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2021 Year Ahead
2021 YEAR AHEAD Claudio Brocado Anthony Brocado January 29, 2021 1 2020 turned out to be quite unusual. What may the year ahead and beyond bring? As the year got started, the consensus was that a strong 2019 for equities would be followed by a positive first half, after which meaningful volatility would kick in due to the US presidential election. In the spirit of our prefer- ence for a contrarian stance, we had expected somewhat the opposite: some profit-taking in the first half of 2020, followed by a rally that would result in a positive balance at year-end. But in the way of the markets – which always tend to catch the largest number of participants off guard – we had what some would argue was one of the strangest years in recent memory. 2 2020 turned out to be a very eventful year. The global virus crisis (GVC) brought about by the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic was something no serious market observer had anticipated as 2020 got started. Volatility had been all but nonexistent early in what we call ‘the new 20s’, which had led us to expect the few remaining volatile asset classes, such as cryptocurrencies, to benefit from the search for more extreme price swings. We had expected volatilities across asset classes to show some convergence. The markets delivered, but not in the direction we had expected. Volatilities surged higher across many assets, with the CBOE volatility index (VIX) reaching some of the highest readings in many years. As it became clear that what was commonly called the novel coronavirus would bring about a pandemic as it spread to the remotest corners of the world at record speeds, the markets feared the worst. -
Country Report Iran May 2017
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on November 13th 2017 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. -
The 2021 Iran Presidential Elections: Prospects and Expectations
INFO PACK The 2021 Iran Presidential Elections: Prospects and Expectations Fatih Şemsettin Işık INFO PACK The 2021 Iran Presidential Elections: Prospects and Expectations Fatih Şemsettin Işık The 2021 Iran Presidential Elections: Prospects and Expectations © TRT WORLD RESEARCH CENTRE ALL RIGHTS RESERVED PUBLISHER TRT WORLD RESEARCH CENTRE June 2021 WRITTEN BY Fatih Şemsettin Işık PHOTO CREDIT ANADOLU AGENCY TRT WORLD İSTANBUL AHMET ADNAN SAYGUN STREET NO:83 34347 ULUS, BEŞİKTAŞ İSTANBUL / TURKEY TRT WORLD LONDON 200 GRAYS INN ROAD, WC1X 8XZ LONDON / UNITED KINGDOM TRT WORLD WASHINGTON D.C. 1819 L STREET NW SUITE, 700 20036 WASHINGTON DC / UNITED STATES www.trtworld.com researchcentre.trtworld.com The opinions expressed in this Info Pack represent the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the TRT World Research Centre. 4 The 2021 Iran Presidential Elections: Prospects and Expectations Introduction n June 18, Iran is scheduled to hold After eight years of Hassan Rouhani as president, presidential elections following Has- Iran will elect a new president on June 18, 2021. Amid san Rouhani’s eight year tenure. With renewed nuclear talks with the United States in Vien- the ongoing nuclear talks in Vienna na and the sanctions-related economic deterioration, and the country’s deteriorating eco- the significance of these elections is heightened. O Even though presidential authority is relatively limit- nomic situation the significance of these elections are magnified. This info-pack explores the contours ed compared to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, of the political dynamics in Iran ahead of the June 18 the presidential office is nonetheless significant. -
Syria's War Within the War Expected to Continue Despite Downing Of
Issue 174, Year 4 September 23, 2018 UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com EU €2.50 Interview Saudi writer Tripoli Ahmed al-Duwaihi spinning on prospects out of control of modernity Page 22 Page 10 Syria’s war within the war expected to continue despite downing of Russian plane ► Israel says its F-16 fighter jets attacked a facility in northern Syria to prevent “systems to manufacture accurate and lethal weapons” from being “transferred on behalf of Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.” Thomas Seibert Russia said Syrian air-defence sys- tems shot the plane down shortly after Israeli jets hit the area and Istanbul accused Israel of creating the dan- gerous conditions by failing to srael could face some limits give sufficient notice. The Russian on its ability to strike Iranian Embassy in Tel Aviv spoke of “irre- targets in Syria following the sponsible and unfriendly actions” I downing of a Russian mili- by the Israeli Air Force. tary plane but is unlikely to suf- In 2015, the Kremlin put rela- fer a crippling setback for its war tions with Turkey into the deep within the war in the neighbour- freeze for a year after the Turkish ing country. Air Force shot down a Russian mil- To contain the political and mili- itary plane on the Syrian border. tary fallout from the September 17 Russia, however, shows no inten- incident over northern Syria, Isra- tion of doing the same with Israel el sent its air force chief, Amikam after the loss of the IL-20. Norkin, to Moscow. He briefed Israel says its F-16 fighter jets at- Russian officials on the initial Is- tacked a facility in northern Syria raeli investigation into the crash in to prevent “systems to manufac- which a Russian IL-20 surveillance ture accurate and lethal weapons” Clashes ahead. -
