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Gas Market Liberalization As a Key Driver of Change of the European Gas Market and Its Influence on the Strategies of the Main Players

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Gas Market Liberalization As a Key Driver of Change of the European Gas Market and Its Influence on the Strategies of the Main Players CENTRE INTERNATIONAL DE FORMATION EUROPEENNE INSTITUT EUROPEEN DES HAUTES ETUDES INTERNATIONALES DIPLOME DES HAUTES ÉTUDES EUROPÉENNES ET INTERNATIONALES (D.H.E.E.I.) Trilingual Branch Gas market liberalization as a key driver of change of the European gas market and its influence on the strategies of the main players Master Thesis presented by: Roman Zyuzev Under the direction of: Nizar Ben Ayed, PhD Director DHEEI in charge of Anglophone branch Nice, May 2008 II Table of contents TABLE OF CONTENTS................................................................................................................................. II ABBREVIATIONS.........................................................................................................................................IV LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................................................... V 1. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 PROBLEM FORM ULATION................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 OBJECTIVE AND STRUCTURE OF THE PAPER ................................................................................... 3 1.3 USEFUL THEORETICAL APPROACHES AND M ETHODS FOR UNDERSTANDING AND ANALYZING THE EUROPEAN GAS M ARKET AND STRATEGIES OF ITS PLAYERS ....................................................................... 6 2. EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS M ARKET............................................................................................. 9 2.1 BASIC FACTS ABOUT NATURAL GAS ................................................................................................. 9 2.2 NATURAL GAS DEM AND IN EU ....................................................................................................... 11 2.3 NATURAL GAS RESERVES ............................................................................................................... 15 2.4 PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY IN EU................................................................................................... 16 2.5 INVESTM ENT ................................................................................................................................... 18 2.6 THE INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE EUROPEAN GAS M ARKET ............................................ 19 2.6.1 The two-level European gas market............................................................................................ 19 2.6.2 Vertical relations between production and wholesale................................................................ 22 2.6.3 Vertical integration between wholesale and retail supply.......................................................... 24 3. KEY DRIVERS OF CHANGE ON THE EUROPEAN GAS M ARKET.......................................... 24 3.1 INCREASING DEM AND FOR NATURAL GAS...................................................................................... 25 3.1.1 Gas demand in long-term............................................................................................................ 26 3.1.2 Emerging of new technologies influencing gas demand............................................................. 28 3.2 INCREASING IM PORT DEPENDENCY ............................................................................................... 29 3.2.1 Security of gas supply in European Union.................................................................................. 31 3.2.2 Diversification of supply sources, transport routes and Liquefied natural gas.......................... 33 3.3 GAS M ARKET LIBERALIZATION ..................................................................................................... 35 3.3.1 Process of transformation of the national gas markets............................................................... 38 3.3.2 The effects of the liberalization on the market............................................................................ 40 4. STRATEGIES OF THE EUROPEAN GAS M ARKET PLAYERS.................................................. 43 4.1 THE M AJOR PLAYERS: THEIR STRUCTURES, AIM S AND IM PORTANCE .......................................... 44 III 4.1.1 Key traditional suppliers to Europe............................................................................................ 44 4.1.2 Main actors on the European internal gas market..................................................................... 48 4.1.2.1 Natural gas reserves by company......................................................................................................48 4.1.2.2 Natural gas production by company..................................................................................................49 4.1.2.3 European gas supply by company......................................................................................................50 4.2 STRATEGIES OF THE PLAYERS ....................................................................................................... 51 4.2.1 Commercial and Partnership strategies..................................................................................... 52 4.2.2 Mergers and Acquisitions........................................................................................................... 60 4.2.3 Identification of current trends in the EU energy sector............................................................. 65 4.2.3.1 Integration between gas suppliers and electricity producers.............................................................65 4.2.3.2 Building national champions.............................................................................................................69 4.2.3.3 Reorganization in the downstream gas sector and emerging new players........................................71 5. THIRD ENERGY PACKAGE ON LIBERALIZATION AND POSSIBILITIES OF INFLUENCING THE EU LEGISLATION.................................................................................................. 75 5.1 WHAT IS LOBBYING?...................................................................................................................... 75 5.2 THE ACTORS ................................................................................................................................... 77 5.3 THE TARGETS................................................................................................................................. 79 5.3.1 The European Commission......................................................................................................... 80 5.3.2 The European Parliament........................................................................................................... 81 5.3.3 The Council of Ministers............................................................................................................. 82 5.4 THIRD ENERGY PACKAGE............................................................................................................... 83 5.4.1 Controversial issues of the 3rd energy package........................................................................... 84 5.4.1.1 Ownership unbundling and Independent System Operator................................................................84 5.4.1.2 Long-term supply contracts................................................................................................................84 5.4.1.3 —Gazprom clause“..............................................................................................................................85 5.4.1.4 Gas and electricity: equal treatment or distinction?...........................................................................86 5.4.2 Current development of legislation and targets for lobbying..................................................... 87 5.4.3 Future of the third energy package and possible outcome......................................................... 91 5.4.4 Position papers and arguments of the parties............................................................................. 92 6. CONCLUSION..................................................................................................................................... 100 LIST OF LITERATURE................................................................................................................................VI IV Abbreviations AG Aktiengesellschaft bcm billion cubic meters CCGT Combined-cycle gas turbine CEGH Central European gas hub CERA Cambridge Energy Research Associates EC European Commission EP European Parliament EU European Union Eurogas European Union of Natural Gas Industry IEA International Energy Agency IFP Institute IOC International Oil companies ISO Independent System Operator LNG Liquefied natural gas MOU Memorandum of Understanding NBP National Balancing Point NGCC Natural gas combined cycle NGMR Natural gas market report NOC National Oil companies OU Ownership unbundling TFT Title Transfer Facility TPA Third-party access VI Vertical integration WEO World Energy Outlook V List of figures Figure 2-1: EU-27 Energy mix: growing importance of natural gas...................................12 Figure 2-2: EU-27 Natural gas demand outlook by sector ................................................13 Figure 2-3: EU-27 origins of natural gas...........................................................................17 Figure
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