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EURASIAN DISUNION Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks __________________________________________________ By Janusz Bugajski and Margarita Assenova Washington, DC June 2016 THE JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION Published in the United States by The Jamestown Foundation 1310 L Street NW Suite 810 Washington, DC 20005 http://www.jamestown.org Copyright © 2016 The Jamestown Foundation All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written consent. For copyright and permissions information, contact The Jamestown Foundation, 1310 L Street NW, Suite 810, Washington, DC 20005. The views expressed in the book are those of the authors and not necessarily those of The Jamestown Foundation. For more information on this book of The Jamestown Foundation, email [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-9855045-5-7 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Bugajski, Janusz, 1954- author. | Assenova, Margarita author. Title: Eurasian disunion : Russia's vulnerable flanks / Janusz Bugajski and Margarita Assenova. Description: Washington, DC : The Jamestown Foundation, 2016. Identifiers: LCCN 2015034025 | ISBN 9780985504557 (pbk.) Subjects: LCSH: Russia (Federation)--Foreign relations--21st century. | Russia (Federation)--Boundaries. | Geopolitics--Russia (Federation) | Geopolitics--Eurasia. Classification: LCC JZ1616 .B839 2015 | DDC 327.47--dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015034025 Cover art provided by Peggy Archambault of Peggy Archambault Design. i Jamestown’s Mission The Jamestown Foundation’s mission is to inform and educate policy makers and the broader community about events and trends in those societies which are strategically or tactically important to the United States and which frequently restrict access to such information. Utilizing indigenous and primary sources, Jamestown’s material is delivered without political bias, filter or agenda. It is often the only source of information which should be, but is not always, available through official or intelligence channels, especially in regard to Eurasia and terrorism. Origins Founded in 1984 by William Geimer, The Jamestown Foundation made a direct contribution to the downfall of Communism through its dissemination of information about the closed totalitarian societies of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. William Geimer worked with Arkady Shevchenko, the highest- ranking Soviet official ever to defect when he left his position as undersecretary general of the United Nations. Shevchenko’s memoir Breaking With Moscow revealed the details of Soviet superpower diplomacy, arms control strategy and tactics in the Third World, at the height of the Cold War. Through its work with Shevchenko, Jamestown rapidly became the leading source of information about the inner workings of the captive nations of the former Communist Bloc. In addition to Shevchenko, Jamestown assisted the former top Romanian intelligence officer Ion Pacepa in writing his memoirs. Jamestown ensured that both men published their insights and experience in what became bestselling books. Even today, several decades later, some credit Pacepa’s revelations about Ceausescu’s regime in his bestselling book Red Horizons with the fall of that government and the freeing of Romania. ii The Jamestown Foundation has emerged as a leading provider of information about Eurasia. Our research and analysis on conflict and instability in Eurasia enabled Jamestown to become one of the most reliable sources of information on the post-Soviet space, the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as China. Furthermore, since 9/11, Jamestown has utilized its network of indigenous experts in more than 50 different countries to conduct research and analysis on terrorism and the growth of al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda offshoots throughout the globe. By drawing on our ever-growing global network of experts, Jamestown has become a vital source of unfiltered, open-source information about major conflict zones around the world—from the Black Sea to Siberia, from the Persian Gulf to Latin America and the Pacific. Our core of intellectual talent includes former high-ranking government officials and military officers, political scientists, journalists, scholars and economists. Their insight contributes significantly to policymakers engaged in addressing today’s newly emerging global threats in the post 9/11 world. iii Table of Contents Jamestown’s Mission…………………………………………...i Acknowledgements…………………………………………....iv Foreword………………………………………………………..v Executive Summary……………………………………………1 1. Introduction: Russia’s Imperial Agenda…………………...3 2. Northern Flank: Baltic and Nordic………………………..66 3. Western Flank: East Central