Iran 2012 Human Rights Report
IRAN 2012 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Islamic Republic of Iran is a theocratic republic established after the 1979 adoption of a constitution by popular referendum. The constitution, amended in 1989, created a political system based on the concept in Shia Islam of velayat-e faqih, the “guardianship of the jurist” or “rule by the jurisprudent.” Shia clergy and political leaders vetted by the clergy, many of which are increasingly associated with the country’s security forces, dominate key power structures. The “leader of the revolution” (or supreme leader) is chosen by a popularly elected body of 86 clerics, the Assembly of Experts, and directly controls the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of government, as well as the armed forces. The supreme leader also indirectly controls internal security forces and other key institutions. Since 1989 the supreme leader has been Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The March 2 legislative elections for the 290-seat Islamic Consultative Assembly were generally considered neither free nor fair. Civilian authorities failed at times to maintain effective control over the security forces. The government continued its crackdown on civil society, which intensified after the disputed 2009 presidential elections. The government and its security forces pressured, intimidated, and arrested journalists, students, lawyers, artists, women, ethnic and religious activists, and members of their families. The judiciary continued to harshly punish, imprison, or detain without charges human rights activists, members of the political opposition, and persons linked to reform movements. The government significantly increased its surveillance and monitoring of citizens’ online activities by blocking or filtering content and detaining numerous Internet users for content posted online. -
Overlapping Calculations and Crises Facing Iran's Ahmadinejad Artical
Artical Name : Overlapping Calculations and Crises Facing Iran¶s Ahmadinejad Artical Subject : Overlapping Calculations and Crises Facing Iran¶s Ahmadinejad Publish Date: 15/11/2017 Auther Name: Future for Advanced Research and Studies Subject : Former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is under pressure from his political rivals, and the conservative fundamentalists in particular. His critics accused him of corruption and mismanagement and now call for his removal from the Expediency Discernment Council that, as per the constitution, sets the state¶s higher policies and advises the Supreme Leader in disputes over legislation between the parliament and the Guardian Council of the Constitution. The Expediency Discernment Council is also charged with supervising parliament affairs and qualifying candidates for elections. Despite escalating disagreement between Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that started during his first term (2005-2013), the regime is yet to take strict measures against the former president. The reason is that the regime wants to avoid a new political crisis that involves the presidency and the powers of the president, which is a cause of chronic tensions between the current president Rouhani and the Supreme Leader Khamenei. However, this does not negate the fact that the regime would not exploit the charges against Ahmadinejad if he continues to play a political role that may affect the political balance of power and by extension its calculations. Thus the charges represent a leverage to which it resorts to if it deems it necessary. Simultaneous PressuresPressure on Ahmadinejad started to further mount in October 2017 when the General Inspection Organization announced that he had illegally spent more than US$1.3 billion of Iran¶s oil income. -
Post-Vote Iran: Giving Engagement a Chance Italian Institute for International Political Studie
