Redalyc.A Methodology for Assessing Poverty in Moldavia (Romania)

Revista de Geografía Norte Grande ISSN: 0379-8682 [email protected] Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Chile

Tudora, Daniel A methodology for assessing poverty in Moldavia (Romania) Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, núm. 57, mayo, 2014, pp. 193-211 Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Santiago, Chile

Available in: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=30030855013

How to cite Complete issue Scientific Information System More information about this article Network of Scientific Journals from Latin America, the Caribbean, Spain and Portugal Journal's homepage in redalyc.org Non-profit academic project, developed under the open access initiative Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, 57: 193-211 (2014)193 Artículos

A methodology for assessing poverty in Moldavia (Romania)1

Daniel Tudora2

ABSTRACT Community poverty, analyzed as the sum of several types of social and territorial deprivation, is the geographical expression of various processes and phenomena, commonly the object of sociological and economic studies. In this paper we per- formed a statistical compaction of a series of synthetic indicators, generating an indicator called the index of community development. The statistical validation of these results is accompanied by a spatial validation, which identiﬁ es the legitimate social structures in rural areas, emphasizing that obtaining valid results in the im- plementation of territorial development strategies depends more on the consisten- cy of the scientiﬁ c methods used to interpret statistical analysis. Key words: community poverty, regional disparities, statistical methods.

RESUMEN La pobreza comunitaria, analizada como la suma de varios tipos de privación social y territorial, es la expresión geográfi ca de distintos procesos y fenómenos, y comúnmente es objeto de estudios sociológicos y económicos. En el presente estudio se realizó la condensación estadística de una serie de variables primarias, generándose un indicador sintético, superior desde el punto de vista informativo, que se denomina índice del desarrollo comunitario. La validación estadística de los resultados está acompañada por una validación espacial, identifi cando el com- portamiento de estructuras sociales legítimas en áreas rurales, destacando que la obtención de resultados válidos en la implementación de estrategias de desarrollo territorial dependen más de la consistencia de los métodos científi cos utilizados que de interpretaciones estadísticas certeras. Palabras clave: Pobreza comunitaria, disparidades regionales, métodos estadísti- cos.

1 Artículo recibido el 2 de diciembre de 2011, acep- 2 Departamento de Geografía, Universidad Alexandru tado el 24 de julio de 2012 y corregido el 28 de Ioan Cuza (Rumania). junio de 2013. E-mail: [email protected] 194 R EVISTA DE GEOGRAFÍA NORTE GRANDE

From a classic perspective, sciences such and the corresponding indices have a com- as economy and sometimes sociology ana- posite structure. They get closer to the concept lyze poverty based on information regarding of standard of life without eluding that of population’s income and consumption levels. standard of living: the multidimensional pov- Beyond the numerous discussions on how erty index, indices adjusted to the inequality we should accurately define poverty, most index, or the index of basic unsatisfi ed needs sources point out the data regarding income (the latter is frequently used in Latin America). sources as the starting point in the study of the phenomenon (Nolan & Whelan, 2007; The concerns for the spatial dimensions Atkinson, 2002). of poverty are even more recent, and the geographic analysis on the phenomenon is, most By taking into account the exhaustive of the times, integrated in economic or socio- character of surveys collecting data on in- logic studies. These studies derive from the come to various degrees, both economy and need to explain the emergence of localized sociology have sought to identify statistic forms of poverty, sometimes at the initiative thresholds to classify the population ac- of UN-affi liated structures, in their intention cording to its fi nancial or even by its social to outline the profi les of poverty (Lok-Desal- possibilities. Two such thresholds are most lien, 2004). Such an example is rural poverty, often accepted in the literature: the absolute which aims to explain the particularities of poverty threshold, determined depending on the widest diffused type of poverty. Hence, the minimum expenditures necessary for the the studies following the processes, causes normal functioning of the individual in the and effects of the occurrences when poverty society (Townsend & Gordon, 1991; Jansson, associates with the rural setting are present in 2000) and the relative poverty threshold (Sen, all specialized schools in the world (Jazairy et 1983). Sen believes that poverty should be al., 1995). analyzed from the perspective of the individual’s society, thus using statistic distances from The development of data computation certain central values, among which the most methods allowed modern geography to de- common is the median income (Townsend, velop its own analysis methods for poverty 1979; Mack & Lansley, 1985). repartition. For geography, the map turns from a simple visualisation solution for statistic The more recent forms of poverty analysis information into a research method; this dis- draw attention to the fact that the fi eld is not cipline is called spatial analysis. By focusing suffi ciently covered and they seek to establish on the study of distances, contiguity, disconti- more complex approaches. The delimitation nuities and accessibility, spatial analysis pro- of poverty classes according to the income poses several study methods for the reparti- levels is currently labelled as reductionist due tion of poverty, among which the best-known to the fact that it tends to ignore the presence are circumscribed by the centre-periphery of other needs, which are considered vital for models, as well as by the spatial diffusion of the vertical mobility of the individual. Among innovation and by vicinity models, each of these, the feeling of security, the freedom them with several analysis techniques, such of speech, the access to education and the as spatial autocorrelation, geographic weight- health care system, to a natural health-pro- ed regression and spatial interaction (Anselin, moting environment, etc., were designated 2005). by the Indian economist Amartya Sen as commodities. Subsequently, the regarding these The spatial sciences benefi t from the ad- methods has greatly developed, thus complet- vantage of integrating the social and econom- ing various niches in the study of poverty or ic information to the horizontal architecture, attempting to create synthetic indicators with thus assimilating the individuals to strictly a vast coverage of the phenomenon: child- localized human groups, but subtly described hood poverty (Minujin, 2006), female poverty through topologic indicators, such as relays, (Daly, 1989), relative poverty (Smeeding & point-described masses and volumes, infor- O’Higgins, 1990). mation networks, and emission and reception relations described through lines, surfaces, From this epistemological perspective, capitals and patrimonies described through poverty becomes a multidimensional theme polygons. A METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING POVERTY IN MOLDAVIA (ROMANIA) 195

