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MM in Equity 29May21 RU

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MM in Equity 29May21 RU India Equity Research Automobiles May 29, 2021 MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA RESULT UPDATE KEY DATA Strong showing; focus on RoE Rating BUY Sector relative Outperformer Price (INR) 846 12 month price target (INR) 1,089 M&M’s Q4FY21 EBITDA (INR19bn) continued to outdo expectations. Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 1,052/14.5 We are not concerned about the perceived rise in capital investment Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 81.1/33.4 What’s Changed guidance for FY22–24 as it does not have a meaningful impact Target Price Rating/Risk Rating ⚊ INR60/share drop in surplus cash) and is guided by 18% RoE. Besides, part of capex is discretionary. Meanwhile, auto and farm subsidiaries QUICK TAKE (ex-SsangYong) reported profit with lower capital employed. Above In line Below M&M continues to walk the talk on two key RoIC drags (refer to Profit Margins (Mis)perceptions and misfires): UVs and subsidiary losses. All in all, Revenue we maintain ‘BUY’ with an SoTP-based TP of INR1,089 (earlier Growth INR1,113) factoring in higher capital investments; our earnings Overall estimates and valuation multiple remain unchanged. FINANCIALS (INR mn) Q4FY21: Robust performance Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E M&M’s reported revenue of INR133bn (up 48% YoY) beat our estimate by 10%. Revenue 4,45,744 5,69,343 6,38,616 7,24,961 EBITDA at INR19bn exceeded expectation by 4%. The FES segment’s revenue EBITDA 69,766 81,994 90,749 1,02,541 Adjusted profit 54,047 50,997 56,785 64,208 improved 60% YoY (led by volume growth of ~58% YoY) to INR50bn (EBIT margin at Diluted EPS (INR) 45.4 42.8 47.7 53.9 22%, up 437bps YoY). Automotive revenue improved ~43% YoY, led by higher EPS growth (%) 24.1 (5.6) 11.3 13.1 realisation (BSVI, better product mix) of 19% YoY and volume growth. EBIT margin RoAE (%) 15.5 13.6 13.4 13.4 came in at 5%, improved by 90bps YoY. A sharp spike in raw material prices coupled P/E (x) 18.7 19.8 17.8 15.7 with persistent supply challenges (in auto) could weigh on near-term margins; the EV/EBITDA (x) 15.4 12.8 11.3 9.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 impact thereof would be mitigated by a better product mix and pricing action, if any. Guiding lights: 15–20% revenue CAGR aspiration and 18% RoE PRICE PERFORMANCE Capex guidance has been upped by INR30bn (for EVs) to INR120bn over FY22–24 950 53,000 (last three years at INR150bn). M&M also guided for INR15bn in auto and farm 845 48,800 subsidiaries, and INR35bn for other businesses (including potential gems). 740 44,600 Management committed that cash flows of the auto and tractor business would be 635 40,400 be largely utilised thereof. Investment in group companies will be funded by 530 36,200 425 32,000 dividend/other asset monetisation. If capex or investment needs are not justifiable May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 by underlying growth drivers and ROE, management will not pursue theme. 15-20% MM IN Equity Sensex revenue CAGR would be driven by auto, international subsidiaries (low base). Outlook and valuation: Re-rating potential exists; maintain ‘BUY’ Explore: As the RoIC drags gets addressed, the true franchise value of the tractor and LCV business would be recognised. Furthermore, RoIC drags will start contributing to cash flow post-restructuring. Maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with an SoTP-based TP of INR1,089. M&M is trading at FY22/23E PER of 15.2x/13.5x (ex-listed subsidiaries). Financial model Podcast Financials Year to March Q4FY21 Q4FY20 % Change Q3FY21 % Change Net Revenue 1,33,382 90,047 48.1 1,40,565 (5.1) EBITDA 19,605 12,275 59.7 23,856 (17.8) Adjusted Profit 10,411 10,778 (3.4) 17,019 (38.8) Video Corporate access Diluted EPS (INR) 8.7 9.0 (3.4) 14.3 (38.8) Chirag Shah +91 (22) 6623 3367 [email protected] Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA Financial Statements Income Statement (INR