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Statistical Framework for Water Quality Load Estimation

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Statistical Framework for Water Quality Load Estimation Water Tuftsand University People Environmental Studies Lunch & Learn Richard M. Vogel Oct 20, 2011 Tufts University Medford, MA Outline Tufts University Emerging Issues: Water and People: Some Big Problems Water Supply – Boston Metro Region Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use Outline Tufts University Emerging Issues: Water and People: An Intro to some big problems Water and Health Water Supply – NYC and Boston Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use Water and People: Why do people know so little about water? Tufts University Hydrologic science is an interdisciplinary science which involves the interfaces among earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences. Hydrology is a geoscience Why isn‟t it taught like geology, biology, meteorology, or chemistry? Water Problems are Human Problems Tufts University Global Population Growth 10 8 6 4 2 Population in Billions in Population 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 YEAR (AD) Water Problems Result From Human Influences and they are Ramping Up Tufts University Water and People Tufts University Water Pollution and Water Scarcity Are the two biggest water challenges of the 21st Century Water and People Tufts University Today, 1 out of 6 people, more than a billion Suffer from inadequate access to safe freshwater Tufts University Water and Poverty Tufts University Irrigation can lift rural poor out of poverty Tufts University Average income levels & irrigation intensity in India Income per capita Income From U. Lall, Columbia Univ Outline Tufts University Emerging Issues: Water and People Water Supply – Boston Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use Wet History of Boston Tufts University 1630 – Boston Settled, water supply from spring near Boston Common US Cities Devoted Huge A RealResources Celebration! to Clean Water Tufts University When water from Lake Cochituate flowed into the Frog Pond on Boston Common in 1848, the dedication ceremony drew 100,000 people and was declared a public holiday Panoramic View of Ruins of Bostons Great Fire of 1872 Tufts University Brought fire steamers to Boston from Portsmouth, N.H. And Led to Wachusett/Quabbin Reservoir System The Mystic Lakes System •• In By 1870 1870, the Mystic Boston’s population soared to Lakes200,000 System in Winchester, Medford and Arlington was added to the Boston System Addition of Mystic Lakes System In 1870, the Mystic Lakes system was connected to distribution system at Tufts University. Old reservoir on Tufts hill, lined with brick. Old bricks used to construct Bray Hall on Boston Ave using student labor. West Hall Gate House on Dorm in 1890 Reservoir Mystic Reservoir at Tufts College Reservoir and Gatehouse At Tufts, 1898. Reservoir was called the REZ Mystic Reservoir at Tufts College Ballou West Hall Hall Built Dorm 1850 Built in 1871 Mystic Reservoir at Tufts College Parking Lot Which Replaced the REZ Pumphouse at Chestnut Hill Tufts University Water Sources in 1895, Lake Cochituate, Sudbury Reservoirs, Mystic Lakes Growth in Metro Boston Water Supply System Tufts University 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1848 1870 1872 1908 1946 System Yield in Yield System 0 Millions of Gallons per Day per ofGallons Millions Mystic Lakes Lake Cochituate Sudbury System Quabbin Reservoir Wachusett Reservoir Growth in Water Supply System Tufts University Tufts University NYC Water Supply System Today 4 towns removed and legally dissolved 39 square miles flooded Quabbin Reservoir 2,000 residents relocated You Couldn’t Do 1,000 buildings destroyed It Today 34 cemeteries relocated 81,000 acres purchased for $9.6 million $53 million total project costs 26 lives lost during construction Original Towns Eliminated by Quabbin Moving Homes to Build Quabbin Town Hall from Enfield still stands, but town is now gone Old Cemeteries had to be moved Quabbin Park Cemetery 1 Tufts University Quabbin Park Cemetery First water released from Winsor Dam Early Projections of Water Demand Were Upward Biased Tufts University 1895 Projections Led to Evaluation of Alternatives Tufts University Demand Exceeds “Safe” Yield in 1969 Again 1985 Projections Leads to History of Supply and Demand Future Studies Tufts University Water Supply Study Commissioned in 1985 to Evaluate Alternatives to Increase Yield Again, History repeats itself Demand Management, Conservation and Leak Repair Worked! Demand was reduced from: 336 in 1987 to 256 mgd in 1997 MWRA Annual Average System Demand 350 300 250 MGD 200 150 100 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Outline Tufts University Emerging Issues: Water and People Water