Within these concrete reference points, Methodology the geographer has the necessary skills to discriminate certain inequalities generated Methodologically speaking, the social by society through repetitiveness/self-re- state of the Moldavian3 rural population is generation, flexibility/ rigidity, simplicity/ structured on four assessment levels, progres- complexity, thus mixing methods and models sively elaborated, with a bottom-up type of from economy, sociology, history, which he integration: integrates in a synergic matter in a volume of map-ready information called spatial capital. 1. Identifying the life quality compart- The absence/lack of spatial capital produces ments, with concrete relevance for the a geographic species of underdevelopment socio-economic inspection of rural com- called community poverty. munities. 2. Elaborating partial indicators, applied to The difference between community pov- each segment of life quality, analysing erty and the other types of poverty comes, the composition of low redundancy sim- fi rst, from the spatial dimension ascribed by ple parameters. geography to the phenomenon. In this case, 3. The synthesis of partial indicators statistic individuals are no longer social, but through means of statistical integration, they become topologic. The person (or fami- in order to obtain a general index of ly) is replaced by locality, which, through its community development, capable of position from certain commodities/needs, will emitting classifi cations/hierarchies. personify the individual needs within those of 4. Extracting, from the deductive plan (ob- the social-spatial group. tained through modelling), the spatial expression mandatory character of rural The hypotheses of this study come from communities, with the purpose of under- the diffi culties of circumscribing the indica- standing the ameliorative/ degenerative tors that analyze the problems of rural com- fi elds of rural societies in crisis. munity underdevelopment, regardless of the nature of approach – economical, sociologi- The community development index cal, or geographical. The community underdevelopment anal- The relations inter-particularized by terri- ysis for the Moldavian rural settlements starts torial statistical individuals make classifi ca- from the premise enounced in the following tions depending on multi-criteria hierarchies lines. The statistical “noise” effect obtained very difficult, the main impediments being when elaborating final typologies or big the following: differences between the results based on model-selected explanatory variables and the - The use of alternative synthetic indicators results based on adjusting the model by in- leads to para-mathematical, disputable troducing new exogenous variables changing conventions, in which multiple origin ex- the behaviour of the endogenous variable, are planatory variables are used to the same created because the initial variables are ran- degree for the result, leading to arbitrary domly selected. conclusions (Gadrey, 2002). - The successive weighing of a partial underdevelopment indicator frequently uses incomplete, subjective statistical methods that elude, by using scores, the real ener- 3 Moldavia is one of the three great historical prov- gies between variables. inces of Romania, located in the northeast of the country. Since 1940 the province is divided in two - The application of multivariate analy- different political structures: eastern region became sis methods not taking into account the part of the USSR (after 1991 proclaimed its indepen- essential particularity of territorial data dence, becoming the Republic of Moldavia) while series, which is retaining a large amount the western half remains part of Romania. The study covers only that Moldavian territory which is now of unexplained information, invisible if part of Romania, the region encompassing eight we simply correlate the variables or if we counties with a total area of 46,000 Km² and a pop- relate them to an average profi le. ulation totaling 4,700,000 inhabitants. 196 R EVISTA DE GEOGRAFÍA NORTE GRANDE

It is true that the abovementioned defi - the gravity model (Pumain, 2001); and the ciencies are solicited by the requirements centre-periphery model (Figure N° 1). of geometrical statistics, using highly independent raw variables, when explaining a The advantage of using a synthesis of process or a socio-economic phenomenon, these models is demonstrated by the necessity considering that the relevance of fi nal clas- to distinguish, for each of the 2.944 localities sifications is increased when using simple within the study, two essential categories of modalities. Nonetheless, the realities individ- relationships, transformed into potential ac- ualizing geographic processes contradict this cessibilities: model. - The emissivity potential of a locality will A simple indicator, which evolves, ap- include variables emphasizing on the ne- parently, as an elementary variable, such as cessity of a market for those needs, may illiteracy, hides geo-demographic, socio-eco- be present in that locality or not. These nomic explanations of gender inequalities or variables are set at the level of fraction’s of differences among ethnic and confessional denominator (number of students between minorities. At the same time as this statistical 7 and 11 for primary school education disagreement, elaborating typologies based services; number of aged people for sani- on multiple coagulations of simple variables tary services; number of persons trained in will have a redundancy effect, meaning that the primary sector for the agro-alimentary the interpreter will include involuntarily and commercial services, etc.) repetitively the same variable. This is why it is - The attractiveness potential of a locality better for the statistical analysis of territorial will include variables emphasizing on data to work with derived indicators, com- the necessity of a clientele to satisfy the prising several variables, which can extract offer. These variables are set at the level their own typologies, with less fi nal variables, of fraction’s numerator (number of teach- but higher explanatory and conclusive effect. ers; number of medical staff; number of persons left abroad; number of active When constructing the rural community companies in sectors specifi c to the rural development index, we took into account six development, correlated with diversity composite indicators, each one responsible variables; the number of employees in the with identifying the functioning of a cer- banking system, etc.). tain component within the rural settlement system. These indicators are the following: For both forms of potential we will use, educational fund component; vital capability for the denominator, distances-time calculated of rural communities’ component; labour from the emitting centre toward the closest at- force inclusion component; effective use of tractive centre, for each index and sub-index, agricultural real estate component; human so that, eventually, form the two types of poten- habitat quality component; and the transac- tial accessibilities – attractiveness and emissivi- tional component of fi nancial-banking service ty –, an interaction potential between the local- system. ity needing serving functions and the locality benefi ting from those functions will result. Considered from the perspective of welfare geography (Rawls, 1971; Esping-Andersen, In order to avoid the statistical-mathe- 1990), the analysis is based upon nomothetic matical deformations generated by the strict interpretation methods, with a focus upon the geographic inclusion of administrative-terri- community poverty concept, seen as a ma- torial units, we will use trans-scalar methods jor defi ciency state in ensuring several types through which the same territorial element of accessibility/commodities (Amartya Sen, will dispose, subsequently, of several accessi- 1999). bility indices, depending on the complexity of relations induced by the quality and quantity The methods used to identify the afore- between necessity and service (commodity). mentioned deficiencies belong to certain models specific to geography: the central In this sense, we will respect the geo- place model; the graph model (Dupuy, 1991); graphic transitivity principle: a rural locality A METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING POVERTY IN MOLDAVIA (ROMANIA) 197

