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Russia's Hostile Measures in Europe
Russia’s Hostile Measures in Europe Understanding the Threat Raphael S. Cohen, Andrew Radin C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1793 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0077-2 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report is the collaborative and equal effort of the coauthors, who are listed in alphabetical order. The report documents research and analysis conducted through 2017 as part of a project entitled Russia, European Security, and “Measures Short of War,” sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, U.S. -
Power and Plunder in Putin's Russia Miriam Lanskoy, Dylan Myles-Primakoff
Power and Plunder in Putin's Russia Miriam Lanskoy, Dylan Myles-Primakoff Journal of Democracy, Volume 29, Number 1, January 2018, pp. 76-85 (Article) Published by Johns Hopkins University Press DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2018.0006 For additional information about this article https://muse.jhu.edu/article/683637 Access provided by your local institution (13 Mar 2018 16:12 GMT) PRE created by BK on 11/20/17. The Rise of Kleptocracy POWER AND PLUNDER IN PUTIN’S RUSSIA Miriam Lanskoy and Dylan Myles-Primakoff Miriam Lanskoy is senior director for Russia and Eurasia at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). She is the author, with Ilyas Akhmadov, of The Chechen Struggle: Independence Won and Lost (2010). Dylan Myles-Primakoff is senior program officer for Russia and Eurasia at the NED. Since Vladimir Putin rose to power in 1999, the quest to restore the might of the Russian state at home and abroad has been a hallmark of his rule. Yet another such hallmark has been rampant looting by the country’s leaders. Thus Russia has figured prominently in recent schol- arly discussions about kleptocracies—regimes distinguished by a will- ingness to prioritize defending their leaders’ mechanisms of personal enrichment over other goals of statecraft. In a kleptocracy, then, cor- ruption plays an outsized role in determining policy. But how have the state-building and great-power ambitions of the new Russian elite coex- isted with its scramble for self-enrichment? Putin’s Russia offers a vivid illustration of how kleptocratic plunder can become not only an end in itself, but also a tool for both consolidating domestic political control and projecting power abroad. -
CORRUPTION PIPELINE: the Threat of Nord Stream 2 to EU Security and Democracy
CORRUPTION PIPELINE: the threat of Nord Stream 2 to EU Security and Democracy Ilya Zaslavskiy Ilya Zaslavskiy | Corruption Pipeline: The Threat of Nord Stream 2 to EU Security and Democracy | Free Russia Foundation, 2017 1 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 3 NS2 AS A TOOL OF KREMLIN’S POLITICAL INFLUENCE AGAINST NEIGHBORS AND CORRUPTION 4 ACTUAL RESULTS OF NORD STREAM 1 7 ROOTS OF GAZPROM’S APPEASEMENT IN EUROPE 10 IMPLICATIONS OF NS2 FOR WESTERN POLICY-MAKERS 16 Corruption Pipeline: The Threat of Nord Stream 2 CONTENTS to EU Security and Democracy I. INTRODUCTION his paper is a continuation of publications on security architecture. This Moscow-led pipeline Tthe Kremlin’s subversive activity in Europe seemingly being served as a free and lucrative prepared by Free Russia Foundation. The first gift to European energy corporations in reality paper, The Kremlin’s Gas Games in Europe, comes at the expense of taxpayers and the published jointly with the Atlantic Council, reasonable long-term development of gas looked at Gazprom’s overall current tactics in resources in Russia. Nord Stream 1 and 2 have Europe, including its pipeline plans, energy already started bringing the Kremlin’s business propaganda, and other policies.1 However, after practices and political cooptation to Europe, and our presentations in the US and Europe earlier they will further undermine EU aspirations for this year,2 we realized that a separate paper better governance, democratic institutions and specifically focused on certain aspects of Nord security. Stream 2 was required. To understand why this development is accepted Gazprom and its Western partners that are slated in Germany, and meets with weak and confused to benefit from Nord Stream 2 are aggressively resistance in the EU, it is important to look at advancing the pipeline as a purely commercial the roots of the friendship between big Western project that will only bring benefits to Europe. -
“Russian Energy Policy and Its Challenge to Western Policy Makers”
