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Home , Artemis Accords, Military satellite, Tianzhou (spacecraft)

2 8 F E B R U A R Y 2 0 2 1 THE FINAL FRONTIER FLASH

Developments & Analysis of the Space Domain

In This Issue

Russia preparing to sign MOU with

Chinese passes key review

Op Ed: How became the prize for China

Russia inadvertently reveals

The Month of Mars!

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All hyperlinks are underlined #WeKnowISR Russia preparing to sign MOU with China

17 Feb: Russia is preparing to sign a memorandum of understanding with China to cooperate on a vision for an international lunar research station. - “The date to sign the MoU has not been determined yet and is currently discussed with the Chinese partners,” said. An Order of the Government of the Russian Federation relating to the move was published online Feb. 11. - The project appears to consist of Chinese, Russian and potentially other nations contributing their own, discrete . - The International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) is believed to be a Chinese- developed vision for a robotic base at the lunar south pole. The first steps will be the upcoming Chang’e-,6, -7 and -8 missions and international missions such as Russia’s Luna 27.

This MoU fits a larger trend of Russia moving into a closer with China. This more formal agreement builds on existing cooperation in material science, data sharing, purchase agreements and lunar exploration. Russia has opted to not sign the with the US and had expressed concerns that Artemis was too “U.S.-centric.” Experts expect more and more space and lunar cooperation between Russia and China if the “United State continues its space policies and practices without any change.” Watch a related podcast here.

Chinese space station passes key review

18 Feb: The core module (Tianhe) for China's planned space station passed a flight acceptance review. The LM-5 that will carry Tianhe arrived at Qinglan harbor in early Feb. - China has not announced a timeframe for the mission. However previous -series launch campaigns have lasted around two months, indicating the launch from Wenchang can be expected around mid-to-late April. See video of China’s space station ambitions here. - The core module, named Tianhe ("Harmony of the Heavens"), will be the main living quarters for crews of three up to six months at a time. - Tianhe will provide power and propulsion for the whole space station. It also features a docking hub that will allow two later experiment modules to join.

China is planning 11 missions across 2021 and 2022 to complete the space station complex, including three module launches, four Tianzhou cargo ship missions and four crewed missions. The completed outpost is expected to be about one-fifth the mass of the International Space Station, a project from which China was barred by the . Op Ed: How Mars became the prize for China

17 Feb: Op-Ed by Steffi Paladini, “How Mars became the prize for a new —and why China is hellbent on winning it.” - China is aiming to win the new space race. China is the only country to land on the in about 40 years, becoming the first to soft land on its far side, as well planted a flag on lunar soil and brought samples back to Earth. - China is not only racing the US, but India as well. India is China’s direct competitor not only in space but on Earth. - In 2014 the Indian Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM), successfully reached Mars and is the first to make it at its maiden mission. - India’s success is one reason why Tianwen-1 is so important for China’s status as a new space power: it’s a way to reassert its space dominance over its neighbor. Unlike India, Tianwen-1 is not the first time China attempted a mission to Mars - the prior one, Yinghuo-1 (2011), failed on launch. - The development effort behind China's space sector is largely government funded and military led. - India has taken a different approach, where civilian/commercial interests have been predominant.

China considers space as a "tool of geopolitical and diplomatic competition." It is clear that, together with cyberspace, the cosmos has become a fundamental new warfighting domain, where the US are the main — but not the only — adversary.

Russia inadvertently reveals military satellites

22 Jun 2017: Russia inadvertently reveals Repei-S and Repei-V military satellites - On June 6, 2017 Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu visited the ISS Reshetnev factory near Krasnoyarsk. - A Russian MoD photo appears to confirm existence of previously unknown Russian . - The ‘Repei-S’ and ‘Repei-V’ that will fly in geostationary or highly elliptical …the name Repei had not previously been associated with any Russian satellite project known in open sources. - The picture showing the Repei board was unavailable on the MoD’s website…the photograph could have been removed from the ministry’s website once it became clear that it unintentionally identified the Repei satellite. - There has been no confirmation of Russia launching the satellites. (Continued on the next page) - The Repei mission remains unconfirmed, but there are two primary possibilities: 1) Military communications satellites. ISS Reshetnev is known to be working on next-generation military COMSATs to be deployed into highly elliptical orbits and geostationary orbits. 2) Repei-S and Repei-V may be SIGINT satellites destined for geostationary and highly elliptical orbits. This would represent an expansion of Russia’s intelligence collection capabilities in an area where Moscow’s capabilities lag behind China and the US. - If fulfilling a SIGINT mission, the Repei satellites would join the /Olimp-K which was launched in 2014. Reports indicate Luch/Olimp-K serves in a dual role: (1) electronic intelligence (ELINT), and (2) providing secure communications for government use.

The release of the photograph could represent a deliberate leak, similar to the apparently intentional leak of supposedly classified information on the development of a nuclear torpedo, the Status-6, on Russian state television in Nov 2015. However, it has so far received far less prominence in Russian media than the Status-6 leak. In addition, the photograph’s absence from the ministry’s website would support the assessment that the leak was genuinely accidental.

Fun Fact: In 1963 Aerojet provided initial designs for the Sea Dragon sea-launched rocket, the largest rocket ever proposed. Sea Dragon would be a two-stage rocket with only one engine in each stage and stood a staggering 400 feet with a diameter of 75 feet at its widest point. It was heavy, weighing in at about 40 million pounds. Sea Dragon could lift 1.1 million pounds to LEO. It was also designed to be almost entirely reused in an effort to keep launch costs down. There were even plans to support refueling…the basic payload was imagined as an aluminum tank containing more than a million pounds of LH2 for orbital refueling. Alas, Sea Dragon never flew. It was ultimately a concept study that didn’t have a place the 1960s landscape. NASA was dominating the space game with support from the military and its focus was firmly on getting to the Moon, not a rocket that could make routine without immediate lunar applications. However, this did not stop people from creating an amazingly cool video of a Sea Dragon launch.

How it started

How it's roving