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Azalea Commons Retail Development 4900 Brook Road Richmond, Virginia

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AZALEA COMMONS RETAIL DEVELOPMENT 4900 BROOK ROAD RICHMOND, VIRGINIA DAVID WASHINGTON Practicum for MS in Real Estate Carey Business School Johns Hopkins University April 30, 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .........................................................I • Summary of Project Development • Summary of Finance and Investment Requirements • SWOT Analysis Location and Geography ...................................................II • Map of Site • Directions to Site Economic Analysis ............................................................III • National Economy • Richmond Metro Economy Retail Market Analysis.......................................................IV • Inventory and Construction • Richmond Northeast Retail Sub-market • Market Competition Site Analysis .......................................................................V • Westminster Canterbury • Adjacent Residential Neighborhoods Demographic Analysis ......................................................VI • Regional Snapshot • Demographic Analysis of Richmond and Henrico Co. Retail Trends and Potential Market Capture. ...................VII • Trade Area Map • Trade Area Demographics • Psychographics • Retail Trends & Potential Market Capture • Consumer Expenditure Analysis • Trade area Sales Volume Finance and Investment Analysis.....................................VIII • Project Development Budget • Project’s Operating Performance • Financial Analysis • Ownership Structure Zoning and Land Use Regulations....................................IX TABLE OF CONTENTS • Current Zoning • Zoning of Surrounding Properties • County Comprehensive Plan • Required Development Standards Site Design and Architecture.............................................X • Design Strategy and Concept • Site Design Features and Amenities Construction Management Controls .................................XI • Project Delivery Method • Risk Management • Development Team and Responsibilities • Project Schedule Market Strategy and Execution .........................................XII • Leasing Management • Prospective Tenants Appendix/Exhibits Page 3 of 63 ______________________________________________________________________________ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Proposed Project Azalea Commons Location 4900 Brook Road, Richmond Virginia 23227 Projected Development Cost $11.1M Land (sunk cost, excluded from total costs) $1.6M Sitework and Improvements $27.4M Construction/Hard Costs $6.3M Design, Legal, Permits and other Soft Costs $35.30M Total Project Costs Planned Construction Schedule Design & Public Approvals: July 2008 to May 2009 Sitework, Utilities, and Landscaping: Mar ‘09 to Sept ‘09 Building Construction June 2009 to October 2010 Financing Requirements $27.3M Construction Loan $7.58M Equity $500K Enterprise Zone Grant from County $29.012M Permanent Debt/Mortgage Investment Analysis NPV is $7,430,340 at a 12 percent hurdle rate IRR 19.35 percent DCF/Holding Period 12 years Trade Area Demographics Total Population for Five Mile Radius: 214,639 Total Households for Five Mile Radius: 97,067 Average HH Income Five Mile Radius: $54,442 Daytime Work Population: 125,229 Traffic Count: 146,525 Zoning B-2 Business District/Commercial, Urban Mixed Use. Proposed development conforms with zoning regulations and County Master Plan PROJECT DESCRIPTION This proposal is for the redevelopment of 4900 Brook Road, Richmond Virginia 23227 (Henrico County). The site contains 30 acres and was previously a regional shopping mall but became functionally obsolete and unable to compete with newer malls as the region’s demographics changed and was therefore demolished in the early 1990s. Site has been fallow since then and should be redeveloped as mixed use with retail and other uses to serve this underserved neighborhood that _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Azalea Commons Page 4 of 63 ______________________________________________________________________________ straddles the City or Richmond and County of Henrico. This proposal is for the retail component only. Future development should be phased as the market dictates space needs. PROPOSED LAND USE PLAN Land Use & Building Information Site Area 1,306,800 Sq.ft. 30.00 /Acres Land Use Plan Lot Coverage Acres Square Ft. Retail Gross Buildable Area 15.73% 4.72 205,555.00 Parking 6.12% 1.84 800 Spaces 80,000.00 Open Space/Landscaping 8.33% 2.50 108,900.00 Reserved for Future Mixed use Development 69.82% 20.94 912,345.00 GRAND TOTAL 100.00% 30.00 1,306,800.00 Planned Uses: Retail Development Gross Sq. Ft. Leasable Sq. Ft. Retail 170,355 153,000 Health Club/Gym 11,000 10,000 Restaurants 24,200 22,000 TOTALS 205,555 185,000 SWOT ANALYSIS STRENGTHS • Location: Site has single family residential neighborhoods in proximity that would serve as a customer base. In addition, there is a senior living community that is to the west with 870 residents. • Retail Sales Volume: Retail sales volume for the trade area (5 mile radius) is $4.8 billion. WEAKNESSES • Concentration/Sector Risk: The financial performance of the firm is subject to the risk that should the Project not generate revenues sufficient to meet operating expenses--debt service, and capital expenditures. Specific examples that could affect the owner include but are not limited to the following: _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Azalea Commons Page 5 of 63 ______________________________________________________________________________ 1. Local real estate market conditions, such as oversupply or reduction in demand for office industrial, retail or residential; and 2. Downturns in the national, regional and local economic climate; 3. Competition from other warehouse/flex properties; 4. Local real estate market conditions, such as oversupply or reduction in demand for retail properties; and 5. Vacancies, changes in market rental rates, and the need to perform capital improvements. OPPORTUNITIES Real Estate development cannot create demand or generate new business—it must attract customers from existing business within or beyond the trade area that are not meeting market expectations; fulfill a demand that has not been met within the market area; or capture the increase in purchasing power that results from employment, or income growth. The market/trade area analysis indicates that retail sales are leaking to other areas of the county and that the site would serve City residents that live in proximity to the proposed development. THREATS • Adverse effects from the tenant's financial insolvency: The bankruptcy or insolvency of the tenant may adversely affect the income produced by the property should the tenant file bankruptcy protection, the company could suffer a shortfall and thus could adversely affect cash flow. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Azalea Commons Page 6 of 63 ______________________________________________________________________________ SITE LOCATION The City of Richmond is located in the eastern-central part of the state of Virginia on the James River-Latitude 37 degrees 54’ N and Longitude 77 degrees 46’W. The City is 100 miles from the nation’s capital. From its Central East Coast location, Richmond is within 750 miles of 151,696,000 people and 301,000 manufacturing firms. Nearly 60 percent of the nation’s total personal income and consumer expenditures are within 750 miles of Central Virginia. (Source: The Logistics & Supply Chain Forum). LOCATION Site is located between I-95 between Westbrook Avenue (Exit 80) and U. S. Route 1 (Exit 81), Richmond, Virginia Proposed Site The site is surrounded by some of the city’s most densely populated areas. The site is uniquely positioned to service the vastly underserved and established neighborhoods of Northern Richmond including Ginter Park, Sherwood Park, and Bellevue. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Azalea Commons Page 7 of 63 ______________________________________________________________________________ DIRECTIONS TO SITE: • From Northern Virginia (From 95/395/495): Take 95 south to Richmond. Take the Chamberlyne Avenue (US 301) Exit 82. Stay straight to go onto Chamberlayne (US 301) South; Turn right (west) onto Azalea Avenue; Turn left onto Brook Road. • From Richmond International Airport: Turn slight right onto South Airport Drive; Merge onto I-64 West toward Richmond.; Merge onto I-95 North; Take exit 81 toward US-1; Turn slight right onto Wilmer Avenue; Turn left onto Brook Road US-1; Continue to follow Brook Road for ~0.3 miles; end at 4900 Brook Road. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Azalea Commons Page 8 of 63 ______________________________________________________________________________ MACRO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS NATIONAL ECONOMY ECONOMIC INDICATORS The U.S. economy is slowing but not in a recession. The 2006 2007 2008F Coincident Economic Index GDP Growth-National 2.80% 2.20% 1.50% of the Conference Board CPI Growth-National 3.20% 2.80% 2.50% Leading Economic Indicators, Unemployment-Regional 3.20% 3.10% 3.20% the best measure of where we Employment Growth Regional 1.70% 1.40% 1.00% are, rose by 0.1 percent in December 2007 and thus the economy was not in recession at year
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