Figure N° 1 Accessibility calculation methods

Source: author unfavourably placed far from the centre of the Rello, 20035; Putman, 1993; Coleman, 1988); commune will ignore these relations if it is fa- it is calculated using the following formula: vourably located in relation to a town within the higher rank. Aed=Aep+AepAeg+AegAes+AesAeu,

In order to understand the way we have Where: Aed represents the potential ac- elaborated the six partial indicators4 of the cessibility to education; Aep represents the community development index, we will pres- population’s accessibility to primary educa- ent the mathematical expressions that have tional services; Aeg is the accessibility to sec- constituted the grounds for these indicators ondary school services; Aes is the accessibil- and of the construction of speciﬁ c sub-indi- ity to high-schools services; Aeu is the index cators: of general accessibility to higher education services. Index of the interaction potential between the population and the In order to understand the way we have educational services elaborated the partial indicators, we will present the formula used to calculate the ac- This index presents the assessment of cessibility to primary educational services: social capital (Azocar et al., 2003; Flores &

5 The authors attribute to the notion of social capital 4 All the values of the accessibility indices represent the phrase “social network” seen as an ensemble of coefficients calculated for each locality (with no cultural relations originating from the ﬂ exibility of measurement unit). expressing human resources in the territory. 198 R EVISTA DE GEOGRAFÍA NORTE GRANDE

Aep=Pcm.Nes.NpD3.N7–10, settlements with municipal hospitals. Asj – population’s accessibility to settlements with Where: Pcm represents the percentage departmental hospitals; Asc – population’s value of the high-school and college gradu- accessibility to settlements with urban-level ates from the total employable population. ultra-specialized hospitals. The purpose of this coeffi cient is to identify the fund of education created, maintained To calculate the partial indices, we have or attracted, while also assessing the com- used calculation principles similar to those munity’s possibilities to ensure educational presented within the chapter on educational services; Nes is the number of students in accessibility. This is why, as model, we have the locality at the time of the study, testing given the example of the index for the ac- the community’s capacity to regenerate cessibility to elementary (proximal) sanitary the educational fund; Np is the number of services: teachers serving the population within the elementary education process; it is a symbol Ase=PsP0–20d3Pv, where: of the offer and it is always calculated with reference to the locality with the nearest ele- Ps is the active population in the sanitary mentary school; D (in minutes) calculates the sector; PsP0 represents the number of persons distance/time between the locality emitting aged between 0 and 20; Pv represents the the request and the one providing the edu- number of persons over 65; d represents the cational services. The cube exponent within distance-time (displacement minutes) to the the formula is explained by the fact that nearest locality providing elementary sanitary spatial roughness in the case of elementary services. education services is higher than for higher education levels. At the same time, it proves Index of the agricultural exploitation the importance given to this level of educa- profi t tional polarization, considered essential for the community’s capacity to develop complex This index calculates the probability for a professional structures; N7–10 represents the rural community to have additional incomes number of children 7 to 11 years old; its use by effectively using the agricultural exploita- as an absolute value is explained through tions depending on the differentiated acces- the necessity to weigh the absolute values sibility to the market of agricultural products used for the numerator of the formula. The (Chiran, 2004) ratio between this number and the number of students can help identify the size of school Ief= Sl+ Sc2(Pa+1)+Vcom–K Dt, where: abandonment associated to a low level of educational integration within a given com- Ief represents the index of agricultural munity. exploitation effectiveness; Sl is the number of employees in the locality, and is used in Index of the interaction potential order to determine the buying capacity of the between the population and the sanitary community; Sc is the number of employees in services the polarizing centre; Pa represents the number of individuals active in agriculture. Vcom As=Ase+AseAsu+AsuAso+AsoAsm+AsmAsj,+ is the community’s income from agriculture, AsjAsc, expressed in RON (the Romanian currency unit); K is a constant which equals with the Where: Ase – population’s potential ac- product between the annual average number cessibility to settlements providing elemen- of trips effectuated by an agricultural commu- tary services – we have included here all nity, evaluated at 52, meaning the number of the localities with a medical cabinet or a weeks within a year, and the cost of a round pharmacy; Asu – population’s accessibility trip for one minute distance-time, evaluated to settlements with medical-social units; Aso at 0.6 lei. Dt is the distance-time between – population’s accessibility to settlements the locality benefi ting from the services and with urban-level hospitals, and also poly- the one providing these services and it is ex- clinics; Asm – population’s accessibility to pressed in minutes. A METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING POVERTY IN MOLDAVIA (ROMANIA) 199

The community’s income from agriculture The index of technical-urbanistic habitat is an essential component of the index; it is comfort calculated according to the following mathematical expression: The sub-indices used may be divided into two categories: Vcom=Va+Vz+Vfs, where: 1. Indices of habitation density; Vcom – total income from exploitation pro- 2. Indices of habitat technical comfort. duction (lei); Va – income from agronomy-related activities(lei); Vz – income from stock The indices of habitation density aim to raising-related activities(lei); Vfs is a special delimitate the habitation intensity within the component assessing the surplus of fodder same space, starting from three statistical production at the community level, liable to variables: number of inhabitants for each being altered at the community level, obtain- household; number of households; and, of ing further system incomes(lei). course, number of occupied households. The measurement unit of this indicator is the Index of the interaction potential between number of conventional persons/household. the population and the labour market The number of conventional individuals increases by the number of families involved The following formula is used: in cohabitation; the increase in the number of families will introduce an additional hab- Afmr=Dl+Apl+AplApz+Apmr+Apr/5 itation discomfort, even if the number of persons does not modify, because the promis- where: Afmr – accessibility to the polariz- cuity hazard increases. It is presented through ing centres of labour force in rural-specifi c the following formula: fi elds; Dl – local service index; Apl – accessibility to local polarizing centres of labour Idl=(Nf+Np)/Nl, where: force; Apz – accessibility to regional polarizing centres of labour force; Apmg – accessi- Idl – inhabitation density index; Nl – total bility to the labour market offered by depart- number of households; Ng – total number of mental centres. Apr – accessibility to regional families; Np – total number of persons. polarizing centres. In order to understand the way we have The indices of habitat technical comfort elaborated the partial indicators, the formula will take into account fi ve types of facilities: used to calculate the accessibility to the local cold water supply; hot water supply; electrici- polarization centres of labour force is pre- ty and gas; sewer system. sented here: All these categories of facilities are con- Apl=Psl(Pst+Pt)+Ps1l (P Sl+PT) 2.d, where: sidered as participating, to different extents, in determining the development level of a psl – number of employees in the po- community. Thus, the presence of electricity, larized locality, carrying on their activity though vital for the study of absolute pov- in place of residence; pst – total number of erty, is less important when characterizing employees in the polarized locality; pt – total the community poverty, as it is a ubiquitous population of the polarized settlement; PT – good, only levelling certain states when given total population of the polarizing settlement. the same proportion of the result. We have PSl – employed population in the polarizing weighed the other indicators according to the settlement; Ps1l – population in the polarized reverse of their frequency; the rarer a service, locality activating outside the locality; d – the more the urban character brought to the distance-time, expressed in minutes, between respective locality: the polarizing and the polarized locality.