mn) Balance Sheet (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Total operating income 4,45,744 5,69,343 6,38,616 7,24,961 Share capital 5,974 5,974 5,974 5,974 Gross profit 1,43,979 1,79,352 1,97,398 2,23,609 Reserves 3,47,239 3,92,599 4,43,466 5,01,460 Employee costs 32,428 38,146 42,787 48,572 Shareholders funds 3,53,212 3,98,573 4,49,440 5,07,433 Other expenses 41,785 59,212 63,862 72,496 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 EBITDA 69,766 81,994 90,749 1,02,541 Borrowings 72,143 72,143 72,143 72,143 Depreciation 23,624 26,252 29,142 32,622 Trade payables 1,06,438 1,09,189 1,22,474 1,39,034 Less: Interest expense 3,957 3,000 3,000 3,000 Other liabs & prov 68,265 71,393 67,817 75,027 Add: Other income 11,973 14,803 16,604 18,124 Total liabilities 6,19,110 6,71,303 7,32,880 8,15,692 Profit before tax 54,158 67,546 75,212 85,043 Net block 1,81,325 1,95,073 2,05,932 2,13,310 Prov for tax 13,183 16,549 18,427 20,836 Intangible assets 0 0 0 0 Less: Other adj (31,745) 0 0 0 Capital WIP 0 0 0 0 Reported profit 40,974 50,997 56,785 64,208 Total fixed assets 1,81,325 1,95,073 2,05,932 2,13,310 Less: Excp.item (net) (13,072) 0 0 0 Non current inv 1,77,978 1,89,478 1,97,478 2,05,478 Adjusted profit 54,047 50,997 56,785 64,208 Cash/cash equivalent 52,279 71,209 1,02,058 1,54,803 Diluted shares o/s 1,192 1,192 1,192 1,192 Sundry debtors 22,012 32,586 36,551 41,493 Adjusted diluted EPS 45.4 42.8 47.7 53.9 Loans & advances 19,399 14,342 15,763 17,528 DPS (INR) 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.2 Other assets 1,29,509 1,32,006 1,38,490 1,46,472 Tax rate (%) 24.3 24.5 24.5 24.5 Total assets 6,19,110 6,71,303 7,32,880 8,15,692 Important Ratios (%) Free Cash Flow (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Gross profit margin (%) 32.3 31.5 30.9 30.8 Reported profit 40,974 50,997 56,785 64,208 Staff cost % sales 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 Add: Depreciation 23,624 26,252 29,142 32,622 Other expenses % sales 9.4 10.4 10.0 10.0 Interest (net of tax) 1,630 2,265 2,265 2,265 EBITDA margin (%) 15.7 14.4 14.2 14.1 Others 32,707 (14,068) (15,869) (17,389) Net profit margin (%) 12.1 9.0 8.9 8.9 Less: Changes in WC (3,039) (1,183) (1,159) 10,130 Revenue growth (% YoY) (0.6) 27.7 12.2 13.5 Operating cash flow 95,896 64,263 71,163 91,835 EBITDA growth (% YoY) 9.9 17.5 10.7 13.0 Less: Capex (35,856) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) Adj. profit growth (%) 24.1 (5.6) 11.3 13.1 Free cash flow 60,040 24,263 31,163 51,835 Assumptions (%) Key Ratios Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E GDP (YoY %) (6.0) 7.0 6.0 6.0 RoE (%) 15.5 13.6 13.4 13.4 Repo rate (%) 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 RoCE (%) 14.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 USD/INR (average) 75.0 73.0 72.0 72.0 Inventory days 53 46 44 44 Tractor - dom. vol. (% 18.0 8.0 5.0 5.0 Receivable days 21 18 20 20 YoY) Payable days 108 101 96 95 UV - dom. vol. (% YoY) 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Working cap (% sales) 2.4 2.3 2.4 0.8 LCV - dom. vol. (% YoY) (20.0) 15.0 15.0 15.0 Gross debt/equity (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 M&M Total vol (nos) 7,06,779.0 8,89,919.2 10,03,421. 11,27,965. Net debt/equity (x) 0.1 0 (0.1) (0.2) 0 1 Interest coverage (x) 11.7 18.6 20.5 23.3 % Growth (9.1) 25.9 12.8 12.4 EBITDA/vehicle 98,709.4 92,136.9 90,439.9 10,00,000. 0 Valuation Drivers Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Valuation Metrics EPS growth (%) 24.1 (5.6) 11.3 13.1 Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E RoE (%) 15.5 13.6 13.4 13.4 Diluted P/E (x) 18.7 19.8 17.8 15.7 EBITDA growth (%) 9.9 17.5 10.7 13.0 Payout ratio (%) 13.1 11.1 10.4 9.7 Price/BV (x) 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.4 12.8 11.3 9.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Source: Company and Edelweiss estimates 2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA Q4FY21 analyst call: Key Highlights Aiming for 15% to 20% revenue growth over nest 5 years.
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