EU-Iran Relations Building Bridges in Stormy Waters Parsi, Rouzbeh Published in: Post-Vote Iran 2017 Document Version: Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Parsi, R. (2017). EU-Iran Relations: Building Bridges in Stormy Waters. In A. Perteghella, & P. Magri (Eds.), Post-Vote Iran: Giving engagement a chance Italian Institute for International Political Studie. Total number of authors: 1 General rights Unless other specific re-use rights are stated the following general rights apply: Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Read more about Creative commons licenses: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. LUND UNIVERSITY PO Box 117 221 00 Lund +46 46-222 00 00 A. Plebani AFTER MOSUL, RE-INVENTING IRAQ A. Plebani PAOLO MAGRI Ferit dem ditis sunt aperori apicium everuptatet, nobitatur sun- tem adio. Ut volor aut facia parunt qui officati quid qui ut lab idelessequi tem hicab ium hicit, omnissunt ad que voluptur si Senior occus et lam quo elignim odissim hilluptas doloreium sinvenda nobis et dolluptat faciurio. -
Why Did Ahmadinejad Defy Khamenei's : ΩϭοϭϣϟϠγ "Advise"? Why Did Ahmadinejad Defy Khamenei's : ΩϭοϭϣϟϤϭϧϋ "Advise"? 18/04/2017 : ΈηϧϟΦϳέύη
Why Did Ahmadinejad Defy Khamenei's : ωϭοϭϣϟϡγ "Advise"? Why Did Ahmadinejad Defy Khamenei's : ωϭοϭϣϟϥϭϧϋ "Advise"? 18/04/2017 : έηϧϟΦϳέΎΗ ΔϣΩϘΗϣϟΕΎγέΩϟϭΙΎΣΑϸϟϝΑϘΗγϣϟίϛέϣ : ΏΗΎϛϟϡγ : ωϭοϭϣϟ 9/26/2021 6:53:48 PM 1 / 2 The latest move by Iranian former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in which he announced his candidacy for the presidential elections, due on May 19, 2017, will likely confuse calculations by Iranian political forces. These forces are currently exerting diligent efforts to unify their ranks and increase their candidates' chances of winning the upcoming elections.Without a doubt, the confusion is not solely caused by Ahmadinejad's candidacy and its resulting re-arrangement of the candidate mapping positions. This move comes following obvious polarization between the reformists backing President Hassan Rouhani- who himself seeks a second term in the same elections- and the fundamentalist conservatives-who appear to be attempting to avoid a recurrence of the their bid in the 2013 elections where votes were scattered between them, leading to Rouhani's sweeping win from the first round. Another reason is that Ahmadinejad's move defies the will of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who had "advised" the former president not run in the elections, after Ahmadinejad launched an early election campaign in a number of Iranian provinces and cities. This defiance is an unprecedented step never taken by any Iranian politician.Hidden GoalsIt can be said that Ahmadinejad's move is no more than a political maneuver through which he seeks to achieve hidden goals, the most important of which is possibly not the former president's bid to win next month's elections and assume once again his old office. -
Iran: an Elite at War Written by Nasrin Alavi
Iran: an elite at war Written by Nasrin Alavi This PDF is auto-generated for reference only. As such, it may contain some conversion errors and/or missing information. For all formal use please refer to the official version on the website, as linked below. Iran: an elite at war https://www.e-ir.info/2011/05/31/iran-an-elite-at-war/ NASRIN ALAVI, MAY 31 2011 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s ideological patron Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi says of him: “I am more than 90% certain that he has been bewitched”. He attributes this dark work to Ahmadinejad’s former chief-of-staff and closest aide Esfandiar-Rahim Mashaei, whom he accuses of engaging “deviants, devils and evil spirits” to cast a spell over Iran’s president. Welcome to the strange, occult world of the Islamic Republic of Iran. But what could be called Iran’s “genie-gate” affair, in a twist on the signifier of every political scandal since Watergate, is – for all the talk of ghouls and jinns – at its heart a classic elite political showdown. Its immediate background is the power-struggle between the Islamic Republic of Iran’s two most senior figures that began in April 2011, now curdling into something more bizarre and perhaps more dangerous for the regime – and certainly for its embattled president. The originating cause of the dispute – the sacking of Iran’s intelligence minister by the president, followed by his swift reinstatement on the orders of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – provoked Ahmadinejad into an eleven- day refusal to appear in public or undertake any public duties. -
Country of Origin Information Report Iran
COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION REPORT IRAN 26 JANUARY 2010 UK Border Agency COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION SERVICE 26 JANUARY 2010 IRAN Contents Preface Latest News EVENTS IN IRAN FROM 9 DECEMBER 2009 TO 26 JANUARY 2010 REPORTS ON IRAN PUBLISHED OR ACCESSED BETWEEN 9 DECEMBER 2009 AND 26 JANUARY 2010 Paragraphs Background Information 1. GEOGRAPHY ....................................................................................... 1.01 Maps ............................................................................................ 1.04 Iran........................................................................................... 1.04 Tehran ..................................................................................... 1.05 Calendar ...................................................................................... 1.06 Public holidays ........................................................................... 1.07 2. ECONOMY ........................................................................................... 2.01 3. HISTORY ............................................................................................. 3.01 Pre 1979....................................................................................... 3.01 From 1979 to 1999 ...................................................................... 3.04 From 2000 to 2008 ...................................................................... 3.10 Student unrest.......................................................................... 3.15 Parliamentary elections -
CISD Yearbook of Global Studies
CISD Yearbook of Global Studies Volume 6 August 2019 0 CISD Yearbook of Global Studies Volume 6 August 2019 The Nullification of the 2017 Presidential Election in Kenya – Advancing the Rule of Law? A Legal and Political Analysis Liza Micke 2 Africa-EU Relations: A Partnership of Equals? Angelique Umugwaneza 39 Grey Zones of Law and War: Assessing the Applicability of the Principle of Distinction to Cyber-Warfare Isabella Steel 68 Reassessing Success and Failure of Social Movements: the 2014 Hong Kong Umbrella Movement Florence Woodrow 115 Most Things Are North: Norwegian identity in foreign policy discourse and cooperation with Russia in the Artic Linn Vardheim 155 Changing Perceptions and Ideology: the Role of Epistemic Communities of Museum Professionals in Cultural Diplomacy Eloisa Romani 191 1 The Nullification of the 2017 Presidential Election in Kenya – Advancing the Rule of Law? A Legal and Political Analysis Liza Micke Abstract: This dissertation analyses whether Raila Odinga v IEBC 2017, the judgement with which the Supreme Court nullified the result of the 2017 Presidential Election in Kenya, advanced the rule of law in the country. Raila Odinga v IEBC 2017 was the second judgement on a petition challenging the result of a Presidential Election – Raila Odinga v IEBC 2013, with which the result of the 2013 Presidential Election was upheld, beingthe first – since the promulgation of the Constitution, 2010. It was also the second opportunity for the judiciary to implement the constitutional dispensation established under the Constitution, 2010, thereby, advancing the rule of law in the country, after it had failed to do so in Raila Odinga v IEBC 2013. -
Provisional List of Delegations to the United Nations Conference on Sustanable Development Rio+20 I Member States
PROVISIONAL LIST OF DELEGATIONS TO THE UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON SUSTANABLE DEVELOPMENT RIO+20 I MEMBER STATES AFGHANISTAN H.E. Mr. Zalmai Rassoul, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Representatives H.E. Mr. Wais Ahmad Barmak, Minister of Rural Rehabilitation and Development H.E. Mr. Mohammad Asif Rahimi, Minister of Agriculture, Irrigation and Animal Husbandry H.E. Prince Mustapha Zahir, President of National Environment Protection Agency H.E. Mr. Jawed Ludin, Deputy Foreign Minister H.E. Sham Lal Batijah, Senior Economic Adviser to the President H.E. Mr. Zahir Tanin, Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations Mr. Mohammad Erfani Ayoob, Director General, United Nations and International Conferences Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mr. Ershad Ahmadi, Director General of Fifth Political Department Mr. Janan Mosazai, Spokesperson, Ministry for Foreign Affairs Mr. Enayetullah Madani, Permanent Mission of Afghanistan to the UN Mr. Aziz Ahmad Noorzad, Deputy Chief of Protocol, Ministry for Foreign Affairs Ms. Kwaga Kakar, Adviser to the Foreign Minister Ms. Ghazaal Habibyar, Director General of Policies, Ministry of Mine Mr. Wahidullah Waissi, Adviser to the Deputy Foreign Minister 2 ALBANIA H.E. Mr. Fatmir Mediu, Minister for Environment, Forests and Water Administration of the Republic of Albania Representatives H.E. Mr. Ferit Hoxha, Ambassador Permanent Representative to the United Nations H.E. Mrs. Tajiana Gjonaj, Ambassador to Brazil Mr. Oerd Bylykbashi, Chief of Cabinet of the Prime Minister Mr. Glori Husi, Adviser to the Prime Minister Mr. Abdon de Paula, Honorary Consul to Rio de Janeiro Mr. Thomas Amaral Neves, Honorary Consul to São Paulo Mr.