Supply – NYC and Boston Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use Water and Urbanization Tufts University Increased U.S. Flood damages Are increased 1932-1997 adjusted to 1995 dollars damages due to: Climate Change? Urbanization? Agriculture? All three? Tufts University A Probability Report We live in a watershed and we are part of the problem Tufts University Land Management is Water Management Urbanization Increases Flows in Rivers and Streams Tufts University Aberjona River, Massachusetts 24 sq. mi. urban watershed near Tufts Tufts University Like Clockwork, and Like Urbanization, Annual Maximum Flood Discharges are steadily increasing Tufts University 1940-2009 It is not only floods on Aberjona River which are influenced by urbanization. Tufts University 1000 ALL 100 Flows Increased 10 1940s-1950s 1 1960s-1970s Daily Streamflow (cfs) Daily 1980s-1990s 0.1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Exceedance Probability One Partial Remedy: Low Impact Development Tufts University No curbs Bioretention No pipes No manholes Mimics Nature How can we make residential developments function hydrologically like natural systems? Tufts University High Impact Development Tufts University •Removal of trees vegetation •Soil erosion •Impervious areas •Result: Stormwater pipes and detention pond Tufts University FEATURES OF A NATURAL CHANNEL STREAM-SIDE VEGETATION STREAM CHANNEL - FLOODPLAIN BANKFULL CHANNEL LOW FLOW CHANNEL RIPARIAN WETLAND BEDROCK INSTREAM CHANNEL THALWEG DIVERSITY RIFFLE - POOL SYSTEM Point Bar Riffle Pool STEELHEAD TROUT – EGGS AND ALEVINS Source: Richard T. Grost, Fisheries cover photo January 2001 CONCRETE LINED TRAPEZOIDAL FLOOD CONTROL CHANNEL TROUT BROOK- WEST HARTFORD, CT Floodplain No Instream Habitat Value Bankfull Width Low Flow Channel VEGETATION LINED FLOOD CONTROL CHANNEL TROUT BROOK- WEST HARTFORD, CT Vegetative Instream Habitat & Cover Low Flow Channel Designed by: James MacBroom Hydrology - The study of precipitation, Ecology - The study of plants, animals, infiltration, surface runoff, streamflow rates, and their environment, with emphasis on water storage in wetlands, detention basins, aquatic systems, wetlands, and riparian and reservoirs, plus water use and diversions. forests.. HydraulicsTufts- The studyUniversity of the stream’s Water Quality - The study of the water velocity, flow depth, flood elevations, physical, biological, and chemical channel erosion, storm drains, culverts, characteristics of surface waters and bridges, and dams. groundwaters. Engineering – The application of science and mathematics Fluvial Morphology - The study in analysis, design, and permitting. of the channel’s geologic origin, alignment, slope, shape, size, sediments, and floodplains. Socioeconomic - The study of the Construction – sociology, social relationships, economic The application of the design. impacts, and their interconnections. Outline Tufts University Emerging Issues: Water and People Water Supply – NYC and Boston Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use Projections of Global Surface Warming Tufts University Water and Climate Tufts University Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere “Today the time for doubt has passed. The IPCC has unequivocally affirmed the warming of our climate system, and linked it directly to human activity.” (UN Secretary General, November 2007) Tufts University From IPCC Nov 2007 Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures? Tufts University The answer is generally yes. A Gallop Poll Shrinking of Arctic Sea Ice (from Epstein , 2008) Tufts University Extent of Ice Cover (millions of sq. mi) 1978 Year 2008 Glacial Melt – Reduction in Long Term water storage and fluxes Tufts University Examples of human-induced climate change are now apparent on every continent Tufts University NASA USGS NASA UK.gov National Park Service Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change Tufts University Jerry and Marcy Monkman Wetland Inundation and Loss Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change Tufts University -More coastal erosion Dr. Norbert Psuty Brandt Beach Long Beach Island, NJ Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change Tufts University Higher sea levels and more frequent flooding Winthrop, MA AP Photo/Michael Dwyer Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under theCoastal Higher-Emissions Flooding in Boston Scenario under Present and High Emission Sea Levels Tufts University Source: NECIA/UCS 2007 Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario Tufts University Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/) New York City : Today‟s 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years under the High-Emissions Scenarios Tufts University Credit:: Applied Science Associates,
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