2016
2017 edition will be available no later than 10 March 2017
IR Corporate presentation Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer The Carlsberg Group
No. 4 largest international brewer 140 beer brands No. 1 in Eastern Europe No. 2 in Western Europe 120.3 m.hl. of beer sold in 2015 7.5bn Free cash flow (DKK) in 2015
3 Group ownership structure
Carlsberg Free Foundation float
30% of capital 70% of capital 75% of votes 25% of votes
Carlsberg A/S Listed on Nasdaq OMX Copenhagen
100%
Carlsberg Breweries A/S
Operating companies
4 Founded in 1847 on a passion for beer, science and art
1847 JC Jacobsen founds the Carlsberg Brewery on a hill outside of Copenhagen
1868 Carlsberg has international ambitions from the beginning and exports its first barrel of beer to Scotland JC Jacobsen has great ambitions for his brewery and to make sure his beer is brewed to the highest scientific standards he establishes the in 1868 Carlsberg Laboratory.
1882 JC’s son Carl Jacobsen builds his own brewery next to his father’s and calls it ”New Carlsberg”.
1904 The famous Carlsberg logo is designed by architect Thorvald Bindesbøll. This logo Carl Jacobsen has a great passion for art and architecture and creates is still used today. many spectacular buildings for his brewery. One of these is the impressive Elephant Gate welcoming visitors to his brewery.
5 Three regions
Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Group
2015 % of total beer volume 42 27 31
2015 % of EBIT 53 19 28
6 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer SAIL‘22 - OUR AMBITION GUIDES US
…brewer in our markets
SUCCESSFUL PROFESSIONAL ATTRACTIVE Driving sustainable Excel with our customers in Delivering value for our top- and bottom-line insights, management and shareholders, employees growth service and society KPI KPI KPI Market share Customer satisfaction Operating profit Gross profit after logistics % scores ROIC Operating profit Free cash flow SAIL‘22 - SETTING SAIL WITH OUR FOUR PRIORITIES
STRENGTHEN CORE
POSITION FOR GROWTH
CREATE A WINNING CULTURE
DELIVER VALUE FOR SHAREHOLDERS SAIL‘22 - CLEAR PRIORITIES TO DELIVER SHAREHOLDER VALUE
STRENGTHEN POSITION FOR DELIVER VALUE THE CORE GROWTH FOR SHAREHOLDERS
Leverage Win in growing Organic growth in our strongholds categories operating profit
Excel Target ROIC in execution big cities improvement
Funding Grow Optimal the Journey in Asia capital allocation
CREATE A WINNING CULTURE SAIL’22: STRENGTHEN CORE - Leverage our strongholds
REVITALIZE CORE BEER “We will leverage our strong beer brands and market positions to drive growth”
WHY Decline in beer consumption 82% of Carlsberg Group net sales as markets become come from local and international economically mature beer brands (core beer) HOW • Deliver streamlined portfolios of local and international beer brands • Improve and constantly renovate brand fundamentals on core brands (pack, taste, communication) • Increase consumer facing investment behind key brands • Improve OBPPC (occasion, brand, price, pack and channel) processes to drive value creation SAIL’22: STRENGTHEN CORE - Leverage our strongholds
TRANSFORM OUR BUSINESS IN RUSSIA “Russia remains an important market and we understand what it takes to succeed”
WHY Eastern Europe has been and remains an important contributor to earnings
HOW • Fully leverage unique national brewery footprint and route-to- market set-up • Optimise efficiency of supply chain • Deliver a full portfolio of national leading brands, supplemented by strong regional offerings • Capitalize on and drive category in growing modern trade SAIL’22: STRENGTHEN CORE
EXCEL IN EXECUTION “Strengthening strongholds and going for growth requires superior capabilities that will allow us to excel in execution” WHY In the beer category, quality, impact and efficiency of execution are key to success
HOW • Change our portfolio approach to be more consumer occasion and benefit driven • Manage complexity smartly • Excel in execution at the point of purchase • Step change our digital agenda to connect with consumers and customers more efficiently • Foster consumer-driven R&D SAIL’22: STRENGTHEN CORE
FUNDING THE JOURNEY “Funding the Journey will improve cost and efficiency across our total business and provide funding for our strategy” WHY Bringing together all profit improvement initiatives in one single programme ensures a sharper focus and fast and impactful delivery
HOW • Focus on value management to achieve optimal balance between volume market share, gross profit after logistics margin and operating profit • Focus on supply chain efficiency to reduce material, production and logistics costs • Focus on operating expense efficiency to achieve more efficient marketing and reduce sales and administration costs • Net benefits by 2018 of DKK 1.5-2.0bn of which 50%. As generated, ~50% to be reinvested in our strategic choices and 50% to improve earnings SAIL’22: POSITION FOR GROWTH - Win in growing categories
