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University of New Mexico UNM Digital Repository Sociology ETDs Electronic Theses and Dissertations Summer 6-26-2020 RECRUITMENT TO, AND CONSEQUENCES OF, HIGH-RISK NON- VIOLENT ANTI-REGIME CAMPAIGNS IN AUTOCRATIC SOCIETIES: THE EGYPTIAN UPRISING OF 2011 Marian Azab University of New Mexico - Main Campus Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/soc_etds Part of the Sociology Commons Recommended Citation Azab, Marian. "RECRUITMENT TO, AND CONSEQUENCES OF, HIGH-RISK NON-VIOLENT ANTI-REGIME CAMPAIGNS IN AUTOCRATIC SOCIETIES: THE EGYPTIAN UPRISING OF 2011." (2020). https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/soc_etds/84 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Electronic Theses and Dissertations at UNM Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Sociology ETDs by an authorized administrator of UNM Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]. i Marian Azab Candidate Sociology Department This dissertation is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication: Approved by the Dissertation Committee: Dr. Sharon Erickson Nepstad , Chairperson Dr. Reuben Thomas Dr. Daniel Ragan Dr. Christopher Butler ii RECRUITMENT TO AND CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH-RISK NON-VIOLENT ANTI-REMIGE CAMPAIGNS IN AUTOCRATIC SOCIETIES: THE EGYPTIAN UPRISING by MARIAN AZAB B.A., Sociology, California State University, Long Beach, 2009 M.A., Social Justice & Human Rights, Arizona State University, 2011 DISSERTATION Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Sociology The University of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico July, 2020 iii DEDICATION To change seekers. Especially to those who tried, and failed, to create change. To those who were injured, captured and tortured, or even killed in failed revolutions. Thank you. The revolution is ongoing. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to thank all those who made this dissertation possible, starting with the Egyptian revolutionaries who took to the streets against all odds, and succeeded in doing the unimaginable and removing a military dictator who has been ruling Egypt for 30 years in just 18-days. I also want to thank the organizers and collectors of the Arab Democracy Barometer for creating a reliable and valid tool for studying the Arab world. I thank Dr. Nepstad, Dr. Thomas, Dr. Ragan, and Dr. Butler for being on my dissertation committee. I thank Dr. Nepstad for encouraging me to think about the bigger picture and theorize more about the mechanisms that created my findings. I also thank her for guiding me through the job search process, writing dozens of letters of recommendation, preparing me for Skype and campus interviews, listening to my adventures after each interview, helping me with the logistics of accepting my first job, and above all, never giving up on me or doubting my ability to land an academic job. I thank Dr. Thomas for helping me with my statistics for the past four years, for being so patient and clear in explaining the different techniques to me and answering my questions. I thank Dr. Butler for agreeing to be on my committee without hesitation on such short notice. I want to thank all of my mentors and teachers. I especially want to thank my first mentor, my first hero, my mom, Afaf, who taught me that reading is fun, politics affect our lives, and minorities should fight for their rights. Most importantly, she taught me that, even if it takes me longer to accomplish specific tasks, I will always get better with practice. She also introduced me to my first change seeking heroes, Jesus and his disciples. I love you, Mama. I thank my Sunday school teachers who introduced me to the importance of debating. I also want to thank my mentors in my community v organizing job in Egypt because they taught me the importance of empirical evidence and research. I thank my academic mentors and teachers, starting with my community college instructor, Ms. Theresa Lavarini, who introduced me to Marx, the holocaust, and live theater. I thank my CSULB mentor, Dr. Betsy McEneaney, for teaching the statistics course that convinced me that research is my passion during my Junior year, and for guiding me through my first empirical research project and conference presentation. I want to thank my mentors here at UNM, starting with Dr. Fiala, who accepted me into the program and always expressed kindness and interest in my academic progress. I also thank Dr. Santoro, who spent a tremendous amount of time mentoring me. He taught me almost all that I know about research, social movements, publishing, presenting, and teaching. He also allowed me to be his co-author. I am truly grateful to him for his exceptional work with me. I want to thank Dr. Nepstad who gave me constant support since I came to UNM. I appreciate her support during my rough start as an instructor. I am also thankful for her career development classes that taught me how to create an academic CV, teach, write my teaching philosophy, and navigate the publishing process. I want to thank Dr. Noah Painter-Davis for his support with my teaching and my job hunting, and for his continued kindness. I want to thank Dr. Christopher Lyons and Dr. Lisa Broidy, my graduate directors, for providing me with GA and TA assignments in the department for the past nine years. I want to thank Dorothy Esquivel for always advocating for my summer class, for answering all my questions about logistics, and for being kind. I also want to thank Dona Lewis-Aragon for guiding me through the logistics of my first years in the program. I want to thank my peer mentor, Dr. Elena Windsong, vi for always being helpful, kind, supportive, and understanding. I learned a lot about graduate school, teaching, and navigating academia from you, Elena. Finally, I want to thank the Social Sciences Department at Nevada State College for offering me a Lecturer in Sociology position. I thank them for being so kind and supportive during the interview process, and for giving me my first academic job. vii RECRUITMENT TO, AND CONSEQUENCES OF, HIGH-RISK NON-VIOLENT ANTI-REGIME CAMPAIGNS IN AUTOCRATIC SOCIETIES: THE EGYPTIAN UPRISING OF 2011 by Marian Azab B.A., Sociology, California State University, Long Beach, 2009 M.A., Social Justice and Human Rights, Arizona State University, 2011 Ph.D., Sociology, University of New Mexico, 2020 ABSTRACT This dissertation examines whether the Western-driven model of recruitment to, and consequences of, high-risk activism that McAdam introduced before the internet applies to non-violent anti-regime campaigns in autocratic contexts after the social media revolution. I use the case of the 18-day non-violent Egyptian uprising of 2011 to investigate these topics. I specifically utilize data from the Arab Democracy Barometer survey and other micro- and macro-level sources. I find that face-to-face ties are most effective in recruitment to such movements. Online networks create new forms of dissent, such as online activism. Moreover, online ties are especially useful in mobilizing women. I also uncover that transitional periods that follow such campaigns increase political participation but might decrease support for democracy. My results stress the importance of social media to the recruitment process in autocratic gender-restrictive contexts and add to our understanding of the transitional periods. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... x LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 1 Research Questions ............................................................................................................ 2 Theoretical Framework ..................................................................................................... 3 The Egyptian Uprising ...................................................................................................... 7 Why the Egyptian Uprising? ........................................................................................... 12 Data ................................................................................................................................. 14 Chapters Overview .......................................................................................................... 17 CHAPTER TWO: RECRUITMENT TO HIGH-RISK NON-VIOLENT CAMPAIGNS IN AUTOCRATIC CONTEXTS IN THE SOCIAL MEDIA ERA: STREET-PROTESTS AND ONLINE ACTIVISM ..................................................... 20 Recruitment to High-Risk Campaigns in Western Democracies ..................................... 23 Social Media and Mobilization ........................................................................................ 25 The Egyptian Uprising— A High-Risk Non-Violent Movement .................................... 27 Social Media, Face-To-Face Networks, and Recruitment to the Egyptian Uprising....... 28 Data and Methods ............................................................................................................ 30 Results .............................................................................................................................. 38 Discussion .......................................................................................................................

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