“Russian Energy Policy and its Challenge to Western Policy Makers” Keith C. Smith Senior Associate Center for Strategic and International Studies March 2008 Summary • The U.S. and the EU have too long ignored the Kremlin’s non -transparent and monopolis tic energy policies , and its use of natural resources to exert political influence over the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe. • The responses of the EU and U.S. to Russian energy policies ha ve been weak and uncoordinated and have had little or n o effect on Kremlin behavior . • The disruption of natural gas to Ukraine and Georgia in January 2006, of oil to Lithuania and Belarus in 2006, and of gas to Georgia again in January 2007 was only an intensification of Russia’s petro -politics that began as ea rly as 1990 . • Studies document that there have been over 40 politically -motivated energy disruptions or threatened disruptions by Moscow in the past 17 years. • Europe could be less concerned if Russia were rapidly moving in the direction of Western -style d emocracy. Unfortunately, Putin’s Russia has become more authoritarian, nationalistic and desirous of re -establishing its Soviet -era hold over its European and Central Asian neighbors. • The U.S. and Europe’s tolerance of, or at most token opposition to, Russ ia’s coercive policies and non -transparent business practices have convinced the Kremlin that the West is either powerless or lacks the will to re act because of its perceived need for Russia’s substantial resources . • The reality , however, is that Russia is very much dependent on revenue from Europe ’s energy markets and on Western financing and technology in the energy sector . -
Nord Stream: Not Just a Pipeline
FNI Report 15/2008 Nord Stream: Not Just a Pipeline An analysis of the political debates in the Baltic Sea region regarding the planned gas pipeline from Russia to Germany Bendik Solum Whist Nord Stream: Not Just a Pipeline An analysis of the political debates in the Baltic Sea Region regarding the planned gas pipeline from Russia to Germany Bendik Solum Whist [email protected] November 2008 Copyright © Fridtjof Nansen Institute 2008 Title: Nord Stream: Not Just a Pipeline. An analysis of the political debates in the Baltic Sea region regarding the planned gas pipeline from Russia to Germany Publication Type and Number Pages FNI Report 15/2008 79 Author ISBN Bendik Solum Whist 978-82-7613-546-6-print version 978-82-7613-547-3-online version Project ISSN 1504-9744 Abstract This report is an analysis of the planned gas pipeline from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea known as Nord Stream. Although not yet realised, the project has, since its birth, been the subject of harsh criticism and opposition by a significant number of states that consider themselves affected by the pipeline. Whereas the Baltic States and Poland have interpreted the pipeline as a political- ly motivated strategy that will increase Russia’s leverage on them and threaten their energy security, the debate in Sweden was at first mostly concerned with the prospect of increased Russian military presence in the Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone. The potential environmental impact of the pipeline has been, and continues to be, an overarching concern shared by all the littoral states of the Baltic Sea. -
How He and His Cronies Stole Russia
How He and His Cronies Stole Russia Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia? by Karen Dawisha Simon and Schuster review by Anne Applebaum New York Review of Books For twenty years now, the Western politicians, journalists, businessmen, and academics who observe and describe the post-Soviet evolution of Russia have almost all followed the same narrative. We begin with the assumption that the Soviet Union ended in 1991, when Mikhail Gorbachev handed over power to Boris Yeltsin and Russia, Ukraine, and the rest of the Soviet republics became independent states. We continue with an account of the early 1990s, an era of “reform,” when some Russian leaders tried to create a democratic political system and a liberal capitalist economy. We follow the trials and tribulations of the reformers, analyze the attempts at privatization, discuss the ebb and flow of political parties and the growth and decline of an independent media. Mostly we agree that those reforms failed, and sometimes we blame ourselves for those failures: we gave the wrong advice, we sent naive Harvard economists who should have known better, we didn’t have a Marshall Plan. Sometimes we blame the Russians: the economists didn’t follow our advice, the public was apathetic, President Yeltsin was indecisive, then drunk, then ill. Sometimes we hope that reforms will return, as many believed they might during the short reign of President Dmitry Medvedev. Whatever their conclusion, almost all of these analysts seek an explanation in the reform process itself, asking whether it was effective, or whether it was flawed, or whether it could have been designed differently. -