BUILD CRAFT AND SPECIALITY “We will actively shape the Craft and Speciality category, offering portfolios that win with consumers and customers” WHY 15% higher annual Craft beer share Gross profit/hl for craft volume growth increasing in Western craft exceeding beer vs. non-craft Europe average
HOW • A global portfolio of craft and speciality • Speciality brands such as Grimbergen • Authentic brands such as Jacobsen and Nya Carnegie • Accessible “crafty” line extensions on core brands such as Brewmasters Collection • Develop relevant capabilities in R&D, brewing and commercial • Support customers to grow the category • Already proven successes in Scandinavia SAIL’22: POSITION FOR GROWTH - Win in growing categories
ACTIVELY SHAPE NAB “We will leverage growing health and wellness trends and our R&D capabilities to drive growth in non-alcohol” WHY 68% of consumers 3x higher growth of Gross profit/hl for aged 24-45 make non-alcoholic NAB exceeding beer conscious attempts to beverages vs average average consume healthily beer market
HOW • Drive non-alcoholic beer (NAB) as a category through both line extensions and stand-alone brands • Invest heavily in technological advantages to overcome taste barriers and offer healthier alternatives to consumers • Building on successes such as Tourtel and Carlsberg Nordic SAIL’22: POSITION FOR GROWTH
TARGET BIG CITIES “Urbanisation trends provide new opportunities for us to generate incremental premium business” WHY 70% live in cities by 2050 vs. 30 out of top 50 cities in 55% today; 30% higher urban the world without Carlsberg beer consumption compared to presence today avg. market HOW • Penetrating cities in existing geographies where no presence today • Enter attractive cities in new geographies • Asset-light model • Build positions in high margin categories and segments • Proven business model through our Export & License unit with Toronto as an example SAIL’22: POSITION FOR GROWTH
GROW IN ASIA “We are well-placed to capture the premium category growth in Asia and will invest accordingly”
WHY Asia accounts for almost 40% of Asia accounts for 28% of Group profits the world beer consumption. but only 8% of operating profit generated in China, India and Vietnam, partly due to subscale positions
HOW • Strengthen current # 1 and 2 positions • Portfolio development to accelerate premiumisation • In the growth markets of Laos, Cambodia, Nepal • In the mature markets of Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong • Further build our position in China, India and Vietnam • Delivering a portfolio of brands • Increasing focus on international premium brands • Expansion in channels and geographies SAIL’22: CREATE A WINNING CULTURE
CREATE A WINNING CULTURE “We will create a winning culture based on a team-based and high-performance approach and accountability” WHY To deliver on our choices we will build an engaging and winning culture with clear roles and accountability
HOW • Foster a strong team-based performance culture based on the principle of Alignment, Accountability, Action • Rigorous monthly reviews on business performance, realisation of Funding the Journey benefits and SAIL’22 priorities • Encourage and incentivise high-performance behaviour • Short-term and long-term incentive schemes clearly linked to financial targets and delivery of Funding the Journey benefits SAIL’22: DELIVER VALUE FOR SHAREHOLDERS
ORGANIC GROWTH IN OPERATING PROFIT “Consistent profit growth is an important priority and will be achieved by the right balance of top- line and margin focus” WHY Improving organic operating profit is a confirmation of our ability to deliver growth and margin improvement
HOW Operating profit • Driving top-line growth • Applying the right balance between volume market share, gross profit after logistics margin and operating profit • Full delivery of Funding the Journey benefits '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '22
Graph for illustrative purposes only SAIL’22: DELIVER VALUE FOR SHAREHOLDERS
IMPROVEMENT IN ROIC “We will improve ROIC consistently, not only by improving earnings but also by reducing invested capital” WHY To drive a positive development in shareholder returns, we must improve the return on invested capital
HOW • Sweating fixed assets and financial Return on invested capital discipline when investing • Continuing the strong trajectory of optimising working capital • Delivering high cash conversion '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '22
Graph for illustrative purposes only SAIL’22: DELIVER VALUE FOR SHAREHOLDERS
OPTIMISING CAPITAL ALLOCATION “We will invest in profitable growth, and then reduce leverage and return more cash to shareholders”
WHY Our first priority is to invest in to our business to drive profitable growth.
