 Market cap Mahindra Logistics 7 Market cap Swaraj Engines 5 Market cap Value of subsidiaries before discount 320 - After holdings 30% discount 224 - Target Price 780 - Source: Company; Sharekhan Research
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Outlook and Valuation n Sector View – Tractors on a strong footing; Automotive volumes recover The domestic tractor industry is the only segment reporting growth on a y-o-y basis in H1FY2021 as the agricultural sector has been relatively less impacted by COVID-19. Good monsoons and higher kharif sowing have boosted farm sentiments, with the tractor industry growing in double digits since June 2020. The tractor industry is expected to grow in double digits in FY2021. The PV and LCV industry have reported growth for three consecutive months (August 2020 to October 2020), driven by opening of the economy and increased preference for personal transportation. We expect strong recovery for PV and LCV from FY2022, driven by normalisation of economic activity and pent-up demand. n Company Outlook – To strengthen leadership in tractors; Auto volumes to improve; Tighter capital- allocation policy to trigger re-rating M&M is the market leader in tractors, commanding market share of about 41%. The company is working on lightweight compact global tractor project (named K2), which would see the launch of four new platforms. K2 would witness launch of 38 models and would further strengthen the company’s position in the tractor space. M&M’s collaboration with Ford in utility vehicles would see the company launch products in the B and C segment SUV, which would strengthen its position in the utility vehicle segment. Moreover, with a strong 39% market share in LCV, M&M would gain from strong recovery in demand. Moreover, tighter capital-allocation strategy of no fund infusion in businesses with an unclear path to profitability would significantly improve the overall performance and act as a key re-rating trigger. n Valuation – Attractive valuations; Retain Buy with a revised PT of Rs. 780 M&M’s Q2FY2021 operating results were ahead of estimates, driven by margin improvement in both tractor as well as automotive. Tractors are in a sweet spot with double-digit growth expected, while automotive demand is improving. Cost-control measures and operating leverage due to volume improvement would augment margins. Moreover, tighter capital-allocation strategy would trigger re-rating. We have fine-tuned our earnings estimates for FY2021 and FY2022 in wake of strong Q2 results. We have also introduced FY2023 estimates in this note. At the CMP, the stock is trading at attractive valuations of 11x its core FY2023 earnings as compared to long-term historical average of 15x-16x. Hence, we retain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 780.
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About company M&M is the flagship company of Mahindra Group. M&M’s core business houses the automotive and tractor segment. M&M is the only automotive company that is virtually present across all segments. The company is the market leader in light commercial vehicles and is a leading utility vehicle, and 3W player. M&M also manufactures MHCV and is present in the 2W space through its investment in Jawa. Apart from being a strong player in the automotive space, M&M is the market leader in the tractor segment, having market share of about 40%. Apart from the core business, M&M is also the promoter/holds controlling interest in companies that are engaged in diverse businesses under the Mahindra brand (IT services, NBFC, logistics, hospitality, real estate, and auto ancillary business).
Investment theme M&M’s Q2FY2021 operating results were ahead of our as well as street expectations, driven by better-than- anticipated margins. With strong farm sentiments on account of higher rainfall, expected increase in kharif output, and increased government spending, M&M has raised FY2021 tractor industry’s growth forecast from mid-single digit growth earlier to 12%. Higher ground water reservoir levels coupled with robust farmer cash flows would mean tractor demand would remain buoyant in FY2022 as well. Automotive volumes are also improving with the decline narrowing to 14% y-o-y in October 2020 as compared to 78% in Q1FY2021. With the success of new launches (Thar with strong bookings) and inventory filling (automotive inventory is lower than normal), automotive demand is expected to improve further. Moreover, tighter capital-allocation strategy with focus on 18% ROE continues, with M&M announcing exit from its loss-making aircraft business in Australia (Gipps Aerospace). M&M had earlier announced no further investment in loss-making Ssangyong, exit from overseas tractor assembly business (Genze), and non-participation in large postal bid in USA (MANA). This would further substantially reduce losses in overseas subsidiaries and act as key re-rating trigger for M&M.
Key Risks Prolonged COVID-19 infection could dampen consumer sentiments and impact demand. Further, increased competitive intensity in the utility vehicles segment could affect market share.
Additional Data
Key management personnel Anand Mahindra Executive Chairman Pawan Goenka Managing Director Anish Shah Deputy Managing Director & Group CFO Rajesh Jejurikar Executive Director Source: Company Website
Top 10 shareholders Sr. No. Holder Name Holding (%) 1 PRUDENTIAL MGMT & SERVICES 11.38 2 M & M BENEFIT TRUST 6.79 3 First State Investments 4.56 4 MAHINDRA & MAHIN EMP STK OP TRST 4.06 5 SBI Funds Management Pvt Ltd 2.61 6 BlackRock Inc 2.09 7 Vanguard Group Inc 1.71 8 ICICI Prudential Asset Management 1.6 9 Republic of Singapore 1.4 10 Franklin Resources Inc 1.2 Source: Bloomberg
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November 10, 2020 6 Understanding the Sharekhan 3R Matrix Right Sector Positive Strong industry fundamentals (favorable demand-supply scenario, consistent industry growth), increasing investments, higher entry barrier, and favorable government policies Neutral Stagnancy in the industry growth due to macro factors and lower incremental investments by Government/private companies Negative Unable to recover from low in the stable economic environment, adverse government policies affecting the business fundamentals and global challenges (currency headwinds and unfavorable policies implemented by global industrial institutions) and any significant increase in commodity prices affecting profitability. Right Quality Positive Sector leader, Strong management bandwidth, Strong financial track-record, Healthy Balance sheet/cash flows, differentiated product/service portfolio and Good corporate governance. Neutral Macro slowdown affecting near term growth profile, Untoward events such as natural calamities resulting in near term uncertainty, Company specific events such as factory shutdown, lack of positive triggers/events in near term, raw material price movement turning unfavourable Negative Weakening growth trend led by led by external/internal factors, reshuffling of key management personal, questionable corporate governance, high commodity prices/weak realisation environment resulting in margin pressure and detoriating balance sheet Right Valuation Positive Strong earnings growth expectation and improving return ratios but valuations are trading at discount to industry leaders/historical average multiples, Expansion in valuation multiple due to expected outperformance amongst its peers and Industry up-cycle with conducive business environment. Neutral Trading at par to historical valuations and having limited scope of expansion in valuation multiples. Negative Trading at premium valuations but earnings outlook are weak; Emergence of roadblocks such as corporate governance issue, adverse government policies and bleak global macro environment etc warranting for lower than historical valuation multiple. Source: Sharekhan Research Know more about our products and services
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