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Russia and Egypt Opportunities in Bilateral Relations & the Limits of Cooperation

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Russia and Egypt Opportunities in Bilateral Relations & the Limits of Cooperation RUSSIA AND EGYPT OPPORTUNITIES IN BILATERAL RELATIONS & THE LIMITS OF COOPERATION January 2017 | Leonid ISSAEV ALSHARQ FORUM PAPER SERIES RUSSIA AND EGYPT Opportunities in Bilateral Relations & the Limits of Cooperation Al Sharq Forum takes no institutional or partisan positions on policy issues. The views and opinions expressed in this publication belong to author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of Al Sharq Forum. Copyright © 2016 by Al Sharq Forum All rights reserved Art design: İsra Ebubekir Nalbant Layout: Jawad Abazeed Printed in Turkey This publication may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form without prior per- mission from Al Sharq Form. If any extract from the publication is used, the author(s) and Al Sharq Forum should be credited. Address: Istanbul Vizyon Park A1 Plaza Floor:6 No:68 Postal Code: 34197 Bahçelievler/ Istanbul / Turkey Telephone: +902126031815 Fax: +902126031665 Email: [email protected] Content Executive Summary 5 Part I: Historical Background 6 Part II. Egypt after the coup: new opportunities for Russian-Egyptian cooperation 11 Part III. Challenges and Threats 19 In Lieu of an Afterword 21 Endnotes 27 About the Author 30 About Al Sharq Forum 31 Russia And Egypt: Opportunities In Bilateral Relations & The Limits Of Cooperation Research Paper Executive Summary ■ Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, ■ The current state of the Egyptian economy, relations between Egypt and Russia under- which is highly dependent on foreign loans, went a period of "stagnation" characterized as well as stagnation in the Russian econ- by a weak level of interaction, as well as the omy, do not make Russia the best possible decay of the old relations and forms of coop- economic partner for Egypt. eration. ■ Despite the trend towards an improvement ■ From the early 2000s onwards, the inter- in bilateral relations after 2013, relations are national and regional agenda became a cen- still vulnerable to threats including the un- tral part of bilateral relations between the stable situation in Egypt, the potential for two countries. That so many of the positions conflict begun by the recent ban of Muslim held by Moscow and Cairo on international Brotherhood in Egypt, and the volatile situa- issues have coincided has pushed them to tion in other countries bordering Egypt, par- deepen their cooperation. ticularly Libya. ■ The expansion of bilateral relations in the ■ Although Western countries condemned first decade of the 21st century was accompa- the military coup in Egypt in 2013, the Egyp- nied by the formation of legal, financial and tian elite, and primarily the military, have re- organizational structures and institutions of mained oriented towards the United States. cooperation that laid the basis for the devel- In this regard, Cairo’s rapprochement with opment of relations throughout the century. Moscow looks like an attempt to make Wash- ington "jealous". ■ The emergence of a new leadership in Egypt in 2013 after the overthrow of Moham- ■ Egypt, of course, is a desirable partner for med Morsi marked the beginning of a new Russia, and Moscow would like to use these stage in Russian-Egyptian relations. The ten- relations to help in its return to the Middle dency of Moscow to establish relations with East, but under current conditions this goal authoritarian regimes also experiencing diffi- seems unattainable. culties in relations with the West contributed to this factor. ■ Egypt's main trading partners are EU coun- tries, which account for 30.3 percent of the foreign trade turnover of Egypt, while Arab countries represent 22.9 percent, other Asian countries account for 19.6 percent, and the US accounts for 7.6 percent. In turn, Russia was only the seventh most important trade partner for Egypt in 2015, even below Turkey, whose relations with Cairo severely deterio- rated after the coup in 2013. ■ Military-technical cooperation that, for in- ternal reasons (both in Egypt and Russia) has reached its limits in terms of resources and capabilities, nonetheless continues to form the basis of Russian-Egyptian cooperation. 5 Russia And Egypt: Opportunities In Bilateral Relations & The Limits Of Cooperation Research Paper THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND THE ARAB beginning of the 1990s slowly moved toward Republic of Egypt are connected by a complex each other. A turn of Mikhail Gorbachev history of political and economic relations as leadership to cooperation with the United well as multifaceted humanitarian ties. The States and the end of the Cold War seem significance of Egypt to Russia is defined by its to have contributed to this. During the role as one of the leading political, economic “Perestroika” the national interests of the and cultural centers of the Middle East and Soviet Union oriented on the rapprochement North Africa, and its place within the vast with Western countries and Egypt did not Islamic world. Egypt holds sea, land and air contradict each other, but, on the contrary, pathways of