The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline
BRIEFING The Nord Stream 2 pipeline Economic, environmental and geopolitical issues SUMMARY The EU's dependence on Russian gas imports shows no signs of lessening. Although the Green Deal envisages a carbon-neutral Europe by 2050, natural gas remains a key part of the energy mix as coal is phased out and renewable energy is not yet ready to fully take up the slack. EU domestic gas production is fast declining, and there is not enough gas at affordable prices from alternative suppliers to replace Russian production. Launched in 2015, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline connects Russia and Germany directly via the Baltic Sea, following a similar route to Nord Stream 1 completed in 2011. Construction has taken several years, with delays due to protracted legal battles and, since 2019, US sanctions. Nevertheless, pipe- laying continues and is on track for completion in the next few months. Few energy projects have ever been as hotly debated as Nord Stream 2. Pipeline owner Gazprom, a Russian state-controlled company, argues that it is needed to meet the EU's growing demand for gas imports. Germany's energy sector also sees the pipeline as a viable commercial project. Some opponents point to the environmental impact of the pipeline's construction, as well as the contradiction between the EU's climate goals and long-term investments in fossil fuel import infrastructure. However, the pipeline's geopolitical implications are its most controversial aspect. Critics, including several EU Member States, describe Nord Stream 2 as a Kremlin project to export malign Russian influence as well as gas to Europe. -
Nord Stream, Matthias Warnig (Codename “Arthur
(https://jamestown.org/) Nord Stream, Matthias Warnig (codename “Arthur”) and the Gazprom Lobby Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 114 By: Roman Kupchinsky (https://jamestown.org/analyst/roman- kupchinsky/) June 15, 2009 04:11 PM Age: 8 years Matthias Warnig The ongoing battle over the construction of the Russian-German Nord Stream gas pipeline is reaching a critical stage. In June the German ministry of defense once again voiced its opposition to the proposed route of the pipeline, and presented their arguments to the German parliament’s committee on national defense. The timing of this latest setback for Gazprom’s pet project came when German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeyer arrived in Moscow for talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (www.jamestown.org/blog, June 11). Steinmeyer, who in the past had been a steadfast supporter of Nord Stream, was now on slippery ground. He was running against German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the upcoming election and did not want to been seen as kowtowing to Russian pressure. This in turn elicited a strong response by Gazprom deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev who stated: "Europe must decide how to resolve this situation. If Europe does not want our gas, we will find the means to sell it elsewhere" (Kommersant, June 10). This threat was made previously and the German reaction was laconic. Regardless of the increasing tension, the German Ambassador to the U.S. Klaus Scharioth, announced that he will host a dinner in Washington on June 15 for the head of the Nord Stream project, Matthias Warnig. -
U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs 2170 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC 20515
GREGORY W. MEEKS, NEW YORK MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, TEXAS CHAIRMAN RANKING REPUBLICAN MEMBER SOPHIA A. LAFARGUE BRENDAN P. SHIELDS STAFF DIRECTOR REPUBLICAN STAFF DIRECTOR One Hundred Seventeenth Congress U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs 2170 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC 20515 www.foreignaffairs.house.gov June 1, 2021 The Honorable Antony Blinken Secretary of State U.S. Department of State 2201 C Street NW Washington, DC 20520 Dear Secretary Blinken: We write to you to express deep disappointment with the Biden Administration’s decision to apply a U.S. national interest waiver to forego the imposition of mandatory sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG, its CEO, Matthias Warnig, and its corporate officers for their involvement in the Russian malign influence Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. Its completion will only empower the Kremlin to spread its destabilizing behavior further into Europe and fill Putin’s coffers to fund future aggression. We appreciate that the Administration has finally acknowledged what has been well known for some time: these people and entities have been engaged in activities for months for which mandatory sanctions are required pursuant to the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act (PEESA), as amended by the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Clarification Act (PEESCA). To take action, however, and then immediately waive the sanctions undermines the Administration’s repeated public opposition to the completion of Nord Stream 2 because it is a “bad deal for Europe”. The rationale provided to Congress for issuing a waiver is highly problematic. For starters, the assertion that these sanctions would “negatively impact U.S. -