HOW • Investing in initiatives that • Capital allocation targets1 drive profitable growth 1. NIBD/EBITDA < 2.0x • Initiatives to strengthen 2. Dividend pay-out ratio of 50% core • Excess cash to be redistributed • Growth opportunities through buy-backs and/or • Capabilities extraordinary dividends • Deviating from the above only if value-enhancing acquisition opportunities arise
1 In prioritised order Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer A strong portfolio of brands
24 Our international brands
Kronenburg 1664 The world-famous French beer Tuborg Grimbergen and long-standing favourite of Tuborg is a success story of a Our super-premium Belgian beer connoisseurs. Sold in brand. It is connected with abbey ale dating back to 1128. more than 65 markets, the young adults’ exploration of The geographic expansion of brand grew by 5% in 2015. life has close ties to music. It is the brand is ongoing, currently available in more than 70 sold in 38 markets. In 2015, it markets and grew by 15% grew by 15%. in 2015. Somersby Carlsberg Our international cider brand, Carlsberg is our flagship first launched in Denmark in brand, dating back to 1847. It 2008: Today, it is the fastest is available in more than 150 growing international cider markets across the world. The brand. Somersby is available in brand proposition is “Probably 51 markets and grew by 21% in the best …” 2015.
25 Beer is core – but we are present in adjacent categories Leveraging production and distribution capacities
BREWED CIDERS BEVERAGES
BEER
WATER SOFT DRINKS
85% of total volume 2015 OTHERS ENERGY DRINKS 15% of total volume 2015 26 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer Net revenue and operating profit
DKK bn Net revenue DKK bn Operating profit 70 12 66.5 66.6 65.4 63.6 64.5
59.9 59.4 60.1 10.249 60 9.844 10 9.816 9.793 9.390 9.230
8.457 50 7.978 44.8 8 41.1 40 38.0
6 5.262 30
4.046 4 3.518 20
2 10
0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
28 Operating profit and EBITDA margins
EBIT margin EBITDA margin
30% 40%
35% 25%
30%
20% 25%
15% 20%
15% 10%
10%
5% 5%
0% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Carlsberg Group Western Europe Carlsberg Group Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Eastern Europe Asia
29 Reported and adjusted EPS
DKK Adjusted EPS
40 37.8 35.6 36.1 36.0 35 34.1
29.9 30 27.3
25
20
15
10
5
0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
30 Average trade working capital and free cash flow
ATWC/net revenue DKK bn Free operating cash flow 6% 12
10.7
4% 10
2% 8 7.4 7.5
0% 6
4.8 4.2 -2% 4
2.6 2.8 2.1 1.9 -4% 2 1.4
0.1 -6% 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
31 Dividend per share and pay-out ratio
Pay-out DKK ratio 10 35%
9.0 9.0 9 30% 8.0 8
25% 7
6.0 6 5.5 20% 5.0 5 4.8 4.8
4.0 15% 4 3.5 3.5
3 10%
2
5% 1
0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
32 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer 2016 outlook
• Key focus to execute Funding the Journey and start implementing SAIL’22
• 2016 financial expectations – Around 5% organic operating profit growth (previously low single-digit growth) – Financial leverage reduction
• A translation impact on operating profit of around DKK -550m based on spot rates as at 7 November
Carlsberg Group – Q3 trading statement – 9 November 2016 34 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer Western Europe
NORWAY Ringnes • No. 1 • Market share: 55% FRANCE • Breweries: 2 Kronenbourg SWEDEN • No. 1 Carlsberg Sverige FINLAND • Market share: 29% • No. 1 Sinebrychoff • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 34% • No. 1 Market share: 47% • Breweries: 1 • POLAND • Breweries: 1 Carlsberg Polska • No. 3 • Market share: 19% • Breweries: 3
SWITZERLAND UK Feldschlösschen BALTIC STATES • No. 1 Carlsberg UK Saku • Market share: 42% • No. 4 Aldaris • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 14% Svyturys-Utenos Alus • Breweries: 1 • No. 1-2 • Market share: 26-42% • Breweries: 3
DENMARK Carlsberg Danmark • No. 1 • Market share: 55% • Breweries: 1
GERMANY SOUTH EAST EUROPE ITALY Carlsberg Serbia (Northern) Carlsberg Italia Carlsberg Croatia PORTUGAL Carlsberg Deutschland • No. 4 Carlsberg Bulgaria Unicer • No. 1 • Market share: 7% Carlsberg Greece • No. 1 • Market share: 16% • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 47% • Breweries: 2 • No. 2-3 • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 16-27% • Breweries: 5
36 Western Europe – Region characteristics
