Modeling the low-carbon energy transition of territories: q
A TIMES-SUDPACA model to assess the long-term decarbonization strategy of the south-east region of France
Carlos ANDRADE, Sandrine SELOSSE , Nadia MAÏZI
10 December 2019 MINES ParisTech PSL Research University Centre for Applied Mathematics Sophia Antipolis The RÉGION SUD PROVENCE-ALPES-CÔTE D’AZUR
2 SUD PACA region’s final energy consumption in 2016
By sector Total ktoe 5000
4500 4% 4000
3500 16% 3000
2500 50%
2000 30%
1500
1000
500
0 Transport Builing Industry Agriculture
Source: ADMOSUD • With 11 940 ktoe in 2016 the consumption of the SUD PACA region represents 8% of the French energy consumption • Fossil fuels cover 66% of regional energy consumption • 50% of households in the region own at least one car • Heat production accounts for 50% of the energy consumed by the building sector 3 Final energy consumption in the SUD PACA Region in 2016 by department
4 Final energy production by department of the SUD PACA Region in 2016
Final energy production Departments’ production vs demand
ktoe 6000 ktoe
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 BDR1 BDR2 AM1 AM2 VAR1 VAR2 VAUC AHP HA
Demand 2016 Production 2016
• The SUD PACA region produces around 15% of the energy it consumes • Renewable resources account for 70% of the final energy production • Zone 1 of Bouches-du-Rhône produces 50% of the regional production • Biomass is a significant energy source especially for heat production 5 2050 renewable energies technical potential
PJ
165 MW
• Solar is the most important source of renewable energy in the SUD PACA region representing around 40% of the total potential • Renewable energy potentials can cover up to 55% of current energy demand 6 Prospective – Modeling - TIMES
7 TIMES SUD PACA : Electric system representation
푷푷푷푷푷푷푷푷푷푷 − 퐓퐓퐓퐓퐓퐓퐓퐓퐓퐓퐓퐓퐓퐓 − 퐃𝐃𝐃�퐃퐃𝐃𝐃 푫푫푫푫𝑫
Energy Primairy BT HT ElcH
……. Heating … Offices Cooking Heating Heating Francelec Pacaelec Pacaelec ElcLow Reselec Comelec
( , ) 퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸 푋 푡 푋 푃�푃푃 퐻퐻 𝑇𝑇�푇𝑇𝑇� 푋 푋 𝑅�푅�푅푅푅 퐺퐺퐺퐺𝐺 ( , ) 𝑅푅�푅�푅푅푅푋 퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸 �푅푅�푅�푅푅푅푋 푃�푃푃 퐵� 푋 푡
…… 푋 �퐶퐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 퐺퐺퐺퐺𝐺푋 ( , ) 푋 Departments 퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 푎푎𝑎𝑎푎푎푎푎푎𝑎�푎 푋 푡 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶�…… 푋
퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸퐸 ( , … ) ( , ) 푎푎𝑎𝑎푎푎푎푎푎𝑎�푎 𝑅� 𝐶� 푋 푡+1 TU_PACAHT_X_ PACA
TU_ELCH_PACA_X
푋
푃 𝑃� 퐺퐺퐺퐺𝐺 TU_ELCLOW_PACA_X TU_PACABT_X_P ACA
퐺퐺퐺퐺𝐺푋
x ; = … . , = 2016 ∈ 퐴 퐴 푍𝑍�1 푍𝑍�10 � Scenarios
Production (MW) 2012 2020 2025 2030 2050
1. Reference : What is the most optimal Hydroelectricity0 3 073 3 756 3 929 3 956 4 100 solution according to potentials Wind 45 557 1068 1597 3305 Electricity Photovoltaïque 596 6912 9779 11730 46852
Biomasse 0 141 172 172 172 Demand follows past trends Heat recovery 1199 2 749 3 611 4 300 6546
Solar Thermal 20 509 781 998 2065
2. Carbon Neutral (CN) – SRADDET : Thermal Biomass 80 352 514 650 1283 Production objectifs proposed by the region SUD PACA Biogas 14 71 162 267 570
Gasification 0 55 153 267 586
TOTAL 5 027 12 353 16 558 19 637 65 479 Possible trajectories : production in the reference vs carbon neutral scenario
Reference Carbon Neutral Scenario PJ Scenario
• Fossil fuels represent 21% of the total electricity produced in the reference scenario while in the carbon neutral scenario there is no use of fossil fuels to produce electricity • Biogas and wind energy represent each one 22% of the total energy produced in the reference scenario while solar energy represents 45% of the total production in the carbon neutral scenario 10 Evolution of the final energy production by department PJ Reference Scenario
• Wind energy is developed at its maximum potential • Bouches-du-Rhône represents still almost 50% of the total production
Carbon Neutral
PJ Scenario
• Alpes-de-Haute-Provence represents almost 30% of the total production and is now the greatest producer in 2050 • Most of the new production comes from low consumption zones
AHP: Alpes-de-Haute-Provence HA: Hautes-Alpes AM: Alpes-Maritimes VAR: Var 11 BDR: Bouches-du-Rhône VAUC: Vaucluse Final energy demand in the building sector
Reference Carbon Neutral Scenario Scenario
12 Final energy demand in the residential sector : Reference vs Carbon Neutral scenario
PJ AHP: Alpes-de-Haute-Provence AM: Alpes-Maritimes BDR: Bouches-du-Rhône HA: Hautes-Alpes VAR: Var VAUC: Vaucluse
• Energy demand in the residential sector in 2050 is 15 % higher than that of 2016
13 • Fossil fuel has been almost replaced principally by the use of electricity Final energy demand in the commercial sector : Reference vs Carbon Neutral scenario
PJ AHP: Alpes-de-Haute-Provence AM: Alpes-Maritimes BDR: Bouches-du-Rhône HA: Hautes-Alpes VAR: Var VAUC: Vaucluse
• Energy demand in the commercial sector in 2050 has decreased in around 9% with respect to 2016 • Fossil fuels use in 2050 are still an important source of energy representing 14% of the total energy demand 14 Final energy demand in the transport sector : Reference vs Carbon Neutral scenario
PJ
• Oil products represent 53% of the final energy demand of the transport sector • Emissions are reduced in around 40% • The service demand that is the most decarbonised is the transport of individual passengers 15 Conclusion
• Past trends show that demand from some energy services is already on its way to decrease energy consumption, for example in the commercial sector, but the rate at which it is decreasing will not fulfill the objectives stablished by the region.
• Electricity is an important energy vector that can help the decarbonisation of the building sector, but for the transport sector it remains limited.
• With the current structure of the energy system of the regions SUD PACA, it is hard to capture the total potential of solar energy.
16 THANK YOU FOR YOU ATTENTION
Carlos ANDRADE [email protected] PhD student MINES ParisTech PSL Research University Centre for Applied Mathematics Sophia Antipolis PhD research co-founded by ADEME and the Region SUD Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur with the partnership of SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC
MINES ParisTech PSL Research University Centre for Applied Mathematics Sophia Antipolis 17