Ict=0,4.1c+0,3.1g+0,2.1ac+0,1.la 200 R EVISTA DE GEOGRAFÍA NORTE GRANDE

6 where: Ict – Index of habitat technical benefi t societies; savings banks ); Absl – pop- comfort; Ic – households with sewer system ulation’s accessibility to supra-local polariza- (% of the total households); Ig – households tion banking services; Abmun – population’s with gas supply (% of the total households); accessibility to municipal centres of the fi - Iac – households with hot water supply (% of nancial-banking centres; Abjud – population’s the total households); Ia – households with accessibility to departmental polarization drinking water supply (% of the total house- centres of the fi nancial-banking centres. holds). Abl=Stsup+Ns(Nub+Dub)ld1+d+(ld2+D), where: In order to obtain the urbanistic index, the ratio between the index of habitat tech- Abl – accessibility to local banking ser- nical comfort – directly proportional to the vices; Stsup – active occupied population in development level of the communities –, the upper tertiary of the polarizing locality; and the index of habitation density, reversely Ns – number of persons reviewed as left proportional to the development level of the abroad at the last census available (2002); communities will be calculated. Finally, this Nub – number of banking units in the polar- index is added, as previously mentioned, with izing locality. Dub – diversity of banking units the index of electricity presence, but the latter in the serving locality, calculated as the sum must be related to the number of inhabitants between the number of citizens acting on the in the same village, thus being sub-unitary fi nancial-banking market of a certain locality; and insignifi cant for the positions in the up- ld1 – index of the occupied population’s de- per part of the classifi cation, but decisive for pendence of the polarized locality. ld2 – index the localities where all four facilities are ab- of the occupied population’s dependence sent, thus very important in differentiating the for the whole of the polarized localities by lower part of the classifi cation. the centre providing the financial-banking services. D – sum of the distances between The synthesis of the two categories of the polarized localities and the locality pro- habitat indices is elaborated through the fol- viding local fi nancial-banking services; it is lowing formula: expressed in minutes.

Ie=Ictldl+li Methods of standardization

Where: Ie – the index of technical-urban- and multi-criteria hierarchy istic habitat comfort; Ict – the index of habitat order for partial indices of a technical comfort; Idl – the index of habitation human community social state density; Iel – the index of electricity in the houses. The multi-criteria hierarchy order methods are used for the territorial profi le studies, be- Index of the interaction potential ing useful not only to elaborate regional clas- between the population and the sifi cations, but also to compare the territorial fi nancial-banking services unit to the average level in order to measure the inequalities among the units (Nelea Mi- This index estimates the integration de- hai, 2005). gree of rural communities in the system of financial markets (Henriquez et al., 2007; In a world where attention is a very rare Chaves, et al., 2001); it is calculated accord- resource, information becomes a pricey prod- ing to the following formula: uct as it may distract our attention from the

Afb=Abl+Absl+Abmun+Abjud, where:

6 Similar classiﬁ cations are adaptable to other coun- A fb – general accessibility to finan- tries in Europe or Latin America, as the covering cial-banking services; Abl – accessibility to functions of the financial-banking services are local banking services (including the working known as revitalizing for the isolated rural econo- points of national banking societies or mutual mies (Delalande & Paquette, 2007). A METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING POVERTY IN MOLDAVIA (ROMANIA) 201

important to the non-important things (Simon, between variables and depending upon the 1997). analysis on the main components.

Using six synthetic indicators for which The rank sum method refers to attributing we used 55 variables creates many diffi culties ranks to each administrative-territorial unit, in the intention of getting a single fi nal index successively, depending on the hierarchy cre- with maximum probability of an equidistant ated by each indicator to take into account characterization of Moldavian rural settle- during the analysis. Consequently, the unit ments. with a maximum qualitative performance is ranked 1, with the following next locali- In this sense, we had to use statistical ties getting progressively higher ranks, with modelling methods such as the factorial anal- the highest rank being attributed to the unit ysis, which, by using multivariate exploration which has the minimum qualitative level techniques, allows the graphic extraction of for each variable (n = number of units for similarities among the statistical strings, be- the researched unit). By adding up the ranks ing also capable to quantify the correlation corresponding to each territorial unit, we get degree among several factors, apparently in- a score. The lowest scoring territorial unit is dependent. the most performing from all the perspectives included within the multi-criteria analysis and The best-known statistical methods of gets the fi nal rank as the score increases, and organizing strings into compact groups, with the fi nal rank 1. As the score increases, the higher explanatory capacity, are the ascen- fi nal rank also progresses, until rank n attribut- dant hierarchical classifi cation, the analysis ed to the territorial unit with the highest score. based on the main components, and the rank sum method. The rank sum method presents the advantage of an easy and rapid application, provid- Multivariate analysis method – ing generally correct information regarding Hierarchical classifi cation the classifi cation of administrative-territorial units. Moreover, the results can be valorised Also named tree classifi cation or aggre- in the territorial planning researches based gation classifi cation, its purpose is to obtain upon non-parametric methods to measure typologies created depending on independent the intensity of the relations among variables variables, by successively dividing individu- (Goschin & Pârlog, 2004). als belonging to a statistical population into classes created through a successive fusion, The shortcomings of this method are relat- so that two subjects initially belonging to two ed to the double levelling of the differences clusters different subgroups ( ) will be united among the territorial-administrative units. The by an increase in the precision level within real gap being replaced with an arithmetic common subgroups7. progression with rate 1: the first levelling takes place when attributing ranks for each of The ascendant classifi cation method will the characteristics within the study, and the not be used as the fi nal method to establish second levelling takes place when replacing the community development hierarchy of the the score with the fi nal rank string. That is Moldavian localities, but elaborating it will how we lose a lot of the information quality, be essential in determining the inter-class/ the various distances among successive units intra-class differences within the fi nal typolo- being systematically replaced with the differ- gy realized through the exploratory statistical ence (1) among successive ranks. analysis based upon multiple correlations Factorial analysis and proportions depending on the correlation means within an exploratory statistical analysis 7 For more details regarding the factorial analysis, see Analiza factorială a fenomenelor social-economice According to the main components analy- în profi l regional, Voineagu & Furtuna, 2002. sis, we concluded that the six direct (primary) 202 R EVISTA DE GEOGRAFÍA NORTE GRANDE