• Mature markets with strong tradition of beer consumption in many markets • Well-established retail structures – Shift from on-trade to off-trade • Flat to slightly declining markets. However, in recent years, beer category dynamics have improved slightly driven by – Innovations – Specialty/craft beers – Improved category perception • Market value growth • Front-end initiatives include – Value management – In-store execution – Driving international and local premium brands • Efficiency initiatives include – On-going simplification – Standardisation – Centralisation throughout the value chain
37 Western Europe – 2015 headlines
• Flat beer markets – Market share growth in majority of markets • Beer volumes flat organically – Strong performance in France, Norway, Italy and SE Europe • Net revenue flat organically – Price/mix flat in spite of difficult environment; improvement in Q4 • Slight organic decline in profitability due to higher sales and marketing costs and lack of anticipated savings • Operating margin down 80bp to 13.7%
38 Western Europe – key facts
• 50m hl beer Pro-rata beer volumes • 13,900 employees • 23 breweries
Others, Poland incl. Export & Licence
UK
Organic DKK bn 2015 2014 growth
Beer volumes (m hl) 50.2 50.0 0%
France Other beverages (m hl) 16.2 15.8 +2%
Total volumes (m hl) 66.4 65.8 +1%
Net revenue 39.0 37.8 +3% South East Nordic Europe Germany countries EBITDA 7.0 7.1 -2%
EBIT 5.3 5.5 -3%
39 Western Europe – profitability and returns
EBIT and EBIT margin (rhs) Invested capital and ROIC (rhs) DKK bn DKK bn 6 18% 40 21%
35 18% 5 15%
30 15% 4 12% 25 12%
3 9% 20
9% 15 2 6% 6% 10
1 3% 3% 5
0 0% 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note: The calculation of invested capital was changed in 2014 (2013 numbers restated), after which goodwill and trademarks related to the acquisition in 2004 of Orkla’s 40% in Carlsberg Breweries have been allocated to the 40 relevant beverage segments (previously in non-bev. segment) Denmark & Sweden
Carlsberg Danmark • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 55% • 1 brewery • Key brands: Tuborg, Carlsberg, Somersby
• Per capita consumption: 89 litres • On-trade share of total market, approx.: 26%
Carlsberg Sverige • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 34% • 1 brewery • Key brands: Pripps, Falcon, Carlsberg, Somersby
• Per capita consumption: 47 litres (excl. border trade) • On-trade share of total market, approx.: 22%
41 Norway & Finland
Ringnes (Norway) • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 55% • 2 breweries • Key brands: Ringnes, Tuborg, Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 54litres • On-trade share of total market, approx.: 20%
Sinebrychoff (Finland) • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 47% • 1 brewery • Key brands: Karhu, Koff, Nikolai, Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 83 litres • On-trade share of total market, approx.: 15%
42 Germany & Poland
Carlsberg Polska • Market position: No. 3 • Market share: 19% • 3 breweries • Key brands: Okocim, Kasztelan, Harnas, Carlsberg, Somersby
• Per capita consumption: 100 litres • On-trade share of total market, approx.: 10%
Carlsberg Deutschland • Market position: No. 1 (Northern Germany) • Market share: 16% (Northern Germany) • 2 breweries • Key brands: Holsten, Astra, Dückstein, Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 92 litres • On-trade share of total market, approx.: 17%
43 UK & France
Carlsberg UK • Market position: No. 4 • Market share: 14% • 1 brewery • Key brands: Carlsberg, Tetley, Tuborg, Somersby
• Per capita consumption: 69 litres • On-trade share of total market, approx.: 49%
Kronenbourg (France) • Market position: No. 2 • Market share: 30% • 1 brewery • Key brands: 1664, Grimbergen, Carlsberg, Tuborg Skøll, Tourtel, Kronenbourg, Kanterbrau
• Per capita consumption: 30 litres • On-trade share of total market: 28%
44 Switzerland & Italy
Feldschlösschen (Switzerland) • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 42% • 1 breweries • Key brands: Feldschlösschen, Cardinal, Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 56 litres • On-trade share of total market: 41%
Carlsberg Italia • Market position: No. 4 • Market share: 7% • 1 breweries • Key brands: Birra Poretti, Bock, Carlsberg, Tuborg
• Per capita consumption: 28 litres • On-trade share of total market: 39%
45 Baltics & South East Europe
Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) • Market position: No. 1-2 • Market share: 26-42% • 3 breweries • Key brands: Aldaris, Svyturys, Utenos, Saku, Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 68-96 litres • On-trade share of total market, approx.: 4-6%
South East Europe (Bulgaria, Croatia, Serbia, Greece) • Market position: No. 2-3 • Market share: 16-27% • 5 breweries • Key brands: Pan, Pirinsko, Shumensko, Lav, Mythos, Carlsberg, Tuborg, Somersby
• Per capita consumption: 35-75 litres • On-trade share of total market, approx.: 16-52%
46 Portugal