Europe…………………….139 4. South Western Flank: South East Europe……………….219 5. Southern Flank: South Caucasus………………………....282 6. South Eastern Flank: Central Asia……………………….370 7. Conclusion: Russia’s Future and Western Responses…..461 Appendix I: Maps of Vulnerable Flanks……………………499 Appendix II: Author Biographies…………………………..504 iv Acknowledgements We would like to extend our utmost thanks to all the people we consulted and debated in Washington and along each of Russia’s vulnerable flanks in the Wider Europe and Central Asia. Our sincere gratitude to The Jamestown Foundation and its President Glen Howard for being at the forefront of prescient analysis on Russia and the “Eurasian” world. Finally, exceptional praise for Matthew Czekaj, Program Associate for Europe and Eurasia at The Jamestown Foundation, for his outstanding and rapid reaction editing. v Foreword This monumental work dissects the international ambitions of the Russian government under the presidency of Vladimir Putin. Since he gained power over fifteen years ago, the former KGB colonel has focused his attention on rebuilding a Moscow-centered bloc in order to return Russia to global superpower status and to compete geopolitically with the West. As a result of the Kremlin’s expansionist objectives, the security of several regions that border the Russian Federation has been undermined and, in some cases, the national independence and territorial integrity of nearby states has been violated. Janusz Bugajski and Margarita Assenova’s thoroughly researched volume not only assesses Moscow’s ambitions, strategies and tactics, it also meticulously details the various tools used by the Kremlin to integrate or subvert its neighbors and to weaken NATO and the European Union. It examines five major flanks along Russia’s borders that are particularly prone to Moscow’s aggressiveness—from the Arctic and the Baltic to the Caspian and Central Asia—and analyzes the various instruments of pressure that Moscow employs against individual states. No other work of this depth and breadth has been produced to date. At a time when Russia’s revisionism and expansionism is accelerating, it is essential reading for policymakers and students of competitive geopolitics. In addition to examining Russia’s assertive policies, the authors assess the future role of NATO, the EU, and the US in the Wider Europe and offer several concrete policy recommendations for Washington and Brussels that would consolidate a more effective trans-Atlantic alliance to ensure the security of states bordering a vi volatile Russia. Glen Howard President, Jamestown Foundation May 2016 Executive Summary Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the dismemberment of its territory is not an isolated operation. It constitutes one component of a broader strategic agenda to rebuild a Moscow-centered bloc designed to compete with the West. The acceleration of President Vladimir Putin’s neo-imperial project has challenged the security of several regions that border the Russian Federation, focused attention on the geopolitical aspects of the Kremlin’s ambitions, and sharpened the debate on the future role of NATO, the EU, and the US in the Wider Europe. This book is intended to generate a more informed policy debate on the dangers stemming from the restoration of a Russian-centered “pole of power” or “sphere of influence” in Eurasia. It focuses on five vulnerable flanks bordering the Russian Federation—the Baltic and Nordic zones, East Central Europe, South East Europe, South Caucasus, and Central Asia. It examines several pivotal questions including: the strategic objectives of Moscow’s expansionist ambitions; Kremlin tactics and capabilities; the impact of Russia’s assertiveness on the national security of its neighbors; the responses of vulnerable states to Russia’s geopolitical ambitions; the impact of prolonged regional turmoil on the stability of the Russian Federation and the survival of the Putinist regime; and the repercussions of heightened regional tensions for US, NATO, and EU policy toward Russia and toward unstable regions bordering the Russian Federation. 2 | EURASIAN DISUNION The book concludes with concrete policy recommendations for Washington and Brussels in the wake of the escalating confrontation with Russia. The Western approach toward Moscow needs to focus on consolidating a dynamic trans-Atlantic alliance, repelling and deterring a belligerent Russia, ensuring the security of all states bordering Russia, and preparing for a potential implosion of the Russian Federation. 1. Introduction: Russia’s Imperial Agenda Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2014 and the subsequent dismemberment of its territory is not an isolated operation. It constitutes one component of a much broader strategic agenda to rebuild a Moscow-centered bloc that is intended to compete with