Figure N° 2 a. Convergent correlations involving a pos- Social state typology of the Moldavian rural itive evolution, the increase in a variable population being directly proportional with the increase in the other. Such correlations are established among the educational services index, the technical-urbanistic household index, the labour force index, and the fi - nancial-banking index, with the strongest correlation between the technical-urbanistic index and the fi nancial-banking index. The closest correlation is that between the technical-urbanistic index and the financial-banking accessibility index. b. Quadrature correlations, in fact non-correlations. c. Divergent correlations involving a re- versed dependence, the increase in a variable being dependent upon the decrease in the other. Such a correlation, even though at the limit of non-correlation, may be observed between the sanitary accessibility factor and the exploitation profi t factor. Source: author. 2. What is the proportion of each variable in variables that we have previously presented determining the four main components of may be reduced to 4 factors ensuring 90% the analysis? of the explanation for the whole dispersion. Taking over from the connection matrix the In order to emphasize the unequal par- values of each factor, we could answer to two ticipation of primary (expressed) variables in questions: creating the community development index we will initially use an exploratory statistical 1. What is the correlation between the pri- analysis with the purpose of determining the mary variables? importance of each variable depending on the correlation between them. For example, by observing the way in which the six variables were loaded upon fac- The method may be synthetically ex- tor 1 and factor 2, we saw 3 types of depen- pressed according to a matrix with the cor- dencies between the variables (Table N° 1): relograms between the six partial indices taken two by two (Figure N° 3). Table N° 1 The strongest connections are emphasized Rotated Component Matrix between the accessibility to fi nancial-bank- Component ing services and the urbanistic quality of the 1234 habitat (the very strong relation between the Education .194 .882 .086 .108 two variables is explained by the fact that both of them hide in the value of indices, the Financial-banking .926 .070 .086 .064 incomes from the international migration of Technical-Urbanistic .861 .293 .086 .050 labour force). Agriculture Exploi- .082 -.008 .061 .985 The lowest values for the slope of the re- tation gression line equation are those between the Labour Market .118 .257 .942 .081 variables of sanitary accessibility and agrarian exploitations profit, which makes the two Sanitary Services .148 .748 .337 -.150 variables less explanatory. This conclusion A METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING POVERTY IN MOLDAVIA (ROMANIA) 203

Figure N° 3 Going back to the connection matrix The correlation between the community extracted through the main components development indices. Main components analysis, during the next phase we should analysis eliminate the two variables as insigniﬁ cant in explaining total dispersion.

Figure N° 4 Community development index in Moldavia Classiﬁ cation depending on the proportions of correlation means between the variables

Source: author becomes debatable if analyzed from a strictly geographic perspective, their low relevance being induced by the ubiquity of its parameters. Geo-demographic aspects such as population ageing or those regarding the agrarian density are substantial to all the components Source: author of the rural settlement system8. The shortcoming of such a method is giv- Those correlations may be transposed ac- en by the stochastic character of separating cording to a mathematical formula, and then the variables with high explanatory value mapped (Figure N° 4): from those with low explanatory value, losing two of the primary variables. Idc=0.220.led+0.272.lfb+0.237.lte+0.108. lpea+0.190.lpfm+0.045.lss Moreover, the geographic reality shows that, unlike geometrical statistics, territorial Where: Idc – Community Development data series are emphasized by inferential rela- index; led – Educational services index; lfb – tions in which the variables analyzed are in a Financial-banking index; lte – Technical-urban- permanent synergic evolution. istic index; lpea – Agrarian exploitation profi t index; lpfm – Labour force market index; lss – If this is validated by the specifi c of geo- Sanitary services index. graphic statistical information, then, within the territorial analysis, the factors that seem the least explanatory will become, because of their independence compared to other variables, the most important parameters for the fi nal value of the community development index. 8 The statistical-mathematical methods cannot identify these invisible/subtle relations, hiding beyond the Under these circumstances, we prefer to quantitative interface of the primary variables; the disadvantages are caused by an essential fl ow of ter- use the connection matrix only in order to ex- ritorial database collecting –statistical imputation. tract the magnitude with which the variables 204 R EVISTA DE GEOGRAFÍA NORTE GRANDE

are loaded on each factor, thus recuperating is very low when operating with territorial the primary variables. The difference is that databases, as most of the explanatory in- each of them will be multiplied through a formation should be included in the par- coefﬁ cient indicating the explanatory value tial indicators. of the variable in the whole of the dispersion. - There is a high probability to arrive to wrong conclusions using the factorial The equation of the community develop- analysis method when the interpretation is ment index becomes the following: rigid, according to geometrical statistics; for the seemingly independent geographic l dc=13.57.l ed+13.56.l fb+13.57.l te+16.15. data series, they are able to structure most lpea+16.47.lpfm+16.67.lss of the explanatory information.

Figure N° 5 The ﬁ nal purpose of the spatial analysis Typology of Moldavian settlements depending based upon the intra-regional differences of on the community development index the main indicators regarding the socio-eco- (classiﬁ cation based on rank ordinal values) nomic population state is the creation of a spatial expression model for the rural communities within the areas studied. This model should also be applicable in case of other areas with average or high proportions of the stable population within the rural environment (Figure N° 6).