Unicer (Portugal) • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 47% • 1 breweries • Ownership share: 44% • Key brands: Super Bock, Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 46 litres • On-trade share of total market, approx.: 58%
47 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer Eastern Europe
RUSSIA Baltika • No. 1 • Market share: 35% • Breweries: 8
KAZAKHSTAN Derbes • No. 2 • Market share: 27% • Breweries: 1
UKRAINE Carlsberg Ukraine • No. 2 • Market share: 30% • Breweries: 3
AZERBAIJAN Baltika-Baku BELARUS • No. 1 Olivaria • Market share: 75% • No. 1 • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 29% • Breweries: 1
49 Eastern Europe – Region characteristics
• Russia - the main market in the region • Regional beer market value growth • Beer market decline in recent years driven by – Challenged macroeconomy – Unavoidable, significant price increases due to excise tax and FX-driven COGS increases – Changed regulation in Russia • Retail landscape in developing phase – Modern trade growing – Traditional trade largest sales channel • Main focus – Stabilising our Russian business – Secure value growth through – Value management – Driving our international and local premium brands – Innovation – Superior commercial execution
50 Eastern Europe – 2015 headlines
• Challenging macro environment – Declining regional market share • Group regional volumes declined by 14% • 2% organic net revenue growth – Strong price/mix of 16% • Gross profit/hl +10% • Operating profit decline due to – Lower volumes – Higher sales and marketing investments – Negative currency impact
51 Eastern Europe – 2014 headlines
• Positive market share development in most markets • Russian beer market decline of ~7% • Strong price/mix of +9% driven by – Price increases – Small mix improvement – Launch of slightly smaller pack sizes in Russia • 12% organic operating profit decline; 28% reported operating profit decline – Strong price/mix and efficiency improvements more than offset by lower volumes, higher COGS, higher logistic costs and write-off on obsolete stocks – Significant negative currency impact
52 Eastern Europe – key facts
• 32m hl of beer Pro-rata beer volumes • 10,300 employees • 14 breweries Others
Ukraine
Organic DKK bn 2015 2014 growth
Beer volumes (m hl) 32.2 37.8 -14%
Other beverages (m hl) 1.7 1.7 +2%
Total volumes (m hl) 34.0 39.5 -14%
Net revenue 11.0 14.1 +2% Russia
EBITDA 1.9 4.2 -19%
EBIT 2.8 3.0 -13%
53 Eastern Europe – profitability and returns
EBIT and EBIT margin (rhs) Invested capital and ROIC (rhs) DKK bn DKK bn 6 30% 72 30%
5 25% 60 25%
4 20% 48 20%
3 15% 36 15%
2 10% 24 10%
1 5% 12 5%
0 0% 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note: The calculation of invested capital was changed in 2014 (2013 numbers restated), after which goodwill and trademarks related to the acquisition in 2004 of Orkla’s 40% in Carlsberg Breweries have been allocated to the 54 relevant beverage segments (previously in non-bev. segment) Russia
Baltika • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 35% • 8 breweries • Key brands: Baltika 3, Baltika 7, Bolshaya Kruzhka, Baltika Cooler, Zatecky Gus, Tuborg, Carlsberg, Holsten
• Per capita consumption: 49 litres • On-trade share of total market: 11%
Carlsberg Ukraine • Market position: No. 2 • Market share: 30% • 3 breweries • Key brands: Lvivske, Slavutich, Carlsberg, Baltika
• Per capita consumption: 48 litres • On-trade share of total market: 12%
55 Russian brand portfolio
Largest brand
Super Tuborg premium
Premium Baltika 7
Mainstream Baltika 3
Lower Arsenalnoe mainstream
Bolshaya Discount Kruzhka
Non-beer brands
56 Russian beer market dynamics
Russian beer market Russian beer market, consumer value
m hl RUB bn 119 675
600 102
525 85 450
68 375
51 300
225 34 150
17 75
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
57 Belarus & Kazakhstan
Olivaria (Belarus) • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 29% • 1 brewery • Key brands: Alivaria, Carlsberg, Holsten
• Per capita consumption: 46 litres • On-trade share of total market: 5%
Carlsberg Kazakhstan • Market position: No. 2 • Market share: 27% • 1 brewery • Key brands: Derbes, Irbis, Carlsberg, Tuborg
• Per capita consumption: 27 litres • On-trade share of total market: 13%
58 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer Asia
HONG KONG Carlsberg Hong Kong Ltd VIETNAM • No. 2 SEAB • Market share: 26% Hue Brewery Habeco Vung Tau LAOS • No. 4 • Market share: 9% Lao Brewery Co. CHINA • Breweries1: 3 • No. 1 (Western) • Market share: 97% • No. 1 • Breweries: 2 • Market share: ~55% • Breweries: 37
NEPAL CAMBODIA Gorkha Brewery Cambrew • No. 1 • No. 1 • Market share: 70% • Market share: 63% • Breweries: 1 INDIA • Breweries: 1 Carlsberg India • No. 3 • Market share: 15% • Breweries: 7
SRI LANKA Lion Brewery Ceylon • No. 1 • Breweries: 1