A Pilot Study of the North European Gas Pipeline and Sweden's
FOI SWEDEN AND THE NEGP: A Pilot Study of the North European Gas Pipeline and Sweden’s Dependence on Russian Energy Robert L.L arsson FOI-R—1984 —SE Base data report Defence Analysis ISSN 1650-1942 June 2006 Sweden and the NEGP Developments between 2004 and 2006 indicate that a North European Gas Pipeline (NEGP) through the Baltic Sea, from Russia to Germany, may be realised in the coming decade. This would provide Europe with yet another opportunity to diversify its import channels of gas. It is however reasonable to assume that the NEGP also could change the strategic pattern and be a source of friction. The NEGP may rock the regional stability and reduce the potential of the new EU members to become security providers in Europe’s northern dimension. It also gives increased leverage and influence to Russia, a state that has moved in an authoritarian direction under President Putin. The aim of this pilot study is to elucidate on the NEGP pipeline and Sweden’s increasing dependence on Russian energy. A subsidiary aim is to outline a set of concerns that have bearing on the situation for the EU and Baltic Sea Region and that need to be further addressed. In conclusion, the NEGP will enhance Russia ’s direct leverage on Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus, as it will allow Russia to turn off gas supplies without affecting exports to other parts of Europe. Russia will also increase its leverage over the states that will or may be connected to the NEGP (Germany, and possibly Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and the UK). -
Lack of Transparency in Russian Energy Trade the Risks to Europe CENTER for STRATEGIC & CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Lack of Transparency in Russian Energy Trade The Risks to Europe CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org author Keith C. Smith July 2010 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Lack of Transparency in Russian Energy Trade The Risks to Europe author Keith C. Smith July 2010 About CSIS In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmakers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions. Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, DC. More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected world. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. -
Russian Intervention in European Elections
S. HRG. 115–105 RUSSIAN INTERVENTION IN EUROPEAN ELECTIONS HEARING BEFORE THE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE OF THE UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION WEDNESDAY, JUNE 28, 2017 Printed for the use of the Select Committee on Intelligence ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.fdsys.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 26–127 PDF WASHINGTON : 2017 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Publishing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate Sep 11 2014 09:42 Nov 07, 2017 Jkt 026127 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 C:\DOCS\26127.TXT SHAUN LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE [Established by S. Res. 400, 94th Cong., 2d Sess.] RICHARD BURR, North Carolina, Chairman MARK R. WARNER, Virginia, Vice Chairman JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho DIANNE FEINSTEIN, California MARCO RUBIO, Florida RON WYDEN, Oregon SUSAN COLLINS, Maine MARTIN HEINRICH, New Mexico ROY BLUNT, Missouri ANGUS KING, Maine JAMES LANKFORD, Oklahoma JOE MANCHIN III, West Virginia TOM COTTON, Arkansas KAMALA HARRIS, California JOHN CORNYN, Texas MITCH MCCONNELL, Kentucky, Ex Officio CHARLES SCHUMER, New York, Ex Officio JOHN MCCAIN, Arizona, Ex Officio JACK REED, Rhode Island, Ex Officio CHRIS JOYNER, Staff Director MICHAEL CASEY, Minority Staff Director KELSEY STROUD BAILEY, Chief Clerk (II) VerDate Sep 11 2014 09:42 Nov 07, 2017 Jkt 026127 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C:\DOCS\26127.TXT SHAUN LAP51NQ082 with DISTILLER CONTENTS JUNE 28, 2017 OPENING STATEMENTS Burr, Hon.