When naming the classes, we took into account the evolving/non-evolving tenden- cies within the categories of villages. We studied the positions of the localities within the settlement system and, especially, the interdependence/subordination relations with the urban settlement system, making the proper associations to the consecrated terminology of the centre-periphery model. (the French geographer Alain Reynaud, from the geographical school of Reims, explains, in the book Société, espace et justice: inégalités Source: author régionales et justice socio-spatiale - 1981, the main categories of peripheries and the After a comparative analysis of the four relations between them and the dominant methods, we see a complete similarity be- centre: the dominated periphery – provider tween the results, each interpretation repeat- of raw materials and population, benefi ting ing the same territorial cleaving between the from tourist fl ows; the integrated periphery areas with high community development – in advanced inter-relations with the centre indices, dependent upon the presence of ur- and benefi ting from two-direction fl ows, the ban areas or major road communication axes, associated periphery – advantaged by capital and areas with low community development and innovation transfers, semi-isolated periph- indices. They are specifi c to isolate or weakly ery – witness of modernizing autarchic so- polarized territorial structures, depending on cio-economic systems; the neglected periph- the urban type of functions. ery – developing one-direction fl ows towards the periphery, the most important being the The repetitive character of the fi nal results/ population fl ows. Even though the compari- typologies, regardless of the method used, son was initially made for the macro-regional leads to the following conclusions: scale, we may extrapolate the discourse to the infra-regional scale, taking into account - The importance of modelling and statisti- the similarities discovered between the class- cal weighing methods for partial variables es identified by hierarchy and this model. A METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING POVERTY IN MOLDAVIA (ROMANIA) 205

Nevertheless, we underline that we will try to acter of such an expression: all peripheries avoid the punctual use of the term dominated are dominated). periphery, considering the tautological char-

Figure N° 6 Model of Moldavian peripheral territorial structures

Source: author

Proximal rural spaces, as: flows of people, expressed through oscillatory mobility (for work and studies), belonging to integrated shown by a positive deviation from the av- peripheries erage regional profi le of the accessibility to labour market factor; The very high values of the community - The second category of fl ows is that of the development index claim a close correlation exportation of qualified personnel from with the presence of the urban element, as the urban towards the rural environment: well as with the high rank communication didactic staff, sanitary, administrative staff, ways (European and national roads). etc.; - The rural-rural flows are modest, but Cautiousness is recommended when they can punctually ensure an important using the term integrated periphery, as the proportion of the whole of interactions intra-class differentiations are significant among the corresponding elements, fi rst enough, but there are also numerous similari- in case of localities competing territori- ties as regards the fl ow orientation: ally, the positions within the hierarchy of the settlement system being altered cir- - The most obvious are channelled from the cumstantially. rural towards the urban environment, such 206 R EVISTA DE GEOGRAFÍA NORTE GRANDE

Intermediary rural spaces, tions preceded and/or followed by involution phases within the locality network makes belonging to associated them very imprecise in being associated with peripheries a certain type of periphery. Mainly coming from the mass of deep rural or restructured In order to characterize this category, it is around incipient administrative functions, essential to understand the fact that the notion vulnerable to change and indecisive between of intermediary rural space does not equal the the territorial force lines, the settlements terminological concept of espaces entre-deux. within the sliding rural spaces become the The latter are defi ned as complex spaces situat- neuralgic points within the settlement system ed at the crossroad of infl uence areas or in ar- or the coherence-providing key-elements. ticulation points of multi-scalar dynamics, some- Nevertheless, they can also bring instability times split, other times mixed; they are places to the unequal and composite fuselage of the where there are, at the same time, tensions and centre-periphery model. transformations, and they become, concomi- tantly, split and mediating places (Pellen, 2009). The fl ows particularizing such territorial structures are equally fl uctuant, with mainly The flows generated by these localities downstream relations: defi nitive population are mainly oriented towards the settlements fl ows; agrarian product fl ows; and low-fre- within the upper hierarchy level, both materi- quency processed product fl ows. al and person fl ows (agrarian products, especially, and fi nal products specifi c to industries The relations with the settlements within with low added value and without many the lower levels are modest, unclear, marking expenses on improving the human capital). At the incapacity of these localities to make a the same time, we do not exclude the interac- statement in the territory. Thus, the upstream tions with upstream elements, as they provide fl ows elude this hierarchy threshold, looking them average qualifi ed personnel, or some- for a direct relation with the centre. times they represent diffusion relays of innovation from the upper-level urban localities. Rural spaces in crisis, belonging to autarchic semi- Reversely, these settlements benefi t from the upper qualifi ed personnel coming from isolated peripheries urban settlements or even from localities belonging to associated peripheries. The coagulant element of these localities is the location along territorial fraction lines. They are not subordinated to the latter; The splits generating the aforementioned structures have complex geneses: natural the most common relations are horizontal, – the presence of mountainous or hydro- and the differentiations depend on the in- graphical barriers, socio-cultural, ethnic and teraction potential with the system of large confessional segregations, as well as polit- urban settlements. ical-administrative, such as the localisation Their localisation within the settlement in border areas or at departmental limits, all system is marked by specifi c average-upper of which are frequently associated to a low accessibilities; the ideal is represented by quality of the road infrastructure. territorial structures at the limit of urban infl uence areas, where the space ensemble As regards the structure of the fl ows, the coordinated by the city loses its intensity. permanent working population flows are Intersection positions with the role of coordi- predominant; this feature deteriorates the nating the fl ows towards the basic level of the structure on age groups, crystallizing an extra locality network are not avoided. factor of social, economic, and cultural low- ering. Gliding rural spaces The flows from the centre are rare and The primordial particularity of these set- ineffective (Arenas et al., 1999). They rarely tlements is dualism. The discontinuous evolu- become sustainable, the main shortcoming A METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING POVERTY IN MOLDAVIA (ROMANIA) 207

being the interaction outage (e.g., fl ows gen- school education; sanitary dispensary and erated by the qualifi ed personnel within the pharmacy; markets for agrarian products, educational/sanitary system or those generat- etc.). The relation with the other elements ed in order to collect agrarian products, etc.). within the settlement system is totally unequal (great distance, sometimes over 30 Marginalized and with stiff territorial km to the closest city); the geo-demograph- connections, peripheral in comparison to the ic structures are aged or with a precarious major system of communication ways, the educational fund (small villages affected by localities within this class have a socio-eco- illiteracy), etc. nomic profi le dominated by patriarchal relation functions where balance is subordinated The fl ows are quasi-absent, intermittent, to the effi ciency degree of agrarian exploita- and mono-directed, having as purpose per- tions. manent population displacements towards the centre and, more rarely, towards other Repulsive rural spaces, categories of peripheries. The result of these unequal relations is the isolation, accentuated belonging to neglected until territorial claustration and the socio-spa- peripheries tial injustice expressed through demographic compression reproduced until the fi nal phase The limitation of the intra-class diversity, – depopulation. noticeable by summing up the statistical subjects towards the clusters with negative devi- Marked by autarchism and by socio-pro- ations to all the variables taken into account, fessional mono-chromatics, these villages indicates that these localities are deprived in respond to a sole conditioning: they are re- relation to all categories of criteria comprised pulsive. in the analysis. They are the following: the accessibility to the major system of communi- In what follows, the model is tested on a cation ways is defective, the population does space situated in the north of the analyzed not have elementary commodities (secondary region: the area framed by the towns of Bot-

