Long Term Planning Process Welsh Route Study March 2016 Contents March 2016 Network Rail – Welsh Route Study 02 Foreword 03 Executive summary 04 Chapter 1 – Strategic Planning Process 06 Chapter 2 – The starting point for the Welsh Route Study 10 Chapter 3 - Consultation responses 17 Chapter 4 – Future demand for rail services - capacity and connectivity 22 Chapter 5 – Conditional Outputs - future capacity and connectivity 29 Chapter 6 – Choices for funders to 2024 49 Chapter 7 – Longer term strategy to 2043 69 Appendix A – Appraisal Results 109 Appendix B – Mapping of choices for funders to Conditional Outputs 124 Appendix C – Stakeholder aspirations 127 Appendix D – Rolling Stock characteristics 140 Appendix E – Interoperability requirements 141 Glossary 145 Foreword March 2016 Network Rail – Welsh Route Study 03 We are delighted to present this Route Study which sets out the The opportunity for the Digital Railway to address capacity strategic vision for the railway in Wales between 2019 and 2043. constraints and to improve customer experience is central to the planning approach we have adopted. It is an evidence based study that considers demand entirely within the Wales Route and also between Wales and other parts of Great This Route Study has been developed collaboratively with the Britain. railway industry, with funders and with stakeholders. We would like to thank all those involved in the exercise, which has been extensive, The railway in Wales has seen a decade of unprecedented growth, and which reflects the high level of interest in the railway in Wales. with almost 50 per cent more passenger journeys made to, from We are also grateful to the people and the organisations who took and within Wales since 2006, and our forecasts suggest that the time to respond to the Draft for Consultation published in passenger growth levels will continue to be strong during the next March 2015. Details on how the consultation responses have three decades, particularly in the south east of Wales and in the informed the final strategy are set out in Chapter 3. north east of Wales. Demand for rail freight is expected to change to reflect global market conditions, which is likely to see a decline in the volumes of coal and steel traffic in Wales, and continued growth in intermodal container traffic. Every day the railway supports economic growth, reduces the environmental impact of the transport sector and improves the quality of life for people and for communities. Wales relies on a safe and punctual railway and this Study sets out the industry’s plan to meet future demand so that the railway continues to make a Jo Kaye Paul McMahon positive difference to the economy, to the environment and to people’s lives. This is the purpose of the railway and now is the right Director of Network Strategy Route Managing Director, time to set out the future strategy. and Capacity Planning Wales Reducing long term subsidy and delivering value to taxpayers and funders are key considerations in this Route Study. The solutions have been developed with the intention of optimising existing capacity first as this is the most efficient approach. Where this is not possible, the solutions are based on enhancing the capacity or capability of the infrastructure so that more services can operate on the network. These solutions are presented as choices for the industry’s funders to consider. We believe they are ambitious yet realistic and they reflect what can be done in a logical and sequential approach in the immediate future and during the longer term period up to 2043. This will build on the significant ongoing investment in modernising the rail network in Wales which has included major asset renewals and enhancement of the network such as the planned electrification of the South Wales Main Line and associated new electric rolling stock. Executive Summary March 2016 Network Rail – Welsh Route Study 04 Highlights Introduction Choices for Funders This Route Study is a key part of the rail industry’s More and more people are using the railway in Wales and the border This Route Study then explains the choices that exist to Long Term Planning Process (LTPP). counties, and demand will continue to grow strongly in the future. accommodate these conditional outputs. These are referred to as Choices for Funders and typically require investment in more trains, Every year, millions of tons of freight are transported by rail and more services and / or more capacity in the rail infrastructure. The there will be growth in new markets. It sets out proposals and choices for funders for Choices for Funders for Control Period 6 are summarised in Table 1. The railway will continue to support economic growth, the creation the period up to 2023 and 2043. The Digital Railway of jobs and the development of sustainable communities. The Digital Railway is a rail industry-wide programme designed to This Route Study sets out a plan for a railway that is fit for the future benefit Great Britain’s economy by accelerating the digital - a railway that is at the heart of the economy. enablement of the railway. The programme is integrating digital It sets out choices for the funders of the railway to sustain economic modernisation of the railway with industry planning and spans growth and sustainable communities. These choices would mean technology, business change and commercial innovation offering a more seats for passengers, more frequent services, faster journeys, more cost-effective and higher-performing railway that delivers a improved connectivity and more journey opportunities, and bigger economic benefit. accommodating changes in demand for freight services. The digital modernisation of the railway is one part of the package Economic Context for delivering a sustainable and growing railway meeting passengers’ and freight customers’ needs. As part of a package of The economy of Wales and the bordering regions relies on a safe, measures the Digital Railway is a vital enabler for long-term growth punctual and efficient railway. Railways connect people to because it releases latent capacity in the GB rail infrastructure to employment opportunities and transport goods to the marketplace. support the economy. They are fundamental to our economy and to our lives. In most areas, work to develop technical capability is underway. The There has been strong growth in demand for rail in the last 10 years programme will seek to determine what is required to align and with almost 50% more journeys to, from and within Wales. This accelerate different initiatives to bring them into a single road map growth is set to continue and the railway will need more investment underwritten by the whole industry. The output of the programme so that it can accommodate more people and more passenger and will be a business case to Government, presented through the IIP in freight services. September 2016. Planning Approach This Route Study has assessed the capacity benefits that the Digital The Welsh Route Study is a key part of the rail industry’s strategic Railway can provide in future years. planning process for the future. It assesses how demand for rail will grow in response to changes in the economy, with strong growth forecast in the commuter and business markets. It also sets out the outputs that the railway will need to deliver for passengers and freight customers, for example more seats or shorter journey times, and these are conditional based upon their affordability and value for money. These are referred to as Conditional Outputs. Executive Summary March 2016 Network Rail – Welsh Route Study 05 Longer Term Strategy While the initial focus is on the immediate choices for funders for CO6, the Route Study also sets out a strategic vision for the next 30 years. This is really the start of a conversation for the industry and funders about the identification and subsequent development of future priorities for sustaining economic growth, job creation and well connected communities. Table 1: Choices for funders in CP6 No Choices for funders in CP6 Outputs 1 More passenger capacity on the Valley Lines - operating more frequent trains and/or longer More seats for passengers & more services trains. 2 Phased programme of enhancements on Valley Lines - linked to Metro. More frequent services and faster journey times 3 Upgrading Relief Lines between Cardiff and Severn Tunnel Junction to improve capacity More services and faster journey times and connectivity. 4 Redevelopment of Cardiff Central Station to create a station fit for a capital city. A better customer experience with more space and more services 5 Programme of level crossing closures in West Wales. Public safety and faster journey times 6 Continuation of additional peak services on the Heart of Wales Line, and further improved More services and faster journey times generalised journey times. 7 Selected train lengthening on Cardiff to Manchester services. More seats for passengers 8 Modernisation of the North Wales Coast Main Line. More services and faster journey times 9 Improved line speeds on the North Wales Coast Main Line. Faster journey times 10 Improved connectivity to Deeside. More services with better connections between trains & buses 11 Further programme of capacity improvements between Chester and Wrexham. More services and faster journey times 12 Improved line speeds between Wrexham and Bidston. Faster journey times 13 Improved all day frequency on the Cambrian Main Line. More services 14 Improved frequency on the Ebbw Vale Line with connectivity to Newport and Abertillery. More services to new destinations and new line opening 01: Strategic Planning March 2016 Network Rail – Welsh Route Study 06 Process Highlights: 1.0 Context This Route Study has been completed through collaboration with the rail industry, funders in UK Government and Welsh Government This Route Study sets out the future direction for The railway in Britain has seen a decade of unprecedented growth and, critically, with stakeholders within Wales and those in the and this is set to continue.