MALAWI MALAYSIA Carlsberg Malawi Carlsberg Brewery • No. 1 Malaysia Berhad • Breweries: 1 • No. 2 • Market share: 38% • Breweries: 1
MYANMAR Carlsberg Myanmar • No. 4 SINGAPORE • Breweries: 1 Carlsberg Singapore 1Excl. Habeco • No. 2 • Market share: 20% 60 Asia – Region characteristics
• Portfolio of mature and growing beer markets • Beer market growth driven by – Expanding populations – Urbanisation – Rising disposable income levels – Growing economies – Relatively low per capita consumption • Varying competitive intensity contested by local as well as major international brewers • International presence mostly through joint ventures with local partners or equity stakes
61 Asia – 2015 headlines
• Lower overall market growth due to China – Positive market share development • Strong performance of Tuborg and local power brands • Beer volumes up 2% organically • 5% organic net revenue growth • Price/mix of 1% • 13% organic operating profit growth – Top-line growth – Tight cost control
62 Asia – key facts
• 38m hl of beer Pro-rata beer volumes • 20,700 employees Malaysia & Others • 53 breweries Singapore
India
Organic DKK bn 2015 2014 growth
Beer volumes (m hl) 37.8 35.0 +2%
Other beverages (m hl) 3.6 3.5 +4%
Total volumes (m hl) 41.4 38.5 +2% Indochina Net revenue 15.3 12.5 +5% China
EBITDA 4.2 3.2 +17%
EBIT 2.8 2.2 +13%
63 Asia – profitability and returns
EBIT and EBIT margin (rhs) Invested capital and ROIC (rhs) DKK bn DKK bn 3.0 24% 28 14%
24 12% 2.5 20%
20 10% 2.0 16%
16 8%
1.5 12%
12 6%
1.0 8% 8 4%
0.5 4% 4 2%
0.0 0% 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
64 China and Hong Kong
China • Market position, western China: No. 1 (national: no. 5) • Market share, western China: ~55% (national: 5%) • 37 breweries through fully or partly owned businesses • Ownership share: 50-100% • Key brands: Shancheng, Chongqing, Wusu, Dali, Huang He, Xixia, Carlsberg, Tuborg
• Per capita consumption: 29 litres • On-trade share of total market: 44%
Carlsberg Hong Kong • Market position: No. 2 • Market share: 26% • 0 breweries • Ownership share: 100% • Key brands: Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 24 litres • On-trade share of total market: 29%
65 China
Wusu Xinjiang Beer Group Lanzhou Group Ningxia Group Ownership share 65% Ownership share 50% Ownership share 70%
Xinjiang
Gansu Lhasa Brewery Ownership share 50% Ningxia Qinghai
Tibet
Sichuan Chong- qing
Hunan Guiyang
Qinghai Huang He Brewery Yunnan Guangdong Guangxi Ownership share 50% Guangdong Ownership share 99%
Yunnan Group Chongqing Brewery Company Ownership share 100% Ownership share 60%
66 Malaysia and Singapore
Carlsberg Malaysia • Market position: No. 2 • Market share: 38% • 1 brewery • Ownership share: 51% • Key brands: Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 6 litres • On-trade share of total market: 73%
Carlsberg Singapore • Market position: No. 2 • Market share: 20% • 0 brewery • Ownership share: 51% • Key brands: Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 21 litres • On-trade share of total market: 65%
67 Vietnam and Laos
Vietnam • Market position: No. 4 • Market share: 9% • 3 breweries (excl. Habeco) • Ownership share: 17-100% • Key brands: Huda, Halida, Festival, Thang Long, Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 33 litres • On-trade share of total market: 42%
Lao Brewery (Laos) • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 97% • 2 breweries • Ownership share: 61% • Key brands: Beer Lao, Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 42 litres • On-trade share of total market: 45%
68 Cambodia
Cambrew (Cambodia) • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 63% • 1 brewery • Ownership share: 50% • Key brands: Angkor Beer, Carlsberg
• Per capita consumption: 39 litres • On-trade share of total market: 12%
Myanmar (brewery opened in May 2015) • Market position: No. 4 • Market share: 2% • 1 brewery • Ownership share: 51% • Key brands: Yoma, Tuborg
• Per capita consumption: 8 litres • On-trade share of total market: 50%
69 India and Nepal
Carlsberg India • Market position: No. 3 • Market share: 15% (>30% in three states) • 7 breweries • Ownership share: 100% • Key brands: Tuborg, Carlsberg, Palone
• Per capita consumption: 2 litres • On-trade share of total market: 20%
Gorkha Brewery (Nepal) • Market position: No. 1 • Market share: 70% • 1 brewery • Ownership share: 90% • Key brands: Gorkha, Tuborg
• Per capita consumption: 2 litres • On-trade share of total market: 77%
70 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer Financial policy
• Committed to maintaining investment grade credit rating • Centralised funding and risk management at the level of Carlsberg Breweries A/S • Diversified sources of funding and smooth maturity profile • Ample capital resources available at all times