Figure N° 7 Model of the peripheral territorial structures in Moldavia. Case study: the area Botosani – Dorohoi - Saveni

Source: author 208 R EVISTA DE GEOGRAFÍA NORTE GRANDE

oşani, Dorohoi and Săveni (Botoşani County). the low and average level services, the up- The quantization of the 5 classes was done per level services introducing intra-class depending on the values of the community differentiations, at the upper level of the development index, and the conclusions of hierarchy. the case study are focused on the isolated rural spaces (Figure N° 7). Thus, the presence of primary, secondary and high-school educational services, Placed outside the modernization/ ur- of proximity sanitary services such as medi- banization processes of the rural settings, cal-social units and town hospitals, of prox- repulsive peripheral spaces are isolated areas, imity banking services provided by banking marking potentially defi cient accessibilities agencies, of small industrial and commercial towards all categories of services and com- units, as well as the elementary commercial modities analyzed. The discontinuous/ syn- structures necessary to ensure a minimum copate unfolding of these spaces responds profit of minifundio agrarian exploitations, to physical laws similar to magnetic and/ is more than enough to eliminate the short- or gravitational fi elds, such that most of the comings created by the reduced accessibility perimeters of the repulsive rural spaces are to higher education services, to ultra-special- marked by the territorial rules governing the ized sanitary services or to brokering fi nan- emergence of interstitial/residual spaces: cial-banking services, to MLM services or to industries capitalizing an important know- - they develop beyond the gravitational how (high-tech industry). fi eld created by the city; - the distance from the city is dictated by 2. The community development of rural sett- the size and functions of the urban centre; lements grows depending on the proximi- small towns allow looser limits, while big ty to the city. cities force the contraction of these limits towards the core of the territory; The size, rank, and functions of this city - they avoid the higher-rank communication prevail on the polarization range: a high and ways (European road, national road); equidistant polarization range will impose - they can invade intermediary spaces if the a slow gradient of diminishing the value of latter are young, not-evolved or intermittent; community development. On the contrary, a - they are differentiated from one another low and unequal polarization range will im- in terms of community development by pose a rapid gradient of deterioration in the size; the lowest community development community development index, on preferen- indices appear within the largest repulsive tial directions. rural spaces. 3. The community development reacts to the Final considerations mass effect.

The spatial analysis based upon the Two rural localities belonging to the same trans-scalar approach, using the principles of urban fi eld or to the same commune, situated the multicriteria classifi cation of highly com- at the same distance-time to the polarizing plex territorial series, has the shortcoming of city/commune centre and meeting the same a lack of visibility, seemingly concerning the general accessibility conditions, will be diffi nal indices, thus affecting the reading quali- ferentiated depending on their mass. ty and the relations among the indicators. The larger locality (demographically This is why we need to come up with speaking) will have a higher gravitational essential, conclusive ideas, for a synthetic force, being capable of extracting certain coagulation of the laws governing the territo- functional energies from the commune centre. rial variation of the community development Moreover, in the introvert relation to itself, this index (Figure N° 8): locality can provide, at least in theory, several types of socio-professional commodities; the 1. The community development of the loca- concurrence itself and the social production lities is dependent on the accessibility to are higher than in the case of small localities. A METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING POVERTY IN MOLDAVIA (ROMANIA) 209

4. The community development is a distan- a high departmental accessibility to the ser- ce-time relation describing the interaction vices provided by the departmental centre, probability between rural settlements and by other big cities within the department or the major system of roads of an area/cou- the department in the vicinity. Similarly, the ntry isolation within the department is reduced by a high regional accessibility, imposed by The presence of non-modernized road the proximity to national or European road infrastructures may have a capital role in infrastructures, to regional urban centres, etc. worsening the community poverty of a rural Or, in the same manner, regional isolation is settlement. The most visible effect is that of ignored if there is high macro-regional or na- day trips for work or trips to commercialize tional accessibility. the surplus of agrarian exploitation. 6. The community development is the effect The dominant axes of the territorial tis- of cumulating negative/positive percep- sue always impose a faster development tions and feelings of the population on rhythm, thus favouring the population sta- a certain area; the result of these mental bility through the space contraction process, pictures is the “territorial marking”. due to an increase in the movement speed towards the polarizing centres and to the The development may be the result of spatial/temporal, economic/political, social/ inculcated conclusions regarding certain cultural accessibility of rural localities. territories, seen as repulsive and transmitting repulsiveness. It is very hard to assess the 5. The community development is the trans- extent to which this may inﬂ uence the deci- scalar sum of speciﬁ c accessibilities sion of certain investors to use their capital there or the degree to which these esoteric The isolation within an administrative reasons may provoke a discomfort to the structure respects the transitivity law. The communities living in/consuming within this isolation within the commune is annulled by space.

