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REASSESSING REBELLION EXPLORING RECENT TRENDS in CIVIL WAR DYNAMICS an OEF Research Report REASSESSING REBELLION: Exploring Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics

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REASSESSING REBELLION EXPLORING RECENT TRENDS in CIVIL WAR DYNAMICS an OEF Research Report REASSESSING REBELLION: Exploring Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics REASSESSING REBELLION EXPLORING RECENT TRENDS IN CIVIL WAR DYNAMICS An OEF Research Report REASSESSING REBELLION: Exploring Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics Eric Keels Jay Benson John Filitz Joshua Lambert March 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.18289/OEF.2019.035 ©Copyright One Earth Future 2019. All rights reserved Cover photo: Members of Jihadist group Hamza Abdualmuttalib train near Aleppo on July 19, 2012. Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Image Produced in cooperation with Human Security Report Project TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................01 Key Findings .........................................................................................................................................02 Summary of Policy Suggestions .............................................................................................................02 I. OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................................................................03 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................03 Stucture .................................................................................................................................................04 II. MODES OF WARFARE .......................................................................................................................... 05 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................05 Data and Trends.....................................................................................................................................06 Conventional vs. Irregular Wars: General Trends ..................................................................................08 Contemporary Wars ..............................................................................................................................15 Conclusions ...........................................................................................................................................20 III. TRENDS IN REBEL USE OF CIVILIAN VICTIMIZATION .............................................................22 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................22 Characteristics and Drivers of One-Sided Violence ...............................................................................22 Trends in Rebel One-Sided Violence ......................................................................................................24 Sexual Violence in Civil War...................................................................................................................28 The Strategic Logic of Terrorism ............................................................................................................32 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................35 IV. LOCATION OF ARMED CONFLICT ......................................................................................................36 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................36 Location and Geography in Armed Conflict ...........................................................................................37 Data and Trends.....................................................................................................................................38 A Closer Look: Examining Recent Trends in South Sudan and the DRC .................................................42 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................48 V. ORGANIZATION OF REBEL GROUPS ..................................................................................................49 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................49 Rebel Group Ideology ............................................................................................................................49 Trends in Rebel Group Ideology ............................................................................................................50 Rebel Group Structure ...........................................................................................................................54 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................60 VI. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ..........................................61 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................61 Assessing New Rebellions .....................................................................................................................61 Summary of Policy Options for the International Community .............................................................62 1 | Reassessing Rebellion: Exploring Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics The report addresses four components of armed conflict: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY how wars are fought (conventional versus asymmetric), The last two decades have built a significant amount of who is targeted by rebel violence, where civil war knowledge surrounding armed conflict; both academic violence is occurring within countries, and how the research and widely distributed policy reports have structures of rebel organizations have evolved over the pointed to a general decline in armed conflict. The last few decades. In addition to identifying trends, this decline, though, has largely ended: 2016 represented report also offers suggestions on policies to mitigate the one of the worst years for armed conflict since the end effects of armed conflict as well as reduce the likelihood of the Cold War, with over 50 separate armed conflicts that international involvement will exacerbate ongoing occurring. Though fighting decreased somewhat in 2017, insurgencies. The report points to a clear evolution in the current surge in civil wars represents a stark departure the organizational structures of rebel groups and where from past trends. With this point in mind, it is notable rebels are seeking to contest state control. This may have that past reports often focused simply on the prevalence unintended consequences for how the international of armed conflict as opposed to exploring variations community seeks to manage future armed conflicts. within armed conflict. Many reports on the trends in The first part of this report examines how rebel groups are armed conflict also provide little in the way of concrete prosecuting civil wars; in particular, how often insurgents policy suggestions to mitigate it. While informative, past are using asymmetric violence as opposed to conventional reports do little to prepare policymakers for what wars armed conflicts. The findings indicate that while asymmetric will look like in the twenty-first century. insurgencies remain the most common form of warfare, To address this gap, OEF Research has produced a new current political dynamics are making conventional civil report that explores the shifting dynamics of civil wars. wars easier for dissidents to mount. In the following section, this report explores the use of civilian victimization as a Syrian rebel fighters from the ‘National Liberation Front’ parade following military training at an unknown location in the northern countryside of the Idlib province on September 11, 2018, in anticipation for an upcoming government forces offensive. photo: AAREF WATAD/AFP/Getty Images 2 | Reassessing Rebellion: Exploring Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics deliberate strategy of rebel groups, focusing on one-sided though, may inadvertently lead to greater killings, sexual violence, and soft-target terrorist attacks. The targeting of civilians by rebel groups. report then covers how the location of civil war violence is 3. Despite the international focus on urban fighting changing. Civil war battles, in general, appear to be moving in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, most civil war battles away from major cities, while rebel one-sided violence is are moving farther away from major cities starting to move closer to major cities. Finally, the report rather than moving closer. Unfortunately, recent includes a look at how rebel group structures are evolving trends in rebel violence suggest that rebels over time. In particular, the findings suggest that rebels are are attacking civilians closer to major cities. becoming more decentralized and more religious. The report These trends may depend on domestic political then concludes with a summary of findings and offers broad stability and subnational geographic factors. policy suggestions for dealing with new insurgencies. One key facet of this report is that it provides a composite 4. Rebel groups are becoming more decentralized sketch of what the typical insurgency will look like in the and more religious,
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