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ASAR-2015-PICSS-Fina Annual Security Assessment Report 2015 Pak Institute for Conflict and Security Studies © All Rights Reserved Annual Security Assessment Report 2015 Acknowledgement . The credit for conducting research and preparing this Annual Security Assessment Report 2015 goes to tireless efforts of the entire Research and Publication team of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) including Mr. Abdullah Khan (Managing Director/ Security Analyst), Ms. Reema Asim (PRO & Research Assistant) Mr Arfa Mehmood (Research Assistant), Ms. Haleema Amin (Research Assistant), Mr. Muhammad Ishaq (Research Assistant), and Mr Muhammad Rafiq (Internee). Special thanks to Senator (r) Akaram Zaki, Chairman PICSS, for his kind supervision and guidance throughout the preparation of this report. Gul Dad (Director Research & Publications) Pak Institute for Conflict and Security Studies © All Rights Reserved Annual Security Assessment Report 2015 Table of Contents 1 Sources, Methodology and Working of PICSS ......................................................................................... 1 1.1 Sources: .......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Methodology: ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2.1 Violent Militant Activities ........................................................................................................... 1 1.2.2 Security Forces Actions .............................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Focus: ............................................................................................................................................. 2 1.4 Defining anti-state violence: .......................................................................................................... 2 1.4.1 Target: ........................................................................................................................................ 2 1.4.2 Perpetrator: ................................................................................................................................ 3 1.4.3 Circumstances: ........................................................................................................................... 3 1.4.4 No Doubtful Entry: ..................................................................................................................... 3 2 Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 4 3 Overall Security Situation/ National Security Profile .............................................................................. 7 3.1 Countrywide Militant Attacks ......................................................................................................... 9 3.1.1 Type of Militant Attacks and their Impact ................................................................................13 3.1.2 IED Based Attacks .....................................................................................................................14 3.1.3 Suicide Attacks .........................................................................................................................16 3.1.4 Militants Physical Assault .........................................................................................................17 3.1.5 Target Killings ...........................................................................................................................17 3.2 Nationwide Security Forces Actions .............................................................................................18 4 Provincial Security Profile .....................................................................................................................21 4.1 Security Situation in Balochistan ..................................................................................................21 4.2 Security Situation in Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) ...............................................24 4.3 Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtoonkha (KPK)..........................................................................26 4.4 Security Situation in Sindh ...........................................................................................................29 4.5 Security Situation in Punjab .........................................................................................................32 4.6 Security Situation in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) .....................................................................................35 4.7 Security Situation in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) .................................................................35 4.8 Security Situation in Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJ&K) ...................................................................35 5 Significant Security/Political Developments .........................................................................................36 5.1 Daesh/ ISIS in Af-Pak Region ........................................................................................................36 5.1.1 Emergence ...............................................................................................................................36 Pak Institute for Conflict and Security Studies © All Rights Reserved Annual Security Assessment Report 2015 5.1.2 Levels of Associations with IS in Af-Pak Region........................................................................36 5.1.3 First Category ...........................................................................................................................37 5.1.4 Second Category ......................................................................................................................38 5.1.5 Third Category ..........................................................................................................................38 5.1.6 Groups Playing the Middle .......................................................................................................39 5.1.7 Sunni Sectarian Outfits .............................................................................................................39 5.1.8 Challenge to Afghan Taliban .....................................................................................................39 5.1.9 Setbacks to DAESH in the region ..............................................................................................40 6 Militant Groups Operating in/from Pakistan.........................................................................................42 6.1 Anti-Pakistan with Global Ambitions and Connections ................................................................42 6.1.1 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP): ............................................................................................42 6.1.2 Al-Qaeda ..................................................................................................................................43 6.1.3 DAESH or Islamic State .............................................................................................................43 6.1.4 East Turkistan Islamic Movement: ...........................................................................................44 6.1.5 Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: ............................................................................................44 6.2 Anti-State religious groups with local focus .................................................................................44 6.2.1 Lashkar-e-Islam: .......................................................................................................................44 6.2.2 Toheed wal Jihad ......................................................................................................................45 6.2.3 Lashkar-e-Khurasan ..................................................................................................................45 6.2.4 Ahrar-ul-Hind: ..........................................................................................................................45 6.3 Militant Groups based in FATA having objectives in Afghanistan, ................................................45 6.3.1 Haqqani Network: ....................................................................................................................45 6.3.2 Hafiz Gul Bahdur Group: ..........................................................................................................46 6.3.3 Mullah Nazir Group ..................................................................................................................46 6.4 India-Focused Groups...................................................................................................................46 6.4.1 Indigenous Kashmiri Groups ....................................................................................................47 6.4.2 Pakistan-Based groups fighting in Kashmir ..............................................................................47 6.5 Sectarian Militant Groups ............................................................................................................49 6.6 Secular Anti-State Groups ............................................................................................................50
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