Figure N° 8 Model of community development interdependencies

Source: author 210 R EVISTA DE GEOGRAFÍA NORTE GRANDE

Whatever the scale of analysis or the re- DALY, M. Women and poverty. Dublin: lationships established with the territory, the Attic Press/Combat Poverty Agency, 1989. village remains a fragile element of the human settlements system. DELALANDE, L. & PAQUETTE, C. El impacto de las microfi nanzas en la reduccion Although the processes of globalization de la vulnerabilidad. Trace, 2007, N° 52, p. and glocalization contaminated peripheral 63-77. societies through the expansion of urban-type behaviour, rural communities subscribe to de- DUPUY, G. Lùrbanisme des reseaux, theo- pendency relations towards the dichotomous ries et methodes. Paris: Ed. Armand Collin, 1991. coordinator - the city. EDITIONS BREAL. Dictionnaire de scienc- The connections and determinations, es économiques & sociales. Rosny: Editions which operate between rural and urban set- Breal, 2002. tlements, have a strong effect on the dynamic of the socio-spatial systems whose function ESPING-ANDERSEN G. The Three Worlds depends on the quantity and quality of ener- of Welafare Capitalism. Ney Jersey: Princeton gy unloaded through spatial interaction and University Press, 1990. whose fi nal product is community development. FLORES, M. y RELLO, F. Capital social: virtudes y limitaciones. Santiago de Chile: References CEPAL, 2003.

ANSELIN, L. Local indicators of spatial GADREY, J. De la croissance au devel- association – LISA. Geographical Analysis, oppment: quels indicatuers alternatifs? Lille: 1995, N° 27, p. 93–115. Universite Lillle, 2002.

ARENAS, F.; QUENSE, J. y SALAZAR, A. GADREY, J. & JANY-CATRICE, F. Les in- El aislamiento como desafío para el orde- dicateurs de richesse et de développement. namiento territorial. El caso de las comunas Un bilan international en vue d’une initiative de Chile. Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, française. Lille: Rapport de recherche pour la 1999, N° 26, p. 105-111. DARES, 2003. ATKINSON, A.B.; CANTILLON, B.; MAR- GOSCHIN, Z. & PARLOG, C. Ierarhizarea LIER, E. & NOLAN, B. Social Indicators - The multicriterială a regiunilor din România folos- EU and Social Inclusion. Oxford: Oxford Uni- ind metoda distanţelor relative. Bucureşti: Ed. versity Press, 2002. Economică, 2004. CASPIS (Comisia Anti-Sărăcie şi Promo- varea Incluziunii Sociale). Dinamica sărăciei HENRÍQUEZ, C. y AZÓCAR, G. Patrones şi a săraciei severe în perioada 1995-2005. de crecimiento en ciudades intermedias Disponible en internet: http://www.caspis.ro/ chilenas y su impacto en la sustentabilidad urbana. En: BELTRÃO, M.E. Cidades Médias: CHAVES, A.; SANCHEZ, S.; SCHOR, S. & Espaços em transição. Sao Paulo: Editora Ex- TESLIUC, E. Financial markets, Credit Constraints pressão Popular, 2007, p. 283-312. and Investment in Rural Romania. Washington: World Bank Technical Papers, 2001. HERBERT, S. Models of Bounded Rational- ity. Cambridge, MIT Press, 1997. CHIRAN, A. Piaţa produselor agricole şi agroalimentare - abordare teoretică şi prac- JAZAIRY, I.; ALAMGIR, M. & PANUCCIO, tică. Bucureşti: Ed. Ceres, 2004. T. The state of world rural poverty. London: IFAD, 1995. COLEMAN, J. Social capital in the creation the human capital. American Journal of KATZMAN, R. y FILGUEIRA, C. Vulnerabi- Sociology, 1988, N° 94, p. 95-121. lidad, Activos y Exclusión Social en Argentina A METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING POVERTY IN MOLDAVIA (ROMANIA) 211

y Uruguay. Santiago de Chile: OIT-Fundacion PUTMAN, R.D. The Prosperous Communi- Ford, 1999. ty: Social Capital and Public life. The Ameri- can Prospect, 1993, Nº 13, p. 35-42. LOK-DESALLIEN, R. Poverty proﬁ les: in- terpreting the data. New York: UN Social De- RAWLS, J. A theory of justice. Cambridge: velopment and Poverty Elimination Division, Harvard University Press, 1971. 2004. REYNAUD, A. Société, espace et justice. MACK, J. & LANSLEY, S. Poor Britain. Inégalités régionales et justice socio-spatiale. London: George Allen & Unwin Australia Pty Paris: PUF, 1981. Ltd, 1985. SEN, A. Poor, relatively speaking. Oxford MICHEL, A. Dictionnaire de la Sociologie. Economic Papers, 1983, Vol. 35, Nº 1, p. Paris: Encyclopedia universalis, 1998. 153-169.

MINUJIN, A.; DELAMONICA, E.; DAVID- SEN, A. Commodities and Capabilities. ZIUK, A. & GONZÁLEZ, E.D. The deﬁ nition London: Cambridge University Press, 1999. of child poverty: a discussion of concepts and measurements. Environment & Urbanization, SIMON, H. Models of Bounded Rationali- 2006, Vol. 18, Nº 2, p. 481- 500. ty. Cambridge: Mit Press, 1997.

NELEA MIHAI, N., Caracterizarea calităţii SMEEDING, T.; O’HIGGINS, M. & RAIN- vieţii în România prin prisma statisticii multi- WATER, L. (editors). Poverty, inequality and dimensionale. Bucureşti: Ed. ASE, 2004. income distribution in comparative perspective. Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheat- NOLAN, B. & WHELAN, C.T. Multidimen- sheaf, 1990. sionality of Poverty and Social Exclusion. In: JENKINS, S.J. & MICKLEWRIGHT, J. (editors). SPICKER, P., ÁLVAREZ LEGUIZAMON, S. Inequality and Poverty Re-examined. Oxford: y GORDON, D. Pobreza: Un glosario interna- Oxford University Press, 2007, p. 146–65. cional. Buenos Aires: Consejo Latinoamerica- no de Ciencias Sociales, 2010. PAUGAM, S. La disqualifi cation sociale. Essai sur la nouvelle pauvreté. Paris: Presses TOWNSEND, P., GORDON, D. What is Universitaires de France, 1997. enough? New evidence on poverty allowing the defi nition of a minimum benefi t. In: AD- PELLEN, M. Penser les espaces intermedi- LER, M.; BELL, C.; CLASEN, J. & SINFIELD, aires. Lyon: Calenda, 2009. A. (editors). The sociology of social security. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 1991. PUMAIN, D. & SAINT-JULIEN, T. Les interactions spatiales. Paris: Ed. Armand Collin, VOINEAGU, V. & FURTUNA, F. Analiza 2001. factorială a fenomenelor social-economice în profi l regional. Bucureşti: Ed. Aramis, 2002.