72 Commitment to Investment Grade
• Rated by Fitch and Moody’s since January 2006
• Long Term Issuer Rating: BBB • Rating: Baa2
• Outlook: Stable • Outlook: Negative • Date: 09-01-2015 • Date: 21-02-2011 “Carlsberg's Baa2 long-term ratings are “Fitch Ratings expects that Carlsberg Breweries supported by the company's (1) scale as the A/S’s profile will remain stable and fourth world's largest brewers, with leading commensurate with a 'BBB' rating, despite positions in some of its key European and Asian ongoing macro-economic and geopolitical markets, including Russia; (2) increasing issues in eastern Europe. Carlsberg’s tight geographic diversification; and (3) solid cash credit metrics for 2014 do not fully align with flow supporting net debt reduction, albeit at a its IDR, but Fitch believes Carlsberg will be slower pace than we previously expected, given able to reduce leverage in 2015 whilst still the persistently challenging trading conditions in investing in supporting the long-term the European and Russian beer markets.” (09- sustainability of its business” (26-05-2015) 01-2015)
73 Diversified sources of funding
• Conservative funding policy Funding sources – Main funding sources are bonds and 3% 1% long-term bank facilities 3%
– Carlsberg maintains a EUR 5bn EMTN 12% programme (EUR 1.1bn un-utilised) – DKK 15.5bn of a EUR 2,510m credit facility was un-utilised at year-end. The facility expires February 2021 with an option to extend for 1 year – No financial covenants
81%
Bonds Non-current bank borrowing Non-current mortgages Current bank borrowings Other, current and non-current
74 Ample capital resources
• Interest rate risk – 69% of net financial debt carries a fixed interest rate – Average duration is 3.8 years – EUR and DKK accounts for 78% of net financial debt
Time to maturity, Committed credit facilities and non-current borrowings net financial debt, end Dec. 2015
25 60
20 48
15 36
10 24
5 12
0 0 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years > 5 years 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019->
75 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer Our sustainability strategy continues to be focused around three key themes
FOCUSING ON THREE KEY THEMES THEMES
RESOURCES & HEALTH & PEOPLE & ENVIRONMENT WELL-BEING POLICIES
FOR IMPLEMENTATION IN OUR VALUE CHAIN
77 Learn more at www.carlsberggroup.com/sustainability Sustainability performance 2015 - Selected highlights
78 Resources & environment - Optimising resource efficiency
Building a circular mindset Increasing brewing efficiency
• 5-10% reduction in relative consumption for energy, water and CO2 • 17 partners in the Carlsberg Circular Community 2017 • 3 Cradle-to-Cradle® product certifications TARGETS • Annual consumer-facing sustainable packaging activity by all Group companies • Improve returnable packaging performance in production and in trade in markets where returnable packaging is part of the long-term packaging strategy 79 Resources & environment - Highlights
80 Health & Well-being - Creating a culture of responsible drinking
Promoting moderate Preventing underage Marketing our consumption drinking and drink driving products responsibly
• All print communication above A4 and digital and TV commercials to carry responsible drinking messages • All Group companies to implement at least one responsible drinking programme 2017 • 100% of consumer-facing primary packaging to carry responsible drinking symbols to discourage TARGETS harmful drinking • 80% of consumer-facing primary packaging in Western Europe to carry information on ingredients and nutritional values 81 • Annually reach at least 20 million consumers through responsible drinking messaging and campaigns People and polices
Health & Business Labour & Community Responsible Safety Ethics Human Rights Engagement sourcing
SETTING STANDARDS OUR SUPPLIERS MUST CREATING A SAFE AND OUR POSITION ON ENGAGING AND TO CREATE ADHERE TO MINIMUM HEALTHY WORKING AMONG OTHERS ANTI- CONTRIBUTING TO THE WORKPLACES WHERE CSR STANDARDS IN ENVIRONMENT FOR CORRUPTION AND COMMUNITIES WHERE EMPLOYEES CAN FULFILL THEIR DAY-TO-DAY YOUR EMPLOYEES BRIBERY WE OPERATE THEIR POTENTIAL BUSINESS
• Increase diversity and female representation at senior leadership level 2017 • Reduce the Group lost-time accident rate by 40% TARGETS • Read more in the 2015 Sustainability report at www.carlsberggroup.com/sustainability
82 Partnering with stakeholders
• Signatory of the UN Global Compact – The UN Global Compact promotes organisational integration of environmental, social and governance issues. • Signatory of the CEO Water Mandate – Taking part in the CEO water mandate helps us identify new ways to use our water resources more efficiently. • Caring for Climate platform – The Caring for Climate initiative provides us with a framework to advance solutions for climate change. • Partnering with UNIDO – In partnership with UNIDO, Carlsberg Group and Baltika Breweries have committed to invest RUB 1bn in environmental projects over the next five years. • CEO commitment to reduce harmful use of alcohol – Collective commitment among 13 CEOs of wine, beer and spirits producers to 10 targeted actions in support of WHO strategy to reduce harmful use of alcohol. • BIER – Beverage Industry Environmental Roundtable (BIER) consists of leading beverage companies working together on a variety of environmental stewardship initiatives.
83 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer Carlsberg shares and ownership
Key share data Major shareholders
Carlsberg A Carlsberg B Company Ownership 30% of capital No. of shares 33,699,252 118,857,554 The Carlsberg Foundation 75% of votes Massachusetts Financial Currency DKK DKK > 5% of capital Services Company NASDAQ OMX NASDAQ OMX Stock market Copenhagen Copenhagen
ISIN DK001018167-6 DK001018175-9 Geographical break-down of shareholders, free float1 Symbol CARL A CARL B
Geography Ownership Reuters CARLa.CO CARLb.CO Denmark 13% Bloomberg CARLA DC CARLB DC USA 43% Votes per share 20 2 UK 13% Par value 20 20 Other 31%
1 Excluding The Carlsberg Foundation
85 Carlsberg ADR program (Sponsored Level 1)
Symbol CABGY
CUSIP 142795202
Exchange OTC
Ratio 5 ADRs: 1 ORD
Depositary JPMorgan
Effective Date 26 February 2010
U.S. ISIN US1427952023
Underlying SEDOL 4169219
Underlying ISIN DK0010181759
86 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer Find out more …
• … about our heritage … • … about our corporate governance ... • … about our brands … • … about our sustainability efforts …
• … about the Carlsberg share and ADRs … • … download our 2015 annual report … • … download quarterly financial data in excel … • … about the Carlsberg Foundation …
88 Agenda
Group overview & history Strategy & Funding the Journey Our brands Financial performance 2016 Outlook Our regions • Western Europe • Eastern Europe • Asia Financial policy & leverage Sustainability Share data Find out more … Disclaimer Disclaimer
Forward-looking statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements about the Group’s sales, revenues, earnings, spending, margins, cash flow, inventory, products, actions, plans, strategies, objectives and guidance with respect to the Group's future operating results. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain the words "believe", "anticipate", "expect", "estimate", "intend", "plan", "project", "will be", "will continue", "will result", "could", "may", "might", or any variations of such words or other words with similar meanings. Any such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the Group's actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in such forward-looking statements. Prospective information is based on management’s then current expectations or forecasts. Such information is subject to the risk that such expectations or forecasts, or the assumptions underlying such expectations or forecasts, may change. The Group assumes no obligation to update any such forward- looking statements to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting such forward-looking statements. Some important risk factors that could cause the Group's actual results to differ materially from those expressed in its forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: economic and political uncertainty (including interest rates and exchange rates), financial and regulatory developments, demand for the Group's products, increasing industry consolidation, competition from other breweries, the availability and pricing of raw materials and packaging materials, cost of energy, production and distribution related issues, information technology failures, breach or unexpected termination of contracts, price reductions resulting from market driven price reductions, market acceptance of new products, changes in consumer preferences, launches of rival products, stipulation of market value in the opening balance sheet of acquired entities, litigation, environmental issues and other unforeseen factors. New risk factors can arise, and it may not be possible for management to predict all such risk factors, nor to assess the impact of all such risk factors on the Group's business or the extent to which any individual risk factor, or combination of factors, may cause results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Accordingly, forward-looking statements should not be relied on as a prediction of actual results.
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