great international importance. for most issues they were closely aligned. Cooperation with Egypt would help Russia to However, the complexity of “reformatting” of pursue its interests in the Middle East region, the international relations entire system, the as it is located close to Russia’s southern economic difficulties of both the Soviet Union borders in a conflict-prone region of enormous (Russia) and Egypt have complicated the geopolitical importance. Hence, interactions process of rapprochement and coordination between the two countries could contribute of positions. Therefore, a visit of President to the sustainability of Russia’s position in Hosni Mubarak to Moscow in 1990 was so the Islamic world, the creation of favorable colorless and the negotiations with Mikhail conditions for the development of Russian Gorbachev were actually inconclusive. regions with high Muslim populations, the The vector of foreign policy and economic preservation and strengthening of Russia’s interests of Egypt was turned to the West. interests in the world energy market and the strategically important Russian agricultural Egypt remains a center of political life in and high-tech production markets, as well the Middle East and North Africa, and has as aiding the exports of goods and services objectively retained its strategic importance within the framework of bilateral military- for Russia. But the Russian leadership has technical cooperation: for instance, in temporarily lost its interest in Egypt. The the field of aerospace. Relations between consequences of the “reset” in bilateral Russia and Egypt in the cultural sphere relations between Moscow and Cairo failing are extensive and significant: they are has been a noticeable reduction in trade connected through international tourism, and economic ties, which were already the existence of a Russian community1 in the experiencing a decline. Volumes of mutual country,2 and the interaction of Christian and trade rapidly decreased, from $1.2 billion at Muslim confessional groups. The effective the end of 1980 to $350 million in 1991. By implementation of the objectives and tasks the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, of Russian foreign policy is very important its participation in the implementation of for the coordination of the international socio-economic projects in Egypt had ceased activities of Russia and Egypt in the UN, the altogether.3 Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, the Arab League, the African Union, the Forum of Gas The decline in Russian-Arab and, in particular, Exporting Countries and other international Russian-Egyptian ties happened most organizations and forums. dramatically in the early 1990s. Its relative brevity and the dynamics of the recovery from Part I: Historical Background this nadir were largely predetermined by the The USSR (Russia) and Egypt, being earlier fundamental nature of the circumstances: actual allies in the Cold War, found themselves the historically-developed (since the mid- in the 1970s on the opposite sides, and to the 1950s) complex of humanitarian, cultural 6 Russia And Egypt: Opportunities In Bilateral Relations & The Limits Of Cooperation Research Paper and economic ties between the USSR and dialogue between Russia and the Arab- the countries of the Arab East and especially Muslim world, Egypt in particular. Cairo Egypt. had a policy of “positive neutrality” towards Chechnya. This can be reduced to the fact Cairo feared that NATO would begin that, given the international role of Egypt in to play an active role in resolving the the Islamic world on the one hand, and the Middle East conflict, pushing it into the desire of Cairo to develop friendly relations with Russia on the other, Egypt’s leadership background. But the economic weakness sought to contribute to the settlement of the of Russia, the dependence of Egypt on U.S. Chechen conflict. aid and the country’s volume of trade and economic relations with Western By the early 2000s, the international and countries determined its foreign policy. regional agenda had become a central part of Egypt was a welcome partner for Russia. the international contacts between the two But in certain circumstances, it could not countries. The international positions they be Russia's "gateway" to the Middle East. held in common pushed them to deepen their cooperation. Thus, in early 2000, when UN reform was actively discussed, Egypt sought In 1996, political relations intensified after an the support of Russia to become a permanent improvement in trade and economic ties. In member. Cooperation with Russia was no April 1996, Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny less important for Egypt to defend its existing Primakov visited Cairo and then declared that positions in the international and regional “Egypt can be sure that Russia will pursue a arena - for example, in the Mediterranean policy aimed at the continuity of all previous Union or within the transformation and decisions, and would do everything to ensure expansion of NATO. Cairo feared that NATO that… harmonized approaches were carried would begin to play an active role in resolving out and continued.”4 the Middle East